Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 27-Dec. 4, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukrainian letter of solidarity with the Palestinian people” – Al Jazeera/ Ukraine-Palestine Solidarity Group

Map of Israel Also Featuring Gaza Strip, West Bank, Golan Heights, adapted from dni.gov image

“More than 300 Ukrainian scholars, activists and artists express their solidarity with Palestinians in an open letter.” “… As activists committed to freedom, human rights, democracy and social justice, and while fully acknowledging power differentials, we firmly condemn attacks on civilian populations – be they Israelis attacked by Hamas or Palestinians attacked by the Israeli occupation forces and armed settler […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The West Must Defeat Russia. Putin hasn’t given up his plans. He thinks Ukraine’s allies will lose interest.” – The Atlantic

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… Ukraine, the United States, and the [EU] … [w]orking together … have not only preserved the Ukrainian state, but stood up to a bully whose nihilism harms the entire world. Putin backs far-right and extremist movements in Europe, provides thugs to support African dictatorships, and colludes with China, Iran, Venezuela, and other autocracies. … Putin hoped the war would […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Does the Conflict in the Middle East Mean for Ukraine?” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Map of Israel Also Featuring Gaza Strip, West Bank, Golan Heights, adapted from dni.gov image

“Ukraine is reluctant to risk its hard-earned ties with the Global South, but it certainly cannot afford to lose irreplaceable Western assistance, leaving Kyiv with very little room for maneuver.” “… At first, the Ukrainian government reacted to the Hamas terrorist attacks … [like] most other countries … condemning the Palestinian militants and expressing … condolences to the Israelis. … […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova on ‘Face the Nation,’ Nov. 5, 2023” – CBS

Oksana Markarova file photo adapted from foreignrelations.senate.gov image

“MARGARET BRENNAN: … Your president has said that … the war in the Middle East is diverting some attention from the war that’s happening in Ukraine. And he said that’s part of Russia’s goals. So I want to hear from you, where you think the conflict is, because I know that Ukraine has said it is running very short of […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 23-30, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Russia and Hamas Are Growing Closer” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Gaza Strip map adapted from cia.gov image

“Moscow’s relationship with the militant group Hamas is part of a Middle East strategy meant to boost its standing in the Global South: an effort that has long involved building ties with both Israel and its sworn enemies.” “… The Kremlin purports to take a hard stance on terrorism. Yet since the massacre in southern Israel carried out by Hamas […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Three Weapons That Israel and Ukraine Both Need From the U.S.” – New York Times

File Photo of Stinger Missile on Shoulder of U.S. Army Personnel, adapted from army.mil image

“… [A DOD] official said … tens of thousands of 155-millimeter artillery shells promised to Ukraine would be diverted to Israel. … an example of the American weapons … [reportedly] needed in both wars, which could stretch … U.S. capacity to keep up …. especially … if Israel’s expected [Gaza] ground offensive … lasts for months. … Ukraine and Israel […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Israel-Gaza War Means Hard Choices for Ukraine” – New York Times

Israel Map, adapted from cdc.gov image

“… [W]ith the massacres in Israel and the unfolding Israeli assault on Gaza, we have a new front of engagement for American power, a new demand for U.S. resources, a new stress point for our stressed imperium and new risks of a wider war. … [T]here are real strategic choices …, potential trade-offs in hardware shipped and dollars delivered …. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China” – Wall Street Journal

Israel Map, adapted from cdc.gov image

“Moscow and Beijing seek to ride the wave of solidarity with Palestinians while taking advantage of American distraction” “The war between Israel and Hamas … is also affecting the global balance of power, stretching American and European resources while relieving pressure on Russia and providing new opportunities to China. … [F]or now, the war launched by Hamas on Oct. 7 […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) As violence escalated between Israel and Hamas after the latter’s indiscriminate attacks against the former, top Russian officials seized the opportunity to blame the crisis on what they described as America’s repeated failure to use its “monopoly” on mediation between the two sides to reach a fair peace deal. Vladimir Putin has also called for a cessation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Russia is engaged in a delicate balancing act in the Israeli-Palestinian war” – AP

