JRL NEWSWATCH: “With hopes of victory fading, Ukraine’s war against Russia could get even harder in 2024” – CNBC

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive would change the dial in the war …. It didn’t … 2024 could be even harder. Ukraine’s alliances with the U.S. and Europe could be destabilized further in 2024, putting the future of military aid packages in doubt. The amount of support and military hardware Ukraine receives […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Showcase Economic Forum Is Now a Charade” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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“The excessive optimism of Putin and his ministers smacks of an attempt to convince not even mythical investors so much as themselves that business as usual is possible — and even compatible with their threats to unleash nuclear war.” “… Investors and foreign media used to see … Putin’s keynote address as an economic road map and indication of [Putin’s] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How much is Russia spending on its invasion of Ukraine? By historical standards, it’s a puny amount. That tells you three big things” – The Economist

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“… Russia’s budget is murky — especially its military one. … However … consult[ing] … various experts[] … our own analysis … come[s] up with … 3% of GDP. … Three reasons explain why Russia is spending so little. The first is political. Many within the Russian government would like to continue to portray the war … as a ‘special […]

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Russia’s Money for Ukraine War Won’t Run Out Anytime Soon, Economists Say

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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Feb. 3, 2023) Despite Russia’s sizeable budget deficit and other impacts of Western sanctions, Moscow will likely have enough money to keep its war against Ukraine going for a few years at least, according to several recent economic analyses. This does not mean the sanctions are useless, only that it would be “naïve to think […]

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Russia’s Budget Deficit Jumps Amid Plunging Oil Revenues

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(Oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Feb. 7, 2023) Russia’s budget was $24.7 billion (1.76 trillion rubles) into deficit in January. Total budget revenues slumped by 35% last month compared to the same month of 2022. The low price of Russia’s flagship grade is reducing Russian revenues from oil due to the steep discount at which Urals trades relative to the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “World Bank Urges Russia to Adopt Guaranteed Minimum Income to Slash Poverty” – Moscow Times

World Bank Building

Russia spends $30 billion on social welfare, but only 10% goes to the extremely poor. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – May 26, 2021) The World Bank has recommended Russia overhaul its welfare state if it wants to slash poverty as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. The U.S.-headquartered organization said Russia should adopt a “guaranteed minimum income” — a […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin denies militarization of Russian economy, says ‘everyone trying to nibble will be kicked in teeth'” – Interfax

Kremlin and River

MOSCOW. May 20 (Interfax) – The Russian economy is not being militarized, however, anyone trying to encroach on its territory will receive a harsh response, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. “The same thing has happened now and always: as soon as Russia gets stronger, a pretext is found to limit its development. As one of our emperors once said, ‘Everyone […]

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Russians Want Moscow to Spend Less on Military and More on Domestic Needs, Higher School of Economics Poll Shows

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[According to polls,] more Russians now than two years ago want their government to spend more on healthcare and education and only half as many want it to devote more money to defense and security […]

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Is Crimea Now Costing Russia More Than It Is Worth?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

… Not only did that aggressive breach of international law trigger Western sanctions … the authorities in Moscow also never gave the public an honest estimate of just how much money would need to be spent, nor for how long […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia to cut defence spending in bid to prop up ailing economy; Continued support for less well-off set to wipe out fiscal surplus of recent years” – Financial Times/ Henry Foy

File Photo of Close-Up of Line of Russian Soldiers in Dress Uniforms for Parade, adapted from image at georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov with credit to Eric Draper

“Russia will spend more on supporting its economy than funding its armed forces next year for the first time since 2014 … ahead of critical parliamentary elections. … [with economic] doldrums … amid low oil prices and western sanctions … [and with the economy] contract[ing] sharply … due to … coronavirus …. The Kremlin announced …  [higher] spending … to […]

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Because of Pandemic, Moscow This Year Spent More on Economy than on Defense

Covid-19 Coronavirus file photo, adapted from image at cdc.gov

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, September 19, 2020) The pandemic has introduced major changes in Russian government policy but perhaps not one greater than this: for the first time in a very long time, the Russian government has spent more on promoting the economy than on maintaining and developing its military (sobkorr.org/news/5F6610F248362.html). The number of new cases […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin delays $360bn spending plan as Covid-19 batters economy” – Financial Times/ Henry Foy

