IMF: Russian Economy Will Contract 0.6 Percent in 2016, Recover In 2017

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – November 30, 2016) The International Monetary Fund said the Russian economy should continue to contract this year, with gross domestic product dropping 0.6 percent, but says it will begin recovering in 2017. The projections from the Washington-based IMF, issued November 29 after a team visited Moscow earlier this month, were roughly in line with other Russian […]

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A Year After $18 Billion Debt Deal, Ukraine Is Hardly Better Off

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Natasha Doff – August 29, 2016) [Charts here bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/a-year-after-18-billion-debt-deal-ukraine-is-hardly-better-off] A year after Ukraine averted default by reaching an agreement with creditors to restructure $18 billion of debt, the country’s bond market is again beginning to veer off course. After outperforming all of emerging Europe in the first seven months of the year, some of those gains […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Worst may be over for Russia, risks rising in central Europe: IMF”

Europe Map

The worst of the economic slump in Russia may be over the International Monetary Fund said on Friday, but warned possible euro zone stagnation and shifting politics made central Europe’s prospects increasingly uncertain. … Using forecasts produced last month, it said growth in the central channel from Poland down to Turkey would remain as healthy as 3-4 percent this year, […]

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NEWSWATCH Reuters: “Russia Grants Ukraine’s Request to Delay Eurobond Case Defense”

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Russia has agreed to allow Ukraine extra time to file its defence with a British court … Russia filed a lawsuit … demanding repayment of the $3 billion Eurobond …. Ukraine insists Russia must accept restructuring terms agreed with other foreign creditors. … Ukraine had until March 19 to file its defence although it was granted an extension until April […]

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Top U.S. Official: Ukraine Reforms Endangered By Oligarchs Fighting Back

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – WASHINGTON, March 15, 2016) A top U.S. administration official has taken pointed aim at the wealthiest Ukrainian tycoons, known as oligarchs, accusing them of undermining the country’s anticorruption reform efforts. Victoria Nuland, assistant secretary of state for European аnd Eurasian Affairs, warned on March 15 that, if efforts to liberalize the economy and fight endemic graft […]

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The Russia-Ukraine Bond Dispute: Another Frozen Conflict?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Subject: The Russia-Ukraine Bond Dispute: Another Frozen Conflict? Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2016 From: Peter Clateman <pclateman@yahoo.com> Transnational Dispute Management transnational-dispute-management.com This article will be published in a future issue of TDM (2016). Check website for final publication date for correct reference. This article may not be the final version and should be consideredas a draft article. About TDM TDM […]

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The Russia-Ukraine Bond Dispute: Another Frozen Conflict?

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

Subject: The Russia-Ukraine Bond Dispute: Another Frozen Conflict? Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2016 From: Peter Clateman <pclateman@yahoo.com> Transnational Dispute Management transnational-dispute-management.com This article will be published in a future issue of TDM (2016). Check website for final publication date for correct reference. This article may not be the final version and should be consideredas a draft article. About TDM TDM […]

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Ukraine President Urges Coalition to Decide on Cabinet, Premier

Rada File Photo

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Daryna Krasnolutska – February 29, 2016) Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ruled out an early national election and urged a majority coalition in parliament to decide on a new cabinet to end the worst political crisis since deadly street protests ousted Kremlin-backed leader Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. “We don’t have the time because it will mean half […]

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NEWSWATCH: “A Pyrrhic Victory for President Poroshenko” – Atlantic Council/Anders Aslund

Rada File Photo

… February 16, the Ukrainian parliament deemed the performance of its government unsatisfactory with 247 votes, but only 194 parliamentarians voted for a no-confidence measure. The government did not fall … this strange vote may appear a victory for … Poroshenko, but it seems a Pyrrhic victory that may have broken the ruling coalition in parliament and brought Ukraine closer […]

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Ukraine Bond Rout Worsens on Bets Political Tussle to Block Aid

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Natasha Doff – February 8, 2016) Ukrainian bonds slid, sending the yield on the nation’s shortest-dated restructured debt above 11 percent for the first time, as a political shakeup raised the likelihood for further delays to an international bailout that’s keeping the country afloat. The $1.15 billion of bonds maturing in September 2019 dropped 2.22 cents […]

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After Default to Putin, What’s Next for Ukraine-Russia Bond Row

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Natasha Doff and Marton Eder – December 20, 2015) A two-year feud between Ukraine and Russia is on the verge of being played out in a London courtroom after the government in Kiev defaulted on $3 billion in bonds. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko followed through on months of threats on Friday by reneging on the debt […]

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IMF Says Ukraine Bond Owned by Russia Is Official Sovereign Debt

