Ukraine crisis: Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

De-escalation measures have begun in eastern Ukraine as the sides start to withdraw light weaponry from the frontlines – a move expected to be accompanied by political steps in accordance with the Minsk peace agreements signed in February. But are the parties to the conflict ready for this? (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexey Timofeychev, RBTH – October […]

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RBTH: Further progress in Ukraine as Donbass agrees to postpone elections

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The governments of the self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine have agreed to postpose their local elections, thus fulfilling the wishes expressed by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France Normandy at talks in Paris on Oct. 2. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexey Timofeychev, RBTH – October 8, 2015) The unrecognized Donetsk and Lugansk “people’s republics” (DNR […]

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Non-Battle Casualties Make Up Third of Ukraine Military Deaths

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 8, 2015) Nearly a third of Ukraine’s military losses over the past two years were non-battle casualties, according to the country’s Defense Ministry figures cited by news reports. In total, 2,027 servicemen deaths have been recorded in 2014-2015 so far, according to the Defense Ministry report released Wednesday. Among them, 597 were non-battle casualties, […]

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RBTH: Is Moscow planning ground operations in Syria?

Syria Map

The Kremlin has declined to comment on a CNN report on the Russian Federation’s possible preparations for a ground operation in Syria. However, Russian observers interviewed by RBTH assert that Moscow will not want to get involved too deeply in the conflict and will limit itself to air strikes. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Nikolay Surkov, RBTH – […]

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Russian incursion into Turkish airspace “embarrassing mistake” – Kremlin

Syria Map

(Interfax – Moscow, October 7, 2015) The Kremlin considers the violation of Turkish airspace by Russian aircraft an embarrassing complication and confirms readiness to hold consultations between the military. “I would like to recall yesterday’s statement of the Russian Defence Ministry where the readiness to immediately begin consultations with the military, including the Turkish military, was voiced to clear up […]

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Antony Penaud: How the Economist changed its map of the Syrian conflict to make it look like Russia is bombing moderate rebels rather than al-Nusra

Syria Map

Subject: How the Economist changed its map of the Syrian conflict to make it look like Russia is bombing moderate rebels rather than al-Nusra Date: Thu, 8 Oct 2015 From: Antony Penaud <antonypenaud@yahoo.fr> Antony Penaud completed his DPhil at the University of Oxford in 2000. His essays on Russia and Ukraine are on www/scribd.com/antonykharms. He is French and lives in […]

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Interfax: Over 70% of Russians back Russia’s air campaign against ISIL in Syria – poll

Syria Map

MOSCOW. Oct 8 (Interfax) – Seventy-two percent of Russian citizens interviewed by Levada Center sociologists have expressed their positive attitude toward Russia’s air campaign against Islamic State (ISIL) targets in Syria. Fourteen percent of respondents criticized these airstrikes and another 14% were unable to articulate their attitude to Russia’s air force operation in Syria. The survey was conducted in 46 […]

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Russian foreign ministry says postponement of DPR/LPR elections to make parties find common grounds, draw their positions closer

foreign-ministry-200

MOSCOW. Oct 8 (Interfax) – Russia’s foreign ministry hopes that the move to postpone the elections in the self-proclaimed republics in Donbas will create favorable conditions for further discussions on the matter of political settlement of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. “The crucial point was the statement of Donetsk and Luhansk on the shifting of the dates of the local […]

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It’s Time to Recall Kennan’s Long Telegram and Forget His Later Optimism about Change in Russia

Joseph Stalin file photo

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – August 6, 2015) Staunton, October 3 – George Kennan’s famous “long telegram” of February 1946 was written to explain to Western leaders something they found difficult to understand: how Moscow could turn from being a wartime ally into an implacable enemy, a problem that some Western leaders are again finding it difficult to […]

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Interfax: LPR promises to pull back artillery guns after OSCE confirms Ukrainian tanks withdrawal

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Oct 6 (Interfax) – The militia of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic will begin the pullback of artillery systems immediately after the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) confirms the end of the pullback of tanks by the Ukrainian military, the LPR people’s militsiya headquarters told Interfax on Tuesday. “It is needed to wait until the Ukrainian […]

