Politics, Government, Protests, Elections
“More than a year into the war he launched … Putin is confronted with failure. Over months of offensives, the Russian war machine faltered badly, failing to capture Kyiv and buckling on other fronts …. What Putin spuriously billed as a mission to ‘denazify’ Russia’s neighbor has turned into … grinding, attritional battles, punctuated by reports of Russian atrocities and […]
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“… Often, the Kremlin has initially appeared to take a maximalist course. Instead of invading eastern Ukraine, it launched a full-scale assault on the whole country and tried to take Kyiv. In addition to deploying tanks, missiles, and heavy artillery, Putin has repeatedly made threats about using nuclear weapons. And he has seemingly been willing to sacrifice tens of thousands […]
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(PONARS Eurasia policy memo No. 834 – Cole J. Harvey – March 3, 2023) Cole J. Harvey is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Oklahoma State University PDF: PONARS Eurasia policy memo No. 834 Some of the most dramatic conclusions to an authoritarian regime have come when mass protests arise against a rigged election. Images of banner-waving […]
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“… Americans and others who closely studied the Communist leadership of the Soviet Union used to be called ‘Kremlinologists.’ Now there’s a new generation of analysts who could be called ‘Putinologists,’ those seeking to understand Russia today by deconstructing its leader and the war he’s waging in Ukraine. … Kremlinolgists tried to interpret the Soviet Union from fragmentary information coming […]
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“… From its outset, the system built by … Putin was based on the idea of a disengaged public, with matters of political and civic concern left to those on high. Even as the space for independent political and civic action shrank to near zero and real living standards declined, most Russians saw little reason to participate in collective action: […]
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“… Russia will not become a democracy until it falls apart. That’s because Russia is not really a nation-state but the same premodern multiethnic empire living on geographic expansion and resource looting as 300 years ago — and is thus doomed to reproduce, again and again, under whatever ideological cover, the same prison-ward-like political structure that alone keeps it together. […]
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“A year on from the disastrous invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin could be just one crisis away from collapse.” “… Putin is notorious for asking Russian historians how he will be judged a hundred years hence. With his invasion of Ukraine, he has ensured that he will be assessed a failure, an example of the way hubris can devour any […]
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“… In Ukraine, what is it that he’s gained? … [H]e’s hurt Russia’s reputation — it’s far worse than it ever was. He consolidated the Ukrainian nation, whose existence he denied. He is expanding NATO, when his stated aim was to push NATO back from the expansion undertaken since 1997. He’s even got Sweden applying for NATO membership. And, so, […]
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(Moscow Times – Nurbek Savitahunov, Samantha Berkhead, Pyotr Kozlov – Feb. 21, 2023) President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday vowed to press onward with Russia’s war in Ukraine and railed against the West for a litany of wrongdoings in his first state-of-the-nation address since invading Ukraine one year ago. Addressing lawmakers from both houses of parliament alongside other members of the […]
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(Moscow Times – Feb. 20, 2023) Jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny published a 15-point plan outlining his view of Russia’s future in the postwar era on Monday, predicting Russia’s “military defeat” and outlining his plans to transform Russia into a parliamentary republic. Entitled “15 theses of a Russian citizen who desires the best for their country,” Navalny’s Twitter thread was […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. officials are telling Ukrainian leaders that they are facing a critical moment to change the trajectory of the war, raising the pressure on Kyiv to make significant gains on the battlefield while aid from the West is flowing, WP reported. “We can’t do anything and everything forever,” one senior administration official said, warning that it will […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Warnings by Ukrainian officials of a coming Russian offensive have multiplied in the past few days. A Ukraine military intelligence official has told the Kyiv Post that the Russian attack is expected to come around Feb. 24, while an adviser to the Ukrainian military told FT that the offensive could come within 10 days. Better trained and equipped […]