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Andrew Mayeda – December 17, 2015) The International Monetary Fund’s executive board ruled that a bond sold by Ukraine to Russia should be considered official sovereign debt, putting pressure on Ukrainian officials to start restructuring talks with their Russian counterparts. Russia bought a $3 billion bond from the government of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in […]

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Russian analysts: IMF response to Ukraine debt hurts global finance system

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The International Monetary Fund has allowed lending to countries that are in arrears on their debts to sovereign creditors. This decision will allow the fund to continue the program of assistance to Ukraine, even if the country does not return the $3 billion it owes to Russia. Russian experts claim the new policy undermines the foundations of the global financial […]

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Ukrainian government must take important political decisions in view of its obligations to IMF – U.S. Vice President Biden

Joe Biden Speaking in Front of U.S. Flags and Ukrainian Flag

KYIV. Dec 7 (Interfax) – The United States Vice President Joseph Biden has stressed the need for Ukraine to make important political decisions in the context of its obligations to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The parties talked about the very important implementation of Ukraine’s obligations to the IMF with the aim to continue the assistance, Biden said at a […]

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Lavrov: U.S. admits lack of prospects of restoring Ukrainian solvency

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(Interfax – November 7, 2015) By having refused to guarantee Ukraine’s debt as part of Russia’s proposal to restructure it, the United States effectively admitted the absence of prospects of restoring its solvency, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with Interfax. “We were ready to restructure Ukraine’s $3 billion debt at much more advantageous terms than those […]

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Russia Pushes IMF for Response, Won’t Send Debt Offer to Ukraine

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas – November 20, 2015) Russia, which has previously refused to negotiate with Ukraine over restructuring its $3 billion Eurobond, is waiting for the International Monetary Fund to respond to its proposal to change the terms on the debt and expects the cash-strapped country to initiate new talks if it’s unable to pay in full […]

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Ukraine Rebuffs Putin’s Offer to Restructure Russian Debt

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – November 20, 2015) Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has rejected Russia’s restructuring proposal for the repayment of Kiev’s eurobond debt, and said the “aggressor state” should accept the same terms as other bondholders. The “basic conditions” that must be included in any debt restructuring plan include a 20 percent reduction on the face value of […]

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Ukraine ‘breadbasket’ prepares for its next heyday

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Benjamin Rahr in London – October 7, 2015) Despite Ukraine’s 18-month old civil war and the loss of territories in the east of the country, it has impressively maintained its status as one of the world’s leading exporters of agricultural products. Now the pro-European government in Kyiv hopes that its agribusiness, bolstered by a […]

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Ukraine Sees IMF Bailout Continuing Even With Russia Bond Unpaid

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Natasha Doff, Lyubov Pronina – October 5, 2015) Ukrainian Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said she’s optimistic the International Monetary Fund will continue its aid program even if the war-torn nation breaches the lender’s policy by going into arrears on payment of a $3 billion bond owed to Russia. Support from the Group of Seven industrialized nations […]

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Russia refuses to accept ‘restructuring’ of Ukrainian debt

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

The Kremlin is refusing to accept proposals by Kiev to restructure $3 billion worth of bonds and demands full payment on the debt. Experts point out that this is an economic as well as a political issue and it could become a bargaining chip in the ongoing negotiations over a bilateral gas deal. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – […]

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Ukraine Lobbies Lawmakers With Debt Vote Said at Risk of Failing

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Natasha Doff, Daryna Krasnolutska – September 16, 2015) Ukraine’s government has stepped up last-minute lobbying because of growing concern that lawmakers won’t back an accord to restructure $18 billion of foreign debt. Government officials have met with ruling and opposition parties before a vote Thursday that’s supposed to give final approval to the debt deal, according […]

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Odds grow for Ukrainian default on $3 billion Russia debt

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – August 28, 2015) Despite an initial surge of optimism about Ukraine’s financial health after it appeared to clinch a crucial restructuring deal with private creditors, the country is increasingly expected to default on a $3bn Russian-held Eurobond due for redemption in December 2015. The likelihood of the scenario grew after the […]

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Ukraine’s wartime privatisation

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Sergei Kuznetsov in Kyiv – August 28, 2015) Desperate to raise money, the Ukrainian government is determined to start a massive privatisation campaign before the end of this year. A total of 345 companies are on the list, including some of the state’s most attractive assets. But will there be any buyers? The economy […]

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Ukraine not out of the woods yet

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – KYIV BLOG: Ben Aris in Moscow – August 28, 2015) The $3.6bn debt deal announced on August 27 by Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance, where private bondholders agreed to take a 20% writedown on the face value of $18bn in government debt, is very good news. Yet it’s not a done deal and the final […]

