“… Ukraine [reportedly] now has 150,000 troops committed to the operation across three axes of attack, including multiple Western-trained brigades …. But Kyiv is still keeping a number of forces in reserve, as soldiers continue probing heavily mined Russian defenses for weak spots. … Even when Ukrainian forces manage to clear a minefield and advance, Russia [reportedly] will use artillery […]
» Read more
(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Maxim Trudolyubov – July 28, 2023) Maxim Trudolyubov is a Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute and the Editor-at-Large of Meduza. Mr. Trudolyubov was the editorial page editor of Vedomosti between 2003 and 2015. Historically, as a politician interested in holding on to power, Putin was good at doing two things. First, he could run […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – Aug. 3, 2023) At least 79 civilians have been killed on Russian soil since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine last year, the independent news website 7×7 reported Tuesday. The Belgorod region which borders Ukraine, which has regularly been targeted by drone attacks and shelling, saw the highest share of civilian losses, with 48 people killed. Other […]
» Read more
“Traditional military power will not be enough to win the Ukraine war or the larger struggle over the global order.” “… Are cyber attacks, disinformation and influence campaigns still relevant? The answer is a resounding ‘Yes.’ Ukraine is but a single front in a [global conflict] … over what is and is not permissible in international relations. … [T]he war […]
» Read more
“Ukraine fought back with determination and smarts … halting Moscow’s advances and … driving Russian troops back from roughly half of the territory they seized in the last year and a half. As a result, Ukraine’s military looks far more powerful and Russia’s looks far weaker than virtually everyone expected. … [T]he entire shape of the war is very different […]
» Read more
“… [R]etired Australian general [Mick Ryan] described the defensive lines … Russia … built in Ukraine as ‘much more complex and deadly than anything experienced by any military in nearly 80 years.’ … [and that] breaking through … would require the best of combined-arms operational skills …. [Earlier] [s]atellite imagery … showed Russia strengthening its 600-mile front line with minefields, […]
» Read more
“U.S. is competing with a partnership between the two countries but has fewer icebreakers and ports, and less experience” “… [I]n the Bering Sea last fall, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball spotted seven Chinese and Russian vessels steaming … in a double line near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. … [T]he main Chinese ship [was] the Nanchang, one of a new […]
» Read more
“… U.S. officials had looked ahead to the … long-planned counteroffensive as the best hope for turning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into a decisive failure, forcing Putin to sue for peace. …. At a minimum, Ukraine would emerge … as a strong and independent nation, boasting a Western-backed military more than capable of blocking any new Russian aggression …. [T]hings […]
» Read more
“Next week, Ukraine will begin negotiations with the United States on a bilateral agreement on security guarantees under the Joint Declaration of Support …. These guarantees will be valid until Ukraine becomes a member of NATO. This was announced by Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak at the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities …. Andriy Yermak emphasized [that] […]
» Read more
The Kremlin was purportedly against amendments recently passed in the Russian parliament that, once signed into law, would expand the pool of eligible army recruits by raising the upper age limit for military conscription, the independent news website Vyorstka reported Thursday, citing multiple anonymous sources familiar with the matter. Under current Russian law, all men aged 18-27 must complete a […]
» Read more
“Russia blames U.S. ‘pressure’ for absences at Africa summit Summit takes place after Russia quit Black Sea grain deal” “… Putin [met] African leaders 10 days after Russia ended the Ukraine grain-export deal brokered by the [UN] and Turkey that had ensured safe passage of almost 33 million tons of crops via the Black Sea, helping to cool surging world […]
» Read more
