JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Presses Case for Greater Control Over Its Internet” – AP

File Image of Laptop Computer, Tables and Mobile Device, adapted from image at energy.gov

“… Kremlin spokesman [Peskov] said … reports that the U.S. military carried out a cyberattack in Russia ahead of the U.S. midterm elections proves that the country needs to create its own, self-controlled segment of the internet. Russia’s parliament this month passed the first reading of a bill that proposes all internet traffic be routed through servers in Russia. Opponents […]

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Do Trump’s Afghanistan Claims Mirror Moscow’s Rhetoric?

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – January 11, 2019 – russiamatters.org/blog/do-trumps-afghanistan-claims-mirror-moscows-rhetoric) Earlier this month, President Donald Trump offered his take on Soviet Russia’s experiences in Afghanistan as he argued in favor of a huge U.S. troop withdrawal and a larger contribution by Moscow to stabilize the war-racked country. The U.S. president put forward two basic propositions: that the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump Outlines Broader Missile-Defense Strategy; Plan’s vision includes space-based sensors to detect hostile or accidental launches” – Wall Street Journal/ Gordon Lubold, Courtney McBride

Mssile Defense Control Room

“… Trump called … for … expanded and more sophisticated missile-defense … and said America’s allies must share in future costs …. The missile-defense plan, put forth by … Trump … at the Pentagon, is laid out in a review ordered early in the Trump administration and issued Thursday, the first such review in nine years. … call[ing] for new, […]

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NEWSLINK: “American Charged in Russia Also Holds British, Canadian and Irish Citizenship” – Wall Street Journal

File Photo of British Parliament Building, Big Ben, Thames, adapted from image at loc.gov

“A former U.S. Marine arrested on espionage charges in Russia was removed from the military for trying to steal more than $10,000 in government cash while deployed at a base in Iraq, according to details of Defense Department court records released Friday. …”

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Think tank: NATO must prepare to counter a rapid Russia invasion in Europe” – Military Times/ Stephen Losey

NATO Meeting file photo

“Russia is positioned to quickly defeat forward-deployed U.S. and NATO forces and grab land before reinforcements could arrive, according to a new paper from the Atlantic Council …. In the Dec. 13 paper, ‘Permanent Deterrence: Enhancements to the U.S. Military Presence in North Central Europe,’ former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove and former Deputy […]

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Russia Rises To Second In Global Arms Sales, With U.S. Still At No. 1

File Photo of T-72 Tanks in Bulgaria, adapted from image at defense.gov, with photo credit to Cpl. Immanuel Johnson

(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Dec. 10, 2018 – also appeared at rferl.org/a/putin-calls-us-senator-mccain-old-world-but-admires-his-patriotism/28537171.html) The United States remains the global leader in arms sales, while Russia has surpassed Britain to take the No. 2 spot as it attempts to modernize its military, a leading research group says. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A Cold War Arms Treaty Is Unraveling. But the Problem Is Much Bigger.” – New York Times/David E. Sanger, William J. Broad

Iskander Missile with Launch file photo

“… The United States and Russia no longer have a monopoly on the missiles that … Reagan and … Gorbachev agreed in 1987 to ban with the … I.N.F.[] agreement. … China relies on similar missiles for 95 percent of its ground-based fleet, and Iran, India, Saudi Arabia, North Korea and Taiwan are among the 10 states with similar, fast-growing […]

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Any U.S.-Russia Military Clash ‘Highly Likely’ to Escalate into Nuclear War, Arbatov Says

File Photo of F-22 Fighter and Ground Crew

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, December 4, 2018) Aleksey Arbatov, a foreign policy specialist at the Institute of World Economics and International affairs, says that “any armed clash between Russia and the US with a high degree of probability will escalate into nuclear war,” a warning reflecting an all too real possibility but also one intended to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. military might ‘struggle to win, or perhaps lose’ war with China or Russia, report says” – CBS

File Photo of F-22 Fighter and Ground Crew

“Absent renewed investment … and … strategic realignment of its … capabilities, the U.S. military could lose the next state-versus-state war it fights, according to … the National Defense Strategy Commission. ‘America’s ability to defend its allies, its partners and its own vital interests is increasingly in doubt’ … ‘It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Top Russian envoy warns U.S. on missile deployment after treaty exit; Stationing new weapons in Europe could spark ‘dramatic events’, says Vladimir Chizhov” – Financial Times/ Michael Peel

