Who’s to Blame? Sanctions, Economic Hardship, and Putin’s Fear of Color Revolutions

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(PONARS Eurasia Eurasia Policy Memo No. 767 – Stephen Crowley – April 18, 2022 – click here for PDF) Stephen Crowley is Professor of Politics at Oberlin College. He is the author of, Putin’s Labor Dilemma: Russian Politics between Stability and Stagnation (Cornell University Press, 2021), from which this memo is drawn. The sanctions now imposed on Russia—as severe as they are—are unlikely by […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and NATO: How to talk to Mr. Putin; Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has created a chance to enhance the security of Europe” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Perhaps [Putin] wants Ukraine to fail because, were it to become a thriving democracy, it would … rebuke … his claim that Western values are unworkable in Orthodox, Slavic Russia. He may also intend to divide and weaken NATO … [and] to create an enemy abroad … to justify repression at home …. But … Ukraine is as populous […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden wants to turn Ukraine into a porcupine” – Washington Post

File Photo of Soldier Firing Javelin Shoulder-Mounted Anti-Tank Missile

“…. Russia is heading to Geneva with what amounts to an ultimatum: Unless … Putin gets security guarantees from the West, he’s prepared to invade. Biden administration officials say they want a diplomatic solution, but they’ve also been delivering warnings through public and private channels that an invasion would be bloody, protracted and extremely damaging for Russia. … The Air […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Keep calm and carry on; Ukrainians are peculiarly relaxed about Russia’s troop build-up; Many have grown inured to a risk they can do nothing about” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Ukraine is deeply wary of threats to its independence, so one might expect widespread alarm … [over] 100,000 or so Russian troops at the border, and … [Putin] muttering … about ‘military-technical’ action. … [But] Ukrainians have weathered eight years of war against troops backed by Russia in … Donetsk and Luhansk, which have claimed 13,000 lives. … [T]hey […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Is Only One Small Part of Putin’s Plans” – New York Times

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“… The immediate aim, to be sure, is to return Ukraine to Russia’s orbit. But …. Putin’s design is grand: to refashion the post-Cold War settlement, in the process guaranteeing … Russia’s personalized power system. … Today, Ukraine is the jewel to fight for. But it won’t end there: Belarus, whose embattled leader relies on Russia’s support, could be the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2022” – Moscow Times

Satellite

The Moscow Times asked 10 commentators for their predictions for the coming year […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin wishes Russians happier new year, hails their strength” – AP/ Vladimir Isachenkov

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“In a televised address broadcast just before midnight in each of Russia’s 11 time zones, Putin said the nation … has faced ‘colossal challenges … ‘ … Russia’s state coronavirus task force has registered … about 10.5 million confirmed infections and 308,860 deaths, but the state statistics agency … [using] broader criteria … has reported nearly 626,000 virus-linked deaths in […]

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Background Press Call by a Senior Administration Official on President Biden’s Call with President Putin of the Russian Federation

File Photo of White House with South Lawn and Fountain

(Whitehouse – Via Teleconference  – Dec. 30, 2021) 5:41 P.M. EST MODERATOR: Thank you. Good evening, everyone. And thanks for joining us. A reminder that this call will be on background, attributed to a “senior administration official,” and the contents are going to be embargoed until the conclusion of the call. We will have an official readout of the call […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Joe Biden threatens Vladimir Putin with gas embargo over Ukraine” – The Times (UK)

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Don’t dare try another Crimea, he warns Russian president.” “… Biden has warned … Putin that the West will target Russian gas exports and deploy more troops to eastern Europe if [Putin] orders an invasion of Ukraine. … [T]he U.S. national security adviser[] said … this … likely … include[d] stopping … gas … through … Nord Stream 2 …. […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin and Biden Speak: What They Discussed” – Moscow Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The Russian and U.S. leaders talked about rising tensions for two hours, but the path forward for both sides, and Ukraine, remains unclear […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kremlin expecting Putin-Biden talks to be substantive, long” – Interfax

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

MOSCOW. Dec 6 (Interfax) – A virtual meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden is expected to take place after 6:00 p.m. on Tuesday and to continue for a long time, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said. “At around 6:00 p.m. We expect the videoconference to be quite long and substantive. The conference will […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin offers to start negotiations on a non-expansion of NATO to the east security deal” – bne Intellinews

NATO Meeting File Photo

“… Moscow has been calling for a new post-Cold War security deal with the West since 2008, when … Medvedev offer[ed] the EU a … deal during his first foreign trip. … [which was] was dismissed out of hand. Putin brought the issue up again during a … speech where he ordered Russian diplomats to get a new security deal […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin discussed bilateral relations, diplomatic crisis, regional conflicts on the phone with CIA’s Burns – Peskov” – Interfax

William Burns file photo, adapted from image at cia.gov

MOSCOW. Nov 8 (Interfax) – Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke over the phone with United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns during the latter’s recent visit to Moscow, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said. “That’s right, such a conversation did take place over the phone,” Peskov told journalists on Monday when asked whether Putin spoke with Burns […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Lenin would be baffled: Russia’s once-tame Communist Party is becoming an opposition force: The Kremlin and the party’s own leader are worried” – The Economist

