NEWSWATCH: “‘No miracles’: labor shortage set to hit Russia’s GDP” – Reuters/Denis Pinchuk, Maria Kiselyova

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“A dearth of young people joining Russia’s workforce because of a low birth rate will shave several percent off potential economic growth in the next five to six years, Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said. … the labour shortage made it hard for technology companies, among others, to recruit staff they need …. * * * ‘To a large extent economic growth […]

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Central Bank analysts lower Russian GDP growth forecast in Q3-Q4 on weak industrial production data

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MOSCOW. Sept 6 (Interfax) – Central Bank analysts have lowered their forecast for Russian GDP growth in Q3 from 0.6% to 0.4%-0.5% on a quarterly basis excluding seasonality, the Central Bank’s Research and Forecasting Department said in its bulletin Talking Trends. The estimate for October-December 2017 was also lowered from 0.6% to 0.4%. “The main sources of the downward revision […]

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Interfax: Russian GDP could grow more than 2% in Aug, 2017 – Oreshkin

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PARIS. Aug 29 (Interfax) – Russian GDP growth could quicken to more than 2% in August, Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin told reporters in Paris. The economy could also grow more than 2% for 2017 as a whole, he said following a meeting with French business leaders. “We expect growth [year-on-year GDP growth] will return to more than 2% as […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russian economy boss: sanctions no longer bite” – AP

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“… Maxim Oreshkin … [said that] the Russian economy is on track to grow at least 2 percent this year. That would be a first after 2014, when the economy sank into recession driven by sinking oil prices and sanctions over Russian actions in Ukraine. … he said, ‘we see more willingness on the Asian side to work with us.’ He wouldn’t […]

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NEWSWATCH: “IMF says Russia’s economy is gradually recovering” – bne Intellinews

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“The IMF projects real growth of GDP in Russia at the level of 1.4% in 2017 …. According to the World Bank, the Russian economy will grow by 1.3% in 2017, while Russia’s economic development ministry put the figure at 2%. … noticeably in the last two months … both real disposable incomes and construction activity [have been] improving. …” Click […]

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NEWSLINK: “Cold weather hits Russian economy in May but recovery still on track” – bne Intellinews

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“Russia’s statistics agency released a slew of numbers for June and revised the May numbers. The bottom line is while the economy took a hit from the bad weather in May, the recovery is broadly on track and life is starting to look better for the man in the street after two years of grinding pain. Real disposable incomes and […]

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Russia Caught Between Economic Decline and Potentially Explosive Demographic Change

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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, July 5, 2017) Russia’s economic development ministry says that the country’s GDP growth will be approximately half of one percent lower each year because of projected declines in the number of workers in Russia in the coming decades, a decline that the ministry says must be fought by increasing immigration. But any […]

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Kremlin’s Claims about Economic Growth Rest on Three Weak Reeds, Russian Experts Say

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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 29, 2017) Independent Russian economists say that claims by Moscow officials concerning the supposed growth in Russia’s GDP do not correspond to reality, Russian experts say. Instead, they reflect some statistical sleight of hand, the low base from which any change is calculated, and even the anomalously cold weather of recent […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Beyond the Recession, More Problems Await Russia” – Strafor

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“As the Russian economy slowly pulls out of recession, low oil prices will keep it stagnant for years to come. Nonetheless, the recovery, and the return of foreign investment, will alleviate some of the Kremlin’s concerns about the economic sanctions against it.  The Russian government, meanwhile, will grow increasingly worried about the people’s economic hardships as gubernatorial and presidential elections approach. […]

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Government forecast for annual GDP growth of 1.5% in 2018-2020 does not meet president’s goal – Belousov

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MOSCOW. April 17 (Interfax) – The government’s forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2018-2020 of 1.5% a year under the baseline scenario does not meet the goal set by the president of achieving growth higher than the global average in 2019-2020, presidential aide Alexander Belousov told journalists. The government forecast for 2% GDP growth in 2017 is “the maximum possible […]

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RUSSIALINK RBTH: “Russia’s economy needs a recipe for growth; The country’s economy has left the recession, but growth rates are still low. Will Russia be able to return to the high pre-crisis indicators?”

