Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield,” according to WP editors. “That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine to Putin: You cut our power, we kneecap your biggest economic driver” – Politico

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“‘It would only be fair,’ Galushchenko says of attacking Russian oil and gas in response to possible attacks against Ukraine’s grid this winter.” “Ukraine is open to the possibility of attacking Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure if Moscow ramps up its targeting of Ukraine’s electric system this winter, Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko said …. Galushchenko … said Russia has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack” – Washington Post

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“Roman Chervinsky, a colonel in Ukraine’s special operations forces, was integral to the brazen sabotage operation, say people familiar with planning.” “… Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-old colonel who served in Ukraine’s special operations forces, [reportedly] was the ‘coordinator’ of … Nord Stream [sabotage] operation … logistics and support for a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 12-20, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. had intelligence of Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream project – Washington Post” – Reuters

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“The United States learned of a Ukrainian plan to attack the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines three months before they were damaged … The Washington Post reported … citing [online] leaked information …. [washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/] The CIA [reportedly] learned last June, through a European spy agency, that a six-person team of Ukrainian special operations forces intended to blow up the Russia-to-Germany […]

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Russia in Review, May 26-June 2, 2023 – 4 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: Russia set to mothball damaged Nord Stream gas pipelines – sources” – Reuters

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“Russia’s ruptured undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines [reportedly] are set to be sealed up and mothballed as there are no immediate plans to repair or reactivate them …. Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, each consisting of two pipes, were built by … Gazprom to pump 110 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas a year to Germany under […]

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Russia’s Oil And Gas Revenues Are In Decline

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan. 19, 2023) Russia’s current account surplus hit a quarterly record in the second quarter of 2022 as its imports fell and the value of its exports soared. Since that record quarter, Russia’s current account surplus has dropped every quarter as gas exports dried up and oil prices fell. Russia’s energy export revenues are set […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.” – Foreign Policy/ Agathe Demarais

File Image of Artist's Conception of Globe with Curved Connecting Lines of Light Passing Through Space, adapted from image at fincen.gov

“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Energy Dependence Ties Europe’s Hands in U.S.-Russia Crisis” – WSJ

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“Europe gets almost one-third of its natural gas from Russia, limiting its ability to penalize Moscow.” Europe’s growing dependence on Russian gas and oil is limiting [European] room to maneuver … and making [Europe] highly vulnerable … [if] escalation [occurs in the crisis with Russia]. … Western officials accuse [Russia] of withholding extra supplies in recent months to force European […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Expels Some U.S. Diplomats in Latest Tit-for-Tat Action” – WSJ

File Photo of U.S. Embassy Moscow, with Russian Foreign Ministry Building in Distance

“Russia indicates that the move was in retaliation for Washington’s expulsion of more than 50 Russian diplomats.” “Russia ordered U.S. Embassy staff … in Moscow for more than three years to leave the country by Jan. 31 … [even as] diplomats [will soon] hold talks to address the worsening [U.S.-Russian] relationship …. Foreign ministry officials … indicated that the decision […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Gazprom Reports Record Profits as Gas Prices Soar” – Moscow Times

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Europe receives a third of its gas supplies from Russia and has seen energy prices surge to record highs in recent months. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Nov. 29, 2021) Russian gas giant Gazprom on Monday said its net income rose to a record 582 billion rubles ($7.8 billion) in the third quarter on the back of soaring gas prices […]

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The Real Reason Russia Isn’t Pumping More Gas

Gas Facility file photo

(Oilprice.com – Alex Kimani – Nov. 15, 2021) While plenty of traders have accused Russia of withholding natural gas from Europe, it is now looking like the natural gas giant simply cannot significantly increase exports Natural gas prices originally fell when Putin promised to open the taps, but prices are climbing again now that Russia is failing to book additional […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kremlin sees no political motivation behind German regulator’s decision to suspend Nord Stream 2 certification” – Interfax

Dmitry Peskov file photo adapted from image at kremlin.ru/wikimedia commons

MOSCOW. Nov 17 (Interfax) – The Kremlin does not see a political motive behind the German regulator’s decision to suspend certification of Nord Stream 2 until the establishment of a subsidiary of Nord Stream 2 AG to operate the national part of the gas pipeline, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “Absolutely not,” Peskov told reporters in response to the relevant […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Lukashenko threatens to cut gas supplies to Yamal-Europe gas pipeline if EU imposes new sanctions, promises to send refugees dry firewood” – bne Intellinews

Alyaksandr Lukeshenko file photo, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“… Lukashenko has threatened to cut off [Belarusian] gas transit to Europe  … shutting down the Yamal-Europe pipeline if the EU imposes new sanctions …. The Yamal-Europe pipeline is part of the northern route that also includes … Nord Stream 1 and 2 … and transits gas from Russia’s Arctic Yamal fields via Belarus to Poland and on to Germany. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia increases gas flows to Europe, pushing down prices” – Reuters

