JRL NEWSWATCH: “Western sanctions have had ‘limited impact’ on Russian oil output, says IEA” – Financial Times

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Rerouting of Moscow’s crude to India, China and Turkey has helped offset curbs elsewhere.” “… Moscow’s exports of crude and oil products to Europe, the U.S., Japan and Korea had fallen by nearly 2.2mn barrels a day since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the [International Energy Agency] said. But the rerouting of flows to countries including India, China and Turkey […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “How is that Kremlin bank account looking?” – Fox

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Imported items including i-phones are still available.” “… ‘We’ve had some figures for the first half of 2022 released …’ Peter Mironenko of ‘The Bell’ tells Fox …. ‘… On the one hand … in the second quarter[] GDP fell around 4% and in the third quarter we will have about 7%. This is recession. But the scale is much […]

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Moscow Doesn’t Release All the Data It Collects But Doesn’t Keep Two Sets of Books or Falsify What It Does Issue, Former Kremlin Expert Says

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

(Paul Goble – Staunton, July 15, 2022) It is widely but incorrectly believed that the Kremlin keeps two sets of books, one that is more or less accurate on which it relies and a second that is fundamentally distorted in order to make things look better to the population than they in fact are, Dmitry Nekrasov says. According to the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Sanctions ‘Cripple’ Russian Economy, Study Says” – Moscow Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Moscow Times – Paul Handley – Aug. 2, 2022) The Russian economy has been deeply damaged by sanctions and the exit of international business since the country invaded Ukraine, according to a new report by Yale University business experts and economists. Even though Moscow has been able to pull in billions of dollars from continued energy sales at elevated prices, […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Grain Shipment Departs for First Time Since Russian Invasion” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Ship leaves port of Odessa following deal aimed at easing the global food crisis.” “[On Monday] Ukraine dispatched its first grain shipment since the start of Russia’s invasion … the first test for a deal reached last month to allow Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, to begin shipping some 18 million metric tons that Russia’s invasion … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s Farmers Begin a Harvest Like No Other” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Farmers brave mines and grapple with damaged equipment, but their resilience masks problems that will likely last long after the war ends.” “… Restoring destroyed [agricultural] infrastructure and getting workers to return to the fields will take time. While a recent agreement … to give grain shipments safe passage from Ukraine’s blockaded ports offers some hope … many farmers … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian central bank looks to spread risks across banking sector – Expert magazine” – Reuters

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“As Russian banks contend with foreign currency and payment headaches, the central bank [reportedly] is determined to redistribute funding and risks across the sector to safeguard those lenders [targeted by Western sanctions] …. The West imposed unprecedented measures against Russia’s banking sector after … [the] Feb. 24 [invasion of Ukraine], blocking major banks from … SWIFT … and limiting their […]

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Interview: Can Kyiv Launch An Offensive To Take Back Southern Ukraine?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Article text Copyright © 2022 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – Reid Standish – July 27, 2022 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/pentagon-chris-dougherty-interview-southern-ukraine-offensive/31962608.html) Ukrainian forces continue to use U.S.-supplied precision rocket systems to target Russian supply lines in occupied parts of southern […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Europe Dig In for Long Economic Standoff With Russia” – WSJ

“After Moscow cuts gas flows again on Nord Stream, Washington and Brussels bet on longer-term effects of sanctions.” “Western governments are bracing for a protracted economic confrontation with Russia over … Ukraine, as Moscow fights back against … sanctions by disrupting energy and food supplies. On Wednesday, Russia cut natural gas … on the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s State Energy Firm Nears Default” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“Naftogaz is seeking government approval to make payments by the end of Tuesday.” “Ukraine’s NJSC Naftogaz was hours away from default after lenders rejected its request to delay payments on more than $1.4 billion of foreign-currency bonds. … [T]he state energy company was seeking [Ukrainian government] approval … to repay … a $335 million note that matured last week. … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and Ukraine sign grain deal to avert global food crisis; Two sides agree ‘de facto ceasefire’ to allow cargo ships to collect millions of tonnes of grain from Ukrainian ports” – Financial Times

