(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “An existential threat to Israel could draw American attention away from the Ukrainian cause, possibly smoothing a path toward a Russian triumph in Europe,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write in War on the Rocks. NYT editors raise a related concern, warning that “the violence in Israel may also strengthen calls to cut military aid to Ukraine.” […]
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“… Four months of brutal fighting and steep losses have not yielded the results … Kyiv and … Western backers hoped for. Despite some Ukrainian progress in breaking through dense Russian defenses, fears of a frozen conflict — and crumbling international support — loom. … [A] senior NATO official lamented ‘Monday morning quarterbacking’ … ‘It’s easy for you to sit […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Putin has shot down proposals to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use in Russia’s doctrinal documents, but called for Russia to de-ratify the CTBT. When asked by Sergei Karaganov at the Valdai Club meeting on Oct. 5 whether Russia should “modify the doctrine on using nuclear weapons, lowering the nuclear threshold,” Putin said: “[T]here […]
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“It could join the EU’s awkward squad if Robert Fico forms a government.” “Robert Fico … fell from power in 2018 after the murder of a journalist investigating high-level corruption, which led to mass protests. Now he looks set to lead [Slovakia] … again. … A [] Fico-led government can be expected to ally itself in the [EU]and NATO with […]
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“Polish experts [reportedly] have confirmed that the missile that killed two people at a grain facility in [the village of Przewodow in] southern Poland in November was fired by Ukraine …. The explosion … fueled fears that the war in Ukraine could spiral into a wider conflict … triggering [NATO’s] mutual defense clause, but at the time Warsaw and NATO […]
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(RAND – rand.org – Bryan Frederick, Mark Cozad, Alexandra Stark – Sept. 21, 2023) [Report home page (HTML) – PDF of full report (108 pages)] “… Further Russian escalation has likely been restrained by three main factors … (1) … NATO military capabilities and reactions, (2) concern for broader international reactions, particularly … China’s … (3) … Russian perception that […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Sept. 22, 2023) 7 Things to Know Ukraine intends to continue its counteroffensive through the autumn and into the winter, according to remarks made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley this week. “The fight right now still has plenty of fighting weather left,” according to Gen. Milley. At the […]
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“[NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg] asserted … [Thursday] that weakening Russia in Ukraine could allow the United States to intensify … efforts … countering China. … Stoltenberg said … the primary goal of his visit [to New York during a UN General Assembly meeting] ‘[was] to mobilize support for Ukraine.’ A victory for Kyiv … resisting the war launched by Moscow […]
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“… Zelensky was back in town …. [With] a path to ultimate victory … seem[ing] increasingly distant. … Biden unveiled yet another U.S. [Ukrainian] aid package … worth $325 million … [reportedly] expected to include more cluster munitions and air defense equipment … the second time the U.S. has provided the controversial weapon to Kyiv. … [Meanwhile] national security adviser […]
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“There is no alternative to slowly and methodically reducing Russian forces in Ukraine.” “… The idea that there is a shortcut to victory raises expectations for a quick end to the carnage that Ukraine is unlikely to fulfill. After more than 18 months of grinding, attritional war, it should be obvious that there are no miracle weapons and that there […]
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“[Ukrainian foreign minister] Dmytro Kuleba … is a smooth[, unruffled] and affable diplomat …. But on August 31st his patience snapped. ‘Criticising the slow pace of the counter-offensive equals … spitting into the face of the Ukrainian soldier who sacrifices his life every day,’ he told journalists. ‘I would recommend all critics to shut up, come to Ukraine and try […]
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“… New developments … may threaten [a previous] dynamic. Russia’s campaign against Ukrainian grain infrastructure and surging Ukrainian attacks within Russia threaten to expand the geographical scope of conflict. The mutiny and subsequent death of Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin suggest that Russia’s domestic political situation is dynamic and could shift in ways that may encourage Putin to escalate. Ukraine’s […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials cited by NYT. “With revenue from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and ministry of defense have been able to smuggle in the microelectronics and other Western materials […]
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“… Last year, the 27-nation [EU] … declared Ukraine an official candidate for admission. [European] [p]olicymakers … are now butting heads over whether to set a [membership] timetable …. Some are pushing for 2030 … others suggest an association short of full membership. An array of complex problems would need to be ironed out …. [Ukraine] would be by far […]
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“It wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only frigates while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do.” “… [S]tation[ing] U.S. troops in Poland … would legitimate and perpetuate the irresponsible Polish policy that wastes money on fancy helicopters and target-only frigates in the Baltic Sea, while not doing what responsible countries near Russia must do. That is, to […]