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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – SERGEI ALEXASHENKO, SPECIAL TO RBTH – April 13, 2017) The author is a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution (Washington). In 1993-1998 he was deputy finance minister and deputy chairman of the Russian Central Bank. The Russian economy has hauled itself out of the recession – Rosstat, Russia’s statistics agency, the Economy Ministry, […]

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Russian Economy Crawled to Growth With Recession in Rearview

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas – March 31, 2017) Russia’s economy returned to growth at the end of 2016, turning the page on seven consecutive quarters of contraction that laid waste to the middle class after oil prices crashed. Gross domestic product gained 0.3 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter after a decline of 0.4 percent […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s economy grows at $40 per barrel oil; Russia’s Central Bank last week said appetite was low for an increase in lending rates” – UPI/Daniel J. Graeber

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The Russian economy will be on the positive side of growth even if the price of crude oil falls to $40 per barrel … [Central Bank Gov. Elvira Nabiullina] said. … The number of economic sectors expected to expand this year is not much greater than those in contraction, but losers are outnumbered. Much … depends on the price of […]

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Russian Government Named Biggest Threat to Competitive Economy

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – February 8, 2017) Russia’s Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has named the state the biggest threat to healthy competition in the Russian economy. The agency is now asking President Vladimir Putin to sign a presidential decree reducing the government’s role in key economic sectors over the next two years, the Vedomosti newspaper reported Wednesday. The decree […]

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Russia Nears End of Recession as GDP Shrinks Less Than Forecast

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas – February 1, 2017) Russia edged closer to exiting its longest recession in almost two decades as mining, manufacturing and agriculture added to stabilizing oil prices to steady the economy of the world’s biggest energy exporter. Gross domestic product contracted 0.2 percent last year after an upwardly revised decline of 2.8 percent in 2015, […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russian retail slump clouds forecasts for economic recovery” – Reuters

File Photo of Older Russian Woman Shopping in Grocery Store

Russian retail sales fell more than expected in December, official data showed on Wednesday, challenging the government’s optimistic predictions for an imminent economic recovery. Retail sales are the largest contributor to Russian gross domestic product and have suffered steep falls since the economy entered a deep slump in 2014, when oil prices collapsed and the West imposed sanctions over the […]

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World Bank Sees 1.5 Percent GDP Growth In Russia For 2017

World Bank Building

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – January 11, 2017) The World Bank is predicting 1.5 percent growth in Russia’s gross domestic product in 2017 and sees a gain of 1.7 percent in 2018 and 1.8 percent the following year, helped by increases in commodity prices. Russia’s projected GDP growth follows an estimated 0.6 percent contraction in 2016 and a 3.7 percent contraction […]

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IMF: Russian Economy Will Contract 0.6 Percent in 2016, Recover In 2017

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(RFE/RL – rferl.org – November 30, 2016) The International Monetary Fund said the Russian economy should continue to contract this year, with gross domestic product dropping 0.6 percent, but says it will begin recovering in 2017. The projections from the Washington-based IMF, issued November 29 after a team visited Moscow earlier this month, were roughly in line with other Russian […]

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How the Russian Economy Hit Rock Bottom

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Alexandra Prokopenko – November 17, 2016) The decline of the Russian economy has slowed, according to the State Statistics Service. The Economic Development Ministry has stated that gross domestic product rose by just 0.1 percent from the second to the third quarter of 2016. However, it is still too early to talk about a recovery […]

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NEWSWATCH: “World Bank Improves Russia Economic Outlook, Sees 1.5 Percent GDP Growth in 2017” – Reuters

World Bank Building

… the World Bank said …. Russian gross domestic product will contract by 0.6 percent … oil prices are projected to recover to an average of $55 per barrel in 2017 [and] the Russian economy is expected to bottom out in the second half of this year. The World Bank sees it growing by 1.5 percent in 2017 and 1.7 […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s renewed might rests on weak economic foundations. Putin bravado does not extend to modernisation of the economy” – Financial Times/Neil Buckley

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… the gap between the image … Putin portrayed … and the reality was exposed by a sobering assessment of Russia’s economy by another senior official … further emphasised by a draft budget … envisaging a 27 per cent cut in defence spending …. the official … made it clear how Russia’s ambitions clash with its capabilities. … western sanctions […]

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Econ Ministry restores original GDP forecasts under baseline scenario – newspaper

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MOSCOW. Oct 18 (Interfax) – The Russian Economic Development Ministry has restored its original baseline GDP growth forecasts: 0.6% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, the newspaper Vedomosti reported, citing the final version of the forecast forwarded to the Finance Ministry, which will subsequently be submitted to the government together with the budget. The baseline scenario, which […]

