JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Military Buildup Near Ukraine Is an Open Secret” – WSJ

Artist's Depiction of Spy Satellite in Orbit, With Stylized Depictions of Lines of Site and Data Points, adapted from image at iarpa.gov

Satellite images, social media posts and flight-tracking data allow private analysts to track details governments once classified […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2022” – Moscow Times

Satellite

The Moscow Times asked 10 commentators for their predictions for the coming year […]

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Amid Rumblings About A Russian Invasion, ‘No Hysteria’ In Ukraine

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Amidst provocative comments from Putin targeting Kyiv, and Kremlin demands that Ukraine be kept out of NATO forever, U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence agencies have warned that Russia has been preparing for a possible military offensive […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “No time for war: Russians see no chance of conflict” – BBC

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

The build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border has led to fears of an invasion and all-out war. For most Russians there is little interest […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “More than 10,000 Russian troops returning to bases after drills near Ukraine – Interfax” – Reuters

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Citing the Russian military, Russian news agency Interfax states that more than 10,000 Russian troops have been returning to permanent bases after month-long drills near Ukraine […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO open to dialogue with Russia on European security demands” – Financial Times

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Moscow’s ‘red lines’ viewed as not credible, but pressure mounts to find diplomatic solution.” “… Western officials have in private rejected almost all of the demands as implausible, not credible and in contradiction to post-cold war treaties guaranteeing sovereign states’ rights to choose their defence policies. But they admit that closing the door on Moscow’s initial diplomatic offer could make […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Accuses NATO of Ignoring De-Escalation Proposals” – Moscow Times

Alexander Grushko file photo, adapted from image at eucom.mil

In addition to closing Ukraine’s door to NATO membership, the Russian president demands that the Western military alliance halt weapons deployment on its western border […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Sends Security Proposals to U.S. as Ukraine Tensions Soar” – Moscow Times

NATO Meeting File Photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Dec. 15, 2021) President Vladimir Putin said Russia has sent the United States its proposals on mutual security guarantees amid high tensions between the countries over Ukraine, Interfax reported Wednesday. Russia’s Foreign Ministry passed the offer to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried, who is in Moscow after visiting Kiev amid fears of Russia […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Joe Biden threatens Vladimir Putin with gas embargo over Ukraine” – The Times (UK)

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Don’t dare try another Crimea, he warns Russian president.” “… Biden has warned … Putin that the West will target Russian gas exports and deploy more troops to eastern Europe if [Putin] orders an invasion of Ukraine. … [T]he U.S. national security adviser[] said … this … likely … include[d] stopping … gas … through … Nord Stream 2 …. […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin and Biden Speak: What They Discussed” – Moscow Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The Russian and U.S. leaders talked about rising tensions for two hours, but the path forward for both sides, and Ukraine, remains unclear […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Putin Won’t Invade Ukraine” – Forbes/ Loren Thompson

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… Risk aversion. … Putin[‘s] operating style more closely resembles the behavior of … the cunning peasant who plays a weak hand well. … You break it, you own it. An invasion … would require Russia to occupy … a restive developing nation … recovering from … war. … [a costly] burden … persist[ing] indefinitely …. Galvanizing NATO. [pushing Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “CIA Chief Says Intelligence Agencies Haven’t Concluded Russia Will Invade Ukraine” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Russian President Putin is assembling a potent military force and may see a chance to act this winter, William Burns says […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. intelligence-sharing convinces allies of Russian threat to Ukraine” – Financial Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Skeptical capitals including Berlin persuaded of the need to draw up threat of robust sanctions […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kremlin expecting Putin-Biden talks to be substantive, long” – Interfax

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

MOSCOW. Dec 6 (Interfax) – A virtual meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden is expected to take place after 6:00 p.m. on Tuesday and to continue for a long time, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said. “At around 6:00 p.m. We expect the videoconference to be quite long and substantive. The conference will […]

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China’s Arctic Ambitions Could Make or Break U.S.-Russian Relations in the Region

File Photo of Arctic Fox Running Across Snow, adapted from image at USGS.gov, with photo credit to Mike Lockart and USGS

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Ingrid Burke Friedman – Dec. 1, 2021) Ingrid Burke Friedman is a fellow at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and Features Editor at JURIST Legal News & Commentary. She previously served as a consular officer with the U.S. State Department. While U.S.-Russian relations continue to deteriorate in many spheres, the Arctic […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Blinken and Lavrov talks break up after 30 minutes” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

Blinken and Lavrov Posing Before U.S. and Russian Flags, adapted from image at ru.usembassy.gov

