Facing Oil Price Plunge, Russia Considers Fire Sale of State Companies

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – January 22, 2016) Russian officials are touting a new wave of privatization to fill the hole in the government’s finances caused by the slumping oil price. With the cost of crude falling toward $30 per barrel early in the year, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that 1 trillion rubles ($12.5 billion) could […]

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USSR collapsed because of oil prices heralding Russia’s future?

Oil Well file photo

(Pravda.ru – January 19, 2016) Pravda.Ru editor-in-chief Inna Novikova sat down with historian Alexander Fursov to speak about Russia’s foreign and domestic policy. “In connection with the collapse of the world prices on oil, many analysts say that the times that we are living now are very similar to the times of the 90s when the Soviet Union broke up.” […]

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Gref

Oil Wells File Photo

(Eric Kraus – Facebook – January 16, 2016) I often wonder whether Gref’s slightly hysterical tone is a good thing – as it is a goad to action against complacency – or it is a net-net negative because it simply adds to the ambient pessimism. Listening to his talk at the Gaidar Conference – there is one obvious problem – […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s pensioners squeezed as recession bites” – Financial Times

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The Financial Times covers the impact of Russia’s economic downturn on older Russians. Several Russian regions have over the past year been forced to suspend benefit payouts or stop the inflation indexing of public sector wages. … The dramatic slide in crude prices has slashed revenues from the export of oil and gas which account for more than half Russia’s […]

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Russian Ministry Predicts More Recession, Lower Incomes and Less Employment

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – January 15, 2016) New falls in the oil price mean that Russia’s economy will likely shrink again in 2016, as incomes continue to fall and unemployment rises, according to a draft outlook prepared by the Economic Development Ministry. Officials had hoped for an end to recession this year, but a near 20 percent decrease in […]

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Russian Finance Minister: Oil prices could continue to slide

Oil Wells File Photo

(Interfax – January 13, 2016) Oil prices are likely to go on sliding in the near future, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. “Today there’s a very tight balance on the oil market, we’re seeing that nobody is cutting oil production. We’re likely in the short term to see further decline in prices for this commodity,” he said. “Indicators for […]

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Russian Ruble Crashes to 77 Per Dollar Amid Oil Price Slump

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – January 13, 2016) The Russian ruble fell to 77 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday for the first time since December 2014 as global prices for oil continue to slide, the RIA Novosti news agency reported. As of Tuesday morning, the Russian currency had slipped to 77.01 against the U.S. dollar and 83.80 against the […]

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Russian Oil Prices Drop 50% in 2015

Offshore Oil Rig file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – January 11, 2016) The average price of Russian oil dropped almost 50 percent last year, the Interfax news agency reported Monday, citing Finance Ministry analyst Alexander Sakovich. In 2014, the average price of Russia’s key export, Urals crude oil, stood at $97.6 per barrel, while last year it price fell by 47.5 percent to $51.23, […]

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Russia Seeks To Drive Wedge Into Central Asia

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Bruce Pannier – January 5, 2016) Russia appears to be practicing a bit of “divide-and-conquer” politics in Central Asia, and state-owned Gazprom is spearheading the campaign. On January 4, Russia’s main news agencies quoted a “source” within Gazprom Export, the Gazprom wing charged with handling gas imports from other countries, saying Russia would not be importing any […]

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Russian Economy Killers: Oil and Sanctions

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(Voice of America – Bernard Shusman – January 6, 2016) Russian President Vladimir Putin gets a bad report card, even a failing grade, for his handling of the economic crisis in his country, according to 27 percent of analysts who participated in a major survey conducted by Bloomberg Business. These are hard times in Russia, with the collapse in oil […]

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Eight Shades of Crisis – Russia’s Year of Economic Nightmares

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – December 26, 2015) [Charts here themoscowtimes.com/business/article/8-shades-of-crisis—russias-year-of-economic-nightmares/553703.html] Imagine Russia as a combustion engine. Oil and gas pumped from its vast territories wash through the economy as taxes, government spending and investment. Foreign currency from oil and gas sales is used to fund imported equipment and products on shop shelves. Cash from the energy […]

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Another False Start for Russia as Oil Spells Longer Recession