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“The war in Ukraine is being waged on the battlefield but also globally … [T]he latter theater might be the more decisive … the financial and commercial terrain where the West’s sanctions have been deployed … [T]he effort to subvert Russia’s economy might eventually do more to end the war than any new weapons system or fresh breakthrough along the […]
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“Ukraine’s new defense minister, Rustem Umerov, has called on foreign allies to provide ‘heavy weaponry, heavy weaponry and, again, heavy weaponry’ …. On Friday, Umerov told the Yalta European Strategy summit in Kyiv that Ukraine is ‘grateful’ for … Western support … but warned that Kyiv’s forces will need more to overcome … ‘big challenges’ … driving Russian troops out […]
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7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]
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“The chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee said Friday [that regarding] a partnership between the Russian and Chinese leaders … ‘We have never seen a threat this large scale to Europe and the Pacific … since World War II.’ An alliance between … Xi Jinping and … Putin ‘provides a very big challenge I think for the free […]
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“Weapons shortages, domestic political pressures hamper Western efforts.” “The [U.S.] and … European allies are laying plans for long-term military assistance to Ukraine to ensure Russia won’t be able to win on the battlefield and persuade the Kremlin that Western support … won’t waver. The effort, building on [G7] commitments … on the sidelines of … [July’s NATO] summit … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s current counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, thus, remaining unable to disrupt the land bridge from Russia to Crimea, WP reported, citing “people familiar with the classified forecast.” The assessment is based on Russia’s proficiency in defending occupied territory, which […]
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“Recommendations Adopt more-specific ways of describing adversary actions than ‘malign influence.’ Tailored deterrence strategies require a more precise definition …. Align U.S. forward presence to reinforce clear deterrence logics …. Clarify the logic of bomber task force and naval presence missions to ensure that the deployments strengthen deterrence …. Consider cost in the implementation of force employment concepts, differentiating between […]
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“[From July 12, 2023:] [NATO] leaders said they were removing obstacles on Ukraine’s membership path so that it can join more quickly once the war with Russia is over. For many, that argument gives Russia’s president a pretext to prolong the war, which … Putin ostensibly launched to keep Ukraine from joining NATO. But if Ukraine joins NATO in the […]
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“… NATO enlargement isn’t the cause of … Putin’s full-scale war against Ukraine. But Putin’s aggression is the primary cause of NATO taking Ukrainian membership more seriously, and it led Finland and Sweden to do something that was (highly) unlikely until February 2022: to seek to join the alliance. … NATO enlargement provided for greater security and stability across Central […]
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6 Things to Know In the past month of fighting Russian armed forces made a net gain of 14 square miles, according to the estimate by the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force. Their research shows that the period saw Russian forces gain 43 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine’s net gain was 29 square miles, according to the Aug. 1, 2023 issue […]
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“… In the days before a Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg on July 27th, … Putin published an article … to justify why he has abandoned the grain deal …. Promising to make up the shortfall, he wrote that the ‘so-called’ deal solely enriched Western businesses, and that promises to exempt Russian exports from sanctions had been broken. Pretty much […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know It is “way too early” to judge the Ukrainian offensive a failure, said U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, adding that the war “is going to be long, it’s going be hard, it’s going be bloody.” Milley said the biggest challenge for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is getting through […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Having seen one-fifth of the weaponry and armor they’ve sent to the battlefield damaged or destroyed in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive, Ukrainian commanders took a pause to rethink their strategy, NYT reported on July 15, citing Western officials. So far, the Ukrainians “taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach […]
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“… JAKE SULLIVAN: … I’m not sure we could have said it more clearly than the 31 allies said in the NATO communique … ‘Ukraine’s future will be in NATO.’ Period. Full stop. That was a single clear sentence. … not subject to negotiation with any country, including Russia. … a subject only for the allies and for Ukraine. … […]
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“… [NATO] leaders … affirm[ed] … ‘Ukraine’s future is in NATO’ … [declaring] ‘[w]e will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met’ …. [Meanwhile] G7 countries … issued a joint declaration setting out general principles on … ‘enduring’ support for Ukraine. … work[ing] towards ‘specific, bilateral, […]
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“… Medvedev … has warned that Moscow’s confrontation with the West will last decades and that its conflict with Ukraine could become permanent. Medvedev[, former Russian president and now] deputy head of … [Russia’s] Security Council, … has emerged as one of Russia’s most outspoken hawks since Moscow launched what it called a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine last year. […]
