Russia in for recession, high inflation even if oil rebounds to $80-$90 – RenCap

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

MOSCOW. Jan 21 (Interfax) – The Russian economy will not see any growth and inflation will remain high in 2015 even if oil prices rebound to $80-$90 per barrel, economists at Renaissance Capital believe. At an oil price of about $60, which is the investment bank’s baseline scenario, Russia’s GDP will contract by 4.3% in 2015 and average annual inflation […]

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Interfax: In 2008 crisis also came from abroad, Russia resolved problems by itself – Putin

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Desk

NOVO-OGARYOVO. Jan 21 (Interfax) – The current, critical situation in the Russian economy was provoked from abroad, President Vladimir Putin believes. “I want to remind you that this is not the first situation of its kind which we are going through. We went through the same thing in 2008 and 2009. Then the crisis also came from the outside, it […]

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State Department Report on U.S.-Russia Relations [excerpt]

State Department Building and U.S. Flag

(United States Department of State – International Security Advisory Board – December 9, 2014) [DJ: Best to read this from the PDF file. Complete text with footnotes and appendices here http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/235118.pdf] MEMORANDUM FOR UNDER SECRETARY GOTTEMOELLER SUBJECT: Final Report of the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) on U.S.-Russia Relations I am forwarding herewith the ISAB’s report on U.S.-Russia Relations. The […]

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Ambassador John F. Tefft Speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia

John Tefft file photo

(US Embassy Moscow – January 20, 2015) Thank you for that introduction, Alex. I am grateful for this opportunity to speak to members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia. I am sure you already know them and work closely with them, but let me start by introducing my team. First, there is Deputy Chief of Mission Lynne Tracy […]

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Ten New Laws That Will Affect Your Life in Russia in 2015

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – January 21, 2015) New year, new you: An expression that has taken on a special meaning for those living in Russia, where a plethora of new laws – many with a direct impact on the daily lives of citizens and residents – entered into effect on Jan. 1. The Moscow Times has […]

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Putin’s Attacks on Science, Rooted in His Fear of the Educated, Destroying Russia’s Future, Koch Says

File Photo of Test Tubes with Algae Displaying Different Colors, Part of U.S. Energy-Related Research; from nrel.gov

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – January 20, 2014) Vladimir Putin “understands that the threat to his regime is to be found among the thinking and educated” and thus has been taking steps to “destroy higher education” in Russia and cut the financing of science, according to Moscow commentator Alfred Koch. Such actions may buy Putin some short term protection, […]

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Moscow Times: Russian Culture Ministry Reverses Plans to Ban Films That Undermine ‘National Unity’

Movie Theater file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – January 20, 2015) The Culture Ministry has reversed plans to deny distribution licenses to films deemed harmful to Russia’s “national unity,” after the proposed restrictions drew widespread criticism. A ministry spokesman said some of the requirements set for films seeking clearance for screening in Russian movie theaters and on television had been lifted, the Interfax […]

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Moscow Times: Over Half of French Citizens Think Paris Should Deliver Mistral Warship to Russia

Mistral Class Ship

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – January 20, 2015) Over 60 percent of French citizens think their country should honor a 1.2 billion euro ($1.39 billion) contract with Russia for the stalled delivery of two French-built Mistral-class helicopter carriers, according to a poll published Tuesday. In contrast, 36 percent of French citizens support French President Francois Hollande’s decision to deliver the […]

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Moscow Times: New Russian Space Station Blueprint Ready for Kremlin Consideration

International Space Station file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – January 20, 2015) A prominent research institute affiliated with Russia’s space agency will present conceptual designs for a new Russian national space station to the government’s military-industrial commission that would potentially replace the International Space Station (ISS), the institute’s deputy director said. “We have prepared the relevant materials,” said Alexander Danilyuk, the […]

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Double trouble – Russia 2014 vs 2008

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – COMMENT: Peter Szopo of Erste Asset Management – January 20, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/comment-double-trouble-russia-2014-vs-2008] History, they say, does not repeat itself – it rhymes. Even if this were true, history’s rhymes are clunky at best. While Russia’s current crisis has obvious parallels with the turmoil in 2008, such as the drop in oil prices, […]

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Russia Beyond the Headlines: Is a banking crisis looming in Russia?

