(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Assessing the first year of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Graham Allison and Stephen Kotkin underline the brute fact: Ukraine is not winning. The war has become a colossal strategic failure for Putin, but Russia does control almost one-fifth of Ukraine, Harvard’s Allison writes in his analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, which was produced by the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. officials are telling Ukrainian leaders that they are facing a critical moment to change the trajectory of the war, raising the pressure on Kyiv to make significant gains on the battlefield while aid from the West is flowing, WP reported. “We can’t do anything and everything forever,” one senior administration official said, warning that it will […]
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The Russian economy’s macro indicators for 2022 surpassed the most optimistic expectations. Kirill Rogov explains how Russia has mitigated short-term economic shocks from its war in Ukraine and the crisis that lies ahead. (Kennan Institute – Kirill Rogov – Feb. 17, 2023) Kirill Rogov is a well-known political analyst in Russia and is frequently quoted in the West by the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Russian military has learned from its mistakes in Ukraine and now stands a chance to “snatch a diminished variant of victory from the jaws of defeat,” according to Dara Massicot of RAND. That victory would entail consolidating Russia’s control over its occupied holdings in Ukraine’s south and east, but Moscow “is unlikely to achieve its […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Warnings by Ukrainian officials of a coming Russian offensive have multiplied in the past few days. A Ukraine military intelligence official has told the Kyiv Post that the Russian attack is expected to come around Feb. 24, while an adviser to the Ukrainian military told FT that the offensive could come within 10 days. Better trained and equipped […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Feb. 3, 2023) Despite Russia’s sizeable budget deficit and other impacts of Western sanctions, Moscow will likely have enough money to keep its war against Ukraine going for a few years at least, according to several recent economic analyses. This does not mean the sanctions are useless, only that it would be “naïve to think […]
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(Oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Feb. 7, 2023) Russia’s budget was $24.7 billion (1.76 trillion rubles) into deficit in January. Total budget revenues slumped by 35% last month compared to the same month of 2022. The low price of Russia’s flagship grade is reducing Russian revenues from oil due to the steep discount at which Urals trades relative to the […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Maxim Trudolyubov – Feb. 3, 2023) Maxim Trudolyubov is a Senior Fellow at the Kennan Institute and the Editor-at-Large of Meduza. Russia’s economy is simple and hard to break. Because of the West’s tardy introduction of crucial sanctions and Moscow’s ability to mobilize resources, the costs of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the Russian economy […]
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“The uncoupling from Russia has not happened, partly because executives have not woken up to the return of geopolitics.” “… At the end of [2022], [reportedly] fewer than 9 per cent of the 1,404 EU and G7 companies with operations in Russia before the invasion of Ukraine had left the country …. Where there have been divestments, it has tended […]
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“Western sanctions aren’t keeping iPhones off Russian shelves or Hollywood films out of Moscow’s theaters. ‘Parallel imports’ are making Russia’s economy more resilient than expected.” “… Frustrating U.S. and European sanctions hawks, Russia appears to be weathering the West’s attempts to damage its economy in response to the invasion of Ukraine. … Via what are known as ‘parallel imports,’ Russian […]
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“A report documented a total of 2,405 subsidiaries owned by 1,404 EU and G-7 companies that were active in Russia at the time of the first military incursion into Ukraine. By November 2022, fewer than 9% had divested at least one subsidiary in Russia, and the research team noted that these divestment rates barely changed over the fourth quarter of […]
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“The resilience of Russia’s economy is helping fuel global growth, according to a new [I.M.F.] report … suggesting … [Western] efforts … to weaken Moscow because of its war in Ukraine appear to be faltering. … [T]he I.M.F. predicts … Russian output will expand 0.3 percent … this year and 2.1 percent next year, defying earlier forecasts …. A … […]
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(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan. 19, 2023) Russia’s current account surplus hit a quarterly record in the second quarter of 2022 as its imports fell and the value of its exports soared. Since that record quarter, Russia’s current account surplus has dropped every quarter as gas exports dried up and oil prices fell. Russia’s energy export revenues are set […]
