Russia Analytical Report, March 18-25, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore The March 22 terrorist attack on a concert hall outside Moscow, in which more than 130 people were killed and for which ISIS claimed responsibility, is a “reminder of the fatal results of mutual distrust in the US-Russian relations,” Anatol Lieven writes in reference to the fact that the U.S. did warn Russia on March […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Rattled Nuclear Saber Ahead of Presidential Elections” – WSJ

Russian Tactical Missile on Mobile Launcher, adapted from image featured by army.mil and defense.gov

“Raising specter of nuclear confrontation allows Russian leader to keep his population on edge and convinced of need for militarism, analysts say.” “… Putin warned publicly … of the possibility of nuclear confrontation with the West, a saber … [Putin was] rattling with increasing frequency ahead of presidential elections this weekend. The comments — part of an interview with a […]

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West Mistakenly Thinks Russia in Terminal Decline While Moscow Elites Even More Wrongly Believe They can Restore Russia’s Superpower Status, Pastukhov Says

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Mar. 11, 2024) Many of the mistakes Western elites have made about Russia and that Moscow elites have made about their own county arise from misconceptions each has about Russia’s future, Vladimir Pastukhov says. The West has mistakenly assumed Russia is in terminal decline while Moscow elites think they can restore the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The drama in Russia’s election is all about what Putin will do with another 6 years in power” – AP

Kremlin and River

“… [Russian] voting … conclud[ing] … Sunday is all but certain to allow Putin to remain in office until 2030, giving him a full three decades of leading Russia as either president or prime minister. … [T]hat long tenure and the thorough suppression of effective domestic opposition voices gives Putin a very strong — and perhaps unrestrained — hand … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “America’s New Twilight Struggle With Russia; To Prevail, Washington Must Revive Containment” – Foreign Affairs: Max Bergmann, Michael Kimmage, Jeffrey Mankoff, Maria Snegovaya

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“… [C]containment should prioritize defending Russia’s threatened neighbors, especially those that do not have a clear and immediate path to NATO membership. Apart from Ukraine, Russia’s most vulnerable neighbors include [non-NATO] Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova …. The United States should offer … training and weapons … [and] bolster [their] resilience against Russian gray-zone threats, ranging from cyberattacks to election meddling. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s losses on the battlefield could make the war more dangerous for Russia” – CNBC

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“Russia’s advantage on the battlefield could prompt Ukraine’s backers to give it more of what it wants, and needs, to win the war. Defense analysts call this irony of conflict the ‘escalation paradox.’ French President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial comments on the possibility of NATO ground troops in Ukraine demonstrated this paradox.” “… With Ukraine now on the back foot, analysts […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 26-March 4, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal provides” at least two “potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine,” according to William Alberque of IISS. “Firstly, given Russia’s indifference to civilian casualties in Ukraine, it stands to reason that […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The West Can No Longer Hesitate on Ukraine” – Foreign Policy: Alexander Vershbow

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Allies must provide Kyiv with what it needs to win the war and secure the peace: arms supplies and a path to NATO membership.” “… [T]he West … need[s] … a clearer strategy for achieving victory and stopping … Putin from overturning the rules-based international order. … [H]esitation and incrementalism in providing Ukraine with the military capabilities … it needs […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Six-Year Manifesto Sets Sights Beyond Ukraine” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Putin’s state of the nation address should have been a mere pre-election formality, but it left an extremely chilling impression of an unraveling spiral of escalation.” “… The horizons of this ‘holy war’ have now expanded. If a year ago, Putin focused on protecting ‘our land’ and relied on defensive and even sacrificial rhetoric, this year he sounded victorious, speaking […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 1, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Will the U.S. Abandon Ukraine?” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Two years after Russia’s invasion, America’s waning commitment is raising fears that Putin could win the war — and that Europe may be on its own in future conflicts.” “… Ukraine has proved a formidable foe, regaining half of the land initially occupied by Russia and inflicting staggering casualties on Russia’s much more powerful military. Europe, too, has absorbed the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Has Already Lost” – New York Times

