RUSSIALINK TRANSCRIPT: “Russia Calling! Investment Forum (excerpt/with Q&A)” – KremlinRu
(Kremlin.ru – November 28, 2018)
[Full text en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/59216]
Vladimir Putin took part in the annual Russia Calling! Investment Forum hosted by VTB Capital. The plenary session is entitled “Building Partnerships. Bridging Differences.”
Russia Calling! Forum is a leading platform for drawing capital to the Russian economy, improving the investment climate and promoting the country’s international economic and business ties.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin:
Good afternoon, friends, ladies and gentlemen,
I am very pleased to welcome the participants and guests of the traditional, already tenth, Russia Calling! Forum to Moscow.
This year again, the forum brought together senior executives of leading Russian and foreign companies, investment funds, and eminent experts whose work, at least part of it, is associated with Russia and who are interested in our country.
Before opening the discussion, I would like to provide a brief overview of the situation in the Russian economy. Overall, it is steady. Russia’s GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.5 percent during the first three quarters of this year.
The industrial output showed higher growth rates, exceeding forecasts and adding 3 percent, with the manufacturing industries adding 3.2 percent.
Key indicators, such as inflation and unemployment, are at low levels with unemployment at 4.7 percent and inflation around 3.5 percent. Based on the Central Bank’s forecasts (Ms Nabiullina may have already mentioned this), we planned it at around 4 percent, but the current number is 3.5 percent, as far as I know.
Despite the external attempts to exert pressure and well-known internal difficulties, the Russian business is making long-term plans and increasing investment in development projects.
The volume of investment in fixed assets grew by 4.1 percent over the first nine months of 2018. Such business optimism shown by investors and their positive outlook are an important measure of business confidence. We highly appreciate that and will support such positivity.
Of course, it is obvious that the current economic growth rates are not enough to bring about a major improvement in living standards for our citizens. We are open about it, we are aware of it, and are creating an entire development programme in order to change the state of things.
As I have already said, we are seeking to achieve growth rates above the global average and to firmly establish Russia among the world’s top five economies. It is by addressing structural challenges that we can lay a solid foundation for getting this breakthrough effort off the ground.
First, we need to improve productivity, primarily by introducing modern and better performing technologies in the non-oil and gas sectors.
We will improve the vocational training system in order to be able to constantly develop and expand competences and ensure effective personnel development.
Second, we will direct substantial resources towards infrastructure development and provide all the possible assistance to private companies to this effect. Roads and railways, seaports and river ports, air travel, power supply, communications – in all these areas we intend to step up our efforts manifold in order to enhance connectivity within the country with convenient and safe communications.
Let me emphasise that this is also essential for enabling Russia to be proactive in its international economic ties and expanding our export opportunities.
Third, we will do everything it takes over the next several years to promote priority growth of the digital economy. We will form a regulatory and technological framework for introducing digital solutions in public administration (we have already started moving in this direction, and this effort has gathered significant momentum), as well as in utilities and urban infrastructure, the industrial sector, transport, education and healthcare.
We will create fundamentally new industries and business platforms based on digital solutions, and will stimulate the development of Russian companies – global leaders in the digital era.
Of course, to ensure investment growth, to attract capital to the Russian economy, we will continue to improve the business climate, reduce the administrative burden on businesses and offer investors new, more convenient mechanisms to expand their business.
The implementation of plans for the development of Russia’s economic potential will certainly require large government investment; you have probably heard the figures. As a reminder, in 2019-2021, the plan is to allocate 2.3 trillion rubles from the federal budget for these purposes.
At the same time, I would like to note that, despite the obvious growth of expenses, we have not opted for weakening the budget policy. We will further maintain a responsible approach to financial management and ensure the necessary balance of revenues and expenditures of the state treasury.
Such long-term predictability of macroeconomic, financial, and monetary policy is extremely important for both domestic and foreign investors.
This, ladies and gentlemen, is what I wanted to say at the beginning. We still have a small discussion scheduled – I am at your disposal.
Thank you for your attention.
President and Chairman of the VTB Bank Management Board Andrei Kostin:
First of all, thank you very much for coming. Indeed, this is our 10th anniversary forum. If I may, I will take just two minutes of the audience’s and your time to briefly remind everyone how it all started 10 years ago.
The creation of this forum is directly related to the creation of VTB Capital investment bank, which took place 10 years ago in a very unlikely period amid the global crisis, when many investment banks were scaling down their operations.
