JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Exiled Them. Big Mistake. Exiles from Putin’s Russia have a powerful role to play in what comes next in their country. It’s happened before.” – Politico/ Leon Aron

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“When it comes to regime change, there’s an important relationship between regime opponents inside the country, and exiles outside the country. This has played out over and over again in history, particularly in Russia. This dynamic will be important to whatever happens in Russia in the wake of … Putin’s ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine. … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Ukraine Hasn’t Been a Boon to U.S. Defense Companies” – WSJ

Aerial Photo of Pentagon and Environs

“Soaring demand for munitions hasn’t translated yet into big sales for arms producers suffering from supply chain snarls, labor shortages.” “… [Q]uantities of arms the U.S. is sending to Ukraine are eye-catching: [such as] thousands of artillery shells and missiles, and hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition …. [with] [t]he total security assistance package[]now worth more than $27 billion […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Talks between Russia and Ukraine would save lives, argues Christopher Chivvis; The foreign-policy expert writes as part of a series debating the wisdom of peace negotiations” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [T]he war in Ukraine will pass its one-year mark [Feb. 24] with no end in sight. … [C]osts are mounting, Europe faces an epic refugee crisis, tens of thousands … have died and total casualties … run into the hundreds of thousands. Plans to provide Ukraine with Western tanks … indicate … America, Germany and others are settling in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia May Run Out of Missiles in Three Months: Intelligence Report” – Newsweek

Kremlin and River

“Russia may not have enough missiles to continue conducting massive strikes against Ukraine for more than three months …. Estonia’s Intelligence Chief Margo Grosberg said that based on Russia’s current capability for producing precision-guided munitions, it could continue to carry out the missile strikes … for three to four more month …. [His] ‘more pessimistic’ outlook is … six to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “To Fix Its Problems in Ukraine, Russia Turns to the Architect of the War” – New York Times

File Photo of U.S. Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, left, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, accepts a gift from his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, during a meeting in Brussels, Jan. 21, 2014. Photo adapted from image at defense.gov.

“President Vladimir V. Putin is on his third overall commander in Ukraine. But his military’s fundamental issues have not been addressed, Western officials say.” “Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, … architect of … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, [reportedly] took over the day-to-day running of Russia’s war effort this month by convincing his boss that his predecessor was too passive …. Promoting […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Last Taboo: Germany’s Leopard Tanks Are a Game Changer with Significant Risks” – Der Spiegel

File Photo of Leopard Tank Preparing to Ford a River, adapted from Defense.gov image with photo credit to Army Sgt. Garrett Ty Whitfield

“With the delivery of Leopard battle tanks from Germany, the Ukraine war is entering into a new and dangerous phase. Olaf Scholz must … clean up the political damage … hold his country together and find a path … to end the conflict. … NATO has … stayed out of the war, but … wants to be prepared. … [NATO] […]

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JRL NEWSWEEK: “Russia Could Collapse Into ‘New States’ After Ukrainian Victory: Economist” – Newsweek

Russia Regions Map

“A Ukrainian victory could lead to the fall of the Russia Federation as we know it, according to one European economist. … Given that Russia is currently divided into a total of 89 regions — including 21 republics, 6 federal territories, 2 federal cities (Moscow and St. Petersburg), 49 regions, 1 autonomous region and 10 autonomous areas — [the economist] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse; Not planning for the possibility of disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination.” – Foreign Policy/ Alexander J. Motyl

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Ever since Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv and install a puppet government failed in the early days of the war, a defeat for the Kremlin in Ukraine has looked increasingly likely. What’s stunning … is the near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia. … considering the potential for Russia’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Time is not on Ukraine’s side” – Washington Post/ Condoleezza Rice, Robert M. Gates

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“When it comes to the war in Ukraine, about the only thing that’s certain … is that the fighting and destruction will continue. … Putin remains fully committed to bringing all of Ukraine back under Russian control or — failing that — destroying it as a viable country. He believes it is his historical destiny — his messianic mission — […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Rebound: How Moscow Has Partly Recovered From Its Military Setbacks” – Foreign Affairs

