For the third time in recent days, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu has spoken out about issues beyond those normally viewed as the province of an official in his position. … [I]s he positioning himself to become president, likely with the current Kremlin leader’s blessing? […]
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“The future prospects of any strongman leader often boil down to two choices: guaranteed safe passage to civilian life with legal protection, or life-long rule. … Putin, … [soon] mark[ing] 21 years in charge[,] … has engineered a situation [with] a shot of achieving either. … [T]his week … the country’s parliament rubber-stamped a law granting immunity from investigation or […]
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“… Putin forced through a plebiscite to zero out … constitutional limits on his rule. … [H]e can run again, in 2024, for two more six-year terms, until 2036, when he will turn eighty-four. …. Putin could have … move[d] Russia onto a stable path of institutional pluralism. Russia’s would-be democrats … Gorbachev and … Yeltsin, started out … popular […]
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… independent research and polls show that to make sure the Kremlin could trumpet the longed-for support of 50 percent of the Russian electorate, Putin and his cronies still needed large-scale ballot manipulations during the day and astronomical fraud during the vote count at night […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Paul Saunders – July 8, 2020) Paul Saunders is a senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy at the Center for the National Interest. Considering Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stated preferences and Moscow’s reputation for “managing” Russia’s voting, it hardly seems surprising that the Central Election Commission (CEC) claimed an overwhelming level of public support for constitutional […]
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“Researchers who study Russia’s electoral statistics believe … the recent nationwide plebiscite on constitutional amendments is the most dishonest vote the country has seen since the year 2000. … [F]rom a statistical point of view, … official results in many precincts can’t be attributed to fair voting processes. … According to official data from Russia’s Central Election Commission, a little […]
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By asking Russians to vote yes or no on Putin’s proposals, the Kremlin made a serious mistake […]
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“Evidence of massive ballot stuffing emerged in a mathematician[‘s] … statistical study of … the referendum on constitutional changes that would allow … Putin to remain in office until 2036. As bne IntelliNews reported before the vote …. Russian statistician Sergey Shpilkin … made a name for himself … highlighting vote rigging in past elections in Russia … studying … […]
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“A proposal to extend his rule passes, buried in a huge package of feel-good measures.” “… [Following voter-luring with offers of prizes and pressures from employers, some of the week-long voting utilized cardboard boxes and other voting was online, creating opportunities to rig the vote.] … [N]ot a proper referendum[,] [i]t had no precedent or legal basis. … did not […]
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MOSCOW. July 2 (Interfax) – The results of the nationwide vote on changes to the Fundamental Law reflect a high level of public trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin, the head of the Foundation for Civil Society Development with close links to the Kremlin, Konstantin Kostin, said. “Many experts are talking about total support by Russian citizens for the constitutional […]
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“The outcome in Russia’s constitutional ‘referendum’ is preordained, but an elaborate spectacle of public affirmation is vital to the leader’s legitimacy.’ “Russia’s seven-day national plebiscite … to keep … Putin in power until at least 2036, delivered the expected verdict …. Less clear … was why … Putin even needed voters to approve … constitutional amendments that, already ratified by […]
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“… Putin is just a step away from completing his main political project of the year – constitutional changes that would allow him to extend his rule until 2036. … For the first time in Russia, polls were open for a week to help reduce crowds and to bolster turnout amid the coronavirus pandemic. Putin is all but guaranteed to […]
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“The result of [the] vote isn’t in much doubt, but the outcome could mean far-reaching changes for Russia as he lays plans to prolong his reign.” “Russians are casting … ballots in a [referendum] vote … expected to pave the way for … Putin … to remain … until 2036. … [T]he parliament and … highest court have already approved […]
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… The primary beneficiary is, of course, Vladimir Putin, who can now contemplate another two terms and 16 uninterrupted years in power. […]
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Russia’s Central Electoral Commision … says overall turnout was about 9 percent on the first day of a weeklong vote for constitutional amendments that could pave the way for an extension of … Putin’s rule by 12 years. … [J]ournalists and opposition figures already are complaining about irregularities […]
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“Russian electoral statistician Sergey Shpilkin says there are already clear signs of ballot stuffing even before the voting in Russia’s referendum on changes to the constitution begins.” “Russia started early voting in its controversial referendum on changes to the constitution on June 25 that will reset the presidential term counter for … Putin … and allow him to remain in […]