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… If the fundamental purpose of [] Putin’s war was to keep Ukraine within Russia’s orbit — politically, culturally and economically — it has had the opposite effect. Ukraine’s leaders and citizens, particularly those from younger generations, have decided that their future lies with the West, not Russia [including in eastern Ukraine]. … [A]ny visitor to Ukraine’s eastern and southern […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Leadership Change in Russia: Contingency Planning Memorandum” – Council on Foreign Relations: Liana Fix, Maria Snegovaya

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout.” “… Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 … Putin looked set to stay in power […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Does the West’s Ukraine policy need a reality check?” – Brookings

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [T]he outlook appears bleak: both sides have sustained horrific losses, millions of Ukrainians remain displaced or in exile, and there is no plausible sign of an end to the violence. Western capitals are struggling to supply funds and ammunition to Kyiv … [T]he Kremlin seemingly draws on limitless supplies and political support from authoritarian allies and continues to pound […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Despair in Russia as Putin Spirals Out of Control” – Daily Beast

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Just this [past] week the Kremlin claimed it was at war with the United States and Putin’s No.1 enemy was found dead in prison. Russians are terrified about what’s next.” “…. Putin’s spokesman informed Russians this [past] week that … [Russia’s] ‘special military operation’ … was set to go on much longer because it is now ‘a war against the […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 9-15, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]

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UKRAINELINK: “A Long War Made Longer by the West’s Unaddressed Mistakes” – Kennan Institute: Victor Andrusiv

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Victor Andrusiv, Officer, Ukrainian Armed Forces; Former Director, Kyiv School of Public Administration – Feb. 14, 2024) Two years of war in Ukraine is already a long time, but recent events suggest that all forecasts regarding the end of hostilities no longer apply. For the first time, in speaking of a “long war” we’re referring […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why NATO Needs Ukraine: Kyiv’s Survival and Europe’s Security Depend on a More Unified Front” – Foreign Affairs: Alina Polyakova, James Goldgeier

NATO Meeting File Photo

“… The July 2023 NATO summit … settl[ed] on an ambiguously worded communiqué declaring … NATO could invite Ukraine to join ‘when Allies agree and conditions are met.’ … The absence of a clear plan … has given Putin more confidence that he can wait out the West … in a war of attrition. … [T]he lack of resolve … […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “UK must train citizens for war with Russia, says army chief” – The Times (UK)

File Photo of British Parliament Building, Big Ben, Thames, adapted from image at loc.gov

“General Sir Patrick Sanders says volunteers must be prepared for conflict, in speech No 10 didn’t want made public” “Civilians must be trained and equipped to form a ‘citizen army’ of tens of thousands in case Britain is dragged into war with a country such as Russia …. General Sir Patrick Sanders, chief of the general staff [said], also … […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 12-19, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Desperate Hour: The World Needs a Russian Defeat” – Bloomberg

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“After one year of war, it looked like Putin was going to lead a weakened, humbled nation. Entering year three, he has a chance to break Western solidarity.” “… The Russia that emerges from this war may be a hyper-mobilized, hyper-illiberal revisionist power with a deep pool of trained military manpower and a deep sense of grievance toward the West. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s War Effort Is Stuck. This Heroic Battlefield Failure Shows Why.” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Rout of elite Ukraine forces in counteroffensive is a lesson in why the war effort is stalled” “… Because the West had dithered for months over the provision of tanks and other armored vehicles, the Russians were ready. They had dug in on the flat [southeastern] farmland … laying hundreds of thousands of mines and setting up firing positions for […]

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Russia in Review, Dec. 21, 2023-Jan. 5, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and its commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi have continued their indirect struggle over which of them should assume prime responsibility for the unpopular decision1 to conscript up to 500,000 Ukrainians. The tussle began on Dec. 19 when Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army chiefs had requested the conscription of up to 500,000 men, according […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 27-Dec. 4, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 21-Dec. 1, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) In the past month, Russian forces have gained 12 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces gained 5 square miles, according to the Nov. 28 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Developments on and off the battlefield have prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week to admit that Ukraine’s counteroffensive did not produce the desired results, warning of […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 20-27, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia must be held to full account for its aggression” – Politico.eu/ Andreas Umland