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All You Need to Know About Ukraine’s $18 Billion Debt Agreement

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Natasha Doff – August 27, 2015) Ukraine reached a bond-restructuring agreement with about half of its private-sector creditors on Thursday after five months of negotiations. Below are the details of the terms of the agreement and what happens next. Which bonds are included? The deal covers $18 billion of Ukraine’s foreign debt, including 11 government Eurobonds […]

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Ukraine Is Too Corrupt for Debt Deal to Work

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – August 25, 2015) Ukraine is reportedly close to a deal with its private creditors, who may accept a 20 percent haircut. This is an uneasy compromise that would solve little, because the government continues to fail where it really matters: cutting corruption and bringing the country’s huge shadow economy into the tax system. […]

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Ukraine’s largest lender PrivatBank investigated for diverting $1.8bn of IMF funds

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Graham Stack in Kyiv – August 24, 2015) PrivatBank, Ukraine’s largest lender partly owned by controversial oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, is under criminal investigation by the authorities for fraudulently diverting around what was then about $1.8bn, the bank has confirmed. “We are aware of the existence of criminal proceedings. PrivatBank fully cooperates with the investigators […]

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NEWSWATCH AFP: IMF: Ukraine economic picture ‘incredibly encouraging’

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AFP reports on the IMF’s ongoing assessment of Ukrainian political and economic trends. Ukraine’s government is determined to undertake long-needed reforms, making the economic picture in the country very encouraging, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Wednesday. * * * ‘Ukraine has been an incredibly encouraging situation,’ she said  * * * Lagarde emphasized the gains that are being made, […]

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Ukraine is ripe for the shock doctrine; Like many states in crisis before it, Ukraine serves as a perfect opportunity for neoliberal transformation.

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(opendemocracy.net – Sean Guillory – July 27, 2015) Sean Guillory is a UCIS/REES postdoctoral fellow at the University of Pittsburgh. He hosts the podcast New Books in Russian and Eurasian Studies and received his PhD in History at UCLA. Follow him on Twitter @seansrussiablog While a crisis of faith, of sorts, has resounded in western discourse on the economic effectiveness […]

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NEWSWATCH Reuters: Ukraine puts new debt restructuring proposals to creditors – minister

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Reuters covers the restructuring of Ukrainian debt. Heavily indebted Ukraine has made new proposals to its creditors for restructuring $23 billion of foreign debt and is now awaiting their response …. *** The IMF has brought relief to Ukraine by saying it will disburse $1.7 billion in fresh funds under a $17.5 bailout package irrespective of a restructuring deal being […]

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Ukrainian PM expects more substantial financial aid from West

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KYIV. July 27 (Interfax) – Ukraine does not receive appropriate financial aid from Western countries, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said. “We are grateful for the existing level of support but it is necessary to admit that we are awfully underfinanced,” Yatsenyuk said during a board meeting of the Finance Ministry in Kyiv on Monday. According to the prime minister, […]

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NEWSWATCH Wall Street Journal/Stephen Hadley, Robert Zoellick: Crucial Weapons in the Defense of Ukraine. Without debt reduction and more aid, a young democracy could vanish.

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Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Stephen Hadley and Robert Zoellick address the issue of Western assistance for Ukraine amidst the Russo-Ukrainian War, including financial and debt-related assistance. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is an assault on the vision that emerged from the end of the Cold War of a Europe whole, free and at peace. For that vision to be realized, the […]

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Ukraine’s default ducks are all in a row

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – June 30, 2015) Ukraine has lined up all the ducks it needs to successfully default on its privately held bonds. Ukrainian Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko indicated she wanted to meet with both the IMF and the ad hoc committee of private creditors in Washington before or on June 30. […]

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IMF Staff Said to View Ukraine Russia Bond as Official Debt

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Elena Popina, Marton Eder – June 23, 2015) International Monetary Fund staff formed a preliminary view that $3 billion in bonds sold to Russia by Ukraine should be classified as official rather than private debt, according to a person familiar with the matter. Treating the bonds as state aid, as Russia has sought, would exclude them […]

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What will happen if Ukraine defaults?

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Graham Stack in Berlin – June 12, 2015) With Ukraine edging closer to the world’s first unilateral sovereign default since Argentina’s in 2001, analysts are grappling with the question of how this might impact on the ex-Soviet republic as its strives for deeper integration with the EU and the West. Ukrainian default on $23bn […]

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IMF will still lend to Ukraine if private creditors go unpaid

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – June 10, 2015) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says it will continue lending to Ukraine, even if the country fails to make payments to private creditors. “We have a policy of lending into arrears which allows us to continue lending to a member state when it has arrears with private creditors, […]

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