EU Map

“…. Trump’s decision last month to pull out of the [INF Treaty] [reportedly came] because Russia has allegedly long breached it – an accusation Moscow denies. U.S. officials have been visiting European capitals to discuss next steps … rul[ing] out the deployment of new nuclear weapons on the continent and [saying] there were no plans to add any conventional missiles […]

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With Russia and the U.S., Nuclear Risks Never Go Out of Vogue

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Jon B. Wolfsthal – November 8, 2018 – russiamatters.org/analysis/russia-and-us-nuclear-risks-never-go-out-vogue) Jon B. Wolfsthal is the director of the Nuclear Crisis Group and a former senior director on the National Security Council. This week marks an important nuclear milestone of the Cold War: Thirty-five years ago, the United States almost accidentally provoked the Soviet Union into starting […]

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NATO’s Trident Juncture Exercise as a Deterrence Signal to Russia

Globe Highlighting NATO Members

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dmitry Gorenburg – November 1, 2018 – russiamatters.org/analysis/natos-trident-juncture-exercise-deterrence-signal-russia) Dmitry Gorenburg is a senior research scientist in the strategic studies division of CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization based in Virginia. He is also an associate of Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and the editor of Problems of Post-Communism. This week, NATO […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Pentagon Has Prepared a Cyberattack Against Russia; U.S. military hackers have been given the go-ahead to gain access to Russian cybersystems as part of potential retaliation for any meddling in America’s elections.” – Center for Public Integrity/ Zachary Fryer-Biggs/ The Daily Beast

Aerial Photo of Pentagon and Environs

“The U.S. intelligence community and the Pentagon have quietly agreed on the outlines of an offensive cyberattack … if Russia electronically interferes with the 2018 midterm election [according to unnamed officials] …. U.S. military hackers have been given the go-ahead to gain access to Russian cybersystems … needed to let the plan unfold quickly …. one of the first major […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, the victim? Opposite NATO’s eastern flank, it’s an expansionist West causing anxiety” – Defense News/Matthew Bodner

NATO Meeting file photo

“… NATO has long been Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favorite foreign boogeyman and, as far as political footballs go, this one has been easy and fruitful to kick around at home. … NATO troops and hardware are being forward deployed to former Soviet satellites in eastern Europe; in June, the alliance unveiled a new initiative – dubbed the ‘Four 30s’ […]

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RUSSIALINK: “U.S. may rearm some strategic delivery vehicles reequipped under New START with up to 2,000 nuclear warheads – Ryabkov” – Interfax

Sergei Ryabkov file photo

MOSCOW. Aug 21 (Interfax) – The United States could potentially rearm some of its strategic delivery vehicles reequipped under the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty (New START) with up to 2,000 nuclear warheads, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. “One of the major issues we are continuing to discuss with the Americans, including within the framework of the Bilateral Consultative […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “More U.S. Marines to train in Norway, closer to Russia” – Reuters

Map of Norway and Region, with Norway Highlighted, adapted from image at cdc.gov

“The United States will more than double the number of Marines stationed in Norway [from 330 to 700] … the Norwegian defence ministry said …. [That and] and moving some of them closer to the border with Russia … triggered a sharp reaction from Moscow, which called the plans ‘clearly unfriendly.’ … Oslo, increasingly concerned about Russia since the [2014] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “In Gorky Park, with nuclear worries” – The Hill/Matthew Bunn

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… U.S. nuclear weapons are aimed at military targets, from nuclear missile silos to military bases and production facilities. But many of those targets are located not far from cities, and the terrible destructive power of nuclear weapons does not discriminate. … Today, both Russia and the United States are modernizing their nuclear forces to keep these threats robust for […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “This is not a hoax, and things are not okay” – Washington Post/Joe Scarborough

Historic Washington Post Masthead, adapted from image at nlrb.gov

“… Imagine that U.S. military leaders spent most of 1941 warning President Franklin D. Roosevelt and his Democratic Party of a coming Pearl Harbor attack. Then imagine history’s harsh judgment against FDR’s party had it ignored those concerns, voted against efforts to fortify the Pacific fleet and plotted the firing of generals who were working to expose the looming Japanese […]

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NEWSLINK: “How Roads Could Win or Lose a War With Russia; Amid cries to increase NATO defense spending, many see investments in heavy vehicles and good roads as ways to deter Russia” – Popular Mechanics

U.S. Military Convoy Headed to Ukraine, On Highway Near Mountains or Cliffs

“As Russia rises in Eastern Europe, the best deterrence against Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical ambitions may not be more tanks and missiles, but new roads that can carry heavy civilian transport vehicles. That could solve NATO’s big problem, which is the inability to get vehicles and supplies where they’re needed fast. Roads Win Wars: The strategic challenge for NATO is easy […]

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Big Weapons, Big Meeting: Could Trump, Putin Agree On New Arms Control Deal?

