Is Russia the World’s 5th Largest Economy in GDP, PPP?

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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff and Associates – Aug. 16, 2023) “Russia becomes Europe’s biggest economy.” That’s the headline that Kremlin-funded RT’s editors put on a story they ran Aug. 4. The story went on to trumpet that “Russia was among the world’s five largest economies and the largest in Europe in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) […]

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RUSSIALINK: “One Year On: How Russia’s Coronavirus Lockdown Hit the Economy” – Moscow Times

Covid-19 Coronavirus file photo, adapted from image at cdc.gov

Russia avoided mass unemployment and a sharp fall in GDP but has one of the world’s highest excess death tolls […]

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Is Crimea Now Costing Russia More Than It Is Worth?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

… Not only did that aggressive breach of international law trigger Western sanctions … the authorities in Moscow also never gave the public an honest estimate of just how much money would need to be spent, nor for how long […]

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Western Sanctions Have Had ‘Outsized Impact’ On Russian Companies, Economist Says

File Photo of G7 Leaders at Summit, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

… Russian corporations have lost almost $100 billion since sanctions were imposed … following the annexation of Crimea … equivalent to about 4.2 percent of the country’s economy [then] […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Pandemic to cost Russia 9% of GDP in 2020-2021 – Siluanov” – Interfax

Anton Siluanov file photo

Measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic and cover the budget revenue shortfall will cost Russia around 9% of its GDP in 2020-2021, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Upgrades Economic Outlook on Strong Data; The hit to GDP is expected to be less severe than first thought.” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Aug. 31, 2020) The Russian government expects the coronavirus to inflict significantly less damage on the country’s economy than it first feared. The Economy Ministry is now predicting GDP will fall by 3.9% in 2020, up from its previous forecast of a 5% contraction, Kommersant reported Monday. Russia’s economy has not taken as big a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Economy Shrank 8.5% in Second Quarter – Official Data; Fall in GDP is less severe than government and Central Bank feared” – AFP

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“Russia’s economy contracted … 8.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, the state statistics agency [Rosstat] said … in its first assessment of the impact of … coronavirus and an oil crisis. GDP fell in ‘all areas of the economy except agriculture’ … Rosstat … said …, with passenger transport down 79% and the services industry down 37.2% The sharp drop […]

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Former Russian Finance Minister Says Economy ‘In Stagnation,’ Needs More Government Spending

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A respected former Russian finance minister said the nation’s economy is stagnating and the government needs to invest more in education and health in order to drive growth […]

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RUSSIALINK: “IMF forecasts deeper slump for Russian, global economies” – Interfax

File Photo of IMF Acronym on Wall Below Row of Circular Lights, adapted from image at state.gov by Steven C. Welsh :: www.stevencwelsh.com :: www.stevencwelsh.info

MOSCOW. June 25 (Interfax) – The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its outlook for the Russian economy in 2020 and now expects the country to see a slump of 6.6% instead of the 5.5% drop it forecast in April. The global economy will also contract by more than previously thought, by 4.9% instead of 3%, the IMF said in its […]

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How Bad are Things in Russia? For First Time in 15 Years, Moscow Doesn’t Publish Monthly GDP Figures

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 13, 2020) For the first time since 2005, the Russian finance ministry did not issue monthly GDP data for May, an indication of just how bad the figures almost certainly would have been and a sign that not publishing data may become a trend in Putin’s Russia (finanz.ru/novosti/aktsii/minfin-zasekretil-dannye-po-vvp-rossii-za-may-1029303651 and rbc.ru/economics/12/06/2020/5ee268459a79476bd86bbda3). Among […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s GDP shrinks by 20% in April, but government maintains a triple surplus” – bne Intellinews

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“… Russia’s nominal GDP shrank … 28%, of which two-thirds was due to the nation-wide lockdown … another third … due to … oil prices, the Ministry of Finance said …. The real contraction of the economy in April could be 20%, according to the Ministry …. [T]he government has reported … surplus[es] [for] the trade balance, currency account and […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kudrin doubts 1.9% economic growth forecast due to coronavirus” – Interfax