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“‘All the dumb Russians are dead[,]’ … said Ukrainian officials in July … as they sought to explain why the Russian army had abandoned the overambitious strategy and amateurish tactics that defined its [earlier] conduct …. It was probably too early to make this quip. The Russians continued to do many dumb things and indeed still do. But broadly speaking […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Is Already Paying Us Back; Our investments in Ukrainian democracy are paying off. Now is not the time to pull back.” – Politico

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

“Ukraine is … defeating the Russian army … crippling one of America’s most dangerous adversaries. … For decades, Washington has invested in supporting the institutions that enabled Ukraine to take a different path than Russia, … toward democracy and independence … away from autocracy and subservience, and to tackle corruption to serve citizens instead of fostering kleptocracy …. As … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line Advisers” – WSJ

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

“Russia’s president built a power structure designed to deliver him the information he wants to hear, feeding into his miscalculations on the Ukraine war.” “… [Putin reportedly] seemed to have limited understanding of the reality of the situation [in a particular location] …. His poorly equipped front-line troops were being encircled by a Ukrainian advance backed by artillery provided by […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Zelensky Urges Ukrainians to Persevere as Putin Says Moscow Ready for Long War” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“In a defiant Christmas message, Ukraine’s president called on Ukrainians to continue to resist Russian forces.” “… Ukrainian officials … warned that Russia would try to make the Christmas and New Year period as miserable as possible for Ukrainian civilians, part of a focus on targeting the population far behind the front lines. Moscow has targeted Ukraine’s power grid and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Won’t Be Using Patriot Missiles Anytime Soon After Omnibus’ Passing” – Newsweek

Patriot Missile Launch file photo

“The recently-approved Patriot air missile defense system from the United States is heading to Ukraine, but the timeline for … delivery and implementation remains vague. The missile defense system is the standout piece of an additional $1.85 billion in security assistance announced by [DOD] … Wednesday simultaneously as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Washington D.C. …. While … Putin dismissed […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Some Ukrainians move up Christmas to part ways with Russia” – AP

File Photo of Saint Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv, adapted from image at cia.gov by Steven C. Welsh :: www.stevencwelsh.com :: www.stevencwelsh.info

“Some Orthodox Ukrainians have decided to observe Christmas on Dec. 25, like many Christians around the world. … The idea … was considered radical in Ukraine until recently, but Russia’s invasion changed many hearts and minds. In October, the leadership of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine … not aligned with the Russian church[,] … one of two branches of Orthodox […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Belarus Is Inching Toward Invading Ukraine; Signs are growing that an invasion from the north could be imminent” – Foreign Policy

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“Recent satellite images of Belarus show newly carved forest roads and the movement of a slow stream of military equipment to Ukraine’s northern border. Many experts take it as a sign that Belarus is likely to be the next front in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The arrival of new equipment, together with a recent ‘counterterror’ operation and snap inspection of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.” – Foreign Policy/ Agathe Demarais

File Image of Artist's Conception of Globe with Curved Connecting Lines of Light Passing Through Space, adapted from image at fincen.gov

“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What is the war in Ukraine teaching Western armies? It shows the importance of dispersal, firepower and stockpiles” – The Economist

File photo

“… The pivotal role of artillery is a sobering thought for western European armies, whose firepower has dwindled dramatically since the end of the cold war. … Ukraine[] … started the war with over 1,000 barrel artillery systems (those with long tubes) and 1,680 multiple-rocket launchers — more than Britain, France, Italy, Spain and Poland [combined] … the largest artillery […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU Asks Members to Set Russia Oil-Price Cap at $60” – WSJ

Oil Well file photo

“Move is an attempt to squeeze the Kremlin’s oil revenues while keeping global supplies steady.” “The European Commission, the [EU]’s executive body, [reportedly] has asked the [EU]’s 27 member states to approve a … Russian oil [price cap] of $60 a barrel …. significantly below the international benchmark … Brent …. … [T]he [G7] … nations [would] need to sign […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Cracking open ‘The Nutcracker’s’ dark Russian past; Behind the holiday classic lies an unsavory history that may change the way you think about it” – Washington Post