Oil Wells File Photo

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – December 21, 2015) A renewed sell-off in oil means the Russian economy will be testing new lows for much of next year. With crude trading near the lowest since mid-2004, banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. say a second year of recession is all but inevitable. JPMorgan reversed its call for 0.5 percent […]

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Sino-Russian energy relations reversed: a new little brother

Asia Map

Don’t be fooled. Russia’s growing ties to China may not be what they seem. (opendemocracy.net – Morena Skalamera – December 22, 2015) Morena Skalamera is a post-doctoral fellow at the Belfer Center, Harvard University, where she researches the geopolitics of energy and European-Russian energy co-operation. In the year since Russia and China signed a landmark $400bn natural gas pact in […]

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Back to the Uncertain Future for Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Mikhail Khodorkovsky file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Dmitry Elovsky, Mikhail Fishman – December 17, 2015) The mob-style execution of Vladimir Petukhov, mayor of the Siberian oil capital Nefteyugansk, one summer morning in 1998 was not an unusual occurrence for the “wild 90s” era of Russian business. But it has returned to the spotlight as part of the reanimated prosecution of former Yukos […]

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Is Russia’s Cheap Oil Nightmare Coming True?

Offshore Oil Rig file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – December 17, 2015) [Chart here themoscowtimes.com/business/article/is-russias-cheap-oil-nightmare-coming-true/553010.html] Picture the scene. It is 2016, oil costs on average $35 per barrel, and Russia’s recession rolls into its second year. The economy shrinks by 2-3 percent. Unemployment creeps up, and wages continue to fall, depressing consumer spending. The ruble devalues, driving up inflation. To keep […]

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Russian Finance Minister Siluanov expects oil price to go under $30 per bar

Anton Siluanov file photo

(Interfax – December 12, 2015) Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov anticipates that price for oil in some periods of time in 2016 could drop to $30 per barrel. “We had hardly passed the budget before we saw that the macroeconomic situation was changing. It’s changing not for the better. We based our budget on the presumption that the price would […]

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NEWSWATCH CNBC: “Ex-Russia Fin Min [Kudrin]: We need ‘painful’ structural reforms”

Alexei Kudrin file photo

CNBC covers remarks by former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, citing the ongoing impact of oil prices while also noting a need for Russian economic reforms, stymied by political considerations. … Kudrin acknowledged the ongoing impact of … commodities … ‘The drop in GDP (gross domestic product) this year mainly has to do with the drop in oil prices – […]

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Ruble Sinks to New Lows As Oil Prices Plummet

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – December 8, 2015) The Russian ruble has continued its slide to dramatic lows, falling to 69 against the U.S. dollar on Monday for the first time since September, according to news reports. The euro, too, reached a two-month high, climbing to 75 rubles on Monday evening, with Russian analysts linking the ruble’s downward spiral to […]

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Interfax: Truthfulness of evidence of oil smuggled to Turkey from terrorists-controlled areas raises no doubt – senator Ozerov

Federation Council file photo

MOSCOW. Dec 5 (Interfax) – Russia has no doubt about the credibility of the evidence it showed of oil supplies to Turkey from ISIL-controlled areas, said Viktor Ozerov, head of the Federation Council’s Defense and Security Committee. “These are objective documents. With the system of capabilities that the U.S. and other NATO states have, joking and serving – to put […]

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NEWSWATCH Reuters: “Khodorkovsky says Putin is leading Russia towards stagnation, collapse”

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

Reuters covers remarks by former Russian oil tycoon, former prison inmate, political activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky. President Vladimir Putin will survive Western sanctions and lower oil prices but the Kremlin chief has brought such stagnation that Russia could eventually collapse, former tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky said …. Russia’s richest man, who was arrested in 2003 after falling foul of Putin and released […]

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Putin Doesn’t Mind Oil’s Fall

Oil Wells File Photo

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – November 26, 2015) [Charts here bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-26/putin-doesn-t-mind-oil-s-fall] Russia’s economic decline this year is often attributed to low oil prices. Yet Russia has performed considerably worse than most of its oil-exporting peers, so there must be another reason. Marek Dabrowski, co-founder of the Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw and a professor at […]