Coronavirus File Photo adapted from image at cdc.gov

MOSCOW. Feb 18 (Interfax) – Alexei Kudrin, the chairman of the Russian Accounts Chamber, said he was doubtful about the government’s 1.9% economic growth forecast and that adverse factors like the coronavirus needed to be taken into account. “The measures in fulfillment of the [president’s] address will produce an additional effect on economic growth. Right now I hesitate to say […]

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RUSSIALINK: “State-Run Bank Says Putin Will Fail to Meet Economic Targets by 2024; Russia will fall short of most of the goals outlined in the president’s $400 billion National Projects program” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – Nov. 20, 2019) Jake covers business & economics for The Moscow Times. President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to meet most of his flagship economic and development goals during his final term, a new report from a government-owned bank said Wednesday. The National Projects program – a $400 billion package of investments covering […]

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RUSSIALINK: “What’s Next for Russia’s Economy? Analysts predict low growth, low inflation and a strong stock market in the final two months of the year” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – November 1, 2019) Jake Cordell covers business & economics for The Moscow Times. A fresh roster of forecasts and data on the Russian economy suggests slow growth and low inflation coupled with robust corporate performance will mark the final two months of the year. Meanwhile, economy-watchers remain fixed on a crucial Central […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Experts Raise Questions Over Strong Russian Official Economic Statistics; Analysts struggle to explain an unexpected jump in real incomes and GDP recorded by the official Russian statistics agency” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – October 18, 2019) Economists have raised questions over a surprisingly healthy batch of economic data released by the Russian statistics agency Rosstat. Statistics published Thursday evening showed an unexpected and significant jump in real disposable incomes of an annual rate of 3% in the third quarter of the year, off the back […]

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RUSSIALINK: “World Bank Cuts Russian Growth Forecast” – Moscow Times

World Bank Building

Economy expected to expand by just 1% in 2019 amid weak investment, low consumer confidence and international sanctions (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Oct. 9, 2019) The World Bank has become the latest organization to cut its outlook for the Russian economy, predicting growth of just 1% in 2019. A host of domestic and international factors are holding back the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s ‘Shadow Economy’ Is Nearly 13% of GDP, Reports Say” – Moscow Times

Hands Opening Envelope Containing Cash

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – August 29, 2019) More than $175 billion had circulated in Russia’s shadow economy in 2017, according to the latest available official data analyzed by the RBC news website on Thursday. Russia’s State Statistics Service (Rosstat) defines the shadow economy as off-the-books salaries, unofficial employment and informal sales, but not criminal activity. Financial authorities say the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “IMF Cuts Forecast for Russian 2019 GDP Growth to 1.2%, Calls for Reforms” – Reuters

File Photo of IMF Acronym on Wall Below Row of Circular Lights, adapted from image at state.gov by Steven C. Welsh :: www.stevencwelsh.com :: www.stevencwelsh.info

“The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2019 to 1.2% from 1.4% after a weak first quarter, saying broader reforms would be needed for stronger growth. Without deeper structural reforms, long-term growth is projected to settle around 1.8%, the IMF said …. Priority should be given to creating a more vibrant private sector and reducing […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Own Government Warns His Campaign Promises Can’t Be Met” – Bloomberg/ Evgenia Pismennaya, Anna Andrianova, Ilya Arkhipov

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“… Putin’s own government doesn’t believe his ambitious campaign pledges to improve living standards are attainable. Officials have analyzed the $400 billion [National Projects] spending program … and found that the majority of targets will be impossible to achieve before … Putin’s term [ends] in 2024 …. Putin and … Medvedev have been briefed about the findings …. confirm[ing] conclusions […]

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Russia’s National Projects: Economic Reboot or Mucky Bog?