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Volte-face comes shortly after vote that allows Russian president to extend his rule for another 16 years.” “… Putin has delayed his flagship … national investment plan by six years as the coronavirus pandemic pitches Russia into recession and leaves a hole in the federal budget. … Putin unveiled the so-called National Projects two years ago as a much-needed Rbs25.7tn […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian government presents National Recovery Plan to President Putin” – bne Intellinews

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“… Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has presented the National Recovery Plan to … Putin … [with] a launch at the beginning of July. … [T]he government has rolled out two economic support packages, worth RUB3.1 trillion ($42.1bn), or 2.8% of GDP. The RUB7.3 trillion final recovery plan was cut from the previously reported RUB8 trillion plan … includ[ing] the two […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Situation thus far not developing in best way, Russia to see budget deficit in 2020 – Siluanov” – Interfax

Anton Siluanov file photo

MOSCOW. March 18 (Interfax) – The Russian government is diverting from its macroeconomic forecast for 2020: the budget will see a deficit and National Wealth Fund (NWF) resources will need to be used, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said while speaking at the annual meeting of the Federal Treasury board. Opening the board meeting, Siluanov remarked on the fact that it […]

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Russia’s PM Orders New Spending Plan to Boost Living Standards; Moscow prepares to ramp up state spending in a push to deliver growth and support hard-pressed Russians.

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – January 22, 2020) Russia’s new government looks set to revise the country’s ultra-conservative economic policy in favor of more spending, a boost to welfare payments and increased investment. Mikhail Mishustin, who President Vladimir Putin appointed last week to replace Dimitry Medvedev, instructed his new cabinet Wednesday to revise the state budget – the latest version […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Own Government Warns His Campaign Promises Can’t Be Met” – Bloomberg/ Evgenia Pismennaya, Anna Andrianova, Ilya Arkhipov

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“… Putin’s own government doesn’t believe his ambitious campaign pledges to improve living standards are attainable. Officials have analyzed the $400 billion [National Projects] spending program … and found that the majority of targets will be impossible to achieve before … Putin’s term [ends] in 2024 …. Putin and … Medvedev have been briefed about the findings …. confirm[ing] conclusions […]

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Russia’s National Projects: Economic Reboot or Mucky Bog?

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Ben Aris – May 30, 2019) Ben Aris is editor in chief of bne Intellinews. He has been covering Russia as a journalist since 1993. While Moscow has been aggressively advancing its interests on the international stage, Russia’s stagnating economy means the country risks gradually falling behind the rest of the world and possibly facing […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s GDP growth slows in 1Q19, challenging the policy framework” – bne Intellinews/ Dmitri Dolgin (Russia ING)

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Russian GDP growth slowed from 2.7% year on year in 4Q18 to just 0.5% y/y in 1Q19, well below expectations. Unlike most commentators, we attribute this slowdown to a pause in the state CAPEX rather than to the VAT hike. We also believe a policy response is more likely to come from the Finance Ministry rather than the Central Bank […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Effective Military Spending Is Around $200 Billion” – Checkpoint Asia/Richard Connolly

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“Russia maintains armed forces of around a million … compared with … fewer than 200,000 in the UK. … [and] procures and maintains far larger volumes of equipment across the whole spectrum … including [ICBM’s], nuclear-powered submarines … state-of-the-art helicopters and fighter aircraft. * * * … PPP-based measures … yield a figure of closer to $200 billion …”

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Life Expectancy in Russia Inches Upward to 73 – Health Ministry Official

Medical Symbol with Pole, Serpents, Wings, adapted from image at lanl.gov

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 21, 2019) Average life expectancy in Russia has reached 73 years, a top health official said on Thursday. Russia plans to spend 1.7 trillion rubles ($26.68 billion) on dramatically improving health care to accomplish President Vladimir Putin’s goal of raising life expectancy to 78 years by the time his term ends in 2024. Average […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Social benefits proposed by president to cost 80 bln rubles in 2019 – Golikova” – Interfax

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MOSCOW. Feb 21 (Interfax) – The social benefits proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his Address to the Federal Assembly for realization this year will cost 80 billion rubles, Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said on the show “Time Will Tell” on Channel 1 on Wednesday. “According to our preliminary estimates, the things that fall to 2019 – in […]