Wheat in Field, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Kyiv and Moscow … signed a deal aimed at averting a global food crisis by agreeing [to] a ‘de facto ceasefire’ on cargo ships that will collect millions of tonnes of stranded grain from Ukrainian ports. … [with] the agreement … signed … Friday … in Istanbul …. But diplomats warned that upholding the agreement would present huge challenges amid […]

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Russians in Small Towns Far from Moscow Live in Another World, Visitor from the Capital Says

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 14, 2022) Russians who live in major cities and those who live in villages receive a great deal of attention. Together, they form the overwhelming majority of the population. But those who live in smaller cities and towns seldom get much attention, Sergey Nechayev says. But if one visits one of […]

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AUDIO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Are sanctions actually hurting Russia’s economy? Here’s what you need to know” – NPR

“Just over four months ago, the U.S. and several allied nations levied unprecedented sanctions against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine. For weeks afterwards, the Russian ruble’s value tanked, foreign multinational companies pulled out of the country, and economic prospects began looking grim. But Russia responded aggressively. It shored up the ruble’s value and increased oil exports to […]

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China’s Long Game in Russia: Violating Sanctions? No. Ensuring Russia’s Survival? Yes.

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Lizzi C. Lee – June 30, 2022) Lizzi C. Lee is an economist-turned-journalist now working with Wall St TV, an independent, New York-based Chinese-language media outlet. She is the host of the ChinaEDGE Live show by SupChina. As some of the most extensive sanctions in modern history put enormous economic strain on Russia, China—Russia’s largest trading […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Official: Russia could see West’s sanctions as cause for war” – AP

Dmitri Medvedev file photo

“A senior Russian official warned Thursday that Moscow could see Western sanctions as a cause for war. Dmitry Medvedev, … deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council chaired by … Putin, denounced … Western [sanctions]  …. ‘Under certain circumstances, such hostile measures could be perceived as an act of international aggression, or even as a casus belli,’ Medvedev said … using […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “G-7 Summit Exposes West’s Challenges in Tackling Russia; Economic fallout is hampering further sanctions against Moscow as Ukraine demands more weapons to halt the Russian advance” – WSJ

File Photo of G7 Meeting, with Persons at Round Table and Long Table, with Flags and Windows Overlooking Green Space in Background

“[G7] rich democracies … agree[d] to discuss … new sanctions against Russia …. While weapons deliveries have made an immediate difference on the battlefield and Ukraine has been clamoring for more equipment to repel Moscow’s forces, sanctions have proven slow to take effect, some of them have backfired … and new ones have … been too complex to deploy quickly. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “From Russian Elites, No Sign of Broad Challenge to Putin” – New York Times

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“Many business owners and intellectuals fled Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, but others stayed behind, struggling to redefine their lives. Their diverging choices do not add up to a broad challenge to Vladimir Putin’s war.” “… Leading Russian business owners and intellectuals fled their country after the invasion [of Ukraine] on Feb. 24, settling in places like Dubai, Istanbul […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions Push Russia to First Foreign Default Since Bolshevik Revolution” – WSJ

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“A debt default has been long in coming since Western sanctions created payment obstacles Moscow couldn’t overcome.” “Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, pushed into delinquency not for lack of money but because of punishing Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia missed payments on two foreign-currency bonds as of late Sunday …. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin denounces the U.S. as a fading world power.” – New York Times

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

” … Putin … on Friday reprised his critique of the United States as a declining power that treats its allies as colonies, while declaring itself exceptional and ‘the messenger of the Lord on Earth.’ … Putin, whose remarks were delayed by over an hour after the Kremlin cited ‘large-scale’ distributed denial-of-service cyberattacks on the conference’s computer systems, spoke for […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia needs economic ‘perestroika’ to end reliance on energy exports – cenbank chief” – Reuters

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Russia must reduce its decades-old reliance on exports of raw materials and stimulate private enterprise to avoid slipping back towards a Soviet-style technological lag with the West, … [Russian] central bank [governor Nabiullina] said …. After the West imposed the most crippling sanctions in modern history to punish … Putin for the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economy is facing its […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “With Billions Going to Ukraine, Officials Warn of Potential for Fraud, Waste” – WSJ