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Russian economy unlikely to grow more than 1.5% annually in medium term – MinFin

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MOSCOW. Oct 7 (Interfax) – Internal structural problems and external conditions will limit Russia’s economic growth to 1.5% annually in the medium term, according to the Finance Ministry’s draft fiscal policy guidelines, posted on the State Duma Budget and Tax Committee’s website. The guidelines are based on the baseline scenario of the Economic Development Ministry’s socioeconomic development forecast for 2017 […]

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Recession ending, growth under way for Russian economy – Kudrin

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MOSCOW. Oct 4 (Interfax) – The recession in the Russian economy is ending with growth under way, but that growth will be gradual at first, Alexei Kudrin, head of the Center for Strategic Research, said. “This year we’ll still have decline of 0.6%, statistically, but next year we’ll have approximately 0.5-0.8% growth. I repeat, that is statistically not as much […]

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Russia’s economic growth depends on successful transformations – Medvedev

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MOSCOW. Oct 2 (Interfax) – Russia’s economic growth will depend on the success of structural transformations in the economy, which cannot be accomplished rapidly, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said. The sanctions and the external pressure on Russia “are bad, but these are not the main [factors],” he said in an interview with the Voskresnoye Vremya program aired by Channel One. […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russian PM expects modest economic growth in early 2017” – Reuters

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… Medvedev expects modest growth in the economy early 2017 …. The Russian economy has struggled following the introduction of international sanctions against Moscow in 2014 over its role in the Ukraine crisis. … According to a Reuters poll, Russian inflation will fall to just over 6 percent by the end of the year as monetary policy is kept tight, […]

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80% of Russians Feel Country’s Economic Decline

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 26, 2016) Some 82 percent of Russians can feel the effects of the country’s economic decline, the Kommersant newspaper reported Monday, citing a report by independent pollster the Levada Center. The number has risen from the 61 percent who felt the pinch back in the fall of 2014. Almost one in five respondents (17 […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Post-Election Economy: Down, But Not Out. Parliamentary elections are rapidly approaching, but this time politicians aren’t making any pie-in-the-sky promises.” – Moscow Times/Boris Grozovsky

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By any measure, the Russian economy is deep in a classic recession: GDP has dropped for the sixth consecutive quarter. If Russia had political competition, these elections would pose a challenge for both the ruling party and the opposition. But without real competition, politicians are under little pressure to lift the economy out of the current crisis. … * * […]

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Interfax: Russian economy in for slow, unsteady recovery – Central Bank

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MOSCOW. Sept 1 (Interfax) – The Russian economy an expect slow, unsteady recovery in the next few quarters, the Central Bank’s Research and Forecasting Department said in its latest Talking Trends bulletin. The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said in an initial estimate that GDP had fallen 0.6% year-on-year in Q2 2016. The Central Bank’s analysts said Rosstat’s data imply […]

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Experts Predict ‘Lost Decade’ For Russia’s Stagnating Economy

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A lack of dialogue on economic incentives could threaten future growth (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Alexandra Prokopenko, Margarita Papchenkova – August 19, 2016) #Russia’s #economy needs powerful external stimuli or fundamental domestic reform in order to avoid further stagnation, a report from the Centre of Development at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) has claimed. The country’s gross domestic […]

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Getting Each Other Wrong

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Maxim Trudolyubov, Senior Fellow, Editor-at-Large, Vedomosti Daily – June 14, 2016) Politicians have to walk the walk in order to be credible. This is even more true in today’s world, given the rise of populist demagoguery and the sorry state of trust between the most important players. The dialogue taking place between Russia, the U.S., […]

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Putin’s Core Support Begins to Waver; Working-class Russians hurt by recession look for someone to blame-in an election year

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Ragozin – June 9, 2016) Russia embarks on an almost two-year-long election season this summer that ends with a presidential contest in 2018. But unlike previous years, the country’s faltering economy has taken its toll on lower-income voters who blame the Duma and the cabinet for their plight. Five years ago, allegations of vote rigging […]

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Three ways out of Russia’s crisis: The plans on Putin’s table …. #RUSSIA

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Russian economists have proposed three programs to help the country get out of the crisis. They were presented to President Vladimir Putin at the session of the Economy Council on May 25. RBTH tries to understand the essence of each plan and how such proposals were realized in the past. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – ALEXEI LOSSAN, RBTH […]

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Was Russia’s First Bond Sale in 3 Years a Success?