Russian Central Bank file photo

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – January 20, 2015) The Russian government will supply banks with nearly $15 billion to help stave off a possible financial crisis. Only banks that are willing to increase credit in the production sector of the economy will be eligible to receive the money. In such a way the government […]

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Business New Europe: Pain but no disaster in store for Russia, says Rencap

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – January 20, 2015) If the average price of oil in 2015 is $60 then Russia’s economy will contract by 4.3% and the ruble will be RUB56.4 to the dollar, say analysts at Renaissance Capital in a note released on January 20 exploring different oil price scenarios. Oil prices have fallen from […]

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Igor Eidman: Putin became a fascist-style leader in mid-2014

Kremlin and Environs Aerial View

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – January 20, 2014) [from Euromaidan PR: Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. He has served as director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy, vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn, and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege […]

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Russia Beyond the Headlines: Gazprom throws down the gauntlet to Europe over gas supplies via Turkey

Gas Facility file photo

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – January 19, 2015) Russian gas giant Gazprom says Europe must build a new pipeline from Turkey if it wants to secure energy supplies via its new route that cuts out Ukraine. Russia had been intending to supply gas to Europe that bypassed Ukraine through South Stream, which was to […]

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Interfax: Russians begin to feel economic crisis – poll

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

(Interfax – January 19, 2015) Almost two-thirds of Russian citizens (62 percent) think that the country is living through an economic crisis although it has no effect on their finances as of yet, the Public Opinion Foundation said. The crisis mostly manifests itself in Moscow (70 percent) and cities with a population of 50,000 to 250,000 (71 percent), said 1,500 […]

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Interfax: Medvedev calls agreements on electricity shipments to Ukraine and Crimea mutually beneficial

Electrical Yard file photo

GORKI. Jan 20 (Interfax) – Agreements to ship electricity to Crimea and Ukraine are beneficial to both parties, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a meeting with Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Gazprom (MOEX: GAZP) CEO Alexei Miller. He also said that work must continue in this area. “I think that this is a form of support, in this […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#13 table of contents with links :: Tuesday 20 January 2015

St. Basil's file photo

[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List JRL 2015-#13 :: Tuesday 20 January 2015 E-Mail: davidjohnson@starpower.net A project of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs: www.ieres.org JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist  JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  Ukraine 1. Euromaidan Press: Olena Bilozerska, The day Euromaidan turned violent, one […]

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Business New Europe: Russia’s tech sector defies downturn

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – January 16, 2015) Most of Russia’s economy will be in the proverbial dustbin in 2015, except for the technology sector. The gadget-loving Russians have been driving the explosion of e-commerce in recent years, which is now starting to spill over into technological innovation and software development. Instead of the […]

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BOOK REVIEW: Russia’s Mobutu?

File Photo of Man Placing Stack of Large Bills into Inside Pocket of Suitcoat

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Derek Brower in London – January 13, 2015) Corruption in Vladimir Putin’s Russia has sprouted its own sub-genre for Western publishers. Few of the many books, though, have the laser-like focus or amass the same devastating detail as Karen Dawisha’s “Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?” (Simon & Schuster, New York: 2014). Thanks to Britain’s […]

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Moscow Times: Russian Oil Firms Can Weather $50 Oil

Oil Well file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Alexander Panin – January 16, 2015) If oil stays at its current price through this year, Russia’s gross domestic product will likely shrink more than 6.5 percent, but Russian oil companies will continue to make a profit at even lower prices, analysts at the Gaidar Economic Forum said Thursday. Oil prices climbed to $48.62 per […]

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Business New Europe: Russia’s output will slump sharply in 2015, but what about Ukraine?