Israel Map, adapted from cdc.gov image

“The Israeli-Palestinian war has forced Russia into a delicate balancing act … urging a quick end to the fighting without apportioning blame. … due to Russia’s long ties to Israel, the Palestinians and other regional players, and …[a] hope to expand [Russia’s] clout in the Middle East by playing peacemaker. … Moscow has repeatedly hosted Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Offers Muted Response to Attack on Israel. That Speaks Volumes.” – New York Times

Map of Israel, Palestine, Holy Land

Vladimir Putin has long projected friendly ties to Israel. But his silence since Saturday’s assault illustrates how the war in Ukraine has strained the relationship between the two countries. “… [A]mid the worst attack on Israel in 50 years, the high regard … [] Putin has shown for Israel in the past appears remarkably absent. … [with] no message of […]

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Kissinger on Russia: Insights and Recommendations

Henry Kissinger File Photo, with Military Officer and Others in Background; adapted from image at defense.gov,; original image was DoD photo by Air Force Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How the Ukraine war has divided the world; China is making diplomatic progress with countries that are unhappy about America’s approach to the conflict” – Financial Times

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“… China has also made recent headway with its Middle East diplomacy. … [especially with] Iran and Saudi Arabia … broker[ing] a deal to restore diplomatic relations between [them]. … [Global] developments [relating to Chinese influence] are causing some concern in Washington. … A significant divergence in attitudes to the war in Ukraine is driving [global] shifts [in attitudes towards […]

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Despite Russian Reliance on Iranian Drones, Tehran’s Leverage Over Moscow Is Limited

Map of Iran with Iranian Flag, adapted and edited from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Mark N. Katz, Vlad Wallace – Dec. 1, 2022) Mark N. Katz is a professor of government and politics at the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. The opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. Student associate Vlad Wallace researched and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia maintains grip on global nuclear energy landscape” – Financial Times

File Image of Radioactive Atom, adapted from image at lanl.gov

“Increasing use of atomic power would not necessarily free economies from Moscow’s influence.” “Faced with a global energy crisis and a race to slash emissions, advanced economies are starting to reconsider nuclear power after … declining investment. … But an atomic shift does not necessarily free a country from energy dependence on Russia, given the scale of the country’s presence […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian foreign minister seeks to bolster alliances during Africa tour” – Financial Times

Egyptian Pyramids, Camel in Foreground, Men in Background, adapted from image at state.gov

“Sergei Lavrov aims to combat idea that Ukraine invasion has caused higher food and fertiliser prices.” “… Lavrov’s tour of Egypt, Republic of Congo, Uganda and Ethiopia comes as African countries struggle with soaring food and fertiliser prices. … [T]he west has sought to isolate Moscow over [Ukraine]… [yet] the welcome [Lavrov] has received has shown the strength of [Russia’s] […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2022” – Moscow Times

Satellite

The Moscow Times asked 10 commentators for their predictions for the coming year […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia supports withdrawal of foreign fighters from Libya” – AP

File Photo of Ancient Roman Arch in Libya Framing Minaret and Palm Trees, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… Lavrov said after the talks … with Najla Mangoush that the Libyan leadership ‘is forming a consultative mechanism … to formulate the concrete parameters’ under which … foreign forces will leave. Russia was among … foreign powers backing … warring sides in Libya’s conflict … [S]ome officials and media … alleg[ed] … Russian private military contractors took part in […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov: We can’t talk about eradicating terrorism in Afghanistan in near future” – Interfax

Afghanistan houses aerial view, adapted from image at state.gov

(Interfax – Aug. 12, 2021) Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov, who is responsible for international anti-terrorist cooperation, has given an interview to Interfax in which he speaks about interaction with the United States on counterterrorism, the activity of ISIL, which is banned in Russia, and other terrorist organizations in Syria and Afghanistan. He also said that it is impossible […]

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Why Russian Oil Giant Lukoil Won’t Give Up On This Huge Oilfield

Iraq Map, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Oilprice.com – Simon Watkins – Aug. 10, 2021) There was always something that did not look quite right about Lukoil’s recent announcement that it was going to withdraw from Iraq’s huge West Qurna 2 oil field, located 65 kilometers northwest of the southern port of Basra and with roughly 14 billion barrels of reserves in place. So it has proven, […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kremlin fears ‘instability’ after U.S. withdrawal from Iraq” – Interfax