“Kyiv’s forces are backed by thousands of troops and Western arms as U.S. official says: ‘This is the big test’” “… An enlarged Ukrainian force, whose ranks are swelled with Western-trained troops, and around 100 Western-supplied armoured vehicles, hope[d] to advance south to sever a land bridge to Crimea. The new operation, if successful, could take one to three weeks, […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – Pyotr Kozlov – July 26, 2023) Russia is doubling down in its efforts to block Ukrainian grain exports and maximize damage to Kyiv’s profits one week after it pulled out of a landmark grain deal securing Ukrainian grain exports. In addition to its systematic attacks on three Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea near Odesa in recent […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – Cameron Manley – July 26, 2023) Secret diplomatic talks are ongoing between former senior U.S. national security officials and high-ranking members of the Kremlin, a former U.S. official directly involved in the talks has confirmed to The Moscow Times. Earlier this month, NBC first reported the existence of these back-channel discussions, which involve former U.S. officials engaging […]
» Read more
“Since [Putin] withdrew on July 17 from a year-old agreement that allowed Ukraine to continue exporting … wheat and corn through the Black Sea … Putin has compounded the harm not only to [Ukraine] but also to millions … across the world who rely on it for grain. … [W]ithin hours, Russia unleashed drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s export […]
» Read more
“Administration’s hopes that Kyiv could negotiate with Moscow fade with slow progress on the ground.” “… A potential stalemate would test … Biden’s stated strategy of pouring billions … in military aid into Ukraine, to enable Kyiv to negotiate … from a position of strength. It could also challenge the West’s continuing ability to supply weaponry … already in short […]
» Read more
“U.S. and Kyiv knew of shortfalls but Kyiv still launched offensive” “… [M]inefields, extensive fortifications and Russian air power have combined to largely block significant advances by Ukrainian troops. … [T]he campaign risks descending into a stalemate with the potential to burn through lives and equipment without a major shift in momentum. As the likelihood of any large-scale breakthrough by […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know It is “way too early” to judge the Ukrainian offensive a failure, said U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, adding that the war “is going to be long, it’s going be hard, it’s going be bloody.” Milley said the biggest challenge for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is getting through […]
» Read more
“Swift loss of several tanks and infantry fighting vehicles has jolted Ukraine and its Western backers” “Ukraine’s counteroffensive, launched at the start of June, is aimed at retaking some of the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory occupied by Moscow. The West provided dozens of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and trained thousands of Ukrainian troops for the campaign. … Kyiv’s […]
» Read more
“William J. Burns gave the most detailed public account yet by a U.S. official of the damage done to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia by last month’s uprising by the mercenary group” “… [C.I.A. Director] Burns … said that for much of the 36 hours of the [Wagner] rebellion last month, Russian security services, the military and decision makers […]
» Read more
“… Biden’s decision to give cluster munitions to Ukraine triggered widespread concern and protests, given that … the bombs … break up into smaller-sized bomblets … indiscriminately blanket[ing] the target area … result[ing] in the slaughter of civilians …. Even close allies like Canada and the UK bristled at the move to provide Kyiv with arms … banned by over […]
» Read more
“Russia and Ukraine both reluctant to cede territory, but some Western allies are losing patience.” “… The G7 recently made significant financial and military commitments to keep Ukraine armed and able to defend itself even after the conflict ends, however it may end. … sometimes called the porcupine approach, ensuring Ukraine has enough muscle to stop a re-invasion …. Ukraine […]
» Read more
“The recent public discussion in Russia on using nuclear weapons against the West was really a discussion about how Moscow can extricate itself from the difficult situation in which it finds itself—and what price it is willing to pay for a victory.” “Does Russia have the right to carry out a nuclear first strike, and has the time come to […]
» Read more
“While Ukraine has consistently surpassed the world’s expectations … it’s fair to say Kyiv’s ongoing counteroffensive has hit more roadblocks than expected. On FP Live … former CIA analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor explained … Russia’s troops are heavily entrenched; Moscow has planted deadly mines across vast swathes of land; and Kyiv has yet to commit a large part of its forces. […]