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“… If adopted, the main change will be to allow Putin to stay in power after the end of his second consecutive — and fourth total — mandate, possibly up to 2036, when he is going to be 84 years old. […]
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“The Russian president is leaving himself room for maneuver. It remains to be seen, however, how much longer Putin can afford to keep people guessing.” “There’s an acquired habit of reading between the lines of everything President Vladimir Putin writes or says. Given the subterfuge of Russian state power, it’s an understandable one. The Victory Day Parade, the plebiscite to […]
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“Vladimir Putin should brush off the cold war cobwebs in pursuit of a hard-headed look at national interests.” “… Putin is proposing … the option of another 15 years in office. He could … continu[e] to shake his fist at the west. Alternatively, he could brush away the cobwebs of the cold war and begin to recognise the challenge to […]
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“They’ve offered prizes ranging from gift certificates to cars and apartments. … put up billboards … enlisted celebrities to urge a ‘yes’ vote. … encouraged state-run businesses like hospitals and schools to pressure employees to register at the polls. Russian authorities seem to be pulling out all the stops to get people to vote on constitutional amendments that would enable […]
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… Putin unleashed a political storm in January with the plan to overhaul the Russian Constitution […]
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“[Putin] has not had a good pandemic. [b]ut … is staging a comeback, with a touch of foreign-policy grandstanding, a dash of military theater and a plebiscite on constitutional reforms that could allow him to stay in power until 2036. The vote will confirm changes already approved by parliament in March[] and … didn’t have to happen now. Even so, […]
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… Putin could seek another term in office if Russians vote next week in favor of constitutional amendments that would ‘zero out’ his previous four terms, he said in a new interview […]
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“Russia’s far eastern region of Kamchatka has kicked off early voting on the constitutional reform that would allow … Putin to stay in power until 2036, with election officials traveling to remote areas and bringing ballots to residents who don’t have access to polling stations. Early voting … has been officially allowed since June 10 – 20 days ahead of […]
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“… [C]iting … coronavirus, … around 350 [Russian polling station officials] across the country say taking part [in a nationwide vote on reforms that could extend … Putin’s rule until 2036] is too dangerous … [with] authorities … reporting thousands of new infections each day despite a drop … in … Moscow. The officials have started a petition … to […]
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“… Putin’s opponents agree a nationwide vote next month that could extend his rule is a sham, but are split over … [supporting] a ‘No’ vote or … a boycott. … [On] July 1 … Russians … vote to approve or reject constitutional reforms including … allow[ing] Putin to serve two more six-year terms … instead of stepping down in […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – June 5, 2020) Russia’s Communist Party has launched a campaign urging supporters to vote against a set of constitutional amendments that would allow President Vladimir Putin to stay in power for the next decade and a half. Russians are set to vote on July 1 to approve Putin’s changes to Russia’s basic law that would, […]
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“… Putin rescheduled a referendum … open[ing] a path for him to remain in power until 2036[, delayed because of Covid-19]. … [O]riginally planned for April 22[, the referendum] … will be held July 1 …. [with] [v]oting … spread out over a week …. With Russia slowly emerging from [a] two[-]month[] … nationwide lockdown … the Kremlin is rushing […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, May 21, 2020) Before our eyes and in a remarkably short time, Aleksandr Tsipko says, the coronavirus pandemic has destroyed the hitherto widely held belief among Russians that the fate of their country and the fate of Vladimir Putin were ineluctably intertwined and even one and the same thing. The senior Moscow […]
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… The report on Bloomberg noted that only 27 percent of respondents in the poll, published on April 27, named Putin when asked to name a politician they they most trust. […]
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“As infections grow, Russia finds a shortfall in oil revenue hurts its ability to offer the kind of emergency support provided in the West.” “… [Russia’s] slump … began … when coronavirus lockdowns in China and elsewhere pushed oil prices lower. … Putin’s hesitance in joining … big producers to curtail output compounded the problem, driving oil to its lowest […]
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“… the situation could evolve in a bleaker direction, eroding Putin’s authority and enticing elites to consider alternatives, such as blocking Putin’s bid for reelection in 2024. But, for the past twenty years, Putin has been a skillful and a lucky leader. That has kept him at the top of the system. This year will tell whether his skill or his luck – or both – have run out.”
