“The chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee said Friday [that regarding] a partnership between the Russian and Chinese leaders … ‘We have never seen a threat this large scale to Europe and the Pacific … since World War II.’ An alliance between … Xi Jinping and … Putin ‘provides a very big challenge I think for the free […]
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“Chinese exports to its neighbor have risen sharply, as Beijing sends everything from microchips to trench-digging excavators.” “China is playing an increasingly important role … propping up Russia’s economy and helping boost its war effort … [T]rade data show[s] Beijing providing a range of goods, including some with potential military applications such as microchips and trench-digging excavators. China has become […]
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“Dozens of nations have lined up to become members of BRICS.” “… The BRICS bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will use an annual leaders’ summit in Johannesburg … to begin the process of enlisting more members to bolster its global heft, a push driven mainly by Chinese President Xi Jinping but also backed by Russia […]
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“Is Russia’s future aligned with China? Many in Moscow think so, seeing the two countries’ visions aligning not just geopolitically, but also ideologically – though it may cost Russia considerably.” “… Russia’s turn toward Asia, and China in particular, has been greatly accelerated by souring relations with the West …. Western sanctions [have] made it a matter of urgent necessity […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s current counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, thus, remaining unable to disrupt the land bridge from Russia to Crimea, WP reported, citing “people familiar with the classified forecast.” The assessment is based on Russia’s proficiency in defending occupied territory, which […]
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“Mediation offers from China aren’t made in good faith.” “Skyrocketing costs for fuel and food in the global south due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are spurring mediation offers … from China, the African Union, and even Saudi Arabia. … Secretary of State Antony Blinken has welcomed these initiatives … to woo support from countries that have not condemned Russia […]
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6 Things to Know In the past month of fighting Russian armed forces made a net gain of 14 square miles, according to the estimate by the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force. Their research shows that the period saw Russian forces gain 43 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine’s net gain was 29 square miles, according to the Aug. 1, 2023 issue […]
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“Traditional military power will not be enough to win the Ukraine war or the larger struggle over the global order.” “… Are cyber attacks, disinformation and influence campaigns still relevant? The answer is a resounding ‘Yes.’ Ukraine is but a single front in a [global conflict] … over what is and is not permissible in international relations. … [T]he war […]
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“U.S. is competing with a partnership between the two countries but has fewer icebreakers and ports, and less experience” “… [I]n the Bering Sea last fall, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball spotted seven Chinese and Russian vessels steaming … in a double line near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. … [T]he main Chinese ship [was] the Nanchang, one of a new […]
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“… Putin is Xi Jinping’s No. 1 good fellow as the two countries make common cause against the United States[] [b]ut … would be wise to keep in mind China’s track record. … Mikhail Kapitsa, a top Soviet foreign ministry official, [said] in 1982, ‘The Chinese never befriend anyone for a long time.’ The Chinese Communist Party’s approach to geopolitics […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 5 Things to Know It is “way too early” to judge the Ukrainian offensive a failure, said U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, adding that the war “is going to be long, it’s going be hard, it’s going be bloody.” Milley said the biggest challenge for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is getting through […]
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Twenty-two countries … have formally applied to join bloc Putin skipping summit out of consideration for BRICS: Sooklal “More than 40 nations have indicated an interest in joining the BRICS bloc of major developing economies as it seeks to expand to grow its political clout, [according to Anil Sooklal,] South Africa’s ambassador to the group …. Brazil, Russia, India and […]
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“The prospect of a failed counter-offensive and significant territorial concessions would only embolden Russia and China.” “Since … last year, three options … for how this war would end[] [have been] victory for one side or the other, a frozen conflict or a negotiated settlement. … [T]he last may be more likely than previously thought. … The long-planned counter-offensive … […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Having seen one-fifth of the weaponry and armor they’ve sent to the battlefield damaged or destroyed in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive, Ukrainian commanders took a pause to rethink their strategy, NYT reported on July 15, citing Western officials. So far, the Ukrainians “taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]
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“China may have the opportunity to turn Russia into its vassal, but it has no compelling reason to do so.” “…. Moscow … is betting on China in the global confrontation with the West …. The trade turnover between the two countries, which reached a record $190 billion last year, increased by another 39 percent in the first quarter of […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]