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“While no instances of malfeasance have emerged, current and former officials say it is likely a matter of time.” “With the U.S. sending roughly $130 million a day in military aid to Ukraine plus economic and other assistance, current and former U.S. officials warn that more must be done to ensure arms and money aren’t diverted, stolen or misused. The […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s State Energy Company Keeps Russian Gas Flowing as War Rages” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“An uneasy alliance between Ukraine’s Naftogaz and its Russian counterpart sustains gas supply to Europe and fills government coffers on both sides of the fighting.” “Even as Russian rockets have peppered its facilities, Ukraine’s biggest state company has done hundreds of millions of dollars in energy business with Moscow. .. [T]he uneasy commercial truce … show[s] signs of collapse, threatening […]

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Western Sanctions Unlikely To Threaten Putin’s Government, Russian Economist Says

(Article text Copyright © 2022 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – Sergei Medvedev – June 8, 2022 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/western-sanctions-unlikely-to-threaten-putins-government-interview/31889297.html) Russia’s economy will be hit hard by Western sanctions, but President Vladimir Putin faces no immediate political risk and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Treasury bans Americans from buying Russian stocks and bonds” – CNN

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

“… [T]he Treasury Department [announced Monday] that U.S. investors are prohibited from buying ‘both new and existing debt and equity securities issued by an entity in the Russian Federation.’ … [Previously] Americans were able to buy Russian stocks and bonds that change hands in secondary markets. Americans will still be allowed to sell Russian stocks and bonds … to a […]

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After 100 Days, Russian Offensive Crawls Toward Eventual Defeat

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Jamestown Foundation/PONARS – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 83 – Pavel K. Baev – June 6, 2022) Russian military strategists argue that modern wars are decided in the high-intensity initial period; and the multi-pronged large-scale offensive into Ukraine was indeed launched, on February 24, 2022, with the aim of achieving a decisive success in the first couple […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How the EU’s ban on Russian oil will rock global markets” – Financial Times

Oil Wells File Photo

“Refiners will face fierce competition to secure supplies as Brussels imposes sanctions on seaborne exports.” “… [T]he EU’s 27 member states agreed to ban seaborne Russian oil imports. To placate landlocked countries such as Hungary, pipeline shipments will continue for now. … Germany’s and Poland’s willingness to taper … pipeline purchases by 2022’s close should, combined with the seaborne ban, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Seizing Russian Assets to Help Ukraine Sets Off White House Debate” – New York Times

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“The cost to rebuild Ukraine is expected to be significant. … Zelensky, estimated [in May] that it could be $600 billion after months of artillery, missile and tank attacks — meaning that even if all of Russia’s central bank assets abroad were seized, they would cover only half …. [F]inance ministers from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia urged the [EU] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Is Really Going on in the Kremlin?” – Kyiv Post/ Anders Åslund

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“… Based on current evidence, I would be surprised if [Putin] can rule Russia until the end of this year. … [T]he Kremlin must be … panic[king] … impos[ing] … Stalinist … censorship …. Putin’s war in Ukraine is an outstanding failure for which he is guilty … [h]is aim … too grand and arrogant, … his resources … too […]

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Why Russia’s Economy Hasn’t Collapsed Under The Weight Of Sanctions

Oil Well file photo

(Oilprice.com – Josh Owens – May 18, 2022) Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies implemented a set of unprecedented sanctions designed to destroy the Russian economy. The ruble crashed by nearly 50% against the dollar when the sanctions were first implemented but it has since bounced back to pre-war levels. A combination of energy exports, sanctions […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Who will pay to put Ukraine back together again?” – Financial Times

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

“Postwar reconstruction will hinge on reducing corruption and forging a genuinely close relationship with the EU.” “… [W]estern governments … are beginning to weigh up the costs and planning … needed for a postwar reconstruction effort [in Ukraine] that will rival anything … since [World War II]. The project … is going to be immensely complex and costly, running into […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Economy Facing Worst Contraction Since 1994; GDP may shrink 12% on sanctions, internal forecast shows” – Bloomberg