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“A row over censorship has plunged Russia’s top business newspaper into a crisis that could either see it fall under the Kremlin’s control or torpedo a deal to sell it, leaving it on the verge of bankruptcy. Staff at Vedomosti are in open revolt against new acting editor Andrei Shmarov … they say he banned writing about taboo topics for […]
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“… Putin’s … oil price war with Saudi Arabia … was disastrously timed. … days before the coronavirus pandemic began forcing economies around the world into lockdown, cutting crude demand. Russia then succumbed to the virus itself. … [Putin] had to cancel a referendum to approve constitutional changes …. The IMF forecasts Russian [GDP] could contract by 5.5 per cent […]
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Russia entered the crisis with a stagnant economy, and its oil-price war with the Saudis isn’t helping. “… the pandemic could hardly have come at a worse time …. Russia entered the crisis in a weakened state. Its longest stagnation in modern history …. 12%[] were below the subsistence minimum …. Most of the impoverished were working. … Rosstat, reported […]
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(Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 17, Issue 54 – Paul Goble – April 21, 2020) The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has changed Russians more fundamentally than any past revolution. In particular, the government’s response and the changes in day-to-day life for the average Russian has destroyed traditional widespread faith in society that Russia’s authorities are omnipotent while […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, April 10, 2020) Because of the pandemic, the Kremlin has delayed its plans for a constitutional amendment referendum from April 22 to some as yet unspecified date in the future, a delay that has not calmed but rather intensified discussions about it, both political and technical, Yuliya Krivonosova says. The Moscow journalist […]
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“… While many countries have a clear ‘line of succession’ …. [f]or Russia, this line of succession is not clear beyond the first step, which is the prime minister assuming the duties of the president. But recent measures in response to COVID may provide some level of insight …. Most leaders in Russia are still out and about, making statements […]
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(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – William E. Pomeranz, Deputy Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute – March 30, 2020) In the end, it was all a big show. Putin unleashed constitutional reform in his January 15, 2020, state of the nation address with a hint of institutional change and a theoretical path forward to a post-Putin era. He formally […]
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Referendum originally planned for April is final hurdle to allowing Russia’s president to potentially stay in office until 2036 “In his first address to the nation since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic … Putin told citizens that an April referendum on changes to the country’s constitution would be postponed to help curb the spread of the illness. The national […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, March 14, 2010) Most residents of the Russian Federation are at present indifferent as far as the constitutional amendments are concerned either because they have been reduced from the status of citizens to mere populace or because no one has explained why these changes are needed or what they will mean, Ilnar […]
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(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – March 16, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/russian-scholars-legal-experts-sign-up-against-constitutional-coup-/30490881.html) Hundreds of scholars, journalists, and legal experts in Russia have warned in an open letter that the country faces a “deep constitutional crisis and an illegal, unconstitutional coup” as the Constitutional Court prepares to rule on a raft […]
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(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Henry Hale – March 11, 2020) Henry E. Hale is Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Co-director of PONARS Eurasia at George Washington University. Speaking to the lower house of parliament on March 10, Vladimir Putin seemingly affirmed what many have suspected all along: that he intends to stay in power well beyond […]
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“… Putin … chose the crudest … perhaps simplest[] method – changing the constitution and giving himself an option to stay …. in the footsteps of several post-Soviet central Asian despots …. Putin’s other amendments curb the … parliament and courts … position[ing] him as ‘not only the head of the state but the head of the executive branch … […]
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“… Constitutional amendments already in the works will now include a provision allowing [Putin] to serve two more terms. That could extend his time in office to 2036, when he will be 83. … [Putin] could rule Russia for 36 years, more than a decade longer than Joseph Stalin. … a recipe for stagnation, akin to the corrosive paralysis … […]
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In a carefully scripted appearance, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia agreed he should be allowed to seek two more terms, if the Constitutional Court approves “It looked as though … Putin had been gearing up … obscure constitutional changes as a surreptitious way to remain Russia’s leader after presidential term limits forced him to step down in 2024. But […]
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(Institute of Modern Russia – imrussia.org – Olga Khvostunova – February 27, 2020) Olga Khvostunova is IMR’s political analyst and researcher. In an interview with IMR, political scientist Vladimir Gelman, professor of the European University in St. Petersburg and the University of Helsinki, discusses the origins of Russia’s bad governance, the goals of Vladimir Putin’s recent political initiatives, and the […]
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(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Matthew Luxmoore – Moscow, Jan. 28, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/why-so-few-protests-against-putin-s-constitutional-shake-up-/30402490.html) When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a raft of constitutional changes in his state-of-the-nation speech on January 15, immediately fueling mounting suspicion that he was seeking a way to retain power after his current […]
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“… The timing and the nature of the constitutional amendments make it clear that … Putin perceives his regime as in crisis and is doubtful about the continued viability of a system of personal rule when he is no longer around. He knows perfectly well that what his apologists trumpet as political stability is in reality … stagnation … that […]
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Here are five takeaways from the government personnel changes put in place on January 21, five days after parliament rubber-stamped the appointment of Mikhail Mishustin to replace Medvedev as prime minister. …
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