(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – May 18, 2022) Can the war in Ukraine be ended through diplomacy? If so, how and when? RM staff have combed through recent commentary by experts on both sides of the geopolitical divide in search of answers. Even before Russian and Ukrainian officials said this week that peace talks were “on pause,” […]
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(Moscow Times – Yanina Sorokina – May 19, 2022) Timofei Voronov, 21, a cultural studies student at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics (HSE), was summoned to see the prestigious university’s deputy head in March after being detained at an anti-war rally. Along with several other students, Voronov was shown a list of new laws at the March meeting, including those […]
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(Moscow Times – May 18, 2022) Talks aimed at ending hostilities in Russia’s nearly three-month attack on Ukraine have come to a standstill because of a “lack of willingness” on Kyiv’s part, the Kremlin said Wednesday. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have held several rounds of peace talks since the start of the invasion in February. But the talks have lost […]
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“… Russian columnist [Mikhail Kodaryonok] … appear[ing] on [Russian-state-owned] television … gave a damning assessment of the situation in Ukraine from Russia’s perspective. … Khodaryonok’s comments come after Russian military forces have suffered a series of setbacks …. Khodaryonok … painted an even grimmer situation [ahead] for Russia … [anticipating] the vast supply of arms … soon likely … available […]
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(Moscow Times – May 17, 2022) Russia said Tuesday that 265 Ukrainian soldiers holed up in Mariupol’s besieged Azovstal steel plant had “surrendered,” contradicting Kyiv’s account that the evacuated soldiers would be exchanged later. “The surrender of fighters from the Azov nationalist unit and Ukrainian servicemen blocked in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol began yesterday,” the Russian Defense Ministry said […]
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“… Moscow’s military is bogged down and has taken heavy losses. Russia’s international isolation is getting worse … Finland and Sweden are planning to join Nato. … [E]ven a war against a smaller, weaker neighbour can go badly wrong. Larger conflicts invite disaster. Even nominal victory can leave your economy and society in a ruinous condition. … [H]istorian AJP Taylor […]
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“Russian forces also face ‘low morale and reduced combat effectiveness,’ the report said.” “… [Russian] forces who remain [in Ukraine] are depleted and have been unable to make any territorial progress in recent weeks, British intelligence … said …. Russia ‘has now likely suffered losses of one-third of the ground combat force it committed in February,’ the [UK] Ministry of […]
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“Russia’s nearly three-month-old invasion of … Ukraine has been punctuated by flawed planning, poor intelligence, barbarity and wanton destruction. … [O]bscured in the daily fighting is the geographic reality that Russia has made gains …. The Russian Defense Ministry said Tuesday that its forces … had advanced to the border between Donetsk and Luhansk, … Russian-speaking [eastern Ukrainian] provinces where […]
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“Strikes and explosions — some attributed to Ukrainian forces — have hit infrastructure vital to Moscow’s offensive in eastern Ukraine.” “… [A]ttacks inside Russian territory and unexplained explosions at Russian targets near the border … have expanded the scope of the conflict … underscoring Russian vulnerabilities in regions … crucial to Moscow’s renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine. … Ukraine has […]
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“The strikes have been one of the most intriguing, and opaque, new elements of the recent fighting. But when it comes to confirming their origins, “we don’t say yes and we don’t say no,’’ said the official.” “…. If carried out by Ukraine, they represent acts of once nearly unimaginable audacity … Russia has accused Ukraine of carrying out the […]
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“Governments see Ukrainian success offering chance of curbing Russian expansionism.” “Ukraine’s military successes against Russia have transformed [Western] calculations … leading to a sharp increase in military help for Kyiv as a war that started with Western efforts at damage control … [now] offers a strategic opportunity to constrain Russia[n] expansionis[m] …. [Western] allies are now shipping large volumes of […]
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“… nearly 400 … in the Kharkiv region alone … have been detained under anti-collaboration laws enacted … after Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion[] … [imposing] up to 15 years in prison for collaborating with Russian forces, making public denials about Russian aggression or supporting [the Kremlin]. Anyone whose actions result in deaths could face life in prison. … Political analysts […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – April 28, 2022) This blog post is part of a new “Clues from Russian Views” series, in which we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying on Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking.The words in the news: Speaking about the war in […]