Russian State Duma Building file photo

“… many Russian democrats, desperate to get Yeltsin’s successor [Putin] out of the Kremlin, find themselves voting for the Communists. … aware of the irony. … With nearly all forms of politics banned and [] Navalny behind bars, the Communist Party … [has benefited the most from Navalny’s] ‘smart voting’ strategy. … Had … votes been counted honestly in parliamentary […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Natural Gas Prices Fall on Putin Order for More Russian Exports” – Wall Street Journal

Gas Flame file photo

“The Russian president told the state energy giant to pump more fuel to Germany and Austria to ease a supply crunch.” “… European gas prices are more than five times as high as they were a year ago even after Thursday’s slide, hurting consumers and holding back economies’ post-pandemic recoveries. The continent’s stores of gas [reportedly] are 15% below the […]

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Notes on Valdai 2021: Putin Touts Russia’s ‘Healthy Conservatism’

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Angela Stent – Oct. 27, 2021) Angela Stent is senior adviser to the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies and professor emerita of government and foreign service at Georgetown University, and a member of the Russia Matters editorial board. This year’s session of the annual Valdai International Discussion Club was organized in hybrid fashion, […]

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Putin’s Dominance Risks Destabilization: Fiona Hill’s Insights On Russia, the U.S., And Their ‘Unfortunate Parallels’

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

(Article text ©2021 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Mike Eckel – Oct. 18, 2021 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/31517780.html) A native of the United Kingdom who later became a U.S. citizen, Hill, who has described herself as “a nonpartisan foreign-policy expert,” is a scholar and historian who has written several books on Russia, including […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Catherine Belton’s “Putin’s People” is Essential Reading: ‘How the KGB Took Back Russia and then Took on the West.'” – Moscow Times

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Emily Couch – Oct. 17, 2021) The path taken by Catherine Belton’s “Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and then Took on the West” is a well-trodden one. For those who have read Masha Gessen’s “The Man Without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin,” Ben Judah’s “Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin blames low wind power output for gas crisis” – bne Intellinews

Gas Facility file photo

Russia has been criticized for exacerbating the gas crisis by withholding some supply – whether to put pressure on the EU to allow Nord Stream 2’s launch, or simply to drive up prices […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe’s energy crisis highlights dangers of reliance on Russia” – Atlantic Council

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“Europe is currently in the grip of an unfolding energy crisis that is sparking questions over the role of … Putin’s Russia in exploiting rising demand, low supply, and geopolitical unpredictability. … Natural gas prices have soared by 600% …. [M]arket volatility is hitting key economic areas across Europe, from fertilizer plants to the food industry and health sector. The […]

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Russian Political Elite Seeks to Retain Post-Stalin Consensus while ‘Correcting Mistakes’ of Soviet Regime, Luzin Says

Kremlin and River

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Sept. 24, 2021) The Russian elite does not have an explicit ideology but it does have a shared set of beliefs that guide its actions, an ideology that has “grown out of political practice rather than from any philosophy,” Pavel Luzin says. But that does not make it any less influential. Indeed, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Crushes Last of Opposition Ahead of Parliament Elections” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“… Putin has sidelined the last of his independent political opponents, jailing some and driving others into exile, as his ruling party seeks to extend … control in parliamentary elections despite simmering discontent. … United Russia … recorded some of the lowest ratings in nearly a decade earlier this year, scorned by voters angry over stagnant living standards and unpopular […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Vladimir Putin is isolating after possible exposure to the coronavirus” – New York Times

Covid-19 Coronavirus file photo, adapted from image at cdc.gov

“… Putin … said he is isolating because several members of his inner circle tested positive …. that one of the people who tested positive was a vaccinated staff member with whom he had recently interacted ‘very closely in the course of the whole day.’ … Putin has said he was vaccinated with the two-dose regimen of Russia’s Sputnik V […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is Russia’s defence chief emerging as Putin’s possible successor? Putin is still pondering the idea of another term, but as he approaches 70, bets are being placed on Sergey Shoigu” – Al Jazeera

Sergei Shoigu file photo, adapted from image at defense.gov by Steven C. Welsh, www.stevencwelsh.info :: www.stevencwelsh.com

… [M]any wonder who will succeed [Putin], and when. … [T]he Kremlin scrupulously weeds out all charismatic critics. … [P]otential successors from the halls of power have been demoted to irrelevant sinecures. … Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu[] [is] Russia’s longest-serving cabinet member and its second-most popular politician …. [H]e hails from Tuva, an impoverished province of Turkic-speaking Buddhists that borders […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, Belarus Agree on Economic Integration Pacts; The agreements, which cover trade, labor, currencies, taxes and energy, will deepen Moscow’s sway over its neighbor” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“… Putin … [said] that in the end all 28 integration programs were approved. [Putin said that] [t]hey include the integration of currency systems, the principles of levying indirect taxes … the fight against terrorism … [and] the pricing of Russian energy resources, … that a document would be signed by Dec. 1, 2023, to create a single gas market […]