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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Ben Aris – May 30, 2019) Ben Aris is editor in chief of bne Intellinews. He has been covering Russia as a journalist since 1993. While Moscow has been aggressively advancing its interests on the international stage, Russia’s stagnating economy means the country risks gradually falling behind the rest of the world and possibly facing […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Economists Forecast 6th Year of Falling Incomes for Russians” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – May 29, 2019) Russians’ incomes will fall for a sixth consecutive year in 2019, experts from Moscow’s Higher School of Economics (HSE) and Russia’s Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) said. Russia’s Economic Development Ministry has projected real incomes to reverse the five-year slump and grow by 1 percent in 2019, based on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Economy Gives Putin Reasons Not to Extend OPEC+ Deal” – Bloomberg/ Olga Tanas

Oil Well file photo

“The OPEC+ pact is hurting the Russian economy, potentially giving … Putin a reason not to agree on an extension …. While higher crude prices can bring … additional revenue, production cuts are weighing on one of the country’s biggest industries. … [Putin] may have to weigh his desire for faster economic growth against the benefits of his alliance with […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s GDP growth slows in 1Q19, challenging the policy framework” – bne Intellinews/ Dmitri Dolgin (Russia ING)

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“Russian GDP growth slowed from 2.7% year on year in 4Q18 to just 0.5% y/y in 1Q19, well below expectations. Unlike most commentators, we attribute this slowdown to a pause in the state CAPEX rather than to the VAT hike. We also believe a policy response is more likely to come from the Finance Ministry rather than the Central Bank […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Officials get somber on GDP growth” – BMB Russia/ Bear Market Brief

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“… Oreshkin cited … one-off factors such as an increase in oil production and a dangerous boom in consumer borrowing as unsustainable sources of 2018 growth. … tr[ying] to refocus the discussion on structural reforms …. [and] a massive investment drive via national projects in infrastructure, demography, health, education, and exports …. Nevertheless, to the extent that the high 2018 […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “More controversy as Rosstat upgrades Russian GDP growth to a six-year high” – bne Intellinews/Ben Aris

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“More questions were raised over the veracity of the Russian State Statistical Service’s (Rosstat’s) results after it upgraded its estimates of growth in the construction sector that led to a revision of 2018 growth from 1.6% to 2.3% – the best result in six years …. Russia is emerging from a ‘silent crisis’ … caused by the collapse of oil […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russians’ Real Incomes Set to Fall Again in 2019” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Dec. 27, 2018) Real incomes are set to drop once more next year, dragged by slower growth in real wages and higher spending, according to the latest forecast from Moscow’s Higher School of Economics (HSE). Russia is on track to see off 2018 as the fifth consecutive year of falling real disposable personal incomes. A […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kudrin renews push for tough policy talk” – Bear Market Brief

Alexei Kudrin file photo

“… Kudrin, went on record with RBK ahead of today’s ‘Russia Calling’ economic forum, asserting that in the last decade Russia has experienced economic stagnation unseen since the Second World War. He appears to be continuing his search for a public, honest discussion of foreign policy. … … annualized GDP growth at 1% over the last ten years … predat[ing] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s financial authorities are putting the economy on an ‘economic war’ footing as sanctions bite” – bne Intellinews/Vadim Dumes/Ben Aris

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“The sanctions[-]based assault on Russia by the U.S. and its expanding sanctions regime is starting to take its toll as the Russian government and financial authorities [are scrambling] to manage the damage … affecting everything from corporate profits to foreign currency reserves. Earlier this month … The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) said it will stop its regular foreign currency purchases […]

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NEWSWATCH: “How realistic are Putin’s promises to massively increase social spending?” – bne Intellinews/Vadim Dumesh, Ben Aris

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“The militarism of … Putin’s … state of the nation speech on March 1 has overshadowed the economic part … set[ting] out the Kremlin’s development strategy … remain[ing] merely declarative and if anything show[ing] the lack of consensus between the Kremlin, government and policy advisers … [with]the Kremlin … attempting to fudge policy to keep all the various factions – […]