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Russia is facing the deepest economic contraction in nearly three decades as pressure from [U.S. and allied] sanctions … mounts, according to [anonymous sources describing an unpublicized Russian Finance Ministry forecast, later publicly denied by the Finance Ministry]. [GDP reportedly] is likely to shrink as much as 12% this year, deeper than the 8% decline expected by the Economy Ministry. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Western leaders must prepare public for a war economy; The cost of living crisis is likely to get worse before it gets better” – Financial Times

File Photo of G7 Meeting, with Persons at Round Table and Long Table, with Flags and Windows Overlooking Green Space in Background

“… ‘Ukraine fatigue’ is a real risk in western democracies[,] [whose] citizens are repulsed by … Putin’s war of unprovoked aggression and are full of sympathy for the Ukrainian people. … But as things drag on … [i]t is easy to see how the cost of living crisis … compounded by war and snarled-up supply chains, … probably already putting […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia plans to sue over frozen currency reserves, central bank says” – Financial Times

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Western sanctions have cut off Moscow from nearly half of its foreign exchange holdings.” “… Two days after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine … G7 countries and the European Commission announced … sanctions on Russia’s central bank to block it from accessing its foreign exchange holdings. The central bank is unable to access nearly half of its $609.4bn in […]

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Who’s to Blame? Sanctions, Economic Hardship, and Putin’s Fear of Color Revolutions

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(PONARS Eurasia Eurasia Policy Memo No. 767 – Stephen Crowley – April 18, 2022 – click here for PDF) Stephen Crowley is Professor of Politics at Oberlin College. He is the author of, Putin’s Labor Dilemma: Russian Politics between Stability and Stagnation (Cornell University Press, 2021), from which this memo is drawn. The sanctions now imposed on Russia—as severe as they are—are unlikely by […]

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RUSSIALINK: “200,000 Risk Losing Jobs in Moscow Over Sanctions – Mayor” – Moscow Times

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Moscow Times – April 18, 2022) Around 200,000 employees of foreign companies in Moscow could lose their jobs due to sanctions over Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, the city’s mayor said on Monday. “According to our estimates, about 200,000 people are at risk of losing their jobs,” Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a blog post. He said authorities had […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin, Ukraine and the revival of the west” – Financial Times

File Photo of G7 Meeting, with Persons at Round Table and Long Table, with Flags and Windows Overlooking Green Space in Background

“The strength and unity of the response to Russia’s invasion surprised the Kremlin but some have accused the west of hypocrisy.” “… The speed, strength and unity of the western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine surprised the Kremlin …. [and] may even have surprised western leaders. … ‘[T]he west,’ as a geopolitical concept, is no longer defined by geography. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “UN says Ukraine war threatens to devastate many poor nations” – AP

File Photo of UN Building with Flags

“… U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres released … [a U.N. task force] report saying that … [Russia’s war on Ukraine] is ‘supercharging’ a crisis in food, energy and finance in poorer countries … already struggling to deal with … COVID-19 …, climate change and a lack of access to adequate funding for economic recovery. ‘We are now facing a perfect storm […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Oil and gas revenues give Russia’s economy $3.4bn cushion” – Financial Times

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Yet Moscow downgraded to ‘selective default’ by S&P as it warns country is unlikely to honour foreign debt terms.” “Russia has boosted the fund that cushions its sanctions-hit economy with $3.4bn in additional oil and gas revenues thanks to rising energy prices since the start of its war with Ukraine, as it edges closer to its first debt default since […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What to Know About Russia’s Possible Debt Default” – WSJ

