“… The nuanced Kremlin reaction made clear that Russia was not rejecting the U.S. and NATO responses out of hand or closing the door to diplomacy. … [W]ritten U.S. and NATO responses were not made public, but both had already rejected [various] demands while expressing willingness to engage on other issues such as arms control, confidence-building measures and limits on […]
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U.S. Department of State: Fact Sheet: Office of the Spokesperson …. Below are examples of Russian lies about the current crisis and its causes – and the truth […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Thomas Graham – Jan. 20, 2022) Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as the senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff during the George W. Bush administration. Last week’s intense talks between Russia and the West over European security seemed to end in failure. Moscow heard […]
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The meeting of allies comes a day before Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Geneva for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jan. 20, 2022) The United States has given the green light for Baltic nations to rush U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine, with Lithuania on Thursday saying it hoped to deter “aggressor” Russia. A State Department official in Berlin, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken is holding crisis talks on Ukraine, said Washington was “expediting authorized transfers […]
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“The Kremlin’s aim would probably be to shatter Ukrainian military power and dictate terms.” “… Even with [various] advantages, Russia would struggle to occupy [Kyiv], let alone … Ukraine, … as large and populous as Afghanistan. … [O]ver 300,000 Ukrainians have gained … military experience … [M]ost have access to firearms. … [T]he Pentagon and CIA [reportedly] would both support […]
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According to the White House, U.S. intelligence officials believe Russia has deployed operatives to rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine to carry out acts of sabotage and blame them on Ukraine, in a ‘false-flag operation’ to create a pretext for possible invasion […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jan. 18, 2022) Russia is still awaiting the U.S. and NATO’s response to its sweeping demands for a new security settlement in Europe, Russia’s top diplomat said Tuesday as tensions between Moscow and the West over Ukraine continue to mount. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after a series of high-level talks last week that the […]
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“As Moscow seeks grip on Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelensky is pursuing charges against his predecessor Petro Poroshenko.” “… Firmly on the outside of international talks, Ukraine was buffeted by domestic turbulence Monday as … Poroshenko returned … from abroad to face charges of treason and financing terrorism. … Poroshenko denies wrongdoing and says … Zelensky is pursuing him as … a […]
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At the very least, several experts said recent talks appeared to be a baby step in the right direction. Or simply not a step in the wrong direction […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Peter Leonard – Jan. 12, 2022 Peter Leonard is the Central Asia editor at Eurasianet.org. Kazakhstan has never in its brief post-independence history looked so vulnerable. Last week’s unrest—which has led to dozens of deaths and nearly 10,000 arrests—saw the country’s leadership come under assault from three directions: below, within and abroad. The first murmurs […]
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“The United States and NATO [at the NATO-Russia Council’s first meeting in over two years] rejected key Russian security demands for easing tensions over Ukraine but left open … the possibility of future talks with Moscow on arms control, missile deployments and ways to prevent military incidents …. That Russia’s delegation did not walk out … and remained open to […]
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(U.S. Department of State Press Briefing – excerpt with Victoria Nuland – WASHINGTON, D.C., Jan. 11, 2022) MR PRICE: Good afternoon. Very sorry for the delay, but as you can see, we have a special guest joining us today for the second time, at least in this current iteration. She is no stranger to all of you. Victoria Nuland, the Under Secretary of State […]
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“… Tokayev said Tuesday that a contingent of Russia-led [CSTO] forces would begin leaving … in two days … the pullout … tak[ing] no more than 10 days. … [M]ore than 2,000 troops [were] d[i]spatched at the peak of the crisis … after armed clashes between government opponents and security forces and a looting spree [left] parts of the largest […]
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“While Russia and the U.S. are preparing to meet for critical strategic talks over Ukraine, residents in the rebel-controlled Ukrainian city of Donetsk claim the Ukrainian army started heavy firing on New Year’s Eve.” “… A 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany ended large-scale battles, but frequent skirmishes have continued. The [OSCE] … has reported an increasing number […]
