JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Ukraine gambit seen as part of play for new Biden summit” – Reuters

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“… U.S., NATO and Ukrainian officials have raised the alarm in recent weeks over what they say are unusual Russian troop movements closer to Ukraine, suggesting that Moscow may be poised to launch a new attack on its neighbour, accusations Russia has rejected as fear-mongering. … Putin already got the attention of Biden’s White House once this year by massing […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and Ukraine both step up military alert with combat drills” – Reuters

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Russia staged military drills in the Black Sea, south of Ukraine, … and said it needed to sharpen the combat-readiness of its conventional and nuclear forces because of heightened NATO activity near its borders. Ukraine, which with its ally the United States has said it believes Russia may be preparing an invasion, staged exercises of its own near the border […]

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Why There Won’t Be a People’s Republic of Left-Bank Ukraine Just Yet

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – Nov. 23, 2021) Simon Saradzhyan is the founding director of the Russia Matters Project. Evidence of recently resumed movements of Russian troops in the vicinity of Russia’s border with Ukraine (as well as farther afield) have reignited the debate about Kremlin intentions to order another military intervention on its neighbor’s territory, with […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s SVR: Allegations regarding concentration of forces in Russia for invading Ukraine ‘absolutely false'” – Interfax

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Nov 22 (Interfax) – The allegations that Russia has concentrated substantial forces to launch a military invasion of Ukraine are “absolutely false,” the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said on Monday. “The press office of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service states that Washington-based officials have lately been actively scaring the international community with Russia’s alleged preparations for ‘aggression’ against […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kremlin Slams U.S. ‘Hysteria’ Over Ukraine Conflict” – Moscow Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Peskov’s comments come after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken … declined to say whether U.S. intelligence believed … Putin was aiming to seize land from Ukraine […]

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Kremlin Lashes Out At West, Defends Troop Movements, As It Boosts Role In Belarus-EU Border Crisis

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

The Kremlin has vowed to safeguard its borders in the face of actions by countries it accused of trying to “contain” Russia and sought to walk back a Belarusian threat of a cutoff of Russian natural gas to Western markets […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin: Russia must build up defenses in view of NATO moves” – AP/ Vladimir Isachenkov

File Photo of U.S. Navy warships in Black Sea exercise, adapted from image at defense.gov with photo credit to MC1 Justin Stumberg

“… Russia has bristled at … U.S. and other NATO ships … [T]ensions between Moscow and the West have sunk to post-Cold War lows after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, … [the] insurgency in eastern Ukraine and other irritants. … Russia suspended its [NATO] mission … and ordered the closure of [NATO’s] office in Moscow after NATO … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Air Force Bombers Are Rehearsing Their New Main Mission — Sinking Russian Ships” – Forbes

File Photo of B1 Bomber in Flight, adapted from image at defense.gov, with photo credit: U.S. Air Force Photo/Bennie Davis III

A pair of B-1s could shoot 48 LRASMs at Russia’s Baltic Fleet, enough, perhaps, to sink the entire fleet in a single pass and eliminate the major threat to U.S. and allied ships in the region […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Georgia sign military training pact amid Russian threat on the Black Sea” – Defense News

File Photo of Tbilisi, Georgia and Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Georgian counterpart on Monday signed an agreement to extend U.S.-led military training …. ahead of [Austin’s] visits to other Black Sea allies Ukraine and Romania to deliver a message of ‘unwavering’ support for their sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russian threats. Since Russia’s war with Georgia, it has had a […]

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Iran Cements Alliance With China, Russia In Clear Message To Washington

Iran Map and Flag

The seismic, multi-generational Iran-China deal is set for full roll-out. Full membership of the economic, military and political, SCO alliance will lead to major strategic investments in Iran’s up-and-downstream sectors […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, Belarus Agree on Economic Integration Pacts; The agreements, which cover trade, labor, currencies, taxes and energy, will deepen Moscow’s sway over its neighbor” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“… Putin … [said] that in the end all 28 integration programs were approved. [Putin said that] [t]hey include the integration of currency systems, the principles of levying indirect taxes … the fight against terrorism … [and] the pricing of Russian energy resources, … that a document would be signed by Dec. 1, 2023, to create a single gas market […]

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Russia Says Ukraine Organized Gas Pipeline Attack In Crimea