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Russian Educational System Threatened by Privatization, Underfunding

File Photo of U.S. Diplomat Teaching Class to Russian Students

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, November 15, 2018) The explosive growth of private for-profit higher educational institutions and mounting anger in the regions about the costs of public schools at the primary and secondary level are threatening the quality of the Russian educational system, a system on which the future of that country heavily depends. If the […]

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Russian Retirement-Age Hike Advances As Putin’s Adjustment Approved

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – September 26, 2018 – article also appeared at rferl.org/a/duma-approves-putin-s-revised-proposal-to-raise-retirement-age-for-women/29510648.html) An unpopular plan to raise the retirement age has advanced in the Russian legislature after lawmakers overwhelmingly approved President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to limit the increase for women to five years — to age 60 — instead of eight. Deputies […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Pension bill passes 2nd reading in State Duma, 3rd reading due on Thursday” – Interfax

Russian State Duma Building file photo

MOSCOW. Sept 26 (Interfax) – Russia’s State Duma has passed the second and main reading of the bill on pension reform, which envisages a gradual increase of the retirement age. The deputies unanimously (385 votes) supported all amendments to the bill initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. A total of 326 deputies voted for the bill at the second reading, […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Zyuganov calls for gathering political elites in Kremlin, scrapping pension reform” – Interfax

File Photo of Kremlin Aerial View, adapted from .gov source

MOSCOW. Sept 25 (Interfax) – Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov has declared the necessity of a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and the political elites to discuss the domestic situation, including the possibility of scrapping the pension reform. “Once again, I insist that he [the president] gather influential people in the Kremlin so that we could discuss the unfolding […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Oil Production Jumps to a New Post-Soviet Record” – Bloomberg/Elena Mazneva

Oil Well file photo

“Russia’s crude production has jumped to a new post-Soviet record, boosting … budget revenue as it prepares for talks with OPEC+ on further cooperation, according to a [Russian] government official. … currently fluctuating between 1.54 million and 1.55 million tons a day — driven mainly … Rosneft … 11.29 million to 11.36 million barrels a day, beating the previous record […]

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RUSSIALINK: “A Just Russia offers Communists to pool efforts for pension referendum – Mironov” – Interfax

Russian State Duma Building file photo

ROSTOV-ON-DON. Sept 3 (Interfax) – The parliament factions of the Russian Communist Party and A Just Russia should pool efforts to make the pension referendum happen, A Just Russia’s faction leader Sergei Mironov said at a press conference in Rostov-on-Don. “I have offered our Communist Party colleagues in the State Duma to combine efforts [towards holding the referendum]. Clearly, everything […]

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Ladies’ Man: Putin Cites ‘Caring Attitude’ In Pension-Reform Concession

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(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Carl Schreck – Aug. 29, 2018 – also appeared at https://www.rferl.org/a/ladies-man-putin-cites-caring-attitude-in-pension-reform-concession/29460024.html) Russian President Vladimir Putin reserved the weightiest of his cautious concessions on a controversial pension-reform plan for Russian women, who outnumber their male counterparts by 10 million and live — and vote — considerably longer. Citing what he called […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Dials Back Pension Plan After Backlash” – Wall Street Journal/Ann M. Simmons

File Photo of Kremlin Aerial View, adapted from .gov source

“… Putin softened a plan to raise pension ages to bolster state finances, a rare backtrack following a public outcry that cut his approval ratings to the lowest level in more than four years. … Putin proposed that the pension age for women be increased from 55 to 60 instead of the 63 years proposed by parliament. He didn’t propose […]

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RUSSIALINK TRANSCRIPT: “The [Russian] President’s address to Russian citizens [re pension reform]” – KremlinRu

File Photo of Kremlin Aerial View, adapted from .gov source

(Kremlin.ru – August 29, 2018 – en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405) President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Citizens of Russia, friends, On June 16, 2018, the Government submitted to the State Duma a draft law on reforming the pension system, and on June 19, the draft passed its first reading in Parliament. The law’s main purpose is to ensure that the pension system remains sustainable […]

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Not So United: Russia’s Ruling Party Rattled By Pension-Reform Crisis