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

(Business New Europe MOSCOW BLOG – bne.eu – Ben Aris – January 16, 2015) “Russia’s GDP is likely to plunge in 2015. Indeed, it would be prudent to expect a slump on the order of 10%. In many ways, Russia’s financial situation is eerily similar to the fall of 2008, when then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin called his country a safe haven […]

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Analysts Predict a Russian Descent Into Madness

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – January 19, 2015) President Vladimir Putin cannot afford at this point to reform the political system he has built up, as doing so would undermine his grip on power, a panel of political analysts said at the Gaidar Forum on Friday. They went on to warn that without fundamental change, Russia risks an […]

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Legislation proposes regulation of ‘undesirable’ foreign organizations

Russian State Duma Building file photo

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yekaterina Sinelschikova, RBTH – January 16, 2015) A bill that has passed its first reading the Russian State Duma would give the government the right to fine or ban foreign organizations it deems a security threat. Russia is trying to tighten its control over foreign organizations operating in the country. According to a […]

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Provincialism Keeping Russia from Becoming Great, Inozemtsev Says

Kremlin and Environs Aerial View

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, January 18, 2014) Russia’s latest turn to authoritarianism and isolationism was possible because of the provincialism of its leaders and people, a sense of being on the margins of the real world and one that prevents them from achieving greatness because they are less interested in that than in “seeking to present […]

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Interfax: Putin suggests Ukraine conflicting parties cease fire, pull back artillery guns larger than 100mm

Ukraine Map and Flag

(Interfax – January 19, 2015) The text of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s message to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was published on Sunday night. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov told Interfax about the message earlier. “The latest events in southeastern Ukraine – the resumed bombardments of populated areas in the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk – give us a deep sense […]

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Business New Europe: It’s time for a new pan-European Security treaty

Europe Map

(Business New Europe PERSPECTIVE – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – January 13, 2015) We are in the middle of the worst political crisis since the end of the Cold War and there is a very real, albeit still remote, possibility of war in Europe. Without attempting a detailed analysis of how we got here, in the broadest brush […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#12 table of contents with links :: Monday 19 January 2015

St. Basil's file photo

[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List JRL 2015-#12 :: Monday 19 January 2015 E-Mail: davidjohnson@starpower.net A project of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs: www.ieres.org JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist  JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  1. Der Spiegel: Gorbachev Interview. ‘I Am Truly and Deeply Concerned’ […]

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EU split on maintaining Russian sanctions

Truck at Russian Border Crossing

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – January 16, 2015) With European growth faltering, and mounting fears of a total meltdown of the Russian economy that no-one wants, the European Union’s commitment to sanctions on Russia is wavering. At least eight EU countries are reported to be against renewing EU economic and financial sanctions when they […]

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Russia Beyond the Headlines: Five reasons to watch Leviathan

Movie Theater file photo

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Anton Dolin, special to RBTH – January 16, 2015) Andrei Zvyagnitsev’s film has already taken home a Golden Globe and Palme d’Or at Cannes for best foreign film and it is now up for an Oscar. Still wonder if you should see it? Let RBTH erase any remaining doubts. 1. This is not […]

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Can Ukraine’s divided church help heal the divided country

Ukraine Map and Flag

(opendemocracy.net – Iannis Carras – January 15, 2015) Iannis Carras is an economic and social historian of the 18th century Balkan and Russian worlds. He is active in Greek NGOs and has been a parliamentary candidate in the Athens region for the Greek Green Party. In hardship, people turn to religion for help. Ukraine today is no exception. But is […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#11 table of contents with links :: Friday 16 January 2015

St. Basil's file photo

[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List JRL 2015-#11 :: Friday 16 January 2015 E-Mail: davidjohnson@starpower.net A project of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs: www.ieres.org JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist  JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  1. www.thedailybeast.com: Jay Michelson, Russia’s “Trans Driving Ban” Doesn’t Really Target […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#10 table of contents with links :: Thursday 15 January 2015

St. Basil's file photo

… 1. TheBlaze.com: Paul Gregory, The West Has Putin in a Box But Refuses to Pull the Trigger.
2. CNN.com: Robert Legvold, Why the new Cold War matters.
3. Reuters: Russia’s forests overlooked in climate change fight. …