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Mike Eckel – WASHINGTON – July 14, 2018 – also appeared at rferl.org/a/big-weapons-big-meeting-could-trump-putin-agree-on-new-arms-control-deal-/29365115.html) Just before departing Washington to travel to the NATO summit in Brussels, a meeting with Britain’s prime minister in England, and an upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, U.S. President Donald Trump made […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Iran Role in Syria Key Item at Trump-Putin Summit” – AP

Syria Map

“As fighting wanes after seven years of war, the U.S. has made curtailing Iran’s influence in post-war Syria a strategic objective – one strongly backed by Israel. … officials from the U.S. and Russia have signaled that a broad framework for such a deal is likely to be the main outcome. But any agreement is likely to be carefully phrased […]

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Stephen J. Cimbala: “Arms Control and the Trump-Putin Summit”

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

Subject: Arms Control and the Trump-Putin Summit Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2018 From: STEPHEN CIMBALA <sjc2@psu.edu> Arms Control and the Trump-Putin Summit By Stephen J. Cimbala Stephen J. Cimbala is Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Penn State Brandywine. Dr Cimbala is an award winning Penn State teacher and the author of numerous works in the fields of national security […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Trump, Putin May Agree to Resume Stalled Arms Control Talks” – Reuters

Russian Nuclear Submarine

“… When [Trump and Putin] meet in Helsinki … they are likely to touch on whether to extend the “New START” agreement to 2026 and what to do about … the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) …. Historically, arms control has been an area where Washington and Moscow have been able to talk to one another even when their broader […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH/ RUSSIAWATCH: “How to Reduce Nuclear Risks in Helsinki” – Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor Ivanov, Sam Nunn, Desmond Browne/Russian International Affairs Council

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… First, begin discussions on how to increase decision time for leaders to reduce the risk of a false warning of a nuclear attack or a nuclear accident or miscalculation. … Second, begin discussions on reducing and managing cyber nuclear risks. … Third, work jointly to restart bilateral crisis management dialogue, including among uniformed military leaders in charge of nuclear […]

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NEWSLINK: “In Eastern Europe, Militaries Gird Against Russian Might and Manipulation” – New York Times/Eric Schmitt

Map of Baltics and Environs, Including Kaliningrad

“… The bloggers had borrowed a page from the playbook of Russia’s so-called hybrid warfare, which American and Lithuania officials say has increasingly combined the ability to manipulate events using a mix of subterfuge, cyberattacks and information warfare with conventional military might. The 12-day military exercise, which involved 18,000 American and allied troops spread across four countries formerly part of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Pushes NATO to Ready More Forces to Deter Russian Threat” – Reuters

NATO Meeting file photo

“The United States is pressing European allies to ready more NATO battalions, ships and planes for combat … to shore up NATO’s deterrence against a potential Russian attack. … seek[ing] broad agreement for the plan … when … defense ministers meet, laying the ground for endorsement by NATO leaders at a [July] summit …. [envisioning] 30 land battalions, 30 air […]

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NEWSLINK: “Don’t Be Fooled – Ukraine Is Not a Frozen Conflict. There are signs of escalation in the simmering conflict.” – The National Interest/Lyle Goldstein

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“With the North Korea and Iran pots both simultaneously coming to a boil, it’s naturally hard for national security specialists to take on any more complex and dangerous issues. Yet Syria and Yemen demand major attention as human rights catastrophes. … U.S. troops are still somehow mired in Afghanistan – ‘the forever war’ …. there is the seeming possibility of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH AUDIO: “In Russia, Scant Traces And Negative Memories Of A Century-Old U.S. Intervention” – National Public Radio (NPR)/Lucian Kim

U.S. Troops Marching on Vladivostok Street ca. 1918, Followed by Other Allied Troops, adapted from image at almc.army.mil

[Transcript, photos, original audio: npr.org/sections/parallels/2018/05/28/608455970/in-russia-scant-traces-and-negative-memories-of-a-century-old-u-s-intervention]  “… civil war was raging across Russia … [between] the Bolsheviks … [and] the ‘Whites’ – supporters of the deposed czar, republicans, social democrats, Cossacks. … the Bolsheviks withdrew Russia from [World War I] in March 1918. … More than 8,000 U.S. troops started landing in Vladivostok in August 1918 to guard Allied military stocks … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Keeping the ‘New Cold War’ Cold: Nuclear Deterrence With U.S. and Russian Nuclear Force Modernization [Excerpt]” – PONARS Eurasia/Keith Darden

