Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 26-March 4, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal provides” at least two “potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine,” according to William Alberque of IISS. “Firstly, given Russia’s indifference to civilian casualties in Ukraine, it stands to reason that […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 1, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 9-15, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know Donald Trump’s advisers have discussed getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin around a negotiating table early in a potential second term, according to a Feb. 14 report by Bloomberg. One adviser to Trump said the promise of severing U.S. military aid could help get Zelenskyy—whom Trump has described as “the greatest […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia no longer perceived as top security threats, research finds” – CNBC

Satellite Image of Earth in Style of Mercator Map, adapted from image at nasa.gov

“China and Russia are considered less of a threat to Western populations now than a year ago, according to a new study which points to rising concern around non-traditional risks. Mass migration due to war or climate change and the rise of radical Islam now rank among the top perceived risks among G7 countries. The majority of respondents in Western […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 12-19, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]

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Russia in Review, Dec. 21, 2023-Jan. 5, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and its commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi have continued their indirect struggle over which of them should assume prime responsibility for the unpopular decision1 to conscript up to 500,000 Ukrainians. The tussle began on Dec. 19 when Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army chiefs had requested the conscription of up to 500,000 men, according […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 20-27, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 9-17, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) As violence escalated between Israel and Hamas after the latter’s indiscriminate attacks against the former, top Russian officials seized the opportunity to blame the crisis on what they described as America’s repeated failure to use its “monopoly” on mediation between the two sides to reach a fair peace deal. Vladimir Putin has also called for a cessation […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 29-Oct. 6, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Putin has shot down proposals to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use in Russia’s doctrinal documents, but called for Russia to de-ratify the CTBT. When asked by Sergei Karaganov at the Valdai Club meeting on Oct. 5 whether Russia should “modify the doctrine on using nuclear weapons, lowering the nuclear threshold,” Putin said: “[T]here […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 15-22, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Sept. 22, 2023) 7 Things to Know Ukraine intends to continue its counteroffensive through the autumn and into the winter, according to remarks made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley this week. “The fight right now still has plenty of fighting weather left,” according to Gen. Milley. At the […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 8-15, 2023

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials cited by NYT. “With revenue from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and ministry of defense have been able to smuggle in the microelectronics and other Western materials […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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Russia in Review, July 28-Aug. 4, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know In the past month of fighting Russian armed forces made a net gain of 14 square miles, according to the estimate by the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force. Their research shows that the period saw Russian forces gain 43 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine’s net gain was 29 square miles, according to the Aug. 1, 2023 issue […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The west must match Russia and China in the dark arts of the grey zone” – Financial Times

Satellite

“Traditional military power will not be enough to win the Ukraine war or the larger struggle over the global order.” “… Are cyber attacks, disinformation and influence campaigns still relevant? The answer is a resounding ‘Yes.’ Ukraine is but a single front in a [global conflict] … over what is and is not permissible in international relations. … [T]he war […]

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Russia in Review, July 14-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know It is “way too early” to judge the Ukrainian offensive a failure, said U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, adding that the war “is going to be long, it’s going be hard, it’s going be bloody.” Milley said the biggest challenge for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is getting through […]

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Russia in Review, June 30-July 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 12-20, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]

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Russia in Review, June 9-16, 2023 – 7 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]

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Russia in Review, May 26-June 2, 2023 – 4 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kremlin Officials Continue to Use iPhones Despite U.S. Espionage Fears” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Hand Holding IPhone, adapted from image at defense.gov and af.mil, displaying webpages relating to U.S. Air Force

(Moscow Times – June 1, 2023) As many as 30% of employees in the Russian presidential administration continue to use iPhones for personal communication, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday. Peskov’s comments came after Russia’s Federal Security Services (FSB) announced that it had detected “anomalies” in some iPhones in Russia caused by “malicious software” that it linked to “surveillance operations […]

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Kissinger on Russia: Insights and Recommendations