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“… On Tuesday, Russia[‘s] Gazprom … said it had started to refill its European gas storage. … push[ing] down spot prices in the region although analysts said Moscow would have to do more to ease concerns in Europe to lead to a more significant drop in prices. … Gas prices have risen this year because of factors including low gas […]

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Europe Considers Tapping “Cushion Gas” As Market Continues To Tighten

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(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – Nov. 7, 2021) Europe is experiencing the lowest level of gas in storage in a decade just ahead of the winter sent natural gas prices spiking to record highs last month The very tight European gas market may find relief from the supply crunch if it taps part of the so-called cushion gas. Increased Russian […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Russian exports hold sway over European and British gas prices” – Reuters/ Susanna Twidale

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“Benchmark European gas prices jumped 15% … after a major pipeline … from Russia began sending flows eastwards. … Europe relies on Russia for around 35% of its natural gas[,] [t]he bulk … through pipelines including Yamal … through Belarus and Poland to Germany, Nord Stream … to Germany, and pipelines … through Ukraine. … Last year [Russian] gas exports […]

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Infrastructure in Russia’s Arctic: Environmental Impact and Considerations

File Photo of Arctic Fox Running Across Snow, adapted from image at USGS.gov, with photo credit to Mike Lockart and USGS

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Kennan Cable No. 73 – Thomas Eric Rotnem – Nov. 2021) Professor of Political Science and Associate Director, School of Government and International Affairs, Kennesaw State University In 2007, Russia signaled its commitment to pursue territorial claims in the Arctic by planting a titanium Russian flag on the polar seabed. Now, Russia is moving well […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Nord Stream 2 Is Still Months From Easing Europe’s Gas Woes” – Bloomberg

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“… Nord Stream 2 may need a few more months to clear remaining red tape … to help ease Europe’s energy crunch. The Baltic Sea project … has raised concerns over the Kremlin’s control of [European] energy supplies … [It] is complete [but is] … awaiting certification from national and [EU] authorities. … Putin has pledged to step up gas […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Rosneft announces energy transition strategy as climate conference approaches” – bne Intellinews

File Photo of Rosneft and Russian Flags Next to Rosneft Banner

“Oil giant Rosneft announced the creation of a plan to transition to green energy, but also warned that fossil fuels would never fully be replaced.” “Russian state oil major Rosneft is developing a new strategy centred on the transition to renewable energy resources. … [according to] CEO Igor Sechin …. However, … [he] stress[ed] that oil and gas would continue […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Natural Gas Prices Fall on Putin Order for More Russian Exports” – Wall Street Journal

Gas Flame file photo

“The Russian president told the state energy giant to pump more fuel to Germany and Austria to ease a supply crunch.” “… European gas prices are more than five times as high as they were a year ago even after Thursday’s slide, hurting consumers and holding back economies’ post-pandemic recoveries. The continent’s stores of gas [reportedly] are 15% below the […]

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U.S. Official Tells Europe Not To Waive Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Approval Process

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A senior U.S. state department official has warned Europe against bowing to Russian pressure and waiving the lengthy process needed to approve Nord Stream 2, a controversial Baltic Sea natural gas pipeline to Germany […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Shows Its Growing Sway Over Global Energy Markets” – Wall Street Journal

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Moscow’s huge oil and gas reserves have given it more influence over Western and Chinese economies grappling with rising prices […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin blames low wind power output for gas crisis” – bne Intellinews

Gas Facility file photo

Russia has been criticized for exacerbating the gas crisis by withholding some supply – whether to put pressure on the EU to allow Nord Stream 2’s launch, or simply to drive up prices […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe’s energy crisis highlights dangers of reliance on Russia” – Atlantic Council

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“Europe is currently in the grip of an unfolding energy crisis that is sparking questions over the role of … Putin’s Russia in exploiting rising demand, low supply, and geopolitical unpredictability. … Natural gas prices have soared by 600% …. [M]arket volatility is hitting key economic areas across Europe, from fertilizer plants to the food industry and health sector. The […]

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Russia’s Energy Influence In Europe Is Growing

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(Oilprice.com – Haley Zaremba – Oct. 11, 2021) The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is playing a growing role in Russia’s energy influence in Europe. As the European energy crunch has intensified, Russia has not increased its supply to meet the region’s demand, in a move that many experts have interpreted as a form of “energy blackmail.” Increasing reliance on Moscow […]

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RUSSIA, Gas, WTO and other calamities

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Subject: RUSSIA, Gas, WTO and other calamities Date: Thu, 30 Sep 2021 From: Andrei Liakhov <gaffriloff@yahoo.co.uk> RUSSIA, Gas, WTO and other calamities By Andrei Liakhov This is the view of the prequel to the brewing problems in the European gas markets of someone who was a part of most of the events set out below or read the underlying documents […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Big Bounce: Russian gas amid market tightness” – Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

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“The big bounce in Russian gas production in 2021 has proven to be insufficient to meet the simultaneous spikes in demand at home and abroad. Russian gas output has risen robustly and has been close to its maximum productive capacities