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“Kremlin tests the alliance by undermining former Soviet republics, sowing disinformation and exploiting divisions.” “The U.S. and other NATO members have deployed thousands of troops and invested heavily in weaponry to rebuild the alliance’s front line facing Russia. Moscow has parried that strategy by opening up new fronts just beyond NATO’s reach. … Rather than confront NATO head-on … Putin […]
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Russian leaders have used deception for strategic ends in ways that shed light on their geopolitical goals […]
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“The Kremlin said Tuesday it saw ‘no significant reason for optimism’ …. The talks aimed at defusing tensions over Ukraine took place in Geneva on Monday and offered no sign of immediate progress. Moscow went in insisting on guarantees to halt NATO’s eastward expansion and even roll back the military alliance’s deployments in Eastern Europe — demands that Washington had […]
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“The president of Kazakhstan announced Tuesday that [the] Russia-led security alliance [Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), including six former Soviet states,] will start pulling out its troops [from Kazakhstan] … in two days …. Protests over soaring fuel prices erupted in the oil and gas-rich Central Asian nation of 19 million on Jan. 2 and quickly spread across the country […]
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“In tightening grip over neighbors, president seeks to signal that his country is a superpower to be both feared and respected.” “… The [Russian-led CSTO] venture into Kazakhstan, at the request of the country’s leader, follows nearly 15 years of Russian interventionism in Georgia, Belarus, Ukraine and elsewhere aimed at pulling [them] even closer to Russia … propping up [Kremlin-aligned] […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Robert Legvold – Jan. 6, 2022) Robert Legvold is Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus in the department of political science at Columbia University. As senior Russian officials prepare for talks on European security with Western counterparts, three aspects of the latest crisis around Ukraine point to its seeming intractability, but also lay bare an elemental […]
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“… Perhaps [Putin] wants Ukraine to fail because, were it to become a thriving democracy, it would … rebuke … his claim that Western values are unworkable in Orthodox, Slavic Russia. He may also intend to divide and weaken NATO … [and] to create an enemy abroad … to justify repression at home …. But … Ukraine is as populous […]
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“…. Russia is heading to Geneva with what amounts to an ultimatum: Unless … Putin gets security guarantees from the West, he’s prepared to invade. Biden administration officials say they want a diplomatic solution, but they’ve also been delivering warnings through public and private channels that an invasion would be bloody, protracted and extremely damaging for Russia. … The Air […]
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“As violence grows, the Russian military deployment injects a new element into the crisis in the former Soviet republic.” “… Nazarbayev steered the country along two tracks[,] [a]t home, … strengthen[ing] … Kazakh identity and weaken[ing] Russia’s historic influence[,] [while, in] foreign and defense policy … hew[ing] close to the Kremlin, assuring Russia … Kazakhstan would always remain a strategic […]
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“… Much contained in … documents … Moscow has made public — a draft agreement with NATO countries and the offer of a treaty between Russia and the United States — appears to be a non-starter [for NATO] …. NATO would have to agree to halt all membership plans, not just with Ukraine, and end military exercises close to Russia’s […]
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“… Ukraine is deeply wary of threats to its independence, so one might expect widespread alarm … [over] 100,000 or so Russian troops at the border, and … [Putin] muttering … about ‘military-technical’ action. … [But] Ukrainians have weathered eight years of war against troops backed by Russia in … Donetsk and Luhansk, which have claimed 13,000 lives. … [T]hey […]
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“But a series of revolts against a pro-Russian strongman could also plant the seeds of rebellion at home, analysts say.” “… The arrival in Kazakhstan of 2,500 troops from a Russian-led military alliance amid … violent protest was the fourth time in … two years … Moscow has flexed its muscle in neighboring states — Belarus, Armenia and Ukraine being […]
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Experts believe Moscow risks being sucked into neighboring unrest and having to manage strategic instability on two fronts […]
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Satellite images, social media posts and flight-tracking data allow private analysts to track details governments once classified […]
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Here are some of the key developments in Russia over the past week and some of the takeaways going forward […]