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(Moscow Times – Jake Cordell) Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against Moscow will have stoked alarm in China and could throw sand in the wheels of the “no-limits” strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday. After a 24-hour armed insurrection in which Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries seized control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]
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“… [A war-game scenario envisions] early morning … massive [Chinese] bombardment … of Taiwan’s navy and air force as the People’s Liberation army and navy mount a massive amphibious assault …. Having taken seriously … Biden’s pledge to defend the island, Beijing also [strikes] pre-emptively at U.S. and allied air bases and ships in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. … even[s] […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]
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( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]
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“Xi Jinping meets Russian premier among meetings signaling pushback against Western pressure” “China and Russia moved to solidify their partnership with high-level meetings … in a departure from recent efforts by Beijing to play down its alignment with Moscow as it seeks to play … peacemaker in Ukraine. … Xi Jinping met Wednesday in Beijing with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail […]
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“Whether Americans like it or not, this country will have little choice but to begin planning for an emerging world order.” “… Amid the seemingly never-ending catastrophe of the war in Ukraine, it’s become increasingly evident that China and India are likely to shape its final resolution. Russia can’t keep fighting without … [their] support … thanks to their refusal […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Chinese President Xi Jinping told leaders of the five Central Asian republics that Beijing is ready to help them strengthen “their law enforcement, security and defense” capacities. Playing host to these leaders in Xian during a two-day summit, Xi also said China would provide $3.7 billion in financing support and “free assistance” to the five republics […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s counteroffensive needs to show demonstrable success for U.S. Congress to approve additional aid as the money American lawmakers set aside to fund military supplies to Kyiv is set to run out in July, according to U.S. officials interviewed by FT and Politico. Meanwhile, there is a debate underway in Washington over whether substantial gains in […]
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“High-level meetings in Washington and New York … could have wide-reaching implications for the war between Ukraine and Russia, geopolitical hotspots like Taiwan and the South Pacific, and the global economy and international finance. With … Lavrov at the U.N. to preside over the Security Council and meet with United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, and Guterres then traveling to Washington […]
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“Chinese leader Xi Jinping said … Wednesday … Beijing will send an envoy to Ukraine to discuss a possible ‘political settlement’ to Russia’s war with the country. … Xi told … Zelenskyy in a phone call that a Chinese envoy would visit Ukraine and ‘other countries’ to discuss a possible political settlement, according to a government statement …. It made […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – April 14, 2023) The latest batch of leaked top-secret U.S. intelligence assessments paint a significantly grimmer picture of Ukraine’s fighting chances than one would typically find on the editorial pages of America’s leading newspapers. The leaked documents warn that Ukraine’s anticipated spring counteroffensive will likely result in “modest territorial gains” that would fall “well short” of Kyiv’s goals, […]
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“… China has also made recent headway with its Middle East diplomacy. … [especially with] Iran and Saudi Arabia … broker[ing] a deal to restore diplomatic relations between [them]. … [Global] developments [relating to Chinese influence] are causing some concern in Washington. … A significant divergence in attitudes to the war in Ukraine is driving [global] shifts [in attitudes towards […]
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“Senior U.S. envoys travels to Balkans, an information battleground.” “The State Department is increasing efforts to push back against … Kremlin[] disinformation … even as Russian propagandists have sought to exploit the extensive leak of purported U.S. classified information. … [A] senior U.S. envoy outlined proposals to help [Balkan] governments … ferret out Russian and Chinese disinformation sites on their […]
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“[CIA] director … William Burns[] said Tuesday that … Putin’s military campaign in Ukraine was ‘a huge strategic failure,’ and that Moscow could soon become heavily reliant on Beijing to keep the Russian economy afloat. … As Western economies decoupled from Russia, the Kremlin turned to Beijing to backstop its losses. In 2022, two-way trade … grew by nearly 35 […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Three days of Xi’s talks with Macron and von der Leyen reaffirmed their rhetorical commitment to peace in Ukraine and an end to nuclear saber-rattling, but produced no concrete measures for attaining either. A readout of the trilateral talks in Beijing by the Chinese MFA said Xi told his two guests that a ceasefire in Ukraine […]