File Photo of Kremlin Aerial View, adapted from .gov source

(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Yelizaveta Mayetnaya, Robert Coalson – August 5, 2018 [Text with links and graphics: rferl.org/a/not-so-united-russia-ruling-party-rattled-by-pension-reform-crisis/29413547.html] Speaking to a riled-up crowd at a July 28 protest against the Russian government’s deeply unpopular proposal to raise retirement ages in Vologda, angry pensioner Nikolai Zharavin didn’t mince words as to who was to […]

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RUSSIALINK TRANSCRIPT: “[Putin] Conversation with 2018 FIFA World Cup volunteers. [Excerpt re: Pension Reform]; During his visit to the Kaliningrad Stadium, Vladimir Putin met with 2018 FIFA World Cup volunteers” – KremlinRu

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(Kremlin.ru – July 20, 2018) * * * Question: Mr President, can I ask you a question not related to sports? Yesterday the State Duma adopted amendments to pension legislation in the first reading. Of course, you monitor the Government’s proposals. It is very important for us to know your opinion on this issue. Remark: Galina, I do not think […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Civil Solidarity’s request to authorize rally against pension age increase in Sokolniki on Wednesday approved” – Interfax

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

MOSCOW. July 18 (Interfax) – The administration of the park Sokolniki has approved a request made by the movement Civil Solidarity to authorize a public event on the territory intended for a ‘hyde park’ on July 18. The topic of the event is “Rally against Pension Age Increase,” the culture establishment said on its official portal. The rally will have […]

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Governors Back Moscow’s Pension Plan but Seek Exemptions for Their Own People

Russia Regions Map

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, July 16, 2018) Caught between the demands of the Kremlin which decides whether they will be in office and the opposing views of their populations that could make their time there easy or difficult, Russia’s governors are simultaneously telling Moscow they support the pension plan but asking it to exempt their own […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Pensions in Russia to keep growing after 2024 – Labor Ministry” – Interfax

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

MOSCOW. July 9 (Interfax) – Pensions will continue to grow after 2024, but the Labor Ministry is not ready to say at what rate. “We are now calculating everything through 2024, although the calculations undoubtedly cover future periods. We’ll see, it will depend on how we can achieve the current tasks. Without a doubt, we are working on the assumption […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Authorities Prepare to Soften Pension Reform-Sources” – Reuters

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“[Sources claim that] Russian authorities are considering ways to soften a plan to raise the pension age … following protests and a slide in … Putin’s popularity ratings. The government announced its plan last month to raise the retirement age for men to 65 from 60 and for women to 63 from 55 to ease pressure on state coffers from […]

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World Cup May Have Helped Russia But It hasn’t Boosted Putin

File Photo of Putin Sitting at Desk, Looking Down, Writing, During Call-In Show, adapted from screenshot of video at kremlin.ru

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 24, 2018) Many commentators in both Russia and the West have suggested that the World Cup has helped Russia to overcome much of the opprobrium it has suffered as a result of its invasion of Ukraine, its meddling in elections in Western countries and in general its disruptive behavior. And it […]

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As World Watches Russia, Opposition Seeks To Score With Pension Protests

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Carl Schreck – June 20, 2018) – also appeared at rferl.org/a/russia-world-cup-russia-opposition-pension-protests/29306847.html) As World Cup fever mounts in Russia, opponents of a government plan to raise the retirement age find themselves jostling for political position, with a handful of protests announced against the proposed measure set to coincide with soccer’s centerpiece […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Live Longer, Work Longer, Says Russian Government; But the plan to raise the pension age won’t go down well with most Russians” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – June 18, 2018) A long-shelved plan to raise the pension age risks coming up against a wall of protest, as Russians of all ages cling to their Soviet-era social privileges. Compared to many Western countries, Russians retire early: men at 60 and women at 55. Those who operate heavy machinery or work in difficult conditions […]

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Russia’s Oil Sector Is Facing A Massive Tax Overhaul

Oil Well file photo

(Oilprice.com – Irina Slav – June 11, 2018) A major tax overhaul in Russia’s oil industry is about to start pressuring the earnings of major oil companies. Refiners will be hit hardest as the overhaul will increase the tax burden on downstream operations while the upstream sector will see taxes shift from production-based to profit-based. Last week, the Finance and […]

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Three Prospective Reforms Likely to Hurt Putin with His Political Base in the Population