File Photo of Ballerina and Male Ballet Dancer in The Nutcracker. adapted from image at defense.gov, with credit U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Chris Harper

“… The fruits of a violent imperial system lie behind the work’s bright, bouncy ‘Chinese’ dance … and its slow, seductive ‘Arabian’ scene…. At ‘The Nutcracker’s’ premiere … [in] 1892, in St. Petersburg, the ballet paid homage to the czar and his empire …. If you look at some of the forces giving rise to it, and that still live […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. officials think Ukraine could negotiate with Russia. Some Europeans aren’t so sure.” – NBC

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“‘There is clearly alarm among central Europeans that this is the beginning of a process that will force Ukraine to accept a deal,’ one analyst said.” “A split appeared to be opening this week among Ukraine’s supporters …. Some U.S. political and military officials have questioned whether the war could ever be concluded through force, with diplomatic talks the inevitable […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Deaths in Poland Are a Warning for Everyone” – Foreign Policy

Map of Poland and Environs

“Errant missiles from Ukraine are a reminder that wars can always escalate accidentally.” “If you think the risks of escalation in the Ukraine war are trivial, the tragic deaths of two Polish citizens from an errant Ukrainian air defense missile on Tuesday should give you some pause. … [E]ven if the adversaries are trying to be careful, big wars are […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Every Ukrainian knows both patriots and collaborators” – Washington Post

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“I couldn’t be more thrilled that Ukraine has finally liberated my hometown of Kherson. … [T]here are still countless problems ahead[] … no water, gas or electricity[,] [p]eople … hungry and cold. … [T]hen there are the moral and political problems — such as alleged collaborators. … I’ve never doubted that most people in Kherson are loyal to Kyiv. But […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Russian Empire Must Die: A better future requires Putin’s defeat — and the end to imperial aspirations” – The Atlantic

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“… The cultural weight of the past is heavy, and the habits of autocracy — especially the habit of living in fear — persist. The attraction of power is also strong. … and the next government of Russia might well be even more repressive …. Countries evolve, sometimes creating better governments … sometimes worse …. Empires fall: The Russian empire […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Election Interference Went as Well as Their War in Ukraine” – Newsweek

Multilingual Polling Place Sign from U.S. Election Polling Place

“… Vladimir Solovyov started his radio show Full Contact (Polny Contakt) … Tuesday … saying, ‘Happy interference in the U.S. elections day.’ … [A]nother Putin ally, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who founded the Wagner mercenary group … fighting in Ukraine, said Russia … previously interfered in U.S. elections ‘carefully’ and ‘surgically,’ …. Elizabeth Van Wie Davis, author of Shadow Warfare: Cyberwar Policy […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Here’s the sad truth about election-related disinformation” – Washington Post

Multilingual Polling Place Sign from U.S. Election Polling Place

“Russian interference is so 2016. While this year’s midterms revealed that disinformation threats from foreign adversaries remain real as ever, they have also shown great danger right here at home. The elections went off … with relatively few snags, and few allegations of fraud (so far) compared with the aftermath of the 2020 presidential contest. Yet even before the vote, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “In Russian-occupied Izyum, she was raped and tortured” – Washington Post

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Soon after Russian forces took her prisoner, the 52-year-old woman picked up a nail and carved her name into a brick wall. A-L-L-A, she wrote. Below, she scratched how many days she had been held in the shed outside a medical clinic in her hometown. Above, she wrote in simple words what she had endured in captivity: ELECTRICAL SHOCK. UNDRESS. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Diplomacy Is Still (Just About) Possible in Ukraine; The Black Sea agreement offers a model for off-ramps to escalation” – Foreign Policy