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Sept. 7, 2021) Russia accused on Tuesday Ukraine’s military intelligence of having organized an attack on a natural gas pipeline in Crimea at the end of last month, in another escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kyiv. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine back in 2014, straining the bilateral relations between one of Europe’s key natural […]

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FSU Analysts Assess the Impact of Events in Afghanistan on Russia and U.S.-R.F. Relations

File Photo of Kabul, Afghanistan, Residential Area, adapted from image at defense.gov

The perspectives of Russia’s non-government Middle East experts on … the Taliban and its impact on Russia appear to be more varied than those of Russian diplomats and … other official counterparts. [This post] compiled a selection of such views, along … [those of some] Western FSU watchers […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia supports withdrawal of foreign fighters from Libya” – AP

File Photo of Ancient Roman Arch in Libya Framing Minaret and Palm Trees, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… Lavrov said after the talks … with Najla Mangoush that the Libyan leadership ‘is forming a consultative mechanism … to formulate the concrete parameters’ under which … foreign forces will leave. Russia was among … foreign powers backing … warring sides in Libya’s conflict … [S]ome officials and media … alleg[ed] … Russian private military contractors took part in […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: No one thinking of invading Afghanistan” – Interfax

Soviet Era Afghan Soldiers with Flag

(Interfax – July 21, 2021) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has given an interview to Interfax, in which he commented on leaks in Western media regarding a German-U.S. agreement on the Nord Stream 2 project. He also said that Russia does not plan to deploy its troops in Afghanistan and deliver pinpoint strikes on terrorists there. He also denied reports […]

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West Using Ukraine to Undermine Russian National Identity and Dismember Russia, Markov Says

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, July 15, 2021) “Putin’s main mistake,” Sergey Markov says, was not introducing Russian military forces into Ukraine in the spring of 2014, a failure that has led to the rise of “an occupation regime” there and the formation of an “anti-Russia.” With his new article, the Kremlin leader has laid the foundation […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Some Investors Sense Buying Opportunity in Russia-U.S. Détente” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Outdoor Electronic Sign with Russian Exchange Data

Russian market could benefit from geopolitical calm, but Black Sea skirmish shows Russia has a habit of delivering negative surprises […]

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AUDIO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Russia Stands To Gain By Backing Belarus [Fiona Hill interview]” – NPR

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“A growing number of European countries are blocking access to Belarusian airlines. … after Belarus intercepted a commercial flight and removed and arrested Roman Protasevich, an opposition journalist who was on board. … While Western democracies try to sanction Belarus, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, seems to support Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. … Fiona Hill … spoke to NPR’s All Things […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biggest Navy Exercise in a Generation Will Include 25,000 Personnel Across 17 Time Zones” – Military.com

File Photo of Portions of U.S. Navy Carrier Groups Lincoln and Stennis in Mediterranean, adapted from defense.gov image relating to defense.gov video

“Tens of thousands of sailors and Marines will participate in the biggest U.S. naval exercise in a generation to test how the services will fight across vast distances as they prepare for possible conflict with China or Russia. Aircraft carriers, submarines, planes, unmanned vessels, and about 25,000 personnel will participate in Large Scale Exercise 2021 … [beginning] late summer. … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Arctic-Superpower Jostling Heats Up as Russia Takes on Key Role” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Arctic Fox Running Across Snow, adapted from image at USGS.gov, with photo credit to Mike Lockart and USGS

“Russia’s Sergei Lavrov claimed this week that ‘this is our land and our waters’ as NATO allies boost military activity” “… Russian and U.S. diplomats … [signal] rising tensions between [powers] racing to seize Arctic resources …. Arctic Council [participants] weren’t due to discuss security. But … Russia’s … Sergei Lavrov declared … the Arctic ‘is our land and our […]

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Russians Evenly Split on Whether Attacking Ukraine would Help or Hurt Putin, Lev Gudkov Says

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The head of the Levada Center … says that 43 to 44 percent of Russians think another invasion would boost Putin’s ratings, but 40 percent say that it would have precisely the opposite effect and spark mass dissatisfaction and protests […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin denies militarization of Russian economy, says ‘everyone trying to nibble will be kicked in teeth'” – Interfax

