Politics, Government, Protests, Elections
(The Kennan Institute – Igor Slabykh – April 5, 2024 – wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/crocus-attack-may-end-ban-death-penalty-russia) [Igor Slabykh is a lawyer and manager with twenty years of experience in Russia and the U.S.; he holds a law degree from the Moscow State Open University and an LLM from the George Washington University Law School.] Fifteen years after the death penalty was abolished in Russia, […]
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“Russian budget revenues in the first quarter of 2024 reached 8.7tn ($94bn) roubles … marking year-on-year growth of more than half, [according to the Russian] finance ministry …. Energy revenues, … a third of Russia’s total budget earnings, surged by almost 80 per cent … [due to] high oil prices and one-off [energy exporter tax-related] payments …. Non-oil and gas […]
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“… Even when government campaigns are successful, they struggle for momentum. … Russian propaganda has been pushing stories about how wonderful the Russian medical care is – despite problems …. Such propaganda campaigns work for a few weeks, but then the conversation around this topic on social media becomes negative, and the Kremlin tries to drive it up again. Likewise […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know Russian forces have gained 23 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 0 square miles in the past month, according to the April 2, 2024, issue of the Belfer Center’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Most recently, Russian forces have advanced into the outskirts of the town of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine, […]
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“In an unusual move, U.S. officials shared highly specific information about a terrorist plot with an adversary country” “More than two weeks before terrorists staged a bloody attack in the suburbs of Moscow, the U.S. government told Russian officials that Crocus City Hall, a popular concert venue, was a potential target, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. The […]
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“Analysts of Russia differ about … the roots of Russia’s ongoing aggression. One side argues that Russian history and political culture are to blame …. The other side argues that the causes are … typical of … certain kinds of states, regimes, societies and leaders. … How can this vicious circle be broken? Since Russian history is [that of] of […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan) One of the multiple factors that propelled the then relatively unknown apparatchik Vladimir Putin to the pinnacle of power in Russia in late 1999/early 2000, was his ability to convince many members of the Russian elite and the public that he was the kind of leader who not only promised to protect them […]
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“Campaign is part of push to divert attention from security failures, analysts say” “Reeling from an apparent security lapse that allowed … heavily-armed men to massacre dozens of concertgoers in Moscow … Russia has gone into overdrive advancing a narrative that pins the blame on a usual suspect: Ukraine. Western officials have said Islamic State is responsible for the March […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore The March 22 terrorist attack on a concert hall outside Moscow, in which more than 130 people were killed and for which ISIS claimed responsibility, is a “reminder of the fatal results of mutual distrust in the US-Russian relations,” Anatol Lieven writes in reference to the fact that the U.S. did warn Russia on March […]
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“… [T]he glaring failure of Putin’s security state to prevent the gruesome assault — despite the U.S. warning of March 7 that a strike on a concert hall could be imminent — may endanger the Russian government’s social contract with its people. The attack, which underscored the country’s continuing vulnerability to terrorist acts, came just days after Putin’s victory in […]
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“… In the past the Kremlin acknowledged its opponent and dealt ruthlessly with Islamist extremists. This time … Putin made no mention of the organization that credibly claimed responsibility, an Afghan offshoot of the Islamic State known as ISIS-K, and instead cast indirect and utterly unsubstantiated suspicion on Ukraine. … [T]he claim reflected Putin’s problem: coming on the heels of […]
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“Authoritarian system promised security. Now the Kremlin confronts Islamist terrorism at home and a costly war abroad.” “Last week, … Putin dismissed American warnings of an imminent terrorist attack and urged leaders of the country’s security services to focus on catching Ukrainian spies instead. Three days later, Islamic State gunmen rampaged through a concert hall outside Moscow, killing more than […]
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“… Putin staked his campaign largely on the war, which he blames the West for provoking. …[T]he war’s negative effects are becoming hard to ignore. … [T]he Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service says Russians are suffering from ‘war fatigue’ … ‘… weariness, coupled with a desire to minimize the war’s direct impact on themselves personally and those close to them.’ … […]
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U.S. Department of State March 19, 2024 On Russia’s Presidential Elections PRESS STATEMENT ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE Russia’s recent presidential election occurred in an environment of intense repression of independent voices and the imprisonment, death, or exile of virtually all genuine political opposition. The Kremlin has systematically marginalized groups advocating for democratic processes and rule of law, including […]
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“A host of Western countries reject the results of Russia’s sham election” “… Long before the first ballot was cast, it was clear … Putin, … dictator since 1999, would win by a predetermined, overwhelming majority. … Voting … was strictly supervised. In illegally occupied parts of Ukraine, voters cast their ballots at gunpoint. [] Putin faced no credible opponents: […]