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“… [There are] eerie — and alarming — parallels [between the Russian Federation’s leadup to its massive invasion of Ukraine] and … what has been happening … in … Moldova. … [B]etween Romania and Ukraine, this poor, militarily weak former Soviet republic has been partially occupied since 1992 by Russian troops. They intervened during a brief civil war, purportedly to […]
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“The Russian army’s strangely stumble-footed invasion of Ukraine is only the latest reminder of the pervasive and long-standing ‘human resource’ woes that frustrate … Putin’s aspirations for superpower status. … Russia is depopulating — even after Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, its total numbers are lower today than when the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia’s working-age population and its pool […]
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(Moscow Times – Alexandra Vladimirova – April 29, 2022) Two days after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a group of hackers managed to get access to several Russian state-owned television channels and broadcast anti-war videos. But the attack ended after a few minutes and regular programming resumed. This type of fleeting hacking operation has been repeated many times […]
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“Russia’s military is gradually seizing more territory in Ukraine’s east … apparent[ly] aim [ing] … [to] cut[] off Ukrainian forces. But Ukrainian and Western officials and analysts say Moscow’s progress is slow and yet to achieve a decisive breakthrough. … [A]ny success in severing Ukrainian units’ supply lines may not be decisive … as Russian forces would be vulnerable to […]
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“Russian tanks were rolling over the border and Kyiv … was in … fear and panic. Street fighting broke out … [A] Russian armored column … advanced to within two miles of the office of … Zelensky. In those tense first days of the war, almost everyone … expected the Ukrainian leadership to fracture. Instead, [] Zelensky decided to personally […]
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(Article text Copyright © 2022 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – Todd Prince – April 24, 2022 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/medvedev-liberal-to-bellicose/31818941.html) Former President Dmitry Medvedev’s opinion article in the daily Kommersant in October 2021, ahead of Russia’s massive military buildup […]
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“Russia … warned the West that there would be a tough military response to any further attack on Russian territory, accusing the United States and its key allies of undermining European security by openly inciting Ukraine to assault Russia. Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands … displaced millions more and raised fears of the most serious confrontation […]
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“As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed into a grinding war of attrition with no meaningful peace deal in sight, the U.S. and its allies have begun to convey a new, longer-term goal … to defeat Russia so decisively on the battlefield that it will be deterred from launching such an attack ever again. … [O]n Monday … Secretary of […]
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“Russia told the United States to stop sending more arms to Ukraine, warning that large Western deliveries of weapons were inflaming the conflict and would lead to more losses …. Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands … displaced millions … and raised fears of a wider confrontation between Russia and the United States …. The United States […]
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“… The present U.S. position might be summarized thus: As U.S. forces fighting and killing Russians in Ukraine would ignite a U.S.-Russia war, which could escalate to nuclear war, we are not going to take that first step and risk the security and survival of our country, even if our staying out … means the defeat of Ukraine. Call it […]
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“… All this points to a long war. … mostly in Ukraine’s east and south …. The elements of a strategy for a long-term, open-ended war …: provide Ukraine with … weapons, ammunition, training, and intelligence … to defend itself …; make sure … NATO remains strong enough to discourage Russia from escalating the conflict or … [blocking Ukrainian] supplies […]
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“Soldiers, plus military brass and overseers in parliament, have been transformed from a rigid Soviet-style force into a modern army that thinks on the move.” “… [There has been] a little-publicized effort by [NATO] countries … that transformed Ukraine’s military up and down the ranks, from foot soldiers to the defense ministry to overseers in parliament. It is one big […]