Kremlin and River

MOSCOW. May 20 (Interfax) – The Russian economy is not being militarized, however, anyone trying to encroach on its territory will receive a harsh response, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. “The same thing has happened now and always: as soon as Russia gets stronger, a pretext is found to limit its development. As one of our emperors once said, ‘Everyone […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Arctic rivalry heats up among the great powers” – Financial Times

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“Friction in other parts of the globe as well as climate change are fueling tensions in the high north.” “… [N]ew or updated [arctic] strategies … have appeared … from Canada, China, the EU, France, Germany, Norway, Poland, Russia, Sweden and the UK[,] [as well as] the U.S. Air Force, Army, Coast Guard, Department of Defense, Department for Homeland Security, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Five lessons from Russia’s Ukraine military escalation” – Mathieu Boulègue/ Chatham House

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Russia shows readiness and an ability to move at speed when needed, but key to its strategy is retaining control of both military and diplomatic manoeuvres.” “1. Attention is focused where Russia wants it to be … [M]id-April, international media reported Russia will invade or ‘go to war’ with Ukraine, without realizing this is already effectively the case. Russia’s annexation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Posturing Is a Test of Western Resolve; The threat to Ukraine is far from over. Europe and the U.S. should give Kyiv the support it needs” – Bloomberg

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Putin has temporarily eased tensions by ordering Russian troops to pull back from the border [but] … remains determined to undermine the Ukrainian government’s control over its own territory. The U.S. and its NATO allies should meet the threat with a coordinated response … providing Ukraine with the weapons necessary to defend itself [as a start]. … [T]he seven-year-old […]

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Zelenskiy Warns That Russian Troops Can Return At ‘Any Moment’

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

… Zelenskiy has urged the Ukrainian military to remain on alert despite Russia’s drawdown of its troops from the country’s borders, saying they could return “at any moment” […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia withdraws troops from Ukraine’s border” – bne Intellinews

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Fears of an imminent invasion have been stoked by the large build-up of Russian forces on Ukraine’s eastern border and additional forces sent to Crimea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed the announcement and thanked his international partners for their support. … [E]stimates … vary from around 40,000 new troops largely stationed in the city of Voronezh some 130 km […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia: Foreign Policy and U.S. Relations [Excerpt]” – Congressional Research Service

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rise to leadership more than 20 years ago, tensions have increased steadily between Russia and the United States […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin and ‘Consequences’; Putin masses troops near Ukraine in an early test for Biden and the G-7 allies” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [T]he world is becoming a more dangerous place by the day. The hottest current spot is Russia’s border with Ukraine and the Black Sea, where the Kremlin has amassed more forces than any time since its invasion of the Donbass …. Putin’s ambitions aren’t clear, though some think he wants to control the entire Black Sea coast, further squeezing […]

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RUSSIALINK: “U.S. to Send 2 Warships to Black Sea Amid Russia-Ukraine Tension, Turkey Says” – Moscow Times

File Photo of U.S. Navy warships in Black Sea exercise, adapted from image at defense.gov with photo credit to MC1 Justin Stumberg

… The U.S. Navy routinely operates [in] the Black Sea and flies reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace there to monitor Russian naval activity and troop movements […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Ukraine does not seek escalation of situation in Donbas – NSDC secretary” – Interfax

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

KYIV. April 7 (Interfax) – Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Oleksiy Danilov said, when commenting on the situation surrounding a buildup of Russian forces in the proximity of the border with Ukraine, that “there is a certain intensification of all processes” today, adding that Kyiv seeks to avert any escalation of the situation in Donbas. “Let’s […]

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Russia’s Karabakh Protectorate Taking Clearer Shape (Part One)

Map of Azerbaijan and Environs, adapted from image at cia.gov

(The Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 18, Issue 45 – Vladimir Socor – March 18, 2021) Russia’s military “peacekeeping” intervention in Upper (“Nagorno”) Karabakh in November 2020 laid the foundation for a Russian de facto protectorate (see EDM, December 8, 10, 2020). The Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020) has resulted in a partition of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Could Putin Launch Another Invasion?” – Politico/ Leon Aron

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“The same factors that led up to his incursion into Ukraine are in place again, including domestic protests, a struggling economy and a desire for glory” “… [O]n the seventh anniversary of the Crimean Anschluss, many of the same vectors that produced the invasion of Ukraine are here again. … There are at least two reasons for Putin to be […]

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