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“The Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is visibly transforming into a full-fledged politician with his own views, which are nothing short of revolutionary.” “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought unprecedented infamy to Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group. … while debate rages over how close he really is to … Putin, what privileges he enjoys, and even whether […]
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(Oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Feb. 7, 2023) Russia’s budget was $24.7 billion (1.76 trillion rubles) into deficit in January. Total budget revenues slumped by 35% last month compared to the same month of 2022. The low price of Russia’s flagship grade is reducing Russian revenues from oil due to the steep discount at which Urals trades relative to the […]
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“… Those who fear Putin have either fled the country or are silent. The regime has a formidable arsenal of instruments to deploy against anyone who speaks out or otherwise expresses opposition. It has used the legal system to crush any dissent, handing down Stalinist prison terms to antiwar activists. It has invented its own equivalent of yellow stars to […]
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(Moscow Times – Farida Rustamova, Maxim Tovkaylo – Jan. 29, 2023) Talk of a second mobilization wave in Russia has been on everyone’s lips in recent weeks. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov claimed it would begin at the start of January. And, citing Western intelligence officials, CNN reported last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin was considering drafting a further […]
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“When it comes to regime change, there’s an important relationship between regime opponents inside the country, and exiles outside the country. This has played out over and over again in history, particularly in Russia. This dynamic will be important to whatever happens in Russia in the wake of … Putin’s ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine. … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has […]
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(Moscow Times – Jan. 26, 2023) The U.S.-produced fly-on-the-wall documentary “Navalny,” which followed the now-jailed Russian anti-corruption campaigner and Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny during the aftermath of a poisoning attempt in 2020, was nominated for an Academy Award on Tuesday. The film, directed by Daniel Roher, shows Navalny during his recuperation in Berlin from poisoning with nerve agent Novichok and […]
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“Reports that Russian forces have systematically looted Ukrainian museums drives home the reality that … Putin’s policies mirror those of … Hitler. …. Like rape, torture and murder, some of those actions could be blamed on lack of direction from military leaders, but repeated missile attacks on civilian dwellings and infrastructure can only be due to high-level strategic planning. … […]
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“A Ukrainian victory could lead to the fall of the Russia Federation as we know it, according to one European economist. … Given that Russia is currently divided into a total of 89 regions — including 21 republics, 6 federal territories, 2 federal cities (Moscow and St. Petersburg), 49 regions, 1 autonomous region and 10 autonomous areas — [the economist] […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Jan. 6-13, 2023) 4 Things to Know Latest reshuffle leaves Gen. Valery Gerasimov personally responsible for the military outcomes of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has fired Gen. Sergei Surovikin as the commander of Russia’s joint group of forces in Ukraine, installing chief of the General Staff Gen. Gerasimov in his place. The Jan. […]
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“It is tempting to see Putin’s war as a total failure. From Kyiv to Kherson, Russia has endured significant battlefield losses. It has solidified Western support for Ukraine … and provoked a formidable response from Kyiv. As Ukraine’s military improves, Russia’s prospects for ending the war on its terms are fading …. Russia also faces sanctions …. But … the […]
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“Ever since Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv and install a puppet government failed in the early days of the war, a defeat for the Kremlin in Ukraine has looked increasingly likely. What’s stunning … is the near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia. … considering the potential for Russia’s […]
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(Abdujalil Abdurasulov – Twitter @abdujalil – BBC News Video Journalist. Primarily report on Ukraine, Russia and the rest of the “Eurasian region”. Based in Kyiv. – Jan. 6, 2023) Of coz this is not a scientific assessment. But it was an interesting observation to learn their perceptions. Many in the West think that ppl in #Russia will start questioning the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Jan. 4, 2023) When Russian President Vladimir Putin stepped down after a second term in 2008, making way for his protégé Dmitry Medvedev to have a stint in the Kremlin, speculation about which man was genuinely in charge became something of a sport. Now that Putin once more faces the constitutionally mandated end of his […]