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Interfax: OSCE SMM reports weapons pullback in Donbass in line with Minsk accords

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – October 5, 2015) The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Special Monitoring Mission (OSCE SMM) reports the process of pulling back weapons from the dividing line in Donbass in compliance with the Minsk agreements. In the districts controlled by the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LNR) the monitors have noticed the withdrawal of 30 main combat tanks (T-64 […]

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Syria Air Strikes Raise Risk of Terror Attack in Russia, Experts Warn

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Eva Hartog – October 6, 2015) According to textbooks on political violence, a terrorist attack requires the following key components: a target, an actor or actors, and motivations. The Kremlin’s decision to launch air strikes in Syria could raise the risk of terrorist attacks on Russian soil, security analysts said, as the move increases the […]

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RBTH: Syrian rebels ask U.S. for arms to defend against Russian strikes

Syria Map

Representatives of “moderate” rebel groups in Syria opposed to the regime of Bashar al-Assad have asked the U.S. to supply them with surface-to-air missiles to counter Russian air strikes, American media have reported. Russian observers say this is unlikely but caution that arms may be supplied by the key regional sponsors of Syria’s opposition, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. (Russia Beyond […]

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NEWSLINK Militarytimes.com: “U.S. vs. Russia: What a war would look like between the world’s most fearsome militaries. Vladimir Putin’s brazen moves in Syria and Ukraine raise new questions about America’s contingency plans. Russia has big ambitions, growing capabilities”

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Ukraine Is Being Told to Live With Putin

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – October 5, 2015) Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has long had trouble understanding that the Western support of his government is conditional. Now the leaders of France and Germany have told him that in no uncertain terms: The ceasefire agreement for eastern Ukraine has just been recast to put the onus on Poroshenko, rather […]

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RBTH: Parties satisfied with latest talks on ending Ukraine conflict

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Russian observers are voicing cautious optimism after another round of talks between the leaders of Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine aimed at resolving the Ukrainian conflict. The issue of local elections in the Donbass remain the main stumbling block on the path to finding a political solution to the crisis in eastern Ukraine. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – […]

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Fragile calm holds in East Ukraine before four-way peace talks in Paris

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Graham Stack in Kyiv – October 2, 2015) Hopes for an end to 18 months of fighting in eastern Ukraine hinged on a meeting of the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia in Paris on October 2, with breakthrough prospects enhanced by a recent ceasefire and withdrawal of tanks and other weapons from […]

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Moscow Times: “Putin’s Use of Force In Syria Unlikely to Go Beyond Airstrikes”

Middle East Map

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – September 30, 2015) By providing Syrian President Bashar Assad’s military with material and logistical support, Moscow has committed itself to protecting his embattled regime, which has suffered a series of setbacks at the hands of the Islamic State and U.S.-backed opposition forces. But it remains unclear just how far Russian President Vladimir […]

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NEWSWATCH Washington Post: Petro Poroshenko interview: ‘Ukraine is fighting….for global democracy and freedom’

Petro Poroshenko file photo, with additional men in background, adapted from image at state.gov

The Washington Post features an interview of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko conducted by Lally Weymouth, prior to Poroshenko’s recent address before the United Nations. [Poroshenko:] ‘… we have a very dangerous conflict in the center of Europe with the participation of thousands of Russian troops. We are doing our best to block Putin with political and financial support. We have […]

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Interfax: Joint command in fight against ISIL unrealistic, but efforts on the ground should be coordinated – Lavrov

File Photo of Bashar al-Assad and Sergei Lavrov

MOSCOW. Sept 29 (Interfax) – At their meeting in New York, the Russian and U.S. presidents did not discuss a coalition to fight the Islamic State (ISIL) group in ‘the classical sense of the word’, any joint command is unrealistic, but activities on the ground and airstrikes require coordination, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said. The Russian and U.S. […]

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NEWSLINK Christian Science Monitor: “At UN, Putin talks tough against IS. Will the West work with him? The Russian president bluntly blamed the US for the chaos in the Middle East. But his plan for an alliance against IS may still find some listeners in the West.”

