Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Experts react: What the Prigozhin plane crash reveals about Putin, the Wagner Group’s future, and the war in Ukraine” – Atlantic Council

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“… Prigozhin … was reportedly killed in a plane crash … with nine other passengers … traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg, according to Russian authorities and Wagner-affiliated Telegram groups. Some reports have indicated that the plane was downed by Russian air defenses. Just hours earlier, General … Surovikin, who allegedly had advance knowledge of the Wagner mutiny and had […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin, Prigozhin, and Russia’s Future; Caution should be our guiding principle” – The Nation/ Katrina vanden Heuvel

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“… Prigozhin lambasted the elite’s children as ‘shaking their tails on beaches’ while the children of ordinary Russian families are dying. … His fury both stokes and is fueled by widespread anger … [Russian] towns have been emptied by conscription[] and …  cemeteries seek more gravediggers. … It would be reckless to dismiss the possibility that the regime’s internal troubles […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Beginning of the End for Putin? Prigozhin’s Rebellion Ended Quickly, but It Spells Trouble for the Kremlin” – Foreign Affairs/ Liana Fix, Michael Kimmage

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… [Recent] events … portend a dark future for Russia. In a few short hours, Prigozhin’s armed rebellion generated enormous chaos. The war has stretched Russian state capacity thin … [T]he revolt has stretched it still further, presenting … a new domestic challenge. For years, the Kremlin has devised ways to head off a [cosmopolitan,] liberal, urban revolution. … [T]he […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Gripped by Uncertainty After Mutiny, Russians Note Absence of Kremlin Leaders” – New York Times

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“Neither Vladimir V. Putin nor the leader of the Wagner mercenary group made public appearances on Sunday, a day after an armed rebellion shook the nation.” “Confusion and uncertainty pervaded Russia on Sunday … [N]either … Putin nor … Prigozhin, … head of a mutinous mercenary group, appear[ed] anywhere in public a day after the most profound government crisis in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin looked into the abyss Saturday — and blinked” – Washington Post

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… Putin looked into the abyss … and blinked. After vowing revenge for what he called an ‘armed mutiny,’ he settled for a compromise. The speed with which Putin backed down suggests … his sense of vulnerability might be higher even than analysts believed. Putin might have saved his regime Saturday, but this day will be remembered as part of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “…. Prigozhin’s ‘revolt,’ of course, can go down as a clear illustration of the perils of permitting private armies to exist. …” – Fred Weir

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

(Fred Weir – facebook.com/fred.weir – June 24, 2023) “It’s not the first time something bizarre has happened when I am away from Moscow. Prigozhin’s ‘revolt,’ of course, can go down as a clear illustration of the perils of permitting private armies to exist. …” [original post should load below, and also appears at facebook.com/fred.weir/posts/793729415591872/] 

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Prigozhin’s armed insurrection/mutiny/rebellion” – Michael Kofman

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

(Michael Kofman – twitter.com/KofmanMichael – June 25, 2023) “A few thoughts on Prigozhin’s armed insurrection/mutiny/rebellion. For now it appears over. … Prigozhin launched a mutiny that ultimately challenged Putin’s power, and the system. This was not a traditional coup, but with Putin’s video and FSB statements it became a challenge that would reveal the extent of brittleness in the regime. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Wagner’s Aborted Mutiny Leaves No Winners in Russia; The authority of the Russian state has sustained lasting damage, inviting future challenges” – WSJ

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“Shaken by the Wagner mutiny, Russia began addressing the damage of Saturday’s bout of violence as its citizens tried to understand how these events will affect … Putin’s regime, … shown … [to be] so unexpectedly vulnerable. … One widely shared conclusion in Russia …  was that none of the key players in the power struggle that began when Prigozhin […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Prigozhin’s Insurrection Creates Headaches for Russia-China Alliance, Experts Say” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Moscow Times – Jake Cordell) Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against Moscow will have stoked alarm in China and could throw sand in the wheels of the “no-limits” strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday. After a 24-hour armed insurrection in which Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries seized control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Ideology, Money or Freedom? Why Fighters from the Global South Join Russia’s Army in Ukraine” – Moscow Times

Africa Map

(Moscow Times – Leyla Latypova, Vivianne Wandera – June 13, 2023) The family of Tanzanian-born Nemes Raymond Taremo first heard rumors that their beloved relative had been killed on the frontlines in faraway Ukraine in December last year. They received their last message from Taremo, 37, two months earlier — on Oct. 17 — shortly after he joined Russia’s Wagner […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s top mercenary leader turns on Kremlin. What’s behind rift?” – Christian Science Monitor

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has been engaged in very public criticism of Russia’s war effort. Experts say that it’s not a challenge to Vladimir Putin, but positioning for the post-war order.” “Russia’s most successful military leader in the Ukraine war … is not [even] a soldier …. Yevgeny Prigozhin is a former convict and Kremlin-connected entrepreneur whose private … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Will Russia invade Belarus?” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“Russia has a lot more to lose than to gain from an annexation of Belarus. But it will be hard to lose anything in a post-Lukashenko Belarus” “… Lukashenko … [said] he would ask … Putin to help Belarus ‘restore order[,]’ … [that] protests ‘threaten the whole former Soviet space’ …. [Social media] [v]ideo … show[s] Russian army trucks … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Lukashenko rhetoric shows fallout between Minsk and Moscow”- Financial Times/ Max Seddon, James Shotter

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“Arrest of 33 Russians comes as Belarusian president’s strategy of playing Russia and the west off each other founders.” “… Belarus authorities arrested the [Russian] men [checking into a sanatorium outside Minsk as would-be tourists] and another Russian, claiming they were mercenaries plotting to ‘destabilise the situation’ ahead of Sunday’s [historically contentious] elections [in Belarus] …. [The arrests and surrounding […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, Seeking to Bolster its Influence, Steps Up Intervention in Libyan Conflict” – CNSNews/ Dimitri Simes

U.S. Africa Command Screenshot from Defense Department Video of Russian Fighter Jet in Flight

“Russia is reportedly stepping up … involvement in the Libyan civil war … in recent years … a heated proxy conflict drawing in numerous foreign players … [with] a range of motives. … U.S. Africa Command issued a statement, … with satellite imagery, accusing Russia of deploying 14 fighter jets to Libya in support of the Wagner Group, a Russian […]

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What You Need to Know About Joining the Russian Army

File Photo of Russian Military Conscripts Boarding Train with Gear

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – January 13, 2015) Tried to join the French Foreign Legion and didn’t make the cut? Don’t fret – the Russian military has created its own force of foreign citizens to fight Moscow’s wars. The Russian Defense Ministry last month announced that foreigners could enlist in the Russian military, a move ostensibly aimed […]

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