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Citing the Russian military, Russian news agency Interfax states that more than 10,000 Russian troops have been returning to permanent bases after month-long drills near Ukraine […]
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“Leader accuses West of stoking anti-Russian sentiment in neighboring nation, warns against NATO expansion.” “… [Putin’s] comments … were a response to claims by the U.S. and Europe that Russia’s massing of tens of thousands of troops on its border with Ukraine is a prelude to an invasion of its smaller neighbor …. Putin has set Ukraine’s proposed [NATO] membership […]
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Following Putin’s comments, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance will “not compromise” on Ukraine’s right to “choose its own path” and seek NATO membership […]
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“Moscow’s ‘red lines’ viewed as not credible, but pressure mounts to find diplomatic solution.” “… Western officials have in private rejected almost all of the demands as implausible, not credible and in contradiction to post-cold war treaties guaranteeing sovereign states’ rights to choose their defence policies. But they admit that closing the door on Moscow’s initial diplomatic offer could make […]
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In addition to closing Ukraine’s door to NATO membership, the Russian president demands that the Western military alliance halt weapons deployment on its western border […]
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Putin, a former agent of the Soviet KGB security service, has previously lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union […]
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Russia will respond “militarily” to what it perceives as NATO’s encroachment on its western borders, a senior diplomat said […]
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The Russian and U.S. leaders talked about rising tensions for two hours, but the path forward for both sides, and Ukraine, remains unclear […]
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Russian President Putin is assembling a potent military force and may see a chance to act this winter, William Burns says […]
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To address a rising China, Washington has set up the QUAD security dialogue with India, Japan, and Australia, raising concerns in both Beijing and Moscow […]
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“U.S. Secretary of State Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Stockholm as tensions continue to escalate, but spent only 30 minutes in discussions, suggesting little progress was made in walking back the crisis.” “… Blinken appealed to … Lavrov to choose diplomacy over coercion … Amongst the most painful sanctions that Washington has so far held in reserve […]
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“… The Biden administration has said Russian troops are massing near the Ukrainian border and is reported to be considering the dispatch of new weaponry as well as advisers to Kiev. Ukraine is already using U.S. anti-tank missiles and Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. The supply of more such advanced weaponry would dramatically increase Russian losses in the event of a […]
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“… Moscow has been calling for a new post-Cold War security deal with the West since 2008, when … Medvedev offer[ed] the EU a … deal during his first foreign trip. … [which was] was dismissed out of hand. Putin brought the issue up again during a … speech where he ordered Russian diplomats to get a new security deal […]
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“Russia indicates that the move was in retaliation for Washington’s expulsion of more than 50 Russian diplomats.” “Russia ordered U.S. Embassy staff … in Moscow for more than three years to leave the country by Jan. 31 … [even as] diplomats [will soon] hold talks to address the worsening [U.S.-Russian] relationship …. Foreign ministry officials … indicated that the decision […]
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“… On the edge of Horlivka, … controlled by … separatists since 2014, … neighbors are trapped between the two warring sides in a conflict that the Ukrainian government says has killed more than 14,000 people. Russia has accused Ukraine of preparing to try to recapture the breakaway eastern regions by force …. Ukraine fears Russia might use that as […]
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“For the first time in our history, we have combat-ready battle groups in the Baltic region … in Latvia and … Lithuania,” Stoltenberg said …. NATO also conducts air policing and has an increased naval presence … in the Baltic region […]
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The buildup of forces is evident in western Russia and also in Crimea, according to satellite images. It’s impossible to ascertain exactly what Russia’s intentions are […]
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“… U.S., NATO and Ukrainian officials have raised the alarm in recent weeks over what they say are unusual Russian troop movements closer to Ukraine, suggesting that Moscow may be poised to launch a new attack on its neighbour, accusations Russia has rejected as fear-mongering. … Putin already got the attention of Biden’s White House once this year by massing […]
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