Dmitry Peskov file photo adapted from image at kremlin.ru/wikimedia commons

(Interfax – July 27, 2021) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman has said that the planned withdrawal of US troops from Iraq may lead to greater ‘instability’ in the region. “Now it is too early to second-guess events, but we would not like to see, in general, one more territory added to the regional potential for instability,” Dmitry Peskov told journalists […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s harsh condemnation of Israel – What does it mean for the future?” – Jerusalem Post

Jerusalem At Night, adapted from image at cia.gov

“Though such tough language directed at Israel has not been heard since the days of the Soviet Union, it is still very premature to declare Russia returning to its Middle East policies of the Cold War.” “… [H]ostilities between Israel and Hamas [have] produced a number of new developments, … tactical and strategic …. Russia’s harsh condemnation of Israel’s actions […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia: Foreign Policy and U.S. Relations [Excerpt]” – Congressional Research Service

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rise to leadership more than 20 years ago, tensions have increased steadily between Russia and the United States […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Leaders of Russia, France, Germany discuss global crises” – AP

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

The leaders of Russia, France and Germany met by conference call … discuss[ing] coronavirus vaccines, the Iranian nuclear standoff[,] … eastern Ukraine, Libya … Syria [and Navalny] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia seizes on Suez blockage to promote merits of Arctic route” – Financial Times

Suez Canal and Environs Aerial File Photo, adapted from image at nasa.gov

Moscow is busy highlighting the northern sea route and Nordstream as alternatives for world trade […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Could Russia Benefit From the Suez Canal Blockage?” – Moscow Times

Suez Canal and Environs Aerial File Photo, adapted from image at nasa.gov

The Kremlin wants to use the grounding of the Ever Given ship to promote its Northern Sea Route and counter European concerns over Nord Stream 2. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – March 26, 2021) Almost $300 million worth of Russian oil products are waiting to enter the Suez Canal, which remains closed following the grounding of the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. and Russia have a rare opportunity to work together on a peace deal” – Washington Post/ David Ignatius

Map of Armenia and Environs

“… Russia and the United States … are co-chairs of a group … seeking to broker a peace deal [addressing] …. the long-frozen standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan … with roots in ethnic and territorial disputes which this month became a hot war with barrages of artillery …. a rare convergence of interest between Russia and the United States, two […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russians Join Calls Urging Turkey Not to Revert One of Christendom’s Most Famous Churches into a Mosque” – CNS News/ Dimitri Simes

Turkey and Environs Satellite Image

“Russian lawmakers adopted a resolution … calling on Turkey not to change the status of Istanbul’s famed Hagia Sophia from … museum to … mosque, warning that Russia’s … relations with Turkey could be harmed …. Hagia Sophia was the seat of the Eastern Orthodox Church for nearly 900 years before being turned into a mosque in the 15th century. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, Seeking to Bolster its Influence, Steps Up Intervention in Libyan Conflict” – CNSNews/ Dimitri Simes

U.S. Africa Command Screenshot from Defense Department Video of Russian Fighter Jet in Flight

“Russia is reportedly stepping up … involvement in the Libyan civil war … in recent years … a heated proxy conflict drawing in numerous foreign players … [with] a range of motives. … U.S. Africa Command issued a statement, … with satellite imagery, accusing Russia of deploying 14 fighter jets to Libya in support of the Wagner Group, a Russian […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Moscow’s War in Syria” – CSIS

Syria Map

“… Russia’s military and diplomatic campaign in Syria [has been] the largest and most significant Russian out-of-area operation since the end of the Cold War. … and will shape [Russia’s] military thinking, influence promotion and personnel decisions, impact research and development for its arms industry, and expand its influence …. [D]espite the importance of Russia’s involvement in Syria – especially […]

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Luis Alcalá: “Re: ‘Three Russian doctors fall from hospital windows'”

Medical Symbol with Pole, Serpents, Wings

Subject: [UTExpertsDiscGrp] Re: “Three Russian doctors fall from hospital windows” Date: Thu, 7 May 2020 From: Luis Alcalá <luismalcala@gmail.com> It is a waste of time to comment on these news. In England and the USA, medical personnel commit suicide and nobody says it is the fault of Trump or Boris, but in the news about Russian suicides or accidents they […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Has a Syria ‘Headache’ and the Kremlin’s Blaming Assad” – Bloomberg/ Henry Meyer, Ilya Arkhipov