Henry Kissinger File Photo, with Military Officer and Others in Background; adapted from image at defense.gov,; original image was DoD photo by Air Force Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]

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Russia in Review, May 19-26, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]

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Russia in Review, May 12-19, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Chinese President Xi Jinping told leaders of the five Central Asian republics that Beijing is ready to help them strengthen “their law enforcement, security and defense” capacities. Playing host to these leaders in Xian during a two-day summit, Xi also said China would provide $3.7 billion in financing support and “free assistance” to the five republics […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden’s CIA Assist in the 2020 Presidential Election; The agency, not only retirees, turns out to have worked on the Hunter excuse letter.” – WSJ

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“… It seems … [Joe] Biden … [on election day] owed thanks not only to a cabal of former intelligence officials, but [also] to the [CIA][,] … [according to the] [U.S.] House committees detailing the origins of the October 2020 disinformation letter about Hunter Biden’s laptop. … Joe Biden’s campaign helped engineer a statement from 51 former U.S. spies that […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Steps Up Effort to Fight Against Russian Disinformation” – WSJ

File Image of Laptop Computer, Tables and Mobile Device, adapted from image at energy.gov

“Senior U.S. envoys travels to Balkans, an information battleground.” “The State Department is increasing efforts to push back against … Kremlin[] disinformation … even as Russian propagandists have sought to exploit the extensive leak of purported U.S. classified information. … [A] senior U.S. envoy outlined proposals to help [Balkan] governments … ferret out Russian and Chinese disinformation sites on their […]

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Russia in Review, March 31-April 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Three days of Xi’s talks with Macron and von der Leyen reaffirmed their rhetorical commitment to peace in Ukraine and an end to nuclear saber-rattling, but produced no concrete measures for attaining either. A readout of the trilateral talks in Beijing by the Chinese MFA said Xi told his two guests that a ceasefire in Ukraine […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “New Details on Intelligence Leak Show It Circulated for Weeks Before Raising Alarm” – WSJ

File Image of Laptop Computer, Tables and Mobile Device, adapted from image at energy.gov

“The secret documents were first posted in January to a small group on a messaging channel that trafficked in memes, jokes and racist talk.” “One of the most significant leaks of highly classified U.S. documents in recent history began among a small group of posters on … [the] [Discord] messaging channel that trafficked in memes, jokes and racist talk. Sometime […]

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Russia Analytical Report, March 6-13, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Vladimir Putin’s conviction that the U.S. somehow encouraged North Caucasus-based terrorist groups prior to one such group’s deadly hostage-taking raid in Beslan in 2004 played a major role in his turn away from the West, according to David Ignatius’ analysis of a new book, “Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama.” “We […]

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Excerpt from the “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community”

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

[click here for PDF of entire Annual Threat Assessment, declassified version] [excerpt on Russia follows]   Russia REGIONAL AND GLOBAL OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine is a tectonic event that is reshaping Russia’s relationships with the West and China, and more broadly in ways that are unfolding and remain highly uncertain. Escalation of the conflict […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 17-24, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. military hackers conducting offensive operations in support of Ukraine, says head of Cyber Command” – Sky News

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

“In an exclusive interview with Sky News, General Paul Nakasone confirmed for the first time that the U.S. had ‘conducted a series of operations’ in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” “… [NSA Director, Commander of the U.S. Cyber Command, Chief of the Central Security Service,  and four-star] General Paul Nakasone … explained how … ‘hunt forward’ operations were allowing […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Hacker Attacks on Russia Gain Attention But Cause Little Damage” – Moscow Times

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

(Moscow Times – Alexandra Vladimirova – April 29, 2022) Two days after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a group of hackers managed to get access to several Russian state-owned television channels and broadcast anti-war videos. But the attack ended after a few minutes and regular programming resumed. This type of fleeting hacking operation has been repeated many times […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden has been presented with options for massive cyberattacks against Russia” – NBC