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Interfax: Making people choose between terror, blasphemy wrong – Russian church official

Archpriest Vsevolad Chaplin file photo

(Interfax – January 14, 2015) Forcing people to choose between terrorism and blasphemy is dangerous, public relations chief of the Russian Orthodox Church Vsevolod Chaplin has said. He was speaking on the Russian Orthodox Church TV channel Spas on 14 January, as reported by Russian privately-owned news agency Interfax. A week after the deadly attacks in Paris, today the French […]

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Top Russian Official ‘Ashamed’ Of Culture Crackdown, Quits Ministry

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Claire Bigg – January 15, 2015) A prominent Russian public figure has slammed the country’s culture minister for overseeing a deepening crackdown on artists critical of authorities, quitting a ministerial commission in protest. Yevgeny Savostyanov, the head of Russia’s Coordination Council on Intellectual Property Protection, said in an open letter that he was “ashamed” of Culture […]

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Bolshoi Packed for Tribute to Legendary Singer Yelena Obraztsova

Bolshoi Theater file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Layli Foroudi – January 15, 2015) Hundreds of Russians paid their last respects to renowned and much-loved opera singer Yelena Obraztsova in the Bolshoi Theater on Wednesday. Roses, carnations and sunflowers in all sizes and quantities were tearfully and lovingly carried up the theater’s dark aisle to be placed at the base of her casket, […]

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What a ‘Junk’ Rating Would Mean for Russia

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – January 15, 2015) Russian officials and experts warned Wednesday that an expected decision by Standard and Poor’s to deprive Russia of its investment-grade credit rating could cost the country up to $30 billion and drain more money from an economy that is already entering recession. Major credit rating agencies Fitch and Standard […]

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Russian Prime Minister Scorns Fears, But Fails to Present Strategy at Economic Forum

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – January 15, 2015) While Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev radiated confidence Wednesday that Russia would be able to use the unfolding crisis as an impetus to make necessary changes to its economy, members of his government indicated that they do not have a concrete plan for bringing about reform. “The energy- and resource-dependent […]

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Primakov’s ‘Anti-Crisis Federalism’ Seen Threatening Russia’s Non-Russians

Map of Russia

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, January 15, 2015) Many in Russia and the West are celebrating Yevgeny Primakov’s argument presented at the Mercury Club this week that hyper-centralization, a policy associated with Vladimir Putin, is a threat to the Russian Federation and its economic recovery and his call for devolving more powers to the regions of the country. […]

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Interfax: Fifty-five percent of Russians want to see Putin as their president after 2018 – poll

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Outdoor Rally with Microphone in Hand and Heavy Coat

(Interfax – January 15, 2015) Fifty-five percent of Russian citizens recently interviewed by the Levada Center said they would like to see Vladimir Putin as Russia’s president after the 2018 elections, as compared with 32 percent in March 2014 and 26 percent in 2013, the center’s sociologists told Interfax. Ten percent of respondents said they would not be opposed to […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#9 table of contents with links :: Wednesday 14 January 2015

St. Basil's file photo

… 4. Christian Science Monitor: Fred Weir, Bear’s bad year? Russia faces grim economic outlook in 2015. Their two-week holiday at an end, Russians are once again confronted with low oil prices, a weakening ruble, and rocketing interest rates. And the Kremlin has yet to follow through on promised remedies.
5. Moscow Times/Vedomosti: Alexander Morozov, Russia Will Stick With Putin Till the Bitter End.
6. Interfax: World Bank expects Russian GDP to fall 2.9 percent in 2015, edge up in 2016.
7. Moscow Times/Reuters: Highlights of Gaidar: Russia’s Top Officials Talk Oil, Spending and Ruble. …

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RIA Novosti: Russian diplomat calls for renewed cooperation with West against ISIS

Map of Area Spanning Portions of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, highlighting military engagements against ISIL