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(Moscow Times – Jan. 17, 2023) The Kremlin has given major Russian companies permission to disregard the votes of shareholders from so-called “unfriendly” countries this year as a means of combatting the effectiveness of Western sanctions. The decree, signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, stipulates that the regulations apply to big firms in the energy, engineering, and trade […]
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“Since the U.S. levied sanctions against Russian oligarchs last spring in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s wealthiest have gone to great lengths around the globe to hide their wealth. So, too, have U.S. prosecutors in pursuit of would-be sanctions evaders. … The Justice Department’s KleptoCapture unit does not only seek Kremlin companions hiding assets. It also looks for […]
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“The rebalancing is stoking Moscow’s fear of becoming a junior partner to Beijing.” “… Putin‘s use of energy as a weapon of financial war is increasingly backfiring, threatening the core of Russia’s beleaguered economy and curtailing its geopolitical influence. Western sanctions, falling prices for Russian fossil fuels and strategic miscalculations are hurting the country’s oil-and-gas industry while the war in […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 19, 2022) The time has come to build “a new structure toward achieving peace through negotiation,” according to Kissinger. “The goal of a peace process [for Ukraine] would be twofold: to confirm the freedom of Ukraine and to define a new international structure” in which “Russia should find a place,” Kissinger writes in The […]
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“When Russia called up 300,000 reservists to fill out the army’s ranks for the ongoing Ukraine war … bureaucratic chaos and public angst … erupted as men were dragged from their civilian lives into unexpected military service …. But there is a parallel, economic mobilization … still going on, to rapidly reallocate resources and labor from the civilian sector to […]
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“Once thought of as reformers, the president’s economic confidants have ended up as enablers of an invasion they warned against.” “One month before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine … Putin’s top economic confidants … brief[ed] him on the likely fallout from western sanctions. … Gref … led a 39-page presentation warning … of disastrous consequences …. Nabiullina … […]
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“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]
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“Move is an attempt to squeeze the Kremlin’s oil revenues while keeping global supplies steady.” “The European Commission, the [EU]’s executive body, [reportedly] has asked the [EU]’s 27 member states to approve a … Russian oil [price cap] of $60 a barrel …. significantly below the international benchmark … Brent …. … [T]he [G7] … nations [would] need to sign […]
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(Moscow Times – Dec. 1, 2022) Russian manufacturing firms recorded their fastest rate of growth last month in almost six years due to new export orders and increased demand from domestic customers, according to a business survey published Thursday by S&P Global. Despite Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, “firms expanded their input buying at the […]
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(Moscow Times – Nov. 29, 2022) A longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Alexei Kudrin, stepped down Tuesday as the head of the country’s Audit Chamber amid reports he will oversee the reconstruction of tech giant Yandex following sanctions over Ukraine. Kudrin, a former finance minister who has a reputation of being an economic liberal in Moscow, has been […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Li-Chen Sim – Nov. 23, 2022) Li-Chen Sim is an assistant professor at Khalifa University in the United Arab Emirates and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. One of Vladimir Lenin’s most enduring phrases regarding political power has been “kto kogo?”1 — “who [will beat] whom?” This same question is […]
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“… Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration … accus[ing] … Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer. … The biggest point of tension [recently]… has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal [European] objections … […]
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(oilprice.com – Josh Owens – Nov. 21, 2022) Russia has already lost over 90% of its previous top European market—northern Europe—as shipments have slumped to below 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in recent weeks from more than 1.2 million bpd before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg’s estimates. The EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil […]