“U.S. Secretary of State Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Stockholm as tensions continue to escalate, but spent only 30 minutes in discussions, suggesting little progress was made in walking back the crisis.” “… Blinken appealed to … Lavrov to choose diplomacy over coercion … Amongst the most painful sanctions that Washington has so far held in reserve […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s soldiers wait in the trenches for Moscow’s next move” – The Times (UK)

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… The Biden administration has said Russian troops are massing near the Ukrainian border and is reported to be considering the dispatch of new weaponry as well as advisers to Kiev. Ukraine is already using U.S. anti-tank missiles and Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. The supply of more such advanced weaponry would dramatically increase Russian losses in the event of a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Life under siege: residents fear new surge of war in rebel-held east Ukraine” – Reuters

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… On the edge of Horlivka, … controlled by … separatists since 2014, … neighbors are trapped between the two warring sides in a conflict that the Ukrainian government says has killed more than 14,000 people. Russia has accused Ukraine of preparing to try to recapture the breakaway eastern regions by force …. Ukraine fears Russia might use that as […]

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What’s Behind The Russia-Ukraine War Fears — And What Might Actually Happen?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The buildup of forces is evident in western Russia and also in Crimea, according to satellite images. It’s impossible to ascertain exactly what Russia’s intentions are […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Ukraine gambit seen as part of play for new Biden summit” – Reuters

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“… U.S., NATO and Ukrainian officials have raised the alarm in recent weeks over what they say are unusual Russian troop movements closer to Ukraine, suggesting that Moscow may be poised to launch a new attack on its neighbour, accusations Russia has rejected as fear-mongering. … Putin already got the attention of Biden’s White House once this year by massing […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and Ukraine both step up military alert with combat drills” – Reuters

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Russia staged military drills in the Black Sea, south of Ukraine, … and said it needed to sharpen the combat-readiness of its conventional and nuclear forces because of heightened NATO activity near its borders. Ukraine, which with its ally the United States has said it believes Russia may be preparing an invasion, staged exercises of its own near the border […]

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Why There Won’t Be a People’s Republic of Left-Bank Ukraine Just Yet

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – Nov. 23, 2021) Simon Saradzhyan is the founding director of the Russia Matters Project. Evidence of recently resumed movements of Russian troops in the vicinity of Russia’s border with Ukraine (as well as farther afield) have reignited the debate about Kremlin intentions to order another military intervention on its neighbor’s territory, with […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, China sign roadmap for closer military cooperation” – AP

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Russia’s defense chief [Sergei Shoigu] … signed a roadmap for closer military ties with China …. Russia has sought to expand ties with China as … relations with the U.S. and its allies sank to post-Cold War lows over … [Russia’s] annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea[], accusations of Russian hacking attacks, interference in elections and other disputes. … Russia and China […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s SVR: Allegations regarding concentration of forces in Russia for invading Ukraine ‘absolutely false'” – Interfax

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Nov 22 (Interfax) – The allegations that Russia has concentrated substantial forces to launch a military invasion of Ukraine are “absolutely false,” the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said on Monday. “The press office of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service states that Washington-based officials have lately been actively scaring the international community with Russia’s alleged preparations for ‘aggression’ against […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kremlin Slams U.S. ‘Hysteria’ Over Ukraine Conflict” – Moscow Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Peskov’s comments come after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken … declined to say whether U.S. intelligence believed … Putin was aiming to seize land from Ukraine […]

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Kremlin Lashes Out At West, Defends Troop Movements, As It Boosts Role In Belarus-EU Border Crisis

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

The Kremlin has vowed to safeguard its borders in the face of actions by countries it accused of trying to “contain” Russia and sought to walk back a Belarusian threat of a cutoff of Russian natural gas to Western markets […]

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The Collapse of the Afghan Government Provides a Challenge for China and Russia, Not a Windfall

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Elizabeth Wishnick – Nov. 1, 2021) Elizabeth Wishnick is Professor of Political Science at Montclair State University. The collapse of the Afghan government and takeover by the Taliban is not a net win for China and Russia, nor will these developments automatically cement their partnership. Today, Chinese and Russian officials see the swift collapse of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin: Russia must build up defenses in view of NATO moves” – AP/ Vladimir Isachenkov

File Photo of U.S. Navy warships in Black Sea exercise, adapted from image at defense.gov with photo credit to MC1 Justin Stumberg