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… There has been one … diplomatic effort … agreed on and implemented by all parties involved (including both Ukraine and Russia) … [that] could also serve as a framework for preventing the war from worsening. … the Black Sea Grain Initiative … mediated by Turkey and the United Nations. … … [It] paved the way for a humanitarian maritime […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Grain Shipment Departs for First Time Since Russian Invasion” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Ship leaves port of Odessa following deal aimed at easing the global food crisis.” “[On Monday] Ukraine dispatched its first grain shipment since the start of Russia’s invasion … the first test for a deal reached last month to allow Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, to begin shipping some 18 million metric tons that Russia’s invasion … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Who Is Vladimir Putin? Philip Short’s ‘Putin’ is an impressive biography but one that necessarily lacks the final chapters of the story.” – New York Times

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“PUTIN, by Philip Short | Illustrated | 864 pp. | Henry Holt & Company | $40 … Short’s account is both perfectly and unfortunately timed, arriving just when we most need to understand Putin, yet missing the chapter that may yet define his place in history. … Short’s version nonetheless offers a compelling, impressive and methodically researched account of Putin’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kremlin says nuclear arms control talks hinge on U.S. goodwill” – AP

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“The Kremlin said Tuesday … it’s ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control even as Moscow and Washington have remained locked in a tense standoff over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Commenting on … Biden’s statement that Washington is open for talks on a new arms control deal to replace the New START treaty after it expires […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A dark state; Vladimir Putin is in thrall to a distinctive brand of Russian fascism; That is why his country is such a threat to Ukraine, the West and his own people” – The Economist

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… A decade ago [when][] Putin’s popularity began to wane[] [h]e … [started] drawing on … fascist thinking … caught up in a cycle of grievance and resentment that has left reason far behind. … culminat[ing] in a ruinous war that … defied the weighing of risks and rewards. … Without the rhetoric of victimhood and the use of violence, […]

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JRL NEWSBLOG: “The U.S. has admitted 100,000 Ukrainian migrants. It must keep going.” – Washington Post

Statue of Liberty Head and U.S. Flag, adapted from image at uscis.gov

“The United States has now met … [a] goal … to legally admit ‘up to’ 100,000 Ukrainians fleeing … Putin’s blood-soaked invasion. That … shouldn’t mark the end of … [a] commitment to shar[e] the burden of the … humanitarian nightmare …. The administration … should prepare for another 100,000. … [M]any … allies have shouldered a greater refugee burden […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “As Ukraine defends in the east and south, a U.S. official says Russia’s war effort is failing” – New York Times

Ukraine Map Highlighting Donbas, adapted from image at defense.gov, with photo credit to Peggy Frierson, DOD

“The Ukrainian military repelled attempted Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and pounded critical Russian logistical hubs overnight into Saturday as Russia continued to bombard towns and cities along the 400-mile front …. Ukraine made small but steady gains in … Kherson, a [southern] port city … where thousands of Russian soldiers are … largely isolated after Ukrainian strikes on … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Shut Down by the Kremlin, Independent Russian Media Regroup Abroad” – WSJ

Fingers Typing on Computer Keyboard, adapted form image at nps.gov

“News outlets forced to close since Russia invaded Ukraine are soldiering on in exile.” “… [Following] Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin adopted legislation punishing the dissemination of false information about [Russian military activities] with up to 15 years in prison. [The] Kremlin … said … the law was needed because of ‘the absolutely unprecedented information war … against our […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Hillary Clinton Did It: Her 2016 campaign manager says she approved a plan to plant a false Russia claim with a reporter” – WSJ

File Photo of White House with South Lawn and Fountain

“The Russia-Trump collusion narrative of 2016 and beyond was a dirty trick for the ages, and now we know it came from the top — candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton … [according to federal courtroom] testimony Friday by 2016 Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook …. [T]he Clinton campaign created the Trump-Alfa allegation, fed it to a credulous press that failed to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Russia’s grim demographics could thwart Putin’s global ambitions” – Washington Post

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

“The Russian army’s strangely stumble-footed invasion of Ukraine is only the latest reminder of the pervasive and long-standing ‘human resource’ woes that frustrate … Putin’s aspirations for superpower status. … Russia is depopulating — even after Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, its total numbers are lower today than when the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia’s working-age population and its pool […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Zelensky Tamed Ukraine’s Fractious Politics and Stood Up to Putin” – New York Times