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

(PONARS Eurasia – Keith Darden – May 2018) Keith Darden is Associate Professor in the School of International Service at American University. (PONARS Policy Memo) After two decades of dramatic reduction and deliberate neglect, the nuclear arsenals that were at the center of security relations between the Cold War superpowers are reaching the ends of their operational lives. Rather than […]

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NEWSLINK: “Russians Posed as ISIS Hackers to Threaten U.S. Military Wives; ‘Bloody Valentine’s Day!’ they wrote” – AP

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

“Army wife Angela Ricketts was soaking in a bubble bath in her Colorado home, leafing through a memoir, when a message appeared on her iPhone from hackers threatening to slaughter her family. … the women were targeted not by jihadists but by … [a] Russian hacking group ….”

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NEWSLINK: “U.S. trains troops for front line in ‘hybrid war’ with Russia” – CBS

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… The U.S. is supporting its ally Ukraine in a war against Russian-backed militants. The rebels have seized swathes of territory in eastern Ukraine since 2014, in a conflict that’s killed 10,000 people by some counts. … Ukraine says thousands of Russians are fighting in the east, alongside the rebels. Moscow has repeatedly denied it’s involved in the conflict ….”

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NEWSLINK: “The Navy is resurrecting a fleet to protect the East Coast and North Atlantic from Russia” – Washington Post/Alex Horton

Aerial Photo of Pentagon and Environs

“The U.S. Navy has reactivated a fleet responsible for overseeing the East Coast and North Atlantic — an escalation of the Pentagon’s focus on a resurgent Russia and its expanding military presence. …”

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NEWSLINK: “NATO Prepares for War With Russia With Simulated Naval and Cyberattacks” – Newsweek/Cristina Maza

Globe Highlighting NATO Members

“… As tensions ratchet up between Moscow and the West, NATO countries, especially those like Estonia that border Russia, are increasingly preparing for the worst. The Locked Shields live-fire cyber exercise is a key part of that preparation. …”

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West, Russia ‘Share Interest’ In Afghan Stability, Top U.S. Commander Says

File Photo of U.S. NATO Troops Atop Ridge in Afghanistan

(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – April 28, 2018 – also appeared at rferl.org/a/afghanistan-west-russia-share-interest-in-stability-top-u-s-commander-says/29197663.html) The West and Russia have a shared interest in Afghanistan’s stability, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan has told RFE/RL. “We both share an interest in countering the terrorists who threaten our country and threaten Russia and threaten Central Asia,” General John […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russia wants U.S. military out of Syria. But it still needs U.S. to help bring peace.” – Christian Science Monitor/Fred Weir

Syria Map

“… Analysts say that Moscow was serious when it hinted that it would strike back against U.S. warships in the Mediterranean or other launch platforms if any Russian lives were endangered by U.S. missiles. But … they say that the exchange of explosive declarations last week turned out to be mostly theater. Kremlin-connected analysts say that US and Russian military […]

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Western Attack Hasn’t Changed Situation in Syria or Harmed Moscow Despite Russian Public Reaction, Akopov Says

Syria Map

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, April 15, 2018) The Western attack on Syria hasn’t changed the likely outcome of the conflict there, Bashar Asad’s alliances with Russia and Iran, or Vladimir Putin’s view of Donald Trump, Petr Akopov says; but it has already led to a transformation of Russian public opinion in adequate ways that could have […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Why Putin Is Obsessed with America’s Missile Defense” – The National Interest/Eric Gomez

Mssile Defense Control Room

“In a speech before Russia’s Federal Assembly … Putin unveiled several new nuclear-weapons systems. … less than a month after the release of the Trump … Nuclear Posture Review … [naming] Russia as a primary strategic competitor of the United States and call[ing] for new low-yield nuclear weapons to counteract Russia’s alleged (and highly disputed) ‘escalate to deescalate’ strategy. The […]

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NEWSWATCH: “U.S. policy doc hints at ‘limited’ nuclear arms use, alarming Russians” – Christian Science Monitor/Fred Weir

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“Russians read a new Pentagon policy document as allowing the use of nuclear weapons outside the bounds of ‘mutually assured destruction’ … The new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) released by the Pentagon … has been received [in Moscow] with shock, and even a touch of fear, because for the first time in almost three decades it appears to talk about […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russian Hackers Hunt Hi-Tech Secrets, Exploiting US Weakness” [excerpt] – AP