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“… At [the] NATO summit, the West must decide how much a victory over Putin is worth and finally get serious about delivering urgently needed weapons systems. … The Ukrainians have thus far fallen far short of the goals they set for their counteroffensive. They don’t have the equipment they need for a rapid breakthrough in the southeast … lack[ing] […]
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“… [Prigozhin’s] short-lived mutiny … reminded the world that autocrats appear to be stable — until they are not. As NATO leaders convene … they will focus on the immediate challenge of the Russia-Ukraine war …. [b]ut the Western alliance will inevitably confront having to deal with a less stable nuclear-armed Russia. NATO has returned to its original mission of […]
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“… At a time when Washington already faces serious resource demands both at home and in Asia, it risks being backed into a corner: with Ukraine in NATO, Washington will need to divert resources from other priorities, … or accept increased risk along … a dramatically expanded eastern front. … [C]osts could balloon because of the perverse incentives that offering […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russian intelligence services may have known in advance of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plan to stage a mutiny, but it nonetheless materialized to pose the greatest military and security threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule since the end of the second Chechen war. The mutiny itself lasted only 36 hours, never spread to Moscow and ended with its chief […]
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“… Biden was blunt … about Ukraine’s chances of joining NATO. ‘I’m not going to make it easier,’ he declared. Despite its bold fight against Russia, the country still has to prove itself: ‘Does it meet all the standards every other nation in NATO does?’ Joining the alliance … ‘is not automatic.’ America … finds itself unusually isolated in the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]
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“… Authoritarian leaders rarely lose power while still waging a war they initiated. … [and] authoritarian regimes most often survive in the wake of the departure of longtime leaders … [W]ere Putin to die … or be removed by insiders, the regime would … likely endure …. One development … could spark more substantive change in Russia: a Ukrainian victory. […]
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“Next month’s meeting of Western allies will leave the war-torn country mostly empty-handed.” “… [In] 2008 … NATO officially welcomed Ukraine’s aspirations for membership …. Now, after a full-scale Russian invasion, [Ukraine] is being asked to wait longer, without a timeline …. [T]he alliance … offers [Ukraine] perhaps the only chance at dodging future Russian attacks on its sovereignty. … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]
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“Privately, U.S. and European officials concede that pushing all of Russia’s forces out of occupied Ukrainian land is highly unlikely.” “… [T]he new military drive will influence discussions of future support for Ukraine … [and] how to guarantee its future. … [U]nclear … is … what the United States, Europe and Ukraine view as a ‘successful’ counteroffensive. … Zelensky has […]
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“With the debt ceiling done, attention turns to the challenges piling up internationally.” “Senior U.S. officials are convinced that future support for the Ukraine war — and … Biden’s global reputation — hinges on the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Succeed and Western military and economic aid will flow. Stumble or fail to meet expectations, and that support will likely dry […]
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“… Q: Where do you see the most exciting research/debates happening in your field? I see a lot of exciting debates happening in the fields of both Russian Studies and Illiberalism. In the field of Russian Studies, there are mixed feelings, obviously, because of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine: a lot of pessimism regarding the future of conducting research in […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]
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“… [T]here is a long-standing NATO policy … that countries aspiring to join NATO must first resolve their territorial disputes. … [L]et’s assume … that Ukraine’s counteroffensive plays out … with a Russian defeat. … [and] that Russia withdraws … from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea …. NATO will then have to deal with the Ukraine question … [with] three broad […]
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( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]
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“… The U.S. and other NATO nations are sending Ukraine tanks, drones and artillery … as [Ukraine] plans [its expected next] offensive. The West also recently pledged to meet Ukraine’s long-standing request for F-16[‘s], [a scenario still requiring] the Ukrainian air force [to spend months] … learn[ing] how to fly and maintain [them] …. … [T]his lengthy Ukrainian buildup has […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Chinese President Xi Jinping told leaders of the five Central Asian republics that Beijing is ready to help them strengthen “their law enforcement, security and defense” capacities. Playing host to these leaders in Xian during a two-day summit, Xi also said China would provide $3.7 billion in financing support and “free assistance” to the five republics […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s counteroffensive needs to show demonstrable success for U.S. Congress to approve additional aid as the money American lawmakers set aside to fund military supplies to Kyiv is set to run out in July, according to U.S. officials interviewed by FT and Politico. Meanwhile, there is a debate underway in Washington over whether substantial gains in […]
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