» Read more
“The prospect of a failed counter-offensive and significant territorial concessions would only embolden Russia and China.” “Since … last year, three options … for how this war would end[] [have been] victory for one side or the other, a frozen conflict or a negotiated settlement. … [T]he last may be more likely than previously thought. … The long-planned counter-offensive … […]
» Read more
“Ukraine has begun firing U.S.-provided cluster munitions against Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine in a push to break up well-fortified Russian positions … according to Ukrainian officials …. Putin … threatened to retaliate against Ukraine ‘if [cluster munitions] are used against us,’ although Russia [reportedly] has already used cluster munitions in populated areas of Ukraine at least 24 times since […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Having seen one-fifth of the weaponry and armor they’ve sent to the battlefield damaged or destroyed in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive, Ukrainian commanders took a pause to rethink their strategy, NYT reported on July 15, citing Western officials. So far, the Ukrainians “taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach […]
» Read more
“The Kremlin’s decision to pull out of a deal to allow Ukrainian grain to get to the global market isn’t simply a matter of spite. While the agreement helped Kyiv and grain buyers, it hasn’t aided Russia, Moscow says.” “… [T]he Kremlin’s … decision to formally pull Russia out of the deal to keep Ukrainian grain and oilseeds flowing … […]
» Read more
“… JAKE SULLIVAN: … I’m not sure we could have said it more clearly than the 31 allies said in the NATO communique … ‘Ukraine’s future will be in NATO.’ Period. Full stop. That was a single clear sentence. … not subject to negotiation with any country, including Russia. … a subject only for the allies and for Ukraine. … […]
» Read more
“The first phase of Ukraine’s counteroffensive … began weeks ago without fanfare. Apart from claiming … its troops are edging forward, Kyiv has not offered much detail …. [M]ostly out of sight of impartial observers … fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine pits troops equipped with new Western-supplied weapons against Kremlin forces that spent months digging formidable defenses and honing […]
» Read more
“Vladimir Putin’s authority has suffered a grave blow.” “… Prigozhin[‘s] … mutiny has revealed the erosion of the state and the flimsiness of [] Putin’s support base. His dictatorship has so far relied less on mass purges than a consensus between power groups. His political opponents have ended up in jail (like [] Navalny) or exile. … [H]e has sowed […]
» Read more
“The Ukrainian leader has secured new weapons pledges, but it was not clear when the aid would arrive, or how consequential it would be on the battlefield.” “… Zelensky … said … Russian forces were throwing ‘everything they can’ at Kyiv’s troops fighting to retake land in the south and east … emphasizing the grueling nature of a counteroffensive … […]
» Read more
“… For an intelligence chief running Ukraine’s spy operations during war with Russia, Kyrylo Budanov, 37, has built up an unusually public profile … to get his message out and … menace Russia from afar. These days, a spy boss cannot stay in the shadows, he says. … In parts of his interview … he said … mutinying Russian mercenaries […]
» Read more
“Russia Can Be Stopped Only on the Battlefield – Angela Stent” “… [T]here is a huge problem in trying to negotiate with … Putin’s Russia, … Russia itself. Moscow has broken every security-related agreement it has signed with Ukraine in the past 30 years. These include the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, whereby Ukraine renounced its nuclear arsenal — […]
» Read more
“Trump says President Biden isn’t capable of dealing with world leaders.” “… Trump explained his plan to secure peace in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking back the White House on Sunday, saying he would tell … Zelenskyy to make a deal. … The former president said he has a good relationship with both Zelenskyy and … Putin, and added […]
» Read more
“… [I]f it were up to [Gen. Valery] Zaluzhny[, Ukraine’s top commander,] … [h]e would fight with air superiority. … fire back at least as many shells as the Russians are firing at his troops[] [a]nd … have cruise missiles that could match Moscow’s. Instead, modern fighter jets, such as … F-16[‘s], are not expected on the battlefield until next […]
» Read more
“… [NATO] leaders … affirm[ed] … ‘Ukraine’s future is in NATO’ … [declaring] ‘[w]e will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met’ …. [Meanwhile] G7 countries … issued a joint declaration setting out general principles on … ‘enduring’ support for Ukraine. … work[ing] towards ‘specific, bilateral, […]