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Interfax: Russia could have budget surplus of 1.2% of GDP, NWF could grow 3.5 trillion rubles in 2018 – Econ Ministry

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MOSCOW. Feb 13 (Interfax) – Russia could have a budget surplus of 1.2% of GDP in 2018 if current oil prices persist, the Russian Economic Development Ministry said in its latest monthly monitoring report. The National Welfare Fund (NWF) could in that case grow by 3.5 trillion rubles or around $60 billion at the current rate, it said. The NWF […]

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NEWSLINK: “The Low Energy Superpower: Russia’s Dim Growth Prospects” – Bear Market Blog/Joseph Webster

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“Few Russians are nostalgic for the nightmarish 1990s, a time when GDP fell by approximately 40%, inflation skyrocketed, and life expectancies tumbled. While history doesn’t repeat itself, it often rhymes: Russia won’t relive the nightmarish 1990s, but the pattern of declining living standards in contemporary Russia increasingly resembles the last decade of the 20th century. Russia will likely suffer a […]

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NEWSLINK: “Russia faces 6 more years of stagnation under Putin” – CNN/ Alanna Petroff

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“Russian President Vladimir Putin looks set to win re-election in March, extending his stay in the Kremlin to 2024. For Russia’s economy, that likely means six more years of anemic growth. …”

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NEWSWATCH: “Russian economy suddenly shrinks in November” – Reuters

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“Russia’s economy unexpectedly contracted in November, hit by a drop in industrial production, the economy ministry said …. Gross domestic product shrank 0.3 percent year on year in November, the economy ministry said, contrasting with analysts’ consensus call for a 1.5 percent growth. Russia’s oil-dependent economy was on the mend in 2017 after two years of recession, triggered by a […]

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Recession Recoveries In Russia, Brazil Help Lift World Growth To Six-Year High

File Photo of UN Building with Flags

(Article ©2017 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – December 12, 2017 – also appeared at rferl.org/a/recession-recoveries-russia-brazil-help-lift-world-growth-six-year-high-3-percent-2011/28911154.html) World economic growth rose this year to 3 percent, the strongest rate since 2011, aided by recoveries from recession in Russia, Brazil, Argentina, and NIgeria, the United Nations has estimated. In its annual report on global growth on December 11, the UN […]

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Russia’s Optimistic GDP Projections Fall Shy of Targets; The government’s GDP target was undermined by disappointing third-quarter GDP numbers and industrial output stumbling in the fall

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – November 29, 2017) [Text with chart themoscowtimes.com/articles/russias-optimistic-gdp-projection-falls-short-of-targets-59734] Russia’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2017 and 2018 in the latest outlook published by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Nov. 28. The OECD’s optimistic forecast is almost in line with 2-2.1 percent official government’s target, which was recently undermined […]

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Interfax: Russia’s defense spending tops 5.3% of GDP, near $70 bln – PwC

File Photo of Close-Up of Line of Russian Soldiers in Dress Uniforms for Parade

MOSCOW. Nov 15 (Interfax) – Russia ranks seventh among the world’s major defense-industry players, with defense expenditures totaling $69.2 billion, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) said in a statement regarding its second Global Defense Perspectives report. In the current rating, Russia occupies seventh place; its defense expenditures amount to 5.32% of GDP and total $69.2 billion. It has moved up one position since […]

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NEWSWATCH: “GDP growth in Russia disappointingly slows” – bne Intellinews

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“Russia’s GDP growth disappointed on the down side as the July-September numbers came in well below the government expectation at 1.2%, making the annual GDP growth of 1.8%. The government had been expecting 2.2%. * * * … [and] Russia’s GDP growth has been achieved against the backdrop of rather shaky industrial output. …” Click here for: “GDP growth in Russia […]

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Interfax: Russia’s GDP growth to exceed 2% in 2017 – Medvedev