Of course, we consulted with senior bank managers and leading experts. I talked with the head of Deutsche Bank Josef Ackermann, a renowned investment banker, and he told me: “Andrei, when you see Mr Putin, tell him there is no great country without a powerful national investment bank.”
When I came to see Mr Putin after that (he was prime minister at the time) to give a report, he, first, approved this initiative and, second, said: “How can I help?”
Like in a fairy tale, I thought about asking him to grant three wishes, but then I remembered that the more wishes, the worse the fairy tale turns out, so I made just one wish: “Mr Prime Minister, may I ask you to come to our conference (back then, every self-respecting investment bank hosted conferences), and not go to others?” He said nothing about other conferences, but positively stated he would come to us.
Of course, even in my wildest dreams I never thought that 10 years would pass and every year Mr Putin, regardless of the weather, political climate and his busy schedule, would come to our conference. This made the forum what it is now. I believe it is our country’s leading financial forum, and, of course, you come here primarily to be able to listen to and talk with Mr Putin.
Mr President, I was searching my memory to come up with some numbers. We had 300 investors at the first forum where you spoke, now we have 2,200, with over 500 coming from more than 63 countries. I hope your efforts were not in vain, because the great nation of Russia, I believe, now has a dependable national investment bank. Thank you so much for supporting us all these years.
Colleagues, we will now have a Q&A section. This is a democracy. You can ask questions from the floor. Mr President often picks the speaker himself. But while you are preparing, let’s have the first question.
This is not something we have prearranged, but I think, The Wall Street Journal has an interesting question: One of your government’s key economic priorities is to increase investment to 25 percent of GDP. You have set similar targets in past election campaigns, but with little success. What makes things different this time around? What makes you think this is a more realistic target today?”
I can tell you that we touched on this topic this morning, and Alexei Kudrin said that as a rule when specific instructions by the President or the Government are not fulfilled, punishment follows, but when we set strategic goals and they are not met nobody seems to be responsible. Who will answer for this now? And an additional question from me. Who will be held responsible for failing to meet this target?
First,I don’t think people come here to see me or hear me speak, I am not the biggest attraction in Moscow. They have things to do and to discuss among themselves, and it is very important to talk with their colleagues from the Government, from the Central Bank and to get a feel for what makes Russia tick.
To start with, 2008 and 2018 are very different. There was a crisis then and times are also hard today, but the causes of the crises are different.
Today, I think, there is a sense that in spite of any crisis phenomena or artificially created difficulties, the Russian economy is adapting to the challenges, is feeling confident, creating conditions for domestic development, and this, in my opinion, is the factor I mentioned when I talked about this.
GDP growth is 1.5 percent, not that much, but investment in fixed assets outstrips GDP growth, 4.1 percent. This shows that investors have confidence in tomorrow and understand the policy pursued by the Russian financial authorities. It is stable, reliable and predictable, and the economy adapts to external shock, as indicated by the factors I have mentioned.
As for punishment, with us it is usually a case of (you know the expression) “the rewards go to the uninvolved and the punishment to the innocents.” Let’s not go down that road and try to decide who should be punished. We need to think about what needs to be done to fulfil the ambitious plans we have set for ourselves. We do have such a plan.
Andrei Kostin: Colleagues, feel free. You have the opportunity to have a direct dialogue. Please, go ahead.
Akar Tolga: Dear President, I would like to ask you. There has been much discussion about moving away from the dollar to achieve greater diversification, whether to make payments, to engage in foreign trade and for foreign reserve purposes. Interestingly, one of the impediments to this are governments themselves. They keep signing agreements in dollars whether they are for loans or for trade and they continue to keep the currency for reserve management. Russia is no exception. What can governments do to support this diversification? Thank you very much.
We are not seeking to walk away from the dollar – rather, the dollar is walking away from us. (Laughter, applause.) Those who take these decisions are not just shooting themselves in the foot but a bit higher, because this instability in making payments in dollars is causing quite a few economies to look for alternative reserve currencies and create settlement systems independent of the dollar.
It is not just us, believe me – we see what is happening across the world. Look at how the foreign exchange reserves of various countries, including the United States’ closest allies, are shrinking. Dollar assets are dwindling, look at the reports – and this concerns the largest holders of dollar assets. This is the result of this sanction-based policy that targets, among other things, dollar assets.
I think that sooner or later they will wake up to the reality, but as long as the world has to address these sorts of challenges in the economy, the search for alternative options for making settlements and accumulating reserves will continue. We are also doing this like many other countries.