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(Article text Copyright © 2022 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – January 4, 2023 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/russia-khasbulatov-soviet-chairman-dies/32207078.html) Ruslan Khasbulatov, a Russian politician whose dramatic standoff with then-President Boris Yeltsin in 1993 led to the deadly shelling of the parliament […]
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(Moscow Times – Dec. 27, 2022) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the United States on Tuesday against ordering a “decapitation strike” on President Vladimir Putin. Lavrov’s comments refer to an anonymous U.S. military official telling Newsweek back in September that a special operation “to kill Putin in the heart of the Kremlin” had been “front and center” among the […]
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(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Dec. 18, 2022) Almost all the members of Putin’s entourage are coming to the conclusion that Russia will lose the war in Ukraine if the Kremlin doesn’t change course, Tatiana Stanovaya says; and consequently, “a divide is forming around one key question: what to do if Russia loses this war?” Until the […]
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“Once thought of as reformers, the president’s economic confidants have ended up as enablers of an invasion they warned against.” “One month before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine … Putin’s top economic confidants … brief[ed] him on the likely fallout from western sanctions. … Gref … led a 39-page presentation warning … of disastrous consequences …. Nabiullina … […]
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“The meetings with his top brass seemed to signal a shift from his largely hands-off public posture to one conveying a more active role in war planning.” “… Putin … made a surprise visit to a command post coordinating the Russian war effort in Ukraine, the Kremlin said …. Putin spent the day on Friday in the military headquarters in […]
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(Moscow Times – Pyotr Kozlov – Dec. 15, 2022) The cancellation of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual press conference earlier this week was a last minute decision taken due to growing fears the televised event would be dominated by the Ukraine war, six Kremlin and government officials told The Moscow Times. Putin has held 17 such press conferences — a […]
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“… Putin has imposed Stalin-like restrictions on speech about the military and its disastrous invasion of Ukraine. … [O]pposition politician Ilya Yashin was sentenced to 8½ years in prison for calling attention to possible war crimes … in … Bucha … another attempt to lock up the truth. … The barbarism that has taken place in Ukraine is being closely […]
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“Russia is heading toward a final battle between the radicals, for whom escalation is a way of life, and the realists, who understand that continuing to up the ante could lead to their country’s collapse.” “There was already talk of a possible split within the Russian elite two months ago, after Russia’s hurried retreat from Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. Since then, […]
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“As … Putin doubles down on his war in Ukraine …. [s]ome observers have predicted that [Putin] could be overthrown; others even hope for a breakup of the country. … Could Russia splinter? Russia’s geography makes cohesiveness elusive. Spanning 11 time zones, it is the largest nation … by landmass. Twenty percent of its population is not ethnically Russian but […]
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(Moscow Times – Dec. 12, 2022) Russian President Vladimir Putin has canceled his annual end-of-year press conference for the first time in 10 years, the Kremlin announced on Monday, as the war in Ukraine enters its 10th month. “As for the big press conference, yes, it won’t happen before the New Year,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “But we […]
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“… The Ukrainians’ courage and determination to defend their independence is a historic chance for the United States and Europe to deliver a decisive blow to Russian imperialism and toxic nationalism. But so far, the major Western powers hesitate to throw their weight behind this outcome. Ukraine, strongly supported by the Baltic countries and Poland, insists that Russia must be […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – José Alaniz – Dec. 7, 2022) BOOK REVIEW “Accidental Czar: The Life and Lies of Vladimir Putin” By Andrew S. Weiss and Brian “Box” Brown First Second, November 2022 Andrew S. Weiss and cartoonist Brian “Box” Brown’s first-ever graphic biography “Accidental Czar: The Life and Lies of Vladimir Putin” opens with an arresting anecdote: thirty-something […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 5, 2022) While rightly helping Ukraine to defend itself, the Pentagon and weapons contractors should not be allowed to exploit the crisis to expand the U.S. arms industry “in ways that go far beyond what is needed to help Ukraine in its current conflict,” according to William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible […]