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

“The options presented include disrupting the internet across Russia, shutting off power and stopping trains in their tracks.” “… Biden [reportedly] has been presented … options … to carry out massive cyberattacks … to disrupt Russia’s ability to sustain … military operations in Ukraine …. U.S. intelligence and military cyber warriors are proposing the use of American cyberweapons on a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Catches Kremlin Insider Who May Have Secrets of 2016 Hack” – Bloomberg

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

“IT executive Vladislav Klyushin’s journey into U.S. custody is a blow to the Kremlin, say people familiar with a Russian intelligence assessment of what he may have to offer” Bloomberg reports on the extradition from Switzerland to the United States of Russian tech tycoon Vladislav Klyushin, the highest-level Kremlin insider falling into the hands of U.S. law enforcement in recent […]

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Richard Sakwa: NEW BOOK: Just Released: “Deception: Russiagate and the New Cold War”

Book Cover for "Deception" by Richard Sakwa

Subject: New Book Date: Mon, 3 Jan 2022 From: Richard Sakwa <R.Sakwa@kent.ac.uk> Just released: Deception: Russiagate and the New Cold War (Lanham, MD, Lexington Books, 2022). The ‘Russiagate’ affair is one of the most far-reaching political events of recent years. But what exactly was the nature and extent of Russian interference in the campaign that led to the presidency of […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia, U.S. conducting cybersecurity dialogue – Peskov” – Interfax

Dmitry Peskov file photo adapted from image at kremlin.ru/wikimedia commons

MOSCOW. Nov 9 (Interfax) – Moscow and Washington are conducting cybersecurity dialogue, but the details of this dialogue cannot be relayed to the public, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “A mechanism of cybersecurity consultations has been launched between the relevant agencies of the two sides in furtherance of the agreements reached at the Geneva summit. This dialogue is continuing,” Peskov […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “CIA director brings up Russian hackers at talks in Moscow – sources” – Reuters

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

Burns’ trip coincided with developments in both countries that highlighted their tensions over cybersecurity, where no progress has been reported […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Moscow To Check Electronic Votes for State Duma in Recount” – Moscow Times

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

Independent data scientists and analysts said that half of all the votes attributed to United Russia in the official results were probably fake — a level of falsification previously unseen in Russian parliamentary elections [. ..]

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Russia’s E-Voting Getting Off The Ground, Literally

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

Critics have warned that the system’s lack of transparency and voter-verification safeguards could open the way for vote manipulation […]

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Background Press Call By Senior Administration Officials On President Biden’s Call With President Putin of Russia

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

(White House – July 9, 2021) 3:25 P.M. EDT MODERATOR: Good afternoon, everyone. Today’s call is going to be on background, attributed to a “senior administration official,” and the contents are going to be embargoed until the conclusion of the call. With that, we’ll turn it over to our speaker, [senior administration official]. [Senior administration official], over to you. SENIOR […]

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Putin Says Russia Is Ready To Hand Over Cybercriminals, But Only If U.S. Does The Same

Gas Pump File Photo with Nozzle in Car

… a cybercriminal group that U.S. authorities said operates from Russia penetrated a pipeline operator on the U.S. East Coast, locking its systems and demanding a ransom. … caus[ing] a shutdown … [leading] to a spike in gas prices, panic buying, and localized fuel shortages […]

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Punitive Response to SolarWinds Would Be Misplaced, But Cyber Deterrence Still Matters

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Erica D. Borghard – March 31, 2021) Erica D. Borghard is a senior fellow with the New American Engagement Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. She also serves as a senior director on the U.S. Cyberspace Solarium Commission. This op-ed is part of a new debate from Russia Matters and […]

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U.S. Response to SolarWinds Cyber Penetrations: A Good Defense Is the Best Offense

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

According to U.S. officials, Russia is the likely perpetrator of the SolarWinds cyber compromise of federal agencies, private sector firms, NGOs and academic institutions […]

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