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“The country has until May 4 to remit funds to foreign bondholders’ accounts before defaulting.” “Russia missed a big set of dollar-bond payments due to foreign bondholders earlier this week …. The Russian Finance Ministry said U.S. sanctions were responsible for keeping the money trapped in Russia, setting the stage for the nation’s first default since 1998 and its first […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia cuts interest rates to 17 percent as ruble recovers.” – New York Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“The unscheduled rate change came after the ruble had regained most of its losses since Russia invaded Ukraine.” “… The central bank said inflation would continue to rise but that recent data had pointed to a slowdown in price increases …. The annual rate of inflation neared 17 percent at the start of April … [T]he central bank said … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “In targeted Russian economy, businesses operate without Western products; Sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign firms are hitting small businesses especially hard.” – Washington Post

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“… [A]s Russia faces … international sanctions … [and] the impact of Western businesses shunning the country[,] [t]housands of small and medium businesses — including restaurants, bars, beauty salons, consultancies, transportation, logistics companies and others — face …  [multiple] problems. As real wages plummet, consumption falls, inflation escalates and supply chain problems choke the economy, the crisis is devastating private […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “White House: Intel shows Putin misled by advisers on Ukraine” – AP

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

“U.S. intelligence … [reportedly] ha[s] determined that … Putin is being misinformed by advisers about his military’s poor performance in Ukraine …. The advisers are scared to tell him the truth …. The findings … indicate that Putin is aware of the situation on information coming to him and there now is persistent tension between him and senior Russian military […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Corporate Rejection of Russia Marks New Era of Political Risk” – International Institute for Strategic Studies/ Nigel Gould-Davies/ Moscow Times

File Photo of Meeting Room Table with Microphones and Chairs, adapted from image at cdc.gov

“More than 250 foreign companies have left the Russian market.” “… [N]ew Western sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine are unprecedented in three ways. …. [N]o great power has ever been subject to measures so severe and so rapidly applied. … [T]he sanctioning coalition is extremely broad: the entire transatlantic community is in lockstep, and several […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Ruble Surges 10% After Peace Talks in Turkey” – Moscow Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

Currency is almost trading at pre-war levels, but with heavy restrictions. (Moscow Times – March 29, 2022) The Russian ruble surged by more than 10% on Tuesday in Moscow trading, as investors saw signs of progress in peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators. The currency was trading below 83 against the U.S. dollar Tuesday afternoon — its strongest reading […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Mental Health Crisis Looms in Russia as Sanctions Fuel Drug Shortages, Job Losses” – Moscow Times

“It feels as if the world has two atmospheres, and they’re slowly crushing me.” (Moscow Times – James Beardsworth – March 24, 2022) Sasha, a 26-year-old animal behaviorist from Moscow, had seen a steady improvement in her mental health over the last three years. Thanks to her passion for her job and rigorous micro-management of her medication, she was able […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Central Banker Wanted Out Over Ukraine, Putin Said No; Russian president said to reject Nabiullina’s bid to resign” – Bloomberg

Elvira Nabiullina file photo

“Russia’s highly regarded central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina [reportedly] sought to resign after … Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine, only to be told by the president to stay …. Nominated for a new five-year term last week … [s]he is left to manage the fallout from a war that’s quickly undone much of what’s she’s accomplished in the nine […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Orders Europe to Pay Rubles for Russian Gas” – Moscow Times

Gas Flame file photo

Move is seen as a bid to get Europe to roll back heavy sanctions on Moscow. (Moscow Times – March 23, 2022) Russia will force Europe to start paying for gas supplies in rubles, President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday in televised remarks. “I have decided to implement a set of measures to transfer payments for our gas supplies to unfriendly […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Dallas Fed Warns Cutoff of Russian Energy Could Cause Global Recession” – WSJ

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Downturn appears ‘unavoidable’ if bulk of Russian oil and gas products are off the world markets for the rest of the year, according to a report by the regional Fed bank.” “A sustained halt in Russian energy exports could have a dire effect on the global economy, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said on Tuesday. ‘If […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian population divided over war, tens of thousands seek exile in neighboring countries, expert says” – Fox

“Russia may only have enough money to operate for next few months as sanctions take hold, top scholar [Marlene Laruelle] says” “Russians are split over the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine, and tens of thousands of Russians have already sought exile in neighboring countries, [according to] a leading scholar on Russian studies[,] … Marlene Laruelle, who heads the Institute for European, […]

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