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“The Kremlin’s crackdown on dissent has gone from being focused on particular targets to broadly criminalizing any criticism of the government or its war – and it is casting a pall over Russian society.” “… Mikhail Lobanov, a local political activist in the Moscow suburb of Ramenki, put a little sign on his balcony that said ‘No War.’ … [O]ne […]
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“The head of U.S. intelligence says fighting in Russia’s war in Ukraine is running at a ‘reduced tempo’ and suggests Ukrainian forces could have brighter prospects in coming months. … [T]he British Ministry of Defense … pointed to … public support in Russia for the military campaign … ‘falling significantly.’ Meduza said it obtained a recent confidential opinion survey conducted […]
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(Moscow Times – Nov. 29, 2022) A longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Alexei Kudrin, stepped down Tuesday as the head of the country’s Audit Chamber amid reports he will oversee the reconstruction of tech giant Yandex following sanctions over Ukraine. Kudrin, a former finance minister who has a reputation of being an economic liberal in Moscow, has been […]
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“Russia’s current condition — militarized, isolated, corrupt, dominated by the security services and hemorrhaging talent as hundreds of thousands flee abroad to escape service in a horrific war — is bleak. In hopes of an end to this grim reality, some wait expectantly for … Putin to leave office. To change the country, however, it is not enough for [] […]
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“An argument on Russian state television is a ‘good sign’ that the country’s leadership is cracking, according to [] former U.S. [A]mbassador [McFaul]. Russia [reportedly] has threatened to nationalize assets of Western companies … pull[ing] resources from the country following its [Ukraine] invasion …. Hundreds of companies have already left Russia after expressing dissatisfaction with the war … [I]f the […]
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“… The cultural weight of the past is heavy, and the habits of autocracy — especially the habit of living in fear — persist. The attraction of power is also strong. … and the next government of Russia might well be even more repressive …. Countries evolve, sometimes creating better governments … sometimes worse …. Empires fall: The Russian empire […]
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“It’s difficult to discern any real growth in the influence of the hardliners. They are trying to push Putin down a narrow corridor of escalation, but there are no signs that the president is actually listening to them.” “The longer Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, the more prominent the party of war becomes …. Hardly a day goes by without […]
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“Can … Putin lose the war in Ukraine and retain power? As Ukraine’s driving counteroffensive erodes Russia’s position on the battlefield, that question is getting increasing attention. Discussion has focused on the possibility of a coup, whether an armed insurrection by disgruntled Russian generals or a mutiny by Kremlin insiders. Although not impossible, neither … is … very likely. … […]
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“… In one fundamental sense little has changed in this war since the end of February. Ukraine is determined to resist the Russian invasion and is both confident in its ability to do so and fearful of the dire consequences should it fail. For the war to end Russia must accept that it cannot subjugate Ukraine and must give up […]
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“While loyal to the Kremlin, a rising number of nationalist critics are taking aim at military commanders as they chart the Ukraine conflict on social media.” “… [There is] a burgeoning group of ‘patriotic’ critics in Russia who support the war, but are concerned by Moscow’s handling of it. They generally avoid criticising Putin directly and instead frequently take aim […]
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“Russia’s chaotic mobilization of troops has ended, its goals largely met. But the public is still coming to grips with the psychological stresses of the process – and of the ongoing war in Ukraine.” “Under Russia’s Constitution, men have the right to seek alternative service if their health or personal beliefs preclude being drafted into the army. … [T]he Movement […]
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1. Washington should convey to Moscow that the U.S. doesn’t seek Russia’s destruction and wants to avoid direct military conflict, according to David Ignatius. Furthermore, the U.S. should resume discussion of Putin’s 2021 calls for security assurances from NATO as the time has come “for urgent talks about how to keep this terrible war from becoming something vastly worse,” Ignatius […]
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