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“On its own, a Ukrainian battlefield victory won’t be sufficient if Russia’s wrongs are left intact and its crimes unpunished.” “… [N]either Ukraine nor … international law and justice would be fully served if Russia’s wrongs were left intact and its crimes unpunished. … [L]arge-scale displacement and deportation of Ukrainian children is one of Russia’s most abhorrent offences … a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Ryabkov warns U.S. against entering new arms race” – Reuters

File Photo of B-2 Stealth Bomber in Flight, adapted from defense.gov image with Photo Credit to U.S. Air Force and Sgt. Russell Scalf

“… Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister in charge of ties with the U.S., non-proliferation and arms control, told … Izvestia … present circumstances were not ‘conducive’ to arms talks with Washington. ‘If the United States expects to win the next arms race … the Americans are mistaken,’ Izvestia [quoted] Ryabkov as saying …. [Meanwhile, in the past,] Putin told […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A Containment Strategy for Ukraine: How the West Can Help Kyiv Endure a Long War” – Foreign Affairs/ Liana Fix, Michael Kimmage

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Ukraine and its allies must face, not fear, the war’s current reality … and prepare for a multiyear war and … the long-term containment of Russia…. Russia is not becoming … more amenable to compromise. … [T]he Kremlin’s aspirations to reshape the … international order through violent conflict may be more ambitious now …. Western and Ukrainian leaders need to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The West’s False Choice in Ukraine: The crossroads is not between war and compromise, but between victory and defeat.” – Foreign Policy/ Nona Mikhelidze, Nathalie Tocci

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… The West has indeed reached the limits of its current strategy …. center[ing] on ensuring Ukraine’s survival without enabling … a decisive victory. Ukraine’s Western supporters are now at a crossroads. Some believe … only two routes [lie] ahead: … the perpetuation of war — with the risk that it tilts in Russia’s favor — or negotiations that lead […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Has Staked Russia’s Resources on Victory in Ukraine. Can the West Match Him?” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Kremlin leader seeks to turn advantage in manpower and munitions into battlefield progress, while Western will and assistance for Kyiv waver “… [P]olitical paralysis in the U.S. and Europe … threaten[] … [Ukrainian] … [access to[] arms and money … [T]he Russian army’s limitations … suggest it is more likely to grind out [just] small gains …. The Ukrainian army […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 9-17, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Putin has withstood the West’s best efforts to reverse his invasion of Ukraine, and his hold on power is firm. The U.S. and its allies need a new strategy: containment.” “… Washington and its allies have been remarkably effective at tackling the most urgent aspects of this problem: staving off Ukraine’s collapse, keeping it well-supplied with advanced weapons and real-time […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Collapse of Global Arms Control” – Time

U.S. Tanks in Field Amidst Military Exercises in Europe, adapted from eucom.mil image

“… Nov. 7 in Moscow, the Kremlin defiantly renounced its membership in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), once thought of as a pillar of European stability. … NATO countries quickly followed suit, suspending … treaty obligations. The CFE is not the only arms control agreement … thrown onto the garbage heap of history in recent years. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO freezes a Cold War-era security pact after Russia pulls out, raising questions on arms control” – AP

NATO Meeting File Photo

“NATO member[s] … that signed a key Cold War-era security treaty froze their participation in the pact on Tuesday just hours after Russia pulled out, raising fresh questions about the future of [European] arms control agreements …. Many of NATO’s 31 allies are parties to the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe … aimed at preventing Cold War rivals […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 27-Nov. 3, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 23-30, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]

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All Blushes of Autumn: Russia’s Evolving “Red Lines” in the War on Ukraine