Middle East Map » Read more

VIDEO: NEWSWATCH CBS News/60 Minutes: “All eyes on Putin: At a time of icy relations with the U.S., Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a rare — and surprising — interview to 60 Minutes”

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still

(CBS News – September 27, 2015) Charlie Rose interviews Russian President Vladimir Putin for 60 Minutes on CBS. Click here for CBS News transcript – “All eyes on Putin: At a time of icy relations with the U.S., Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a rare — and surprising — interview to 60 Minutes.” Embedded video below. View More: Newsmakers News|60 […]

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NEWSWATCH Washington Post/Daniel Treisman: “Searching for the roots of Russia’s aggression”

Balaklava harbour, the cattle pier, Crimea, Ukraine, 1855; adapted from image at loc.gov; Fenton, Roger, 1819-1869, photographer;

Writing in The Washington Post, Daniel Treisman of UCLA, and the Russian Political Insight project, considers the roots and contours of Russian aggression.  In part, he draws upon and reviews several new books, by Marvin Kalb, Walter Laqueur and Steven Lee Myers. A generation after the Cold War ended, Russian fighter jets are again probing NATO’s defenses in the skies […]

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Ukraine reforms national security sector for future membership in EU, NATO – military doctrine

NATO Meeting file photo

KYIV. Sept 24 (Interfax) – Kyiv considers as a priority task the deepening of cooperation with NATO and the attainment of full compatibility between the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the relevant forces of the alliance’s states by 2020. This is determined by the new version of the Military Doctrine, the text of which was posted on the official website of […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE – Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#187 :: Friday 25 September 2015

[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List :: JRL 2015-#188 Friday – 25 September 2515 A project sponsored through the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs The contents do not necessarily represent the views of IERES or the George Washington University. JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL […]

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Interfax: Up to 150,000 ethnic Russians may relocate from Ukraine to Russia in 2015 – migration service chief

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

MOSCOW. Sept 24 (Interfax) – Russia’s Federal Migration Service (FMS) expects the arrival of up to 150,000 ethnic Russians from Ukraine in 2015, and 2.6 billion rubles has been allocated from the federal budget for these purposes, FMS director Konstantin Romodanovsky has said. “Since September 2014, regional programs have been confirmed in the Rostov region and the Stavropol territory as […]

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Interfax: Kiev, unrecognized republics should discuss elections in east Ukraine – Kremlin

Dmitry Peskov file photo adapted from image at kremlin.ru/wikimedia commons

(Interfax – September 23, 2015) The implementation of the Minsk agreements with regard to local elections in Donbass, among other things, should be discussed via a direct dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk, presidential spokesman Dmitriy Peskov has said as reported by privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax on 23 September. This is how Peskov answered a question about whether Moscow […]

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Putin calls on CSTO to fight terrorist threat in Central Asia

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

The Collective Security Treaty Organization Summit, which took place in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe on Sept. 14-15, was chiefly devoted to countering the threat of Islamist terrorism in Central Asia. However, Russian experts believe that corruption and poverty are a greater threat to the region than terrorism. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Oleg Yegorov, special to RBTH […]

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Why Russia Is Expanding Its Naval Base in Syria

File Photo of Russian naval vessel on Arctic Ocean

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – September 22, 2015) The Russian military is expanding its tiny naval facility at Tartus on the Syrian coast to handle bigger warships and transport vessels amid a general buildup of Russian forces in territory controlled by Syrian President Bashar Assad, the Kommersant newspaper reported Monday, citing military sources. The news broke as […]

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NEWSWATCH Wall Street Journal: “U.S. Weighs Talks With Russia on Military Activity in Syria. Pentagon leaders grilled over strategy to deal with regime of Bashar al-Assad.”