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“As Russians go to the polls, the economy is booming and the public feels hopeful about the future. But the politics of Putinism still depend on the absence of any means to challenge it.” “… Putin has ruled … for nearly a quarter century, just a few years shy of Stalin’s epoch-spanning grip …. No genuine opposition candidates have been […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – March 15, 2024) Russia’s presidential election, whose outcome is near certain to grant Vladimir Putin a fifth term, got underway on March 15. Given the inevitability of Putin’s victory in what one Kremlin-connected insider has described as a “well-designed simulation,” one might wonder what impact the Russian election has on the U.S. […]
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(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Mar. 11, 2024) Many of the mistakes Western elites have made about Russia and that Moscow elites have made about their own county arise from misconceptions each has about Russia’s future, Vladimir Pastukhov says. The West has mistakenly assumed Russia is in terminal decline while Moscow elites think they can restore the […]
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(Moscow Times – Lucy Birge – March 15, 2024) The killing of Alexei Navalny four weeks before the Russian presidential election appears to portray an increasingly brazen and self-assured Kremlin. Yet its treatment of ultra-nationalist Igor Strelkov tells a different story, that the Kremlin is afraid of ultra-nationalism as a political force. On Jan. 25, 2024, Ukraine and Russia became […]
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“Wages are soaring, unemployment falling amid labor shortage Budget deficit, dwindling reserves pose long-term challenges” “… Though the war has left hundreds of thousands killed or wounded, and long-term challenges continue to build with officials still wrestling [with] inflation … , for now, [Putin] is pointing to the economy and claiming success. The government is spending massively on social support […]
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“… [Russian] voting … conclud[ing] … Sunday is all but certain to allow Putin to remain in office until 2030, giving him a full three decades of leading Russia as either president or prime minister. … [T]hat long tenure and the thorough suppression of effective domestic opposition voices gives Putin a very strong — and perhaps unrestrained — hand … […]
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“[Russia’s] presidential vote … begins Friday and lasts through Sunday … but is more of a predetermined, Soviet-style referendum. … Putin, 71, will undoubtedly win a fifth term, with none of the three other candidates … permitted on the ballot presenting a real challenge. The main opposition figure who worked to spoil the vote, Aleksei A. Navalny, a harsh critic […]
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“… Early-stage Putinism was marked by … public complacency and indifference. Complacency flourished when the Russian economy expanded between 2000 and 2008 … enabling the rise of a Russian middle class. Indifference, which the Kremlin inculcated in part by discouraging public participation in politics, assisted in the regime’s creeping authoritarianism. One need not love Putin; it was sufficient to merely […]
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“Russia’s presidential election appears largely a rote exercise, as a popular, unchallengeable leader faces only nominal competition from three ‘systemic’ opponents. The Kremlin has worked for years to make it this way.” “… ‘[M]anaged democracy’ … under … Putin used to offer plenty of opportunities … to … members of various ‘loyal opposition’ parties, [including the chance to] get elected […]
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“The government may feature new names and responsibilities, but there’s no sign Putin plans to alter the direction of policy.” “The Kremlin elite is feverishly jostling for position in [anticipation of] … Putin’s new term as the president surrounds himself with loyalists to pursue his war in Ukraine. Putin [reportedly] may carry out a significant government shake-up for the first […]
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“How Putin’s Pursuit of Power Has Hollowed Out the Country and Its People” “… Russia is neither stable nor normal. The [Russian] presidential election brings to maturity the late-stage Putinism that began with the [2020] constitutional referendum … when Putin’s potential mandate was extended until 2036. … Putin has made clear that Russia is fighting a permanent background war with […]
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“… Russia’s liberals … walk[] a tightrope. Their opposition to the war puts them at odds with much of their own society …. [M]any Ukrainians still feel … the Russian opposition has not gone far enough in condemning the killing of Ukrainians and occupation of their lands, instead opposing the war from a Russian viewpoint, focused predominantly on the losses […]
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“The Russian authorities vilified the opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny with a viciousness that suggested he was more influential than Moscow would admit. Little has changed since he died.” “When … Navalny was alive, the Kremlin sought to portray him as an inconsequential figure unworthy of attention, even as … Russian authorities vilified and attacked him with a viciousness that […]
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“… [O]n February 13, a military court sentenced Boris Kagarlitsky, prominent sociologist, Marxist scholar and labor activist, to five years in prison for criticizing the war in Ukraine … after a Moscow court initially ordered him to only pay a $6,500 fine for ‘justifying terrorism,’ charges which Kagarlitsky denied. Prosecutors appealed … calling [the initial judgment] ‘excessively lenient.’ Kagarlitsky, … […]
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“Kremlin campaign to focus on legitimacy as vote scrapped Ukrainian leader sensitive over issue as war footing shifts” “… With … Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation, millions … having fled … and [Ukraine’s] infrastructure battered … martial law has imposed restrictions on elections. Zelenskiy … would otherwise be campaigning for a vote held at the end of March if he […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]
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“The service for the Russian opposition leader will be open to the public, but it was unclear whether the authorities will try to stop people from attending.” “… The planned service, at a church on Moscow’s outskirts, sets up the possibility of a rare display of opposition sentiment in the Russian capital … [] Navalny’s spokeswoman, Kira Yarmysh, advised anyone […]