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“An argument on Russian state television is a ‘good sign’ that the country’s leadership is cracking, according to [] former U.S. [A]mbassador [McFaul]. Russia [reportedly] has threatened to nationalize assets of Western companies … pull[ing] resources from the country following its [Ukraine] invasion …. Hundreds of companies have already left Russia after expressing dissatisfaction with the war … [I]f the […]
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“Western sanctions after invasion of Ukraine contribute to sharpest downturn since pandemic.” “… The contraction follows sweeping restrictions from the U.S. and Europe on Russia’s energy and financial sectors, including a block on half of the central bank’s $640bn in foreign exchange reserves. About 1,000 western companies followed suit, curtailing … Russian operations, while hundreds of thousands of people left […]
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“Negotiators are confident agreement will be reached before programme expires on Saturday” “Russia and Ukraine are close to agreeing to extend a deal securing Kyiv’s grain exports via its Black Sea ports … a crucial step to alleviating a global food crisis triggered by the conflict. … In exchange … Russia will be able to use a pipeline that transports […]
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“Increasing use of atomic power would not necessarily free economies from Moscow’s influence.” “Faced with a global energy crisis and a race to slash emissions, advanced economies are starting to reconsider nuclear power after … declining investment. … But an atomic shift does not necessarily free a country from energy dependence on Russia, given the scale of the country’s presence […]
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“As its budget surplus melts away, so does the Kremlin’s ability to support the embattled economy and fund its offensive in Ukraine.” “Russia’s war in Ukraine and … sanctions … are depleting Moscow’s coffers, hurting … Putin‘s ability to support the economy and fund the military. … add[ing] pressure on the Kremlin, which had been using ample energy revenues … […]
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“… Russia has repeatedly targeted civilian infrastructure …. successfully attack[ing] 40 percent of Ukraine’s power grids with … missiles and Iranian drones. … bomb[ing] energy facilities, including hydroelectric dams, leaving more than one million Ukrainians without electricity. In Kyiv, [reportedly] 80 percent of residents are without water …. Economists project … Kyiv’s economy will shrink by at least 35 percent […]
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“Treasury, State prod JPMorgan, Citi to bank some Russian firms; Congress lambasted banks for continuing to do work in country.” “… [T]he country’s largest banks are caught in the push-pull between the Biden administration and Congress on sanctions. Behind the scenes, the Treasury and State Departments [reportedly] have urged banking giants including JPMorgan and Citigroup to keep doing business with […]
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“History shows that nothing causes fiscal and monetary instability quite like multiple big, long conflicts.” “… Large-scale war is simultaneously destructive of productive capacity, disruptive of trade, and destabilizing of fiscal and monetary policies. … Economists tend to treat wars as ‘exogenous shocks,’ generally omitting them from their models. From the historian’s standpoint, however, war is not exogenous, but the […]
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“… [Ukraine’s] economy has adapted to war — and seems to be growing again. … Odessa’s ports. … are now operating. … A grain deal … allows Ukraine to export agricultural products. … In August just as many people entered Ukraine from the [EU] as went the other way. The share of firms working at more than half capacity reached […]
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“In the system of Russian state administration, excessive reflection and compunction are, if anything, a distraction from focusing on the result, and therefore a disadvantage. Efficiency and loyalty are the two main criteria for success.” “Ever since their country invaded Ukraine, there has been a deafening silence from the group of Western-educated technocrats … in charge of running Russia’s economy. […]
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“Western sanctions … have wounded Russia’s long-term economic prospects. … cut[ting] its growth potential by as much as half …. Output of oil and gas … is about 3% lower than … before the invasion and may fall further once European embargoes come into effect …. In the first six months of the war somewhere in the region of 250,000 […]
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(Moscow Times – Oct. 11, 2022) Russia’s recession will be less severe than expected due to oil exports and relatively stable domestic demand, according to the latest International Monetary Fund forecasts released on Tuesday. While the IMF estimates Russia’s economy to have contracted by 21.8% during the second quarter at a quarterly annualized rate, for the year as a whole […]