(RIA Novosti – January 13, 2015) The Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) poses just as much of a threat to Russia as it does to the West, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s department of new threats and challenges, Ilya Rogachev, was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti (part of the state-owned International News Agency Rossiya Segodnya) on 13 January. “ISIL […]

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RIA Novosti: Diplomat says Russia to react to NATO build-up in Europe “if necessary”

NATO meeting file photo

(RIA Novosti – January 13, 2015) Russia is carefully monitoring how NATO is reinforcing its military presence in Eastern Europe, and is ready to take action in response if necessary, Mikhail Ulyanov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department of Security and Disarmament Issues, told RIA Novosti (part of the Russian state-owned International News Agency Rossiya Segodnya) on 13 January. […]

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Poll shows Russians becoming more hostile towards the West

World Map Showing Continents, Greens, Browns, Ice

(Interfax – Moscow, January 13, 2015) Almost half of Russians (47 per cent) believe that Russia’s long-term foreign policy should focus on strengthening relations with China, the Levada [public opinion research] centre has told Interfax. According to a poll carried out among 1,600 people in 134 population centres of the Russian Federation on 19-22 December, the second place went to […]

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Interfax: Putin to not attend Auschwitz liberation anniversary events in Poland

Auschwitz Concentration Entrance with Sign Arbeit Macht Frei

(Interfax – January 13, 2014) Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend ceremonies marking the 70th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp in Poland on January 27, although the Russian leader attaches great importance to all commemorative events, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told Interfax on Tuesday. “The president’s schedule does not include such a trip,” he […]

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Kremlin Foe Navalny Fined $10 For Cutting Ankle Bracelet

Alexei Navalny file photo

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – January 14, 2015) Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny has been convicted of large-scale theft twice and spent many nights in jail after street protests. The latest punishment meted out to one of the Kremlin’s fiercest foes is perhaps the least severe: a $10 fine. On his website on January 14, Navalny posted a note from Russia’s […]

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A new drama in Moscow: Teatr.doc – a pioneer of ‘New Drama’ in Russia – has recently been evicted from its basement home in Moscow. But is it all an act?

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(opendemocracy.net – Alexey Krizhevsky – January 14, 2015) Alexey Krizhevsky is culture editor at gazeta.ru and member of Teatr.doc Teatr.doc is on the move. Having performed its last plays and a holiday evening, the theatre packed its bags and left the tiny basement in the centre of Moscow – its home for many years. The director of the independent theatre, […]

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Culture Minister Wants ‘Patriotic Internet’ to Protect Russians

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anna Dolgov – January 15, 2015) Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky has called for the creation of a “patriotic Internet” to combat Western ideas, adding that those who are against Russia are against the truth. Russia needs to “consolidate the state and society on the basis of values instilled by our history,” said a statement released […]

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Interfax: World Bank expects Russian GDP to fall 2.9 percent in 2015, edge up in 2016

World Bank Building

(Interfax – January 14, 2015) The World Bank expects Russian GDP to contract by 2.9 percent in 2015, but edge up by 0.1 percent in 2016, the bank said in its January Global Economic Prospects report. The World Bank estimates that the Russian economy grew by 0.7 percent in 2014. The bank is forecasting that Russian economic growth will accelerate […]

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Health Ministry Says Transsexuals Can Still Drive in Russia

Moscow Traffic file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – January 14, 2015) The Health Ministry has denied widespread reports that transvestites and transsexuals could lose their rights to drive in Russia based on a new road safety decree. Although the decree provides for the disqualification of driving rights for certain individuals with psychological or behavioral disorders, the mere fact that a person has a […]

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U.S. Drama ‘House of Cards’ Features Putin Look-Alike in New Trailer

File Photo of Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama Seated Before Russian and U.S. Flags

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – January 13, 2015) [Trailer here http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/u-s-drama-house-of-cards-features-putin-look-alike-in-new-trailer/514243.html] A trailer for season three of U.S. hit series House of Cards has fans in a frenzy over what appear to be heavy hints that the new season’s plot line will feature a character based on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The new series will see actor Kevin Spacey reprise […]

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