There are long-established practices in some commodity markets, say, in the oil market, but still when people look for a solution to a problem they tend to find it. For example, 70 percent of our exports to EAEU countries and 30 percent of our imports from them are settled in rubles.
We are actively working together with our major trade and economic partners to create systems that would not be linked to SWIFT. We are working to ensure the flow of goods.
I have just talked to the Turkish President, your leader – literally, half an hour ago. We discussed several practical issues but I would like to remind you of our military technology deal, the one to supply S-400 missile systems. We understand that if we make payments in dollars, the payments will not go through.
So, we thought of another way of doing this and the deal came off. We will act in the same way for all types of goods and I have cited just one example that is on everybody’s lips.
And so we are not pursuing the objective of moving away from payments in dollars, rather we are forced to do this. I can assure you that we will continue to do this, but not because governments do not want to [make payments in dollars] – we simply do not want to make dramatic moves that could harm us.
Of course, to make the global economy more sustainable and predictable and settlements more efficient and reliable, alternative options will be found.
Andrei Kostin: Next, please.
Raymond Zucaro: My name is Raymond Zucaro. I am the Chief Investment Officer at RVX Asset Management based in the United States. We focus on emerging markets globally. But I really consider myself a student of history. And when I look at what you’ve done for Russia, Mr Putin, I think in history books you will be regarded much like Peter the Great. Restoring Russia to a world power, stopping the European encroachment on the near abroad. And at the same time, being an American citizen, I often look and wonder at the lack of understanding from the US policies and understanding of the world. I was given this gift which commemorates your summit with President Trump in Helsinki. This coin, it was printed in the United States, it has grammatical errors, it has spelling mistakes in Russian. My question for you is really: what would you tell the leaders of my country to better understand the Russian history, to better understand their perspective, your perspective that the two countries can get along better in the future?
As a historian, you know that you need to study history to know it, just read it. There is nothing difficult in that. And when you do this, you will understand the motives of your partners.
History is a useful and very interesting subject. You and I know the saying that to know the future you must know the past. I find it difficult today to make any recommendations, which is a thankless exercise anyway.
You said that Russia is a great power. The United States is a great power as well, with a population of over 300 million and the world’s largest economy. The US dollar is actually the only universal reserve currency. America has huge advantages. It spends $700 billion on defence.
We spend $46 billion and the United States spends $700 billion. This is more than the aggregate defence spending of all the world’s countries. Of course, the United States is a great power. And this is how we treat it. Countries must respect each other and show their respect in practice.
We talked here about all kinds of restrictions, including in dollar-denominated settlements. Or various sanctions and customs tariffs that have been introduced against some countries, for example, China.
According to the WTO, mutual restrictions that have been recently introduced by the G20 countries have reduced global trade by nearly $500 billion. Has this benefitted any country, including an economic giant such as the United States?
This has created windows of opportunity for us. For example, we will export soybeans to China. The United States used to deliver vast amounts of soybeans to China, and now we will do this as well. We have agreed with our Chinese friends to supply them with poultry meat and several other agricultural products.
In fact, the Americans have voluntarily withdrawn from this huge market. Why have they? I believe one must strive for a positive result without trying to harm one’s partners but instead looking for joint spheres of operation so as to ultimately make cooperation more effective.
This will benefit all sides. But everyone stands to lose from unilateral and politically motivated harmful measures that are illegal from the viewpoint of international trade law.
What can I recommend here? Abandon this policy and start looking for points of contact. We are ready for this, and we want this, as I have said more than once. I hope to discuss this with the US President, if we meet in Argentina. As I understand and feel, this is what he meant when we talked during the lunch in Paris, where we sat across from each other. We had about an hour to talk with each other and with the other colleagues who sat next to us.
Overall, I believe that President Trump is favourably disposed. We must find the points of contact I have mentioned, but this depends on the US administration, not me. You need internal consensus in the United States, which would motivate the US elite to work with its partners….
Michael Henry: Michael Henry from Wellington Management in Boston. Thank you very much for being here today and for thoughtful comments. My question to you is to look forward a little bit. You are obviously the most dominant figure in Russia domestically, politically and the face of Russia abroad. But I am wondering if you could tell us what you think Russia would look like the day after President Putin exits the political scene.
Why the hurry? I am not going anywhere yet. But I can tell you the following: Russia is already feeling confident, self-sufficient but it is also open to cooperation with all our partners, including the United States. I hope that this realisation will eventually come to them and the need to solve our common problems and matters will encourage us to work together efficiently.