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The $30 Oil Cliff Threatening Russia’s Economy

Offshore Oil Rig file photo

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Andre Tartar and Olga Tanas – November 30, 2015) [Chart here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-29/the-30-oil-cliff-that-economists-see-threatening-russia-in-2016] For Russia, $30 is the number to watch. Crude prices at that level will push the economy to depths that would threaten the nation’s financial system, according to 63 percent of respondents in a Bloomberg survey. Lower prices for the fuel are next year’s […]

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Downing of Russian Plane has Serious Consequences for Putin at Home, in Central Asia, and in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, November 25, 2015) The shooting down of a Russian military plane by Turkish forces after Kremlin ignored repeated warnings from Ankara not to violate Turkey’s airspace not only increases the risks of a clash between Russia and the West but has serious consequences for Putin at home, in Central Asia and the […]

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How the Unshackled Ruble Has Changed Russia’s Economy Forever; The weaker currency has hit consumers hard but helped oil producers

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova, Andre Tartar – November 9, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-10/how-the-unshackled-ruble-has-changed-russia-s-economy-forever] Today marks the one-year anniversary of the freeing of the ruble for the first time in its post-Soviet history. In five charts, we show how the central bank’s decision to stop depleting international reserves to prop up the currency has upended every facet of the […]

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Is the Russian economy about to be hit by a new drop in oil prices?

Offshore Oil Rig file photo

Low prices for hydrocarbons have led to the record-breaking filling of storage facilities in Europe and the United States, according to data published by Goldman Sachs. Although the report predicts a sharp decline in demand for oil, posing a threat to the Russian economy, Russian experts do not expect panic in the oil market. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru […]

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Russia Oil Production Poised for Record as Industry Defies Slump

Oil Well file photo

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Stephen Bierman, Julian Lee – October 29, 2015) Russian oil output is poised to break a post-Soviet record for the fourth time this year as the nation’s producers once again prove themselves resilient to a slump in crude prices. Production of crude and a light oil called condensate is on track to reach 10.77 million barrels […]

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Is Russia The King Of Arctic Oil By Default?

Arctic Map

(Oilprice.com – Colin Chilcoat – October 22, 2015) To be king implies preeminence, or lasting rule. In the Arctic, such oil and gas supremacy is still little more than a dream. That dream remains alive in Russia however, and the nation – through an unmatched stubbornness and a decidedly timid field of competitors – is making a strong bid for […]

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Ex-Russian Officials: Stagnation, Declining Living Standards Loom For Russians

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(RFE/RL – WASHINGTON, October 26, 2015) Russia’s economy will stagnate in coming years due to sanctions, low oil prices, and deeper systemic problems, former Russian officials say, but it’s unclear whether this torpor will strengthen political opposition to President Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister and current opposition politician, told an October 26 panel discussion that Russia […]

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$50 Oil for 15 Years Isn’t What Scares Bank of Russia Governor

Elvira Nabiullina file photo

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Evgenia Pismennaya, Anna Andrianova, Ryan Chilcote – October 14, 2015) Fifteen years of oil at $50 a barrel isn’t the worst nightmare for Russian central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina. “What worries me more is the pace of reforms in the economy that could stimulate private investment,” Nabiullina, 51, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Tuesday. […]

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Medvedev: Russia must cut dependence on oil revenues

Oil Wells File Photo

Speaking at a forum in Sochi, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has revealed that oil and gas revenues have provided for less than half of the federal Russian budget for the first time, and said the country must focus on reducing its dependence on oil through reforms, stimulating domestic manufacturing and cutting spending. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – […]

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Oil money, conflict and the age of diminished expectations in Russia

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Yuval Weber of Moscow’s Higher School of Economics – September 30, 2015) At the mid-June opening of Russia’s “military Disneyland” – officially titled “Patriot Park” – President Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to announce that 40 new intercontinental missiles would be added to Russia’s nuclear forces and that the theme park itself would be […]

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Russia admits lack of technologies for offshore oil production

Offshore Oil Rig file photo

The Russian government has announced that it is seeking to source equipment for offshore oil production from new countries due to the impact of sanctions by the European Union and the United States. However, as experts note, the development of Arctic fields is being hindered by low oil prices. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – […]