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 860 – Polina Sinovets – Oct. 23, 2023 – PDF: click here) Dr. Polina Sinovets is a Founder and a Head of the Odesa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP) at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University (Ukraine). This memo is based on a forthcoming NATO Defense College policy brief, “Fifty Shades of Red: Where Does Russia Draw […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How to advance vital U.S. interests by helping Ukraine win and defining its path to NATO membership” – The Atlantic Council/ Ambassadors John Herbst, Steven Pifer, Alexander Vershbow, 40 others

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“TO: POTUS FROM: Ambassadors John Herbst, Steven Pifer, Alexander Vershbow, and 40 other national security leaders SUBJECT: A bold agenda for the Washington summit: How to advance vital U.S. interests by helping Ukraine win and defining its path to NATO membership” In 2024 the United States will host a NATO summit marking NATO’s seventy-fifth anniversary. The international order faces an […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Worries That Prolonged War in Gaza May Dilute Global Support” – New York Times

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

“Slow military progress and cracks in the backing of key allies could also drain vital attention from Ukraine’s battle with Russia, some fear.” “Ukraine, still locked in fierce combat with Russia along hundreds of miles of front line, also finds itself grappling with … [geopolitical] shifts …. The attention of key allies is pivoting to … Gaza, military aid from […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) As violence escalated between Israel and Hamas after the latter’s indiscriminate attacks against the former, top Russian officials seized the opportunity to blame the crisis on what they described as America’s repeated failure to use its “monopoly” on mediation between the two sides to reach a fair peace deal. Vladimir Putin has also called for a cessation […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 2-10, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “An existential threat to Israel could draw American attention away from the Ukrainian cause, possibly smoothing a path toward a Russian triumph in Europe,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write in War on the Rocks. NYT editors raise a related concern, warning that “the violence in Israel may also strengthen calls to cut military aid to Ukraine.” […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine battles to shape the narrative on its grueling counteroffensive” – Washington Post

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Four months of brutal fighting and steep losses have not yielded the results … Kyiv and … Western backers hoped for. Despite some Ukrainian progress in breaking through dense Russian defenses, fears of a frozen conflict — and crumbling international support — loom. … [A] senior NATO official lamented ‘Monday morning quarterbacking’ … ‘It’s easy for you to sit […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 29-Oct. 6, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Putin has shot down proposals to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use in Russia’s doctrinal documents, but called for Russia to de-ratify the CTBT. When asked by Sergei Karaganov at the Valdai Club meeting on Oct. 5 whether Russia should “modify the doctrine on using nuclear weapons, lowering the nuclear threshold,” Putin said: “[T]here […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Slovakia gives pro-Russian populist nationalism another win” – The Economist

Bratislava Castle in Slovakia, file photo adapted from cia.gov image

“It could join the EU’s awkward squad if Robert Fico forms a government.” “Robert Fico … fell from power in 2018 after the murder of a journalist investigating high-level corruption, which led to mass protests. Now he looks set to lead [Slovakia] … again. … A [] Fico-led government can be expected to ally itself in the [EU]and NATO with […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Polish experts confirm missile that hit grain facility was Ukrainian – media” – Reuters

Map of Poland, Kaliningrad, Environs, adapted from CRS image at congress.gov

“Polish experts [reportedly] have confirmed that the missile that killed two people at a grain facility in [the village of Przewodow in] southern Poland in November was fired by Ukraine …. The explosion … fueled fears that the war in Ukraine could spiral into a wider conflict … triggering [NATO’s] mutual defense clause, but at the time Warsaw and NATO […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Escalation in the War in Ukraine: Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future” – RAND

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(RAND – rand.org – Bryan Frederick, Mark Cozad, Alexandra Stark – Sept. 21, 2023) [Report home page (HTML) – PDF of full report (108 pages)] “… Further Russian escalation has likely been restrained by three main factors … (1) … NATO military capabilities and reactions, (2) concern for broader international reactions, particularly … China’s … (3) … Russian perception that […]

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