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(Moscow Times – Oct. 12, 2022) Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday said his country was a reliable energy supplier and blamed the West for disruptions on the market at an energy forum in Moscow. After the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Europe were damaged by explosions, Putin said “the ball was in the EU’s court” to resume deliveries. […]
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“… There has been one … diplomatic effort … agreed on and implemented by all parties involved (including both Ukraine and Russia) … [that] could also serve as a framework for preventing the war from worsening. … the Black Sea Grain Initiative … mediated by Turkey and the United Nations. … … [It] paved the way for a humanitarian maritime […]
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“For the first time in the war … Putin must contend with the serious prospect of losing …. [T]he near rout of Russian soldiers in the Kharkiv region … and … rapid reconquest by Ukrainian forces … clearly showed … Ukraine was on top … destroy[ing] the illusion of Russian invincibility. … Suddenly, Western leaders and strategists have been able […]
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“… Economic boycotts … are one way for democratic governments to demonstrate … opposition to tyranny and military aggression without … having to go to war. They also represent an effort to turn people against their autocratic leaders. Some European politicians have claimed that stopping Russians from travel[]ing to Europe will encourage them to demand an end to the war. […]
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“The U.S. has been generous with military and financial aid, the Europeans less so. But both must step up the effort to keep Kyiv fighting.” “… Zelenskiy and his team are acutely aware that the next three months will bring … economic and diplomatic dangers …. Economically, [Ukraine’s] … fiscal and monetary situation is … [heading towards] high inflation if […]
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“… [With] Russian forces … in a desperate battle to hold … the meagre gains … made … since … Putin launched the invasion, the Kremlin’s propaganda machine is continuing its attempt to indoctrinate the Russian people … [into believing that] Moscow is vanquishing its foes. … [S]tate-controlled news channels … pump out a Panglossian view of the Ukrainian conflict […]
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Subject: Summer of Sanctions 2022 Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2022 From: Sarah Lindemann-Komarova <echosiberia@gmail.com> Summer of Sanctions 2022 By Sarah Lindemann-Komarova Sarah Lindemann-Komarova has lived in Siberia since 1992. Was a community development activist for 20 years. Currently, focuses on research and writing. [With pictures: echosiberia.medium.com/siberian-summer-of-sanctions-2022-878f00f1e28b] Thanks to Fred Weir for the inspiration The summer of sanctions in Siberia has […]
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“… [AP] found [that] more than 3,600 shipments … have arrived at U.S. ports from Russia since it began launching missiles and airstrikes into [Ukraine]. … a significant drop from the same period in 2021 … but … add[ing] up to more than $1 billion … a month. … Russia and the U.S. were never major trading partners … so […]
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“… This war is … Putin’s fatal mistake. Not because of economic sanctions and not because of the huge losses of troops and tanks but because [] Putin’s soldiers are from some of the poorest and most rural regions of Russia. Before this war, these men were encouraged to believe that Ukrainians lived in poverty and were culturally, economically and […]
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“… [T]he Central Bank of Russia (cbr) and Rosstat … have stopped publishing data on everything from trade to investment; many question the reliability of those numbers that are still emerging. Investment banks … have pared back … research …. Multilateral organisations have pulled economists out …. A recent paper … [from] Yale … says … a retreat of Western […]
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“Moscow is raking in more revenue than ever with the help of new buyers, new traders and the world’s seemingly insatiable demand for crude.” “Russia pumps almost as much oil into the global market as … before its invasion of Ukraine. With oil prices up, Moscow is also making more money. Demand from some of the world’s largest economies has […]
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“… [A] war of attrition is taking place along a thousand-kilometre front …. … [A]nother struggle is raging — an economic conflict of a ferocity and scope not seen since the 1940s, as Western countries try to cripple Russia’s $1.8trn economy with a novel arsenal of sanctions. … [I]t … reveals a great deal about liberal democracies’ capacity to project […]
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