Dmitri Medvedev file photo

MANILA. Nov 13 (Interfax) – The Russian government is expecting 2017’s GDP growth to exceed 2%, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a session of the ASEAN Business and Investment Summit 2017 (ABIS 2017). “We saw positive changes both last and this year, and our recovery growth has been rather good. We are expecting the Russian GDP to increase […]

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NEWSWATCH: “‘No miracles’: labor shortage set to hit Russia’s GDP” – Reuters/Denis Pinchuk, Maria Kiselyova

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“A dearth of young people joining Russia’s workforce because of a low birth rate will shave several percent off potential economic growth in the next five to six years, Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin said. … the labour shortage made it hard for technology companies, among others, to recruit staff they need …. * * * ‘To a large extent economic growth […]

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Central Bank analysts lower Russian GDP growth forecast in Q3-Q4 on weak industrial production data

Central Bank of Russia file photo

MOSCOW. Sept 6 (Interfax) – Central Bank analysts have lowered their forecast for Russian GDP growth in Q3 from 0.6% to 0.4%-0.5% on a quarterly basis excluding seasonality, the Central Bank’s Research and Forecasting Department said in its bulletin Talking Trends. The estimate for October-December 2017 was also lowered from 0.6% to 0.4%. “The main sources of the downward revision […]

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Interfax: Russian GDP could grow more than 2% in Aug, 2017 – Oreshkin

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PARIS. Aug 29 (Interfax) – Russian GDP growth could quicken to more than 2% in August, Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin told reporters in Paris. The economy could also grow more than 2% for 2017 as a whole, he said following a meeting with French business leaders. “We expect growth [year-on-year GDP growth] will return to more than 2% as […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Russian economy boss: sanctions no longer bite” – AP

Truck at Russian Border Crossing

“… Maxim Oreshkin … [said that] the Russian economy is on track to grow at least 2 percent this year. That would be a first after 2014, when the economy sank into recession driven by sinking oil prices and sanctions over Russian actions in Ukraine. … he said, ‘we see more willingness on the Asian side to work with us.’ He wouldn’t […]

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NEWSWATCH: “IMF says Russia’s economy is gradually recovering” – bne Intellinews

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“The IMF projects real growth of GDP in Russia at the level of 1.4% in 2017 …. According to the World Bank, the Russian economy will grow by 1.3% in 2017, while Russia’s economic development ministry put the figure at 2%. … noticeably in the last two months … both real disposable incomes and construction activity [have been] improving. …” Click […]

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NEWSLINK: “Cold weather hits Russian economy in May but recovery still on track” – bne Intellinews

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“Russia’s statistics agency released a slew of numbers for June and revised the May numbers. The bottom line is while the economy took a hit from the bad weather in May, the recovery is broadly on track and life is starting to look better for the man in the street after two years of grinding pain. Real disposable incomes and […]

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Russia Caught Between Economic Decline and Potentially Explosive Demographic Change

Russian Migrant Workers file photo

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, July 5, 2017) Russia’s economic development ministry says that the country’s GDP growth will be approximately half of one percent lower each year because of projected declines in the number of workers in Russia in the coming decades, a decline that the ministry says must be fought by increasing immigration. But any […]

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Kremlin’s Claims about Economic Growth Rest on Three Weak Reeds, Russian Experts Say

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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 29, 2017) Independent Russian economists say that claims by Moscow officials concerning the supposed growth in Russia’s GDP do not correspond to reality, Russian experts say. Instead, they reflect some statistical sleight of hand, the low base from which any change is calculated, and even the anomalously cold weather of recent […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Beyond the Recession, More Problems Await Russia” – Strafor

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“As the Russian economy slowly pulls out of recession, low oil prices will keep it stagnant for years to come. Nonetheless, the recovery, and the return of foreign investment, will alleviate some of the Kremlin’s concerns about the economic sanctions against it.  The Russian government, meanwhile, will grow increasingly worried about the people’s economic hardships as gubernatorial and presidential elections approach. […]

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