Syria Map

The Wall Street Journal reports on U.S. military and foreign policy responses to stepped-up Russian activity in Syria, including Congressional criticism of the Obama administration. The Obama administration is considering discussions with Russia on military activities Syria in what would mark a shift in approach as U.S. policy comes under growing criticism at home. * * * In a scorching […]

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The Interpreter Report Spurs Fervent Discussion in Washington, D.C. [re: Ukraine & Russia]

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Institute of Modern Russia – imrussia.org) On September 17, staff members of IMR’s The Interpreter project led an impassioned discussion about Western policy toward Russia and Ukraine at the presentation of their new report, “An Invasion by Any Other Name: The Kremlin’s Dirty War in Ukraine,” in Washington, D.C., on Thursday. [Report here http://www.imrussia.org/en/news/2414-imr-releases-the-interpreter-report-an-invasion-by-any-other-name-the-kremlins-dirty-war-in-ukraine] The Interpreter editor-in-chief Michael Weiss and […]

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TRANSCRIPT: Victoria Nuland at Panel Discussion “Ukraine’s East and Crimea: Solving the Unsolvable”

File Photo of Victoria Nuland Testifying

(Embassy of the United States Kyiv – September 12, 2015) Remarks by Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland at a Panel Discussion “Ukraine’s East and Crimea: Solving the Unsolvable” 12th Yalta European Strategy Annual Meeting Kyiv, Ukraine MODERATOR:  Victoria Nuland, if I may just turn to you. Obviously, you work for the State Department.  You […]

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Putin Tightens Reins on Ukraine Rebels, Putting Conflict on Ice

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Ilya Arkhipov, Stepan Kravchenko – September 17, 2015) Ukrainian separatist leaders say their hopes of full integration with Russia or greater independence are fading as the Kremlin tightens the reins on their rebellion. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears unwilling to risk broadening his conflict with the U.S. and European Union over Ukraine, senior separatist officials said […]

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UN: War in Donbass takes 8,000 lives

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – September 18, 2015) At least 8,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in the hostilities in eastern Ukraine, Christof Heyns, UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary execution, has said. Eight thousand people have died, and according to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission, most of them have been civilians. Artillery shelling incidents are observed on both sides, […]

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Interfax: Russia ready to resume constructive dialogue with NATO – envoy Grushko

NATO Meeting File Photo

(Interfax – September 17, 2015) It is NATO that ought to take the first step towards resuming constructive dialogue between military officials of Russia and the alliance, Moscow’s Permanent Representative to NATO Alexander Grushko has said. “Signals have recently been heard from different ‘corners’ in NATO that it would be a good idea to revive Russia-NATO contacts at the military […]

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The dark side of Ukraine’s constitutional reform; ‘Bloody Monday’ raised the stakes for Ukraine’s constitutional reform. The new law not only affects the state’s relationship with the east, but threatens austerity measures and infringements on human rights

Verkhovna Rada File Photo

(opendemocracy.net – Vitaly Dudin – September 16, 2015) Vitaly Dudin is a legal analyst at Ukraine’s Center for Social and Labor Research, which was created in 2013 as an independent not-for-profit institution dedicated to the analysis of socio-economic problems, collective protests, labour relations and conflicts. 265 votes ‘for’. Three people dead. This is how most of us will remember Ukraine’s […]

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U.S. Envoy Tells Russia’s Neighbors: Having Putin As Your Only Friend Not A Good Idea

Europe Map

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Pete Baumgartner – PRAGUE, September 15, 2015) The U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) says there is a very important lesson for former Soviet republics to have learned from the devastating conflict in eastern Ukraine: Don’t be too reliant on Russia. “Having [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin as your only friend […]

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The Logic and Risks Behind Russia’s Statelet Sponsorship

(Stratfor.com – Reva Bhalla – September 15, 2015) Mother Russia can be quite generous when it comes to her collection of statelets. In the early 1990s, when a broken Russia had no choice but to suck in her borders, a severely distracted Kremlin still found the time and money to promote and sponsor the fledgling breakaway territories of South Ossetia […]

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NEWSLINK The National Interest/Thomas Graham: “Russia’s Syria Surprise (And What America Should Do about It)”

Map of Area Spanning Portions of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, highlighting military engagements against ISIL

[featured image is file photo] “Russian pride will not allow Moscow to join a U.S.-led coalition, but we should be able to work in parallel, coordinating air strikes and other actions for maximum effect in degrading ISIS.”

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