“… Russia has bristled at … U.S. and other NATO ships … [T]ensions between Moscow and the West have sunk to post-Cold War lows after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, … [the] insurgency in eastern Ukraine and other irritants. … Russia suspended its [NATO] mission … and ordered the closure of [NATO’s] office in Moscow after NATO … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, U.S. Release Latest Nuclear Weapons Counts as Moscow-NATO Ties Collapse” – Newsweek

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… Russia counted 527 deployed … ICBMs[] … SLBMs[] and heavy bombers, 1,458 warheads on deployed ICBMs … SLBMs and … heavy bombers as well as 742 deployed and non-deployed launchers of ICBMs, deployed and non-deployed launchers of SLBMs and deployed and non-deployed heavy bombers. … with U.S. figures at 665 deployed ICBMs … SLBMs and heavy bombers; 1,389 warheads […]

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Iran Cements Alliance With China, Russia In Clear Message To Washington

Iran Map and Flag

The seismic, multi-generational Iran-China deal is set for full roll-out. Full membership of the economic, military and political, SCO alliance will lead to major strategic investments in Iran’s up-and-downstream sectors […]

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Russia’s Foreign Military Basing Strategy

File Photo of Deck of Russian Aircraft Carrier Admiral Kuznetsov

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – DMITRY GORENBURG, Senior Research Scientist, CNA – Sept. 20, 2021) In December 2020, news broke that Russia had signed an agreement with Sudan to build a naval base on the Red Sea. Given the refurbishment of its existing base in Syria and rumors of other potential bases abroad being negotiated, on the surface, Russia appears […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, Belarus Agree on Economic Integration Pacts; The agreements, which cover trade, labor, currencies, taxes and energy, will deepen Moscow’s sway over its neighbor” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“… Putin … [said] that in the end all 28 integration programs were approved. [Putin said that] [t]hey include the integration of currency systems, the principles of levying indirect taxes … the fight against terrorism … [and] the pricing of Russian energy resources, … that a document would be signed by Dec. 1, 2023, to create a single gas market […]

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Why the U.S. Should Rethink Its Russia-centric Ukraine Policy

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Nicolai N. Petro – Sept. 9, 2021) Nicolai N. Petro is a professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island, specializing in Ukraine and Russia. His latest book, “Ukraine in Crisis,” was published by Routledge in 2017. Ahead of this month’s visit to Washington, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy gave a sense of his […]

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Russia Says Ukraine Organized Gas Pipeline Attack In Crimea

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Sept. 7, 2021) Russia accused on Tuesday Ukraine’s military intelligence of having organized an attack on a natural gas pipeline in Crimea at the end of last month, in another escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kyiv. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine back in 2014, straining the bilateral relations between one of Europe’s key natural […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Announces $7Bln Pre-Election Handouts” – Moscow Times

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

Putin has called for one-off cash payments to be awarded to Russia’s pensioners and military service personnel in a highly anticipated pre-election move […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia supports withdrawal of foreign fighters from Libya” – AP

File Photo of Ancient Roman Arch in Libya Framing Minaret and Palm Trees, adapted from image at cia.gov

“… Lavrov said after the talks … with Najla Mangoush that the Libyan leadership ‘is forming a consultative mechanism … to formulate the concrete parameters’ under which … foreign forces will leave. Russia was among … foreign powers backing … warring sides in Libya’s conflict … [S]ome officials and media … alleg[ed] … Russian private military contractors took part in […]

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Is Shoygu Preparing to Become Russian President?

Sergei Shoigu file photo, adapted from image at defense.gov by Steven C. Welsh, www.stevencwelsh.info :: www.stevencwelsh.com

For the third time in recent days, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu has spoken out about issues beyond those normally viewed as the province of an official in his position. … [I]s he positioning himself to become president, likely with the current Kremlin leader’s blessing? […]

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RUSSIALINK: “As Chaos Engulfs Kabul, Russia Says It’s Ready to Work With the Taliban” – Moscow Times

Afghanistan houses aerial view, adapted from image at state.gov

Moscow has a history of pragmatism toward the Islamist militia and appears well placed for a transition in Afghanistan. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Felix Light, Pjotr Sauer – Aug. 16, 2021) In the day since a Taliban offensive swept away the U.S.-backed Afghan government, Russian officials are taking satisfaction from their principle global adversary’s humiliation as they prepare to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality” – RAND

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… six key elements of Russia’s stated grand strategy … [given] closer examination [included]: the linkage between internal and external threats, the nature of Russia’s role in its immediate neighborhood, concepts about the future of warfare, expeditionary requirements for Russia’s military, Moscow’s objectives vis-à-vis the West, and Russia’s declared prioritization of engagement with non-Western powers. …” Embedded version follows below, […]

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