Syria Map

“… Putin is … impatien[t] … with Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad, who isn’t … [sufficiently] grateful for being kept in power by Russian intervention …. Consumed … by … twin shocks of collapsing oil prices and the coronavirus epidemic … eager to wrap up his Syrian military adventure by declaring victory, Putin is insisting that Assad show more flexibility in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump, Putin, Saudi Crown Prince Scramble to Fix Oil Markets” – Wall Street Journal/ Georgi Kantchev, Summer Said, Andrew Restuccia, Justin Scheck

Offshore Oil Rig file photo

All three leaders face economic threat from low prices. Moscow and Riyadh bury the hatchet. “… On Thursday, Saudi Arabia and Russia ended their stalemate and convinced a handful of other major oil producers to join them in the biggest monthly oil-production cut ever. … Mexico … [also] said it would reduce … production by 100,000 barrels a day …. […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia will have to cut oil output by 1.8 mln bpd under OPEC+ deal” – Interfax

Oil Well file photo

MOSCOW. April 10 (Interfax) – OPEC+ countries agreed on Thursday to cut oil production by 10 million barrels per day from the October 2018 level, although for Russia and Saudi Arabia the baseline for the cut will be 11 million bpd, a communique from the meeting seen by Interfax shows. OPEC+ countries, the communique said, produced 43.85 million bpd in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Syria gamble under pressure as Turkey attacks in Idlib; Erdogan threatens further escalation of hostilities before Moscow meeting” – Financial Times/ Henry Foy

Syria Map

“Turkish attacks on Russian-backed forces in the Syrian province of Idlib are testing Moscow’s relationship with Ankara …. Seeking to avenge the killing last week of 34 Turkish soldiers, … Erdogan has bombarded Syrian regime targets in the province … warning that the destruction of fighter jets and killing of more than 100 pro-regime combatants is ‘only the beginning.’ The […]

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Russia Is Defeating The U.S. In The Middle East Oil Game

Middle East Map

(Oilprice.com – Simon Watkins – February 18, 2020) Historically, Russia goes to great lengths to hide or disguise its strategic intentions but it clearly feels empowered enough in the Middle East to very obviously stake its claim in the region – excluding, for the time being only, Saudi Arabia – by stating that a slew of Russian companies are to […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Has Russia Discovered a New Foreign Policy Template? An Interview with Angela Stent” – Kennan Institute/ Angela Stent, Maxim Trudolyubov

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Maxim Trudolyubov, Angela Stent – October 22, 2019 – wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/has-russia-discovered-new-foreign-policy-template-interview-angela-stent) Maxim Trudolyubov is a Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute and the Editor-at-Large of Vedomosti, an independent Russian daily. Following latest talks, Russia has agreed to help Turkey create a “safe zone” in northeastern Syria that is free of Kurdish fighters Ankara views as a […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Still possible to prevent Tehran’s possible withdrawal from JCPOA, NPT – Russian ambassador to Iran” – Interfax

Iran Map and Flag

MOSCOW. May 30 (Interfax) – Moscow will deeply regret Iran’s potential withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), but there is still a chance to avert this negative scenario, Russian Ambassador to Iran Levan Dzhagaryan said in an interview published in the newspaper Izvestia on Thursday. “Doubtlessly, Iran’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Economy Gives Putin Reasons Not to Extend OPEC+ Deal” – Bloomberg/ Olga Tanas

Oil Well file photo

“The OPEC+ pact is hurting the Russian economy, potentially giving … Putin a reason not to agree on an extension …. While higher crude prices can bring … additional revenue, production cuts are weighing on one of the country’s biggest industries. … [Putin] may have to weigh his desire for faster economic growth against the benefits of his alliance with […]

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Interview: Russia Seeks To ‘Capitalize On Opportunities’ In Libya

File Photo of Ancient Roman Arch in Libya Framing Minaret and Palm Trees, adapted from image at cia.gov

(Article text ©2019 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Tony Wesolowsky – April 10, 2019 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/interview-russia-seeks-to-capitalize-on-opportunities-in-libya/29873341.html) The situation is escalating in Libya, where more than 30 people have been killed since fighting broke out on April 4, when forces loyal to Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar launched an offensive against the internationally […]

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