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – May 26, 2016) [Chart here themoscowtimes.com/business/article/was-russias-first-bond-sale-in-3-years-a-success/570254.html] Bidding opened suddenly on the morning of May 23. After a three-year absence from international markets, and with very little warning, Russia announced it wished to borrow billions of dollars. The Finance Ministry sought to help finance a yawning budget deficit caused by the low price […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russian economic slump shows further signs of easing” – Reuters

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Russia’s GDP is still estimated to fall anywhere between 0.2 percent and 1.5 percent in 2016, depending on estimates, but … recent economic activity … showed that the slump continued to ease and fourth-quarter GDP might be positive. Retail sales, a barometer of domestic consumer demand, were down 4.8 percent, but the fall was less than the 5.8 percent seen […]

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Economy Minister Says Russia Out of Recession More Than Six Months

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – May 20, 2016) The Russian economy has been out of recession for more than six months, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said during a briefing at the Russia-ASEAN summit on Friday, the TASS news agency reported. Russia’s GDP may perform better than the official forecast, which predicted a decline of 0.2 percent, Ulyukayev said, attributing […]

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Russia’s Economy Shows Signs Of Stabilization In First Quarter

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(RFE/RL – rferl.org – May 17, 2016) Russia’s economy contracted by less than expected in the first quarter of 2016 in a sign it may be stabilizing. The Russian state statistics service said on May 16 that the economy declined by 1.2 percent from a year earlier, after falling by 3.8 percent in the final quarter of 2015. Russia’s economy […]

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Russians Face Sustained Declines in Standard of Living for the Foreseeable Future, Economist Says

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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, May 14, 2016) Dmitry Prokofyev, a St. Petersburg economist, says that barring an unexpected shock, Russia faces declines of its GDP of 1.0 – 1.5 percent a year for the foreseeable future, a trend that will exacerbate differences between life in the megalopolises which may improve somewhat and life elsewhere which will […]

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Russian Economy Shrank Less Than Forecast as Growth Seen Closer

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas – May 16, 2016) Russia’s economy contracted less than forecast in the first quarter, leaving it closer to growth than at any time since it slid into recession last year. Gross domestic product fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier after a decline of 3.8 percent in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics […]

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Russia’s Economy Is Tanking, So Why Is Putin Smiling?

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Evgenia Pismennaya, Anna Andrianova – February 29, 2016) With Russia mired in the longest recession in two decades, there hasn’t been a lot of good economic news lately. But there’s one indicator that’s looking up, and it’s the one that matters most to Vladimir Putin: His hard-currency reserves. The central bank held $379 billion in foreign […]

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Economic Minister says moderate economic growth possible in Russia in 2016

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(Interfax – February 2, 2016) Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev does not rule out the possibility of the Russian economy shifting to moderate growth in 2016. “A shift is already possible this year, perhaps, to moderate, recovery growth in the economy for the time being. We should be prepared for this,” Ulyukayev said at a ministry meeting on Feb. 2. […]

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Kudrin: Sanctions against Russia could start to ease late 2016-early 2017

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(Interfax – January 22, 2016) Relations between Russia and the West are normalizing and sanctions will be lifted, Alexei Kudrin, a former Russian finance minister, said. “I’m sure the sanctions will start to soften at the end of this year or start of next year. Nobody in Russia wants to keep up confrontation. I think the Minsk accords will be […]

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Russia identifies economic backwardness as national security threat

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(Interfax – January 19, 2016) Russia’s new national security strategy identifies the key threats to the country. The main threats to national security in the economic sphere are the low competitiveness of the Russian economy and its continuing dependence on raw material exports, Sergey Vakhrukov, aide to the secretary of the Russian Security Council, told journalists on 19 January, as […]

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TRANSCRIPT: [Putin] at National Entrepreneurs’ Forum Small Business – National Idea?

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(Kremlin.ru – January 20, 2016) Vladimir Putin took part in the plenary session of the National Entrepreneurs’ Forum Small Business – National Idea? The forum examined issues such as support for small and medium-sized enterprises and measures to encourage business activity. The forum, organised by the OPORA Russia national public association of small and medium-sized enterprises, is taking place in […]

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Putin urges government to be ready for any economic scenario

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(Interfax – January 13, 2016) Russian President Vladimir Putin has told the government to closely monitor changes in the economic situation and be ready for any turn. “We should be ready for any scenario,” he said at a meeting with Cabinet members. The president drew attention to how the situation changes on the markets. “I know that the government has […]

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