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Putin’s Perestroika, One Driven Like Gorbachev’s by a Desire to Revive a Stagnating System, Path to Its Destruction, Inozemtsev Says

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Sept. 8, 2021) Vladislav Inozemtsev, who has long argued that the Putin system is likely to remain stable for at least another decade, now says that the Kremlin is acting in ways that point to an attempt to fundamentally restructure the Russian political system before the 2024 presidential vote. And such a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Get them while they’re young: Vladimir Putin’s henchmen target Russia’s universities and students” – The Economist

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“There’s an election coming.” “… But going after politicians and the media, and arresting students and activists, is no longer sufficient. The Kremlin is now trying to get a grip over schools and universities in a more systematic way. In the past nine months some 20 universities and institutes across Russia have had their deans replaced. … Russian students and […]

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Who Might Russia Declare A ‘Foreign Agent’ Journalist? Pretty Much Anyone, Really.

Kremlin and River

… the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin accelerates its campaign against independent journalism […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Announces $7Bln Pre-Election Handouts” – Moscow Times

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

Putin has called for one-off cash payments to be awarded to Russia’s pensioners and military service personnel in a highly anticipated pre-election move […]

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Is Shoygu Preparing to Become Russian President?

Sergei Shoigu file photo, adapted from image at defense.gov by Steven C. Welsh, www.stevencwelsh.info :: www.stevencwelsh.com

For the third time in recent days, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu has spoken out about issues beyond those normally viewed as the province of an official in his position. … [I]s he positioning himself to become president, likely with the current Kremlin leader’s blessing? […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Alarmed Over ‘Unprecedented’ Natural Disasters in Russia” – Moscow Times

Forest Fire file photo

Putin … said the scale of natural disasters that have hit Russia this year is “absolutely unprecedented” as local officials ask for Moscow’s help to tackle fires and floods […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Ruling Party Wants a Big Win in Upcoming Elections; United Russia has seriously limited the opposition but is losing popularity itself” – Foreign Policy

Russia Regions Map

“… United Russia … is defending their super majority … but faces increasing challenges due to its own unpopularity and mounting grievances. … [with] a large majority .. key … to ensuring its own cohesion and shoring up legitimacy of the Putin government. …  [An] effort to secure the vote results from the government’s need for credibility in … a […]

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The Week In Russia: The Dangerous Summer

Forest Fire file photo

As September elections approach, COVID-19 takes a mounting toll and wildfires burn across huge swaths of the country …. The Kremlin crackdown on dissenters, civil society, and independent media continues […]

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Despite Putin’s Urging, Russia’s Major Companies Aren’t Willing to Move Out of Moscow

Men Sitting Around Long Oval Boardroom Table, File Photo of FIFA Officials Meeting with Vladmir Putin

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, July 1, 2021) In the course of his Direct Line television show, Vladimir Putin said he was against moving the capital of the Russian Federation from Moscow but does favor having Russian companies which operate there have their headquarters in Siberian cities and pay taxes there rather than as now in Moscow. […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Some Investors Sense Buying Opportunity in Russia-U.S. Détente” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Outdoor Electronic Sign with Russian Exchange Data

Russian market could benefit from geopolitical calm, but Black Sea skirmish shows Russia has a habit of delivering negative surprises […]

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Biden hasn’t Betrayed Russian Liberals or Ukrainian Patriots; He’s Defended U.S. National Interests, Inozemtsev Says

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, June 19, 2021) Since the Geneva summit, some Russian liberals and some Ukrainian patriots have insisted Joe Biden betrayed their causes, forgetting that the US president swore “to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States” and not in any case promising to defend democracy in Russia or Ukrainian independence, […]

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U.S.-Russia Summit Offers New Framework: Restarted Dialogue, With Biden as ‘Russia Hand’

File Photo of U.S. Embassy Moscow, with Russian Foreign Ministry Building in Distance

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Nikolas Gvosdev – June 18, 2021) Nikolas Gvosdev is a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College and a senior fellow for Eurasia at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Most media reaction to the meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva focused on the optics: analyses of handshakes, body language, smiles […]

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Survey: Experts Weigh In With Expectations for Biden-Putin Summit

Stylized Russian and U.S. Flags, 200, 1807-2007

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – June 15, 2021) Five of America’s top Russia experts consider prospects for the June 16 meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva. Thomas Graham, Nikolas Gvosdev, Paul Kolbe, Olga Oliker and Angela Stent share their thoughts on stabilizing the U.S.-Russian relationship, low-hanging fruit, concrete steps to take and what can go wrong. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden agrees to meet Zelenskiy, but after the Putin summit” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris in Berlin

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Biden has invited … Zelenskiy to meet at the White House in July …. Zelenskiy says he learned through the press – not … the State Department – that … Biden … decided to stop trying to block a Russian pipeline that Ukraine sees as a dire national security threat. … [Zelenskiy, in a news interview,] spoke of his […]

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