» Read more
“When Russia marched into Ukraine last year, it sought to rally Russian speakers abroad …. Then the Russian speakers pushed back. … Germany[] [is] home to 3.5 million Russian speakers, the largest such group outside the former Soviet Union and the biggest migrant community in Germany. … [T]he Russlanddeutsche, or ‘Russia Germans,’ ethnic Germans whose ancestors settled in Russia in […]
» Read more
“The writings of Tolstoy, Turgenev, Dostoyevsky and others are littered with clues for understanding the 21st-century world.” “Books of cultural criticism seldom shed a piercing light on headline events. However, readers of ‘Wonder Confronts Certainty,’ Gary Saul Morson’s masterly panorama of classic Russian literature and its hinterland of ideas, will find their understanding of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent botched rebellion against […]
» Read more
“… Putin and his comrades see Nazis where there aren’t any … [and] see militarization where there isn’t any …. They insisted in late 2021 and early 2022 that they would never, ever invade Ukraine — and then did. They deny, still, targeting Ukrainian civilian targets. They deny, still, having destroyed the Kakhovka dam. The list could go on ad […]
» Read more
“Long focused on security, the Russian resident is rewarding loyalty among the ruling elite and showering his most important constituency — the men with guns — with cash.” “… Putin appears to be scrambling to coup-proof his system once more. … rewarding loyalty among the ruling elite and showering his most important constituency — the men with guns — with […]
» Read more
“But mass still counts, argues Shashank Joshi in the first of seven chapters of a special report on the future of warfare.” “… [The Russo-Ukrainian War has turned out to feature] old-style attrition: an industrial-scale contest of manpower, steel and explosives. … [with Russian casualties thought to number] over 200,000 … killed and wounded. … four times the … Soviet […]
» Read more
“… Medvedev … has warned that Moscow’s confrontation with the West will last decades and that its conflict with Ukraine could become permanent. Medvedev[, former Russian president and now] deputy head of … [Russia’s] Security Council, … has emerged as one of Russia’s most outspoken hawks since Moscow launched what it called a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine last year. […]
» Read more
“This is war. … Zelenskyy[] is fighting or forced to fight a Russian president who’s been ruthless, bombing civilian targets from almost minute one, with Zelenskyy pleading with the United States and the West, please send tanks, please send planes, please send us the most advanced military equipment you can give us, because we need it. … [S]ending cluster munitions […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – July 7, 2023) What made Yevgeny Prigozhin rebel? We have seen multiple explanations offered, including his outspoken hatred for Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov; his evident reluctance to give up control of his PMC Wagner to the Defense Ministry; unspecified personal financial pressures; and his […]
» Read more
(whitehouse.gov – July 7, 2023) …. As I mentioned, because we’ve seen all of these reports on the provision of cluster munitions to Ukraine, I will leave it to the Pentagon to make a formal announcement later this afternoon for the next drawdown package and to go into the details of that drawdown package and the specifics on the types […]
» Read more
“… [S]outhern Ukraine [minefields] are so dense… [that] troops trying to liberate the area [reportedly] can only advance ‘tree by tree’ … Ukraine’s Western allies are getting nervous about the fact that … progress … is … measured in meters, rather than kilometers. … [T]he slower than expected pace of the counteroffensive means … support could become increasingly unsustainable if […]
» Read more
“The short-lived mutiny by the Wagner Group rebounded to help solidify Putin’s control.” “… There is no doubt that Prigozhin’s rebellion was unpleasant news for Putin. But is the Russian leader weakened? We know very little about what happened between Putin and Prigozhin … ‘Putin’s chef.’ And what we do know supports very few, if any, of the claims that […]
» Read more
“A robust fund-raising operation has been critical in supplying Ukraine’s military. But as the war drags on, contributions have lagged.” “… [M]any Ukrainian military units have relied heavily on donations and charitable funds to supply … troops with much-needed supplies like first aid kits, body armor, vehicles and even drones. People and groups from around the world rallied to Ukraine’s […]
» Read more