As concerns Russia’s development, I have just talked about this in my speech, as well as just now, when I was answering a question. We have a whole range of national projects. I hope they will be carried out more or less but they are large-scale and ambitious tasks. But if we confidently follow the path to their solution, the country will be heading towards changing for the better.
Jacob Grapengiesser (retranslated):Jacob Grapengiesser from East Capital. I want to ask you about the relationship with Ukraine. First of all, maybe a bit on the incident in the Kerch Strait, what really happened there and why those vessels were kind of taken into Russian custody. Secondly, there are elections in Ukraine next year. Do you think there will be anti-Russian propaganda or campaigning from the Ukrainian politicians to score some points in the elections possibly? And will that lead to more tension with Russia? Thirdly, how could you normalize the relationship with Ukraine in the long term?
As concerns the incident in the Black Sea, it was obviously a provocation organised by the current officials – I think, by the incumbent president, ahead of the presidential election in Ukraine to be held next March.
The current president is, I think, fifth in the popularity rating and there is a chance he may not make it into the second round. Therefore, he needs to do something to escalate the situation and create unsurpassable obstacles for his rivals, especially in the opposition.
Why do I think so and why am I even certain that this is the case? Look, there was an incident (I will speak about it in a minute) in the Black Sea. But it is a border incident, nothing more. What happened in 2014 when Crimea decided to join Russia? That was a different story, a big one.
What about the painful civil war in southeastern Ukraine, in Donbass, in the Lugansk region, when government forces deployed tanks and heavy artillery, even aviation? It was a war while no martial law was declared.
Now, a small Black Sea incident resulted in martial law. This is clearly a measure taken because of the presidential election. It is absolutely obvious.
Now regarding this incident, or provocation, to be exact. Certainly, this is a provocation. Look, last September roughly the same convoy of Ukrainian military ships passed through the Kerch Strait under the Kerch Bridge to the Sea of Azov.
They fully complied with all agreements and requirements, informing the border guards about what ships made up the convoy, who they were and where they were going. We provided them with a pilotage service and quietly led them to their destination in the Sea of Azov.
What happened this time? They did not respond to our border guard’s requests. They entered our territorial waters. I would like you to note that they entered our territorial waters which were ours before Crimea became part of the Russian Federation. That is, they entered the waters which have always been Russian territorial waters.
Without responding to our border guards, they proceeded to move towards the [Kerch] Bridge. Neither did they respond to our proposal to moor the ships at the marina. Our proposal to take a pilot – even after the violation of our state border they, nevertheless, were offered to take a pilot – was met with silence, there was no reaction whatsoever.
What should border guards do in a situation like this? Military ships had entered Russian territorial waters and were not responding to our border guards and it was unclear what they were going to do. What did the border guards have to do? Had they acted differently, all of them would have been put on trial. They were fulfilling their military duty, the order they were given and, as things stand, they were fulfilling their legitimate functions to protect the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation.
I believe that the same would have been done in your country, it is absolutely clear. Also, it was discovered that two Ukrainian Security Service officers were among the crew members and, in fact, were in charge of this special operation. They have acknowledged they were Ukrainian Security Service officers. These are clear signs of a provocation that had been planned in advance so it could be used as a pretext for introducing martial law in the country.
This has nothing to do with the efforts being taken to put relations between Russia and Ukraine back on track. This is a game to exacerbate tension, this is an immoral game that is being played in the country in order to neutralise someone’s political opponents. You know, sometimes it is amazing to see…
In fact, I have already got used to many things but today’s Kiev authorities…They have succeeded in selling anti-Russia sentiments and they have nothing else to sell. It seems that no matter what they do, they always get away with it. If they ask to be given infants for breakfast they will probably have them served. Well, we will be told, they want to eat and that is it.
This is a very short-sighted policy. It will not lead to good things because it tends to unnerve today’s Ukrainian leadership in a way that it does not urge them to get down to normal political work within the country and start pursuing normal economic policy.
They have economic problems in addition to social and financial problems and they never stop to beg, asking the International Monetary Fund to give them money. But these are the future generations who will have to pay this money back. As for their work to promote cooperation with their neighbours, there is nothing good to speak about.
As for long-term prospects, no matter what happens, no matter who is today in power in Kiev, the Russian and Ukrainian people have always been brotherly and very closely connected and will remain as such for ever. This political scum will come off. (Applause.) One day, the Ukrainian people will assess its today’s leadership in the way the Georgian people have assessed the activities of [Mikheil] Saakashvili.
To be continued.