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 3, 2018) Vladimir Putin has the coercive resources and elite support to remain in office regardless of whether the population supports or deserts him, but at least some of his power depends on his ability to mobilize his base which consists of government employees, industrial workers, and especially pensioners. At present, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Military: More Bark Than Bite; Russia remains a long way from possessing the ability to overwhelm larger, better equipped peer competitors” – The National Interest/Richard Connolly, Mathieu Boulegue

File Photo of Close-Up of Line of Russian Soldiers in Dress Uniforms for Parade, adapted from image at georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov with credit to Eric Draper

“… on the one hand, senior Russian officials, including the president, are publicly declaring the existence of a range of advanced new weapons systems, while on the other hand, spending plans suggest that the defense burden should decline into the early 2020s. … While official rhetoric in relation to military modernization – and in particular to the development of new […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s finance minister promises no new taxes, but hints at ‘adjustments'” – Meduza

Anton Siluanov file photo

“… Siluanov says Russia has no plans to change its tax system in the next six years, but there will be ‘adjustments.’ … the government is once again considering measures to simplify the tax code, in order to encourage more businesspeople to stop working in the economy’s ‘gray sector’ …. Russian media has repeatedly said the government is discussing major […]

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Putin vs. Pensions: Will His Reelection Finally Free Him To Tackle Looming Crisis?

File Photo of Elders Walking in Russia

(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Mike Eckel – May 16, 2018 – article also appeared at rferl.org/a/putin-vs-pensions-will-his-reelection-finally-free-him-to-tackle-looming-crisis-/29229857.html) It’s been the third rail of Russian politics for years, if not decades, but now an increasingly fragile economy appears to have forced the Kremlin to finally reckon with the country’s pension crisis. Russia’s pension system — […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russian Kudrin sets goals following his appointment as head of the Audit Chamber” – Intellinews/Vadim Dumes

Alexei Kudrin file photo

“… Kudrin set out … four main goals following his appointment as … new head of Russia’s Audit Chamber, a state agency …. Russian watchers have been disappointed by Kudrin’s appointment to the … relatively toothless body …. there is a chance that the intention is to beef up the Chamber’s role …. [but the appointment o]n balance … is […]

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NEWSWATCH: “The Kremlin has big plans for the next five years, and it might need to raise Russia’s retirement age to pay for everything” – Meduza

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“… a leaked copy of … Medvedev’s next five-year budget plan … [anticipates] 25 trillion rubles ($403.8 billion) on 13 ‘national projects.’ … repeat[ing] many of the priorities of Medvedev’s … presidency and … Putin[] … executive orders. [kommersant.ru/doc/3628758] … new roads … demography … infrastructure … cancer and ‘the digital economy’ … broadband Internet connections [for] public sector facilities. […]

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NEWSWATCH: “To pay for a ‘Russia first’ agenda, Putin takes ax to military spending” – Christian Science Monitor/Fred Weir

File Photo of Close-Up of Line of Russian Soldiers in Dress Uniforms for Parade, adapted from image at georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov with credit to Eric Draper

“… [At his inauguration] Putin surprised many … declaring … a relentless focus on domestic development … partially paid for by sharp cuts in defense spending. … [a] projected surge in spending on roads, education, and health care …. A key source of that funding will be [taken from] the military budget … growing by around 10 percent annually for […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russian government ‘on the brink’ of increasing retirement ages” – bne Intellinews

Two Babushkas file photo

“Russian government ‘is on the brink’ of increasing retirement age in Russia … Medvedev [said] … The current retirement age of 55/60 years was set in USSR … in [the] 1930’s when average life expectancy was 40 … Medvedev argued … * * * The pension fund deficit currently amount[s] to RUB3.35 trillion ($53bn). In 2015 age pensioners amounted to […]

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Russia, Despite Military Ventures, Cut Defense Spending By Most In Decades

Russian Soldiers Marching

(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – May 2, 2018 – also appeared at rferl.org/a/russia-despite-ventures-syria-ukraine-cut-military-spending-last-year-most-since-1998-economic-collapse-western-sanctions-recession/29203634.html) Western sanctions and a long recession forced Russia’s military to slash spending by 20 percent last year, its first drop in nearly two decades, a closely followed think-tank report said. Despite Russia’s flexing of its military muscle around the world, with its […]

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