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

“Russian tanks were rolling over the border and Kyiv … was in … fear and panic. Street fighting broke out … [A] Russian armored column … advanced to within two miles of the office of … Zelensky. In those tense first days of the war, almost everyone … expected the Ukrainian leadership to fracture. Instead, [] Zelensky decided to personally […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia plans to sue over frozen currency reserves, central bank says” – Financial Times

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Western sanctions have cut off Moscow from nearly half of its foreign exchange holdings.” “… Two days after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine … G7 countries and the European Commission announced … sanctions on Russia’s central bank to block it from accessing its foreign exchange holdings. The central bank is unable to access nearly half of its $609.4bn in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The guns of January; As war looms larger, what are Russia’s military options in Ukraine?” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The Kremlin’s aim would probably be to shatter Ukrainian military power and dictate terms.” “… Even with [various] advantages, Russia would struggle to occupy [Kyiv], let alone … Ukraine, … as large and populous as Afghanistan. … [O]ver 300,000 Ukrainians have gained … military experience … [M]ost have access to firearms. … [T]he Pentagon and CIA [reportedly] would both support […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia denies looking for pretext to invade Ukraine” – AP

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

According to the White House, U.S. intelligence officials believe Russia has deployed operatives to rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine to carry out acts of sabotage and blame them on Ukraine, in a ‘false-flag operation’ to create a pretext for possible invasion […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Energy Dependence Ties Europe’s Hands in U.S.-Russia Crisis” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“Europe gets almost one-third of its natural gas from Russia, limiting its ability to penalize Moscow.” Europe’s growing dependence on Russian gas and oil is limiting [European] room to maneuver … and making [Europe] highly vulnerable … [if] escalation [occurs in the crisis with Russia]. … Western officials accuse [Russia] of withholding extra supplies in recent months to force European […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Suggests Military Deployment to Venezuela, Cuba if Tensions With U.S. Remain High” – WSJ

File Photo of Wendy Sherman and Sergei Ryabkov Standing In Front of U.S. and Russian Flags, adapted from image at state.gov

“Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov said Moscow couldn’t exclude sending ‘military infrastructure’ to the two countries as tensions with U.S. soar and says talks have stalled.” “… Ryabkov said Thursday that Moscow couldn’t exclude dispatching ‘military infrastructure’ to Venezuela or Cuba if tensions with Washington — which have soared in recent weeks over a huge buildup of Russian troops on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia-Led Troops to Begin Leaving Kazakhstan in 2 Days — President” – AFP

Almaty file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

“… Tokayev said Tuesday that a contingent of Russia-led [CSTO] forces would begin leaving … in two days … the pullout … tak[ing] no more than 10 days. … [M]ore than 2,000 troops [were] d[i]spatched at the peak of the crisis … after armed clashes between government opponents and security forces and a looting spree [left] parts of the largest […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Where Does NATO Enlargement End?” – Creators.com/ Patrick Buchanan

NATO Meeting File Photo

“… NATO … Article 5 war guarantees … oblige the United States to wage war against Russia to restore … [the] sovereignty and territorial integrity [of NATO allies] if [they are] attacked. … Why would we commit to risk war with a nuclear-armed Russia on behalf of nations no one has ever regarded as vital interests of the United States  […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Donetsk counts conflict cost as Russia, U.S. to meet” – AP

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“While Russia and the U.S. are preparing to meet for critical strategic talks over Ukraine, residents in the rebel-controlled Ukrainian city of Donetsk claim the Ukrainian army started heavy firing on New Year’s Eve.” “… A 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany ended large-scale battles, but frequent skirmishes have continued. The [OSCE] … has reported an increasing number […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why The Kremlin Lies: Understanding Its Loose Relationship With the Truth” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

Russian leaders have used deception for strategic ends in ways that shed light on their geopolitical goals […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing” – Foreign Affairs

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

To Deter a Ukraine Invasion, Washington’s Threats Need to Be Tougher […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How to Get What We Want From Putin” – Politico.com

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

Talks on European security underway between the U.S. and Russia will be difficult because the two countries don’t trust one another, not even a little […]

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