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

“Russian cyberspies pursuing the secrets of military drones and other sensitive U.S. defense technology tricked key contract workers into exposing their email to theft …. What ultimately may have been stolen is uncertain, but the hackers clearly exploited a national vulnerability in cybersecurity: poorly protected email and barely any direct notification to victims. The hackers known as Fancy Bear, who […]

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NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Russia Say They Have Met Nuclear-Reduction Targets Under Treaty; Nations meet Monday deadline, but face task of renewing pact in three years amid dispute over another weapons agreement” – Wall Street Journal/Felicia Schwartz, Michael R. Gordon, James Marson

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“The U.S. and Russia said they have fulfilled obligations under a 2010 treaty to reduce … strategic nuclear warheads … by a Monday deadline. … [they] still face the task of renewing the pact when it expires in three years amid a dispute over another weapons agreement. … the U.S. alleges Moscow is violating a separate 1987 accord banning American […]

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NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Outlines Plan on Nuclear-Weapons Use; Policy says arsenal might be option in response to major nonnuclear attack” – Wall Street Journal/Michael R. Gordon

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“… a new … [U.S.] Nuclear Posture Review [declares that t]he U.S. … would consider using nuclear weapons only in ‘extreme circumstances’ to defend itself and its allies, including against ‘significant non-nuclear strategic attacks. … includ[ing] but … not limited to, attacks on the U.S., allied, or partner civilian population or infrastructure … nuclear forces, their command and control, or […]

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NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. will send antitank weaponry to Ukraine. Here are 4 big questions” – Washington Post/Andrew S. Bowen

File Photo of Soldier Firing Javelin Shoulder-Mounted Anti-Tank Missile

“The Trump administration last week announced updated sanctions on Russian individuals and companies …. Since 2015, the conflict in eastern Ukraine has continued to simmer, with no apparent political solution on the horizon. The seizure of territory has largely ended, leaving both sides vexed at their failure to achieve their objectives. The U.S. decision in late 2017 to provide the […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Pentagon: China, Russia Outpace Terrorism Threat” – AP

Aerial Photo of Pentagon and Environs

“Countering China’s rapidly expanding military and an increasingly aggressive Russia are now the U.S. military’s top national security priorities, outpacing the threat of terrorism, the Pentagon said …. A new national defense strategy says that competition with China and Russia has threatened America’s military advantage around the world. … require[ing] increased investment to make U.S. forces more lethal, agile and […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Latest U.S.-Russian Effort on Syria: Good for Preventing Accidents, So-So for Everything Else” – Russia Matters/ Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Syria Map

“The one concrete result to emerge from … Trump and … Putin’s informal meetings on the sidelines of … APEC … has been the Nov. 11 U.S.-Russia Joint Statement on Syria. … [which] has elicited some official optimism, but what does it amount to really? … a promising step forward to end the strife in that war-torn land and ‘save tremendous numbers of lives,’ as Trump […]

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NEWSLINK: “U.S. Special-Operations Forces Have Quietly Moved Onto the Russian Border; The percentage of special operators deployed to Europe quadrupled last year” – The Nation/ Nick Turse

Globe Highlighting NATO Members

“… Since 9/11, U.S. Special Operations forces (SOF) have grown in every conceivable way from funding to manpower, the pace of operations to geographic sweep. On any given day, about 8,000 special operators – from a command numbering roughly 70,000 in total – are deployed in around 80 countries. Over the course of a year, they operate in about 70 […]

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Putin Is Filling the Middle East Power Vacuum

Syria Map

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Henry Meyer, Donna Abu-Nasr – October 3, 2017) The Israelis and Turks, the Egyptians and Jordanians — they’re all beating a path to the Kremlin in the hope that Vladimir Putin, the new master of the Middle East, can secure their interests and fix their problems. The latest in line is Saudi King Salman, who on […]

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Two Years on, the Stakes of Russia’s War in Syria Are Piling; Russia may have helped Assad win the war, but crucial decisions lie ahead

Syria Map

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Vladimir Frolov – September 29, 2017) Two years ago, on Sept. 30, 2015, Russian warplanes launched their first airstrikes in Syria, plunging Russia into a civil war that had already been festering for four years. Moscow intervened in Syria vowing to fight Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, terrorist groups banned in Russia. Its objective was […]

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NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Senate approves $500 million military aid, lethal weapons for Ukraine”

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The … Senate passed … the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018, authorizing the provision to Ukraine of $500 million worth of military aid, including lethal defensive weapons. … approved 89 to 8 votes, [the bill] will now go to the president’s desk … [it passed] the House … on July 14. * * * The executive summary … [says] that half of the $500 million … will be withheld until […]

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