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Energy Sector Accounts for 98% of Russian Corporate Profits

Gas Flame file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – September 25, 2015) Oil and gas companies earned 98 percent of all profits made by large Russian firms last year, a new ranking showed, making a mockery of attempts to wean Russia off its reliance on energy exports. A list by the RBC news agency of the biggest 500 Russian companies – […]

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Oilprice.com: How Russia’s Oil Companies Are Defying Sanctions and Low Oil Prices

Oil Wells File Photo

(Oilprice.com – Colin Chilcoat – September 24, 2015) Winning and losing is largely a matter of perspective, and that’s no different in today’s low oil price environment. Still, certain data and metrics can provide a more incorruptible viewpoint on the carnage, or lack thereof. In that regard-and to the surprise of many-count Russia’s oil majors among the current winners. Ranked […]

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Russian Imports Plunge 39 Percent as Recession Takes Hold

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – September 23, 2015) The value of goods imported by Russia from outside the former Soviet Union tumbled 39 percent in the first eight months of this year compared to the same period in 2014, as a deep recession cut into the country’s buying power. According to preliminary data from the Federal Customs […]

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Russian Options Narrow as Putin Looks to Exporters’ Windfall

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas, Andrey Biryukov – September 22, 2015) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s promises made as recently as last year may be the latest casualty of the collapse in oil prices. Putin instructed the government on Tuesday to study the possibility of steering into the budget some of the gains by exporters from ruble devaluation, without losing […]

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Russian Consumer Rot Worsens as Wages Decline More Than Forecast

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – September 17, 2015) A slump in Russian consumption showed no letup last month while a drop in investment stretched into the longest in two decades, highlighting the toll on the economy from lower oil prices and the latest wave of ruble depreciation. Real wages declined 9.8 percent from a year earlier after a […]

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Russian economy ministry more optimistic than CBR about oil prices

Alexei Ulyukayev file photo

SOCHI. Sept 17 (Interfax) – Russia’s Economic Development Ministry is somewhat more optimistic about the outlook for the oil market than the Central Bank in its baseline scenario, which assumes an oil price of $50 per barrel in the next three years. “Our hypothesis is that it might be a little higher, but this is absolutely not crucial,” Economic Development […]

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Central Bank in baseline scenario expecting oil price at around $50 per barrel in next 3 years

Oil Wells File Photo

MOSCOW. Sept 11 (Interfax) – The Central Bank of Russia updated the forecast that was made earlier on the average annual price for oil and now is considering it being close to $50 a barrel in the next three years as the baseline scenario. “Going forward, the economic situation will depend on the global energy prices and the economy’s ability […]

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RBTH: Russia waits on U.N. response over claim to extend Arctic borders

Arctic Map

After 14 years, Moscow is renewing an effort to claim a vast territory on the outer margin of the continental shelf abutting Russia’s land mass in the Arctic. What are the economic benefits of acquiring the legal rights to this underwater area and is Russia’s claim likely to be approved? (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH […]

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Sberbank forecasts Russian GDP to contract 0.5% in 2016 – Gref

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MOSCOW. Sept 3 (Interfax) – Sberbank of Russia (MOEX: SBER) expects Russian GDP to contract 0.5% in 2016, bank President and CEO German Gref said on Rossiya 24 television. “Our most realistic forecast assumes economic growth will be negative 0.5%. We do not for now see any sources of growth that would produce serious recovery next year,” Gref said. The […]

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Foreign investors may get access to major deposits in Russia

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If a foreign company in Russia repeats the recent success of Italian energy company in Egypt and discovers a strategic deposit on Russian territory, it will be able to develop that deposit. Experts expect the relevant amendments to the Russian legislation to attract investment in exploration. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Anna Kuchma, RBTH – September 1, 2015) […]

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A Winter Of Discontent For Russia

Snowy Night on Red Square with Old St. Basil's Lit Up

(Oilprice.com – Colin Chilcoat – August 25, 2015) Winters are the stuff of legend in Russia and – despite a fair bit of warming – winter 2015/16 is shaping up to be one of the harshest, and most formative, in recent memory. After a brief period of respite – and muted acceptance of the “new normal” – to start the […]

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