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(Moscow Times – April 20, 2022) Natalia Poklonskaya has issued a harsh criticism of the pro-war Z symbol that has spread across Russia, the latest anti-war comments from the former Crimean prosecutor and onetime Russian lawmaker. The Latin letter — first seen displayed on Russian military vehicles entering Poklonskaya’s country of birth — has come to symbolize the public’s support […]
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“Russian forces Wednesday made incremental gains … in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas … as Western nations rushed more weapons to … Ukrain[e]…. In … Mariupol … Russia … insisted on … unconditional surrender and kept pounding … Ukrainian forces — … mostly holed up in the sprawling Azovstal steel plant — with artillery and airstrikes. Ukraine[] … said … that Russian […]
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“Russia on verge of capturing city; Zelensky warns ‘elimination’ of surrounded troops would endanger peace talks.” “… Ukrainian troops holding out in … Mariupol rejected Moscow’s [Sunday] ultimatum … [to] surrender or face destruction by Russian forces … Zelensky warned an all-out Russian assault on the troops would endanger further peace negotiations. … Russian forces are close to capturing the […]
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“A new strategy would mark a return to containment after years of seeking cooperation and coexistence with Moscow.” “… At NATO and the [EU] … and at the State Department … Pentagon and allied ministries, blueprints are being drawn up … [for] new policies across virtually every aspect of the West’s posture toward Moscow, from defense and finance to trade […]
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“… [T]he original text of some 200 words was replaced with two sentences: ‘Faced with death, silence is the most eloquent of words. Let us all paused in silent prayer and each one pray in their hearts for peace in the world.’ The crowd … then fell silent for about as long as it would have taken to read the […]
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“… [Cluster munitions] have been repeatedly used by the Russian military [in] Ukraine …. [with] their presence [linked] to … war-crimes allegations …. But [one] that landed [in a street in Husarivka in eastern Ukraine] … [was believed] likely to have been launched by … Ukrainian troops …. Nobody died in that strike … though at least two people were […]
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“Moscow-led institution risks alienating independent-minded clergy at home as well as many Ukrainians.” “… the Russian Orthodox Church … has thrown its ideological weight behind the Kremlin’s war. … risk[ing] [the] alienat[ion] [of] not only independently-minded clergy … but also many Ukrainians. … Patriarch Kirill … called on Russians to rally around their government so that the state could ‘repel […]
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“Port city on verge of capture by Russian forces; Ukrainian president describes situation as ‘inhuman,’ urges more talks” “Russia called on the last Ukrainian troops fighting in Mariupol to lay down arms on Sunday … as it closed in on capturing the strategic port city after weeks of heavy bombardment. … There was no indication … that the city’s defenders […]
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“William J. Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, cautioned that he had seen no ‘practical evidence’ that would suggest such a move was imminent.” “[CIA] director [William J. Burns] said … Thursday that ‘potential desperation’ to extract the semblance of a victory in Ukraine could tempt … Putin … to order the use of a tactical or low-yield […]
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“The formal diplomatic note from Moscow, a copy of which was reviewed by The Washington Post, came as President Biden approved a dramatic expansion in the scope of weapons being provided to the government in Kyiv.” “… [The] expansion in … weapons … provided to Ukraine[] [features] an $800 million package including 155 mm howitzers … coastal defense drones … […]
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“Russian strikes pounded a military factory near Kyiv that makes the missiles Ukraine claims it used to sink the Moskva naval flagship, with [the Kremlin] … vowing further such attacks. A workshop and an administrative building at the Vizar plant, which lies near Kyiv’s international Zhuliany airport, were seriously damaged in the overnight strikes …. Russia … announced it had […]
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“… U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres released … [a U.N. task force] report saying that … [Russia’s war on Ukraine] is ‘supercharging’ a crisis in food, energy and finance in poorer countries … already struggling to deal with … COVID-19 …, climate change and a lack of access to adequate funding for economic recovery. ‘We are now facing a perfect storm […]
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“… Putin is feeling the sting of failure. Thousands of Russian battlefield deaths. Three front-line retreats by the Russian military. Millions of Ukrainians who will never forgive Moscow. More isolation than ever — and perilously few goals achieved. Putin is now regrouping to focus … on Ukraine’s east … ‘Plan B,’ after his forces failed to topple Ukraine’s government or […]