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“The Kremlin on Thursday said it saw no “prospect” for China to mediate the Ukraine conflict and that it had “no other way” than to press on with its offensive. The comments came as French President Emmanuel Macron was in Beijing to try to dissuade China from supporting Moscow’s campaign. … China has outlined a proposal for peace in Ukraine, […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia’s new foreign policy concept declares “an era of revolutionary change” in the world order, but leaves the door open to normalizing relations with the West. To facilitate the formation of a “more just, multipolar world,” Russia will prioritize the “elimination of vestiges of dominance by the U.S.,” according to the new document, which replaces Russia’s […]
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“Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s summit in Moscow was nominally meant to be about bringing peace to Ukraine. But it appears to have strengthened the countries’ partnership against the West.” “When … Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow [last week] for a three-day summit with … Putin, one of the most talked about [subjects] … was a Chinese-mediated settlement for the […]
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“As Beijing has recognised, there are opportunities for everyone in a catastrophic defeat for Vladimir Putin.” “… [L]aunching his unprovoked invasion … Putin laid down a deliberate challenge to the international system … which upholds the sovereign integrity of the nation state. In addition, he and his nationalist acolytes have committed war crimes on an industrial scale, a fact now […]
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“The most interesting outcome of the [Sino-Russian] summit [was] … Putin [saying], ‘We … favor … using the Chinese yuan for settlements between Russia and the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.’ … [T]he world’s second-largest economy and … largest energy exporter are actively trying to dent the dollar’s dominance … of the international financial system … [that] gives […]
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“The U.S.-China-Russia strategic triangle has returned as a fulcrum of global geopolitics. As Chinese president Xi Jinping … visit[s] … Moscow to meet with … Putin, … Biden has been busy coordinating Atlantic and Pacific military alliances to box in both powers. The Biden administration often frames this division between the powers as … an abstract contest between democracy and […]
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“… The boom in demand for Chinese lessons in Russia illustrates the country’s pivot toward Asia as tensions build between Moscow and the West. … Pummeled by multiple rounds of Western sanctions, Russia’s economic and technological development is becoming more dependent on China. … The popularity of Chinese classes might be starting to catch up with demand for English lessons […]
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“War in Ukraine looms over Chinese leader’s visit, while the West worries about a more-powerful Russia-China axis.” “[] Xi came into the trip — the 40th meeting between the two leaders — seeking to cast himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war, even as [] Putin demonstrates his determination to carry on the fighting. … Xi’s high-profile visit […]
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“Instead of working toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict, Washington has escalated tensions with Beijing.” “… In March 2022, its present foreign minister, then–Ambassador to the United States Qin Jang, published an article … stating …: ‘On Ukraine, China’s position is objective and impartial: The purposes and principles of the UN Charter must be fully observed; the sovereignty and […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Vladimir Putin’s conviction that the U.S. somehow encouraged North Caucasus-based terrorist groups prior to one such group’s deadly hostage-taking raid in Beslan in 2004 played a major role in his turn away from the West, according to David Ignatius’ analysis of a new book, “Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama.” “We […]
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“Chinese leader Xi Jinping is considering sending lethal aid to Moscow’s forces in Ukraine. That would be a profound mistake.” “… Until now, China has wisely kept its distance, paying lip service to its partnership with Russia while mostly adhering to Western sanctions. … Despite requests for weaponry … China has so far sent only nonlethal aid, such as helmets […]
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“China’s intent cited in annual assessment of worldwide threats ‘Growing pessimism’ in Beijing is cited by intelligence chief” “Russia is likely to downgrade its ambitions in Ukraine for the time being to hanging onto territory seized after the start of its invasion, even as it enjoys deepening economic and defense support from China, U.S. intelligence chiefs told a Senate committee. […]
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[click here for PDF of entire Annual Threat Assessment, declassified version] [excerpt on Russia follows] Russia REGIONAL AND GLOBAL OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine is a tectonic event that is reshaping Russia’s relationships with the West and China, and more broadly in ways that are unfolding and remain highly uncertain. Escalation of the conflict […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. public’s support for aiding Ukraine is decreasing as Americans’ war weariness increases with time, according to veteran journalist Peter Baker’s news analysis in NYT. Overall, support has fallen from 60% last May to 48% now, according to AP/NORC surveys. The decline is more pronounced among Republican respondents, which shows in statements by GOP presidential contenders. […]
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“… China has … releas[ed] a twelve-point document proposing a … political settlement [for the conflict in Ukraine, with] … familiar Chinese talking points …. It repeats Beijing’s support for the UN Charter and the territorial integrity of states, … condemns unilateral sanctions, and criticizes the expansion of U.S.-led military alliances. Those who expected a roadmap to peace … will […]
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