Russian annualized GDP decline halts in August, first time since December 2014

MOSCOW. Oct 3 (Interfax) – Russia’s GDP in August 2016 was unchanged from August 2015, compared with a decline of 0.8% in July, the first time the decline in annualized GDP has halted since December 2014, the Economic Development Ministry said in its monthly economic monitoring reported published on Monday.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP in August rose 0.3% following the stabilization in May-June.

In January-July 2016 as a whole, GDP declined 0.7% compared with the same period last year, the ministry reported.

Industrial output rose 0.7% in August, according to Rosstat data. The seasonally adjusted index of industrial output calculated by the Economic Development Ministry rose 0.3% in August after declining 0.5% in July.

Output in the agricultural sector grew at an annual pace of 0.5% in August.

Real incomes dropped 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in August compared with July and the decline in real disposable incomes deepened to 1.1% in August compared with 0.6% in July.

“Despite the worsening negative trends in household incomes, retail trade was a positive factor: seasonally adjusted retail trade declined just 0.1% in August after remaining unchanged in July,” the report says.

The Econ Ministry’s baseline forecast (assuming oil priced at $40 a barrel) is for GDP to decline 0.6% in 2016 as a whole, and to grow 0.6% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019.