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“Western governments prepared Wednesday to toughen sanctions against Russia and send more weapons to Ukraine, after … Zelenskyy pointedly accused the world of failing to end Moscow’s invasion of his country and what he said was a campaign of murders, rapes and wanton destruction by Russian forces. In scarred and silent streets of ruined towns around Ukraine’s capital, investigators collected […]
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“A video posted online on Monday and verified by The New York Times appears to show a group of Ukrainian soldiers killing captured Russian troops outside a village west of Kyiv. … The soldiers are lying in the road a few feet from a BMD-2, an infantry fighting vehicle used by Russian airborne units. Some appear to have had their […]
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“As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stalled and its forces have pivoted to … the east, the war is entering a new, darker, and more dangerous phase. Mariupol provides a preview …. The Vladimir Putin who bombed the Russian city of Grozny into rubble … to ‘liberate’ it … who joined … al-Assad in razing Aleppo[] certainly has no moral […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 763 – Serhiy Kudelia – April 4, 2022) Serhiy Kudelia is Associate Professor of Political Science, Baylor University, and URIS Fellow, University of Basel. In his speech declaring the launch of the so-called “limited military operation,” President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia had no plans to occupy Ukraine: “We are not planning to impose anything […]
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… We released information even before Russia’s invasion showing that Russia would engage in acts of brutality against civilians … including targeted killings of dissidents and others they deemed a threat to their occupation. And as the horrific images that have emerged from Bucha have shown, that’s exactly what they have done […]
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“Women and girls have recounted the abuse they have suffered at the hands of Russian soldiers.” “… [There is] a mounting body of evidence that summary executions, rape and torture have been used against civilians in areas under Russian control since the Kremlin launched the invasion [of Ukraine] …. Particularly difficult … to comprehend is the scale of the sexual […]
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“A Western aversion to casualties and fears of Russian nuclear use are impeding NATO intervention against a vastly inferior opponent.” “… Russia’s indiscriminate attacks against Ukrainian civilians … bombing hospitals and schools … [and] us[ing] of horrific weapons, such as cluster bombs and white phosphorus [] should drive the West to reevaluate … and take a more active role … […]
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“… It is becoming increasingly apparent that Putin’s invasion force has committed war crimes … echo[ing] the worst excesses of the totalitarian twentieth century. … reveal[ing] the genocidal intent at the heart of Putin’s Ukraine War. … bestial carnage point[ing] to a premeditated plan of extermination. Dead bodies lie strewn throughout the streets, many with … hands bound. Victims are […]
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“As the terrible destruction of Mariupol, Volnovakha, Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, and other eastern cities shows, Putin is determined to subjugate the Donbas even if that means slaughtering ostensibly pro-Russian eastern Ukrainians and torching what remains of Russia’s soft power …. stak[ing] his credibility on the Donbas … seem[ingly] determined to rule its smoking ruins rather than admit the insane folly of […]
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“Five weeks after Russian troops hurtled into the country in the hope of swiftly seizing the capital, installing a friendly government and subjugating Ukraine, the Russian military appears to be shrinking its goals to prioritize the east, redeploying forces that had been destined for the Kyiv region and attempting to organize reinforcements to compensate for the thousands of troops that […]
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“Neither has the incentive to commit to a long-term settlement without a clearer view on the likely course of the war.” “… For now neither side has an incentive to commit to a long-term settlement. … waiting for military breakthroughs and a clearer view on the likely course of the war. Should the prospect be one of a long stalemate, […]
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“Offensive maneuver comes as Russian forces regroup and Ukrainian troops press forward around Kyiv.” “Ukrainian attack helicopters executed a low-flying predawn raid on Russian territory, a Russian official said, eluding air defenses to strike an oil depot …. Security-camera footage released by Russian state-owned media … appeared to show several missiles firing at the depot and setting off explosions. Vyacheslav […]
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