Russian inflation slows to 1.2% in March, annual rises to 16.9% – Rosstat

MOSCOW. April 6 (Interfax) – Inflation in Russia slowed to 1.2% in March from 2.2% in February, 3.9% in January and 2.6% in December, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said.

This was slightly above the 1.1% that analysts predicted in a consensus forecast for Interfax. It was also higher than the 1% that Rosstat itself estimated, although that was based on weekly inflation figures for a narrower range of goods.

Inflation in March 2014 was 1%, so inflation in annual terms rose slightly to 16.9% in March this year, from 16.7% in February, 15% in January and 11.4% in December. Inflation in annual terms is almost 3 percentage points higher than the Central Bank’s key lending rate, which was lowered to 14% from 15% in the middle of March.

The core or underlying inflationary index, which excludes short-term irregular price changes caused by various factors of an administrative, once-off and seasonal nature, was 101.5% in March 2015 September, up from 100.8% in March 2014; and 117.5% in annual terms (106.0%).

Food prices rose 1.6% in March this year compared with growth of 1.8% in March 2015. Food prices minus fruit and vegetables went up 1.6% also (1.3%).

Nonfood prices rose 1.4% (0.7%) and service charges rose 0.3% (0.5%).

Fruit and vegetables averaged up just 1.2% in March compared with growth of 7.2% in February and 22.1% in January. There were price rises of 21.5% for garlic last month, 6.6% for bananas and 5.2-5.7% for dried fruits, frozen vegetables and nuts. Oranges went up 3.7% and cabbage, beetroot, carrots and grapes – 1.8%-2.8%, but tomatoes and fresh cucumbers fell 7.2% and 2.3%, respectively, onion – 0.5% and grapes and apples – 0.4%.

Frozen fish (except salmon) rose 4.2% in price, filleted fish – 3.7%, natural canned fish and canned fish in oil – 3.6% and salted herring- 3.4%.

Peas and beans rose 3.4% in price, rice – 3.2%, semolina – 2.9% and millet – 2.2%.

Poultry fell 0.5% and pork went down 0.3% in price in March.

Black pepper corns rose 6.5% in price, olive oil – 5.9% and margarine, condensed milk sweetened with sugar, canned meat, canned vegetables and canned fruit and berries, jam, coffee, tea, instant soups, breakfast cereals, grape wine, ketchup, mayonnaise and selected confectionery – 3.0-4.4%.

The consumer basket of staple foods went up 1.2% in March and to 13.7% in January-March to 3,774.3 rubles per person per month.

The basket was most expensive in Chukotka at 8,084.5 rubles and least expensive in the Kursk region at 3,018.4 rubles.

It cost 4,550.0 rubles in the City of Moscow, up 1.6% in March and 15.4% since the start of the year; and 4.453.2 rubles in St. Petersburg, up 1.3% and 14.4%, respectively.

Housing and utility charges went up 0.4% in March, compared with growth of 0.4% in February and 0.6% in January. They rose 1.1% in January-March 2015, compared with growth of 0.5% in the same period of last year; and 10.1% in March compared with the same month last year.

Retail gasoline prices in Russia were unchanged in March after falling 0.6% in February. Prices fell 0.3% in January and 0.9% in December but grew 0.7% in November. They were up 6.1% from March 2014. Gasoline prices fell 0.9% during Q1 2015.

The Central Bank is expecting 12%-14% inflation for the year and Economic Development Ministry – 12.2%. The analysts said in their consensus forecast that 12.5% was possible.