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“Adaptation of Mikhail Bulgakov’s anti-totalitarian Soviet novel wins rave reviews but pro-Russia activists want Michael Lockshin probed” “A new film adaptation of Mikhail Bulgakov’s anti-totalitarian Soviet novel Master and Margarita is winning rave reviews in Russia but irritating the Kremlin and its supporters. Colleagues of Michael Lockshin, the American-Russian director of the Russian-language film, have … accused Kremlin trolls of […]
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“When prison authorities announced the death of … Navalny, … Putin’s most potent political opponent, the Russian president appeared to be overflowing with cheer. Addressing … workers and students at a machinery plant in the … industrial city of Chelyabinsk …, a smiling Putin, unsurprisingly, made no mention of Navalny’s death … and instead professed himself … satisfied at the […]
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“Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow and develop response strategies with its allies to mitigate fallout.” “… Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 … Putin looked set to stay in power […]
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(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Feb. 15, 2024) There are ever increasing signs of problems in all sectors of Russian life, Anatoly Nesmiyan who blogs under the screen name El Murid says. Some of these are the product of media outlets seeking attention; but some reflect an underlying reality that Russians living under pressure now want to […]
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“Fear and greed drive Russia’s regime. The opposition leader struck at both.” “… Navalny’s death was blamed by Russian prison authorities on a blood clot … [H]is doctor said he suffered from no condition which made that likely. Whatever ends up on his death certificate, he was killed by … Putin. Russia’s president locked him up; in his name [] […]
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“Many in the West saw Alexei Navalny as the Russian opposition’s most promising challenger to Vladimir Putin. His death in prison on Friday brings a tragic end to a struggle the Kremlin had already largely contained.” “Alexei Navalny, Russia’s best-known and most indefatigable Kremlin opposition figure[,] … died in an Arctic penal colony Friday under as yet unknown circumstances …. […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Victor Andrusiv, Officer, Ukrainian Armed Forces; Former Director, Kyiv School of Public Administration – Feb. 14, 2024) Two years of war in Ukraine is already a long time, but recent events suggest that all forecasts regarding the end of hostilities no longer apply. For the first time, in speaking of a “long war” we’re referring […]
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“Long-winded, often factually erroneous arguments back his conviction that Russia has a historic right to Ukraine” “[In his] two-hour interview with Tucker Carlson … Putin recounted events of centuries past and trotted out 17th-century documents … expounding on deeply held views about the past, many widely disputed by historians, that have driven him to launch the continent’s bloodiest conflict since […]
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“…Hosted by Russia Matters — a project at the HKS Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs that publishes analysis on U.S.-Russia relations — [an] event [featuring Fiona Hill ] was moderated by former HKS Dean Graham T. Allison ’62 and former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Paula J. Dobriansky. Hill, the former senior director on Russia and […]
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Subject: De-centering Russia Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2024 From: Karen Hewitt <karen.hewitt@conted.ox.ac.uk> My comments on the lecture by Juliet Johnson on ‘De-centering Russia’ aseees.org/news-events/aseees-blog-feed/2023-presidents-address-de-centering-russia-challenges-and I am not a specialist in Slavic Studies. My academic work has been in English Literature, and my focus in Russia has been on introducing English Literature, especially contemporary literature, to some seventy university departments across […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 873 – Anton Shirikov, Postdoctoral Scholar in Russian Politics at the Harriman Institute, Columbia University – Jan. 29, 2024 – Click here for PDF) How do the lies of Russian propaganda work? In recent years, Kremlin-controlled media have promoted thousands of fabricated stories, including some completely absurd narratives — e.g., about “Nazis” in Kyiv or […]
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“Briefly, the five scenarios … include: Putin’s continued rule Putin’s ouster, followed by the installation of a far-right, nationalistic figure or cadre Putin’s ouster, followed by a technocratic, if still largely antidemocratic, regime Putin’s ouster, followed by the rise of a liberal, thoroughly pro-Western government Russian Federation state fracture” * * * “… Scenario #1 Putin’s Russia survives Scenario #2 […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Julia Khrebtan-Hörhager, Associate Professor, Department of Communication Studies, Colorado State University; Evgeniya Pyatovskaya, PhD candidate, Department of Communication Studies, University of South Florida – Feb. 1, 2024) Two years into the war with Ukraine, today’s Russia can best be understood through the lens of a slogan that once appeared in a Solovki special prison, part […]
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“Take a look at Vladimir Lenin’s legacy, 100 years after the first Soviet Union leader’s death shocked Russia.” “… A century later, the once-omnipresent image of Vladimir Lenin is largely an afterthought in modern Russia …. The Red Square mausoleum where his embalmed corpse lies in an open sarcophagus is no longer a near-mandatory pilgrimage but a site of macabre […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Jan. 22, 2024) Egor Mostovshchikov is a reporter, editor, publisher, director, screenwriter, and producer. He is the founder of the self-published media outlet Batenka, da vy transformer. Machine translation: wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/proklyataya-zemlya Peter Zeichan is exceptionally selfless: in his works, he meticulously destroys everything that a person who grew up in Russia knows about his country. A […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]
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“The trial and conviction of an activist in the Ural Mountains region sparked one of the biggest outbreaks of social unrest since the start of the war.” “The trial of a minority rights activist in Russia … sparked one of [Russia’s] biggest outbreaks of social unrest … since the start of the [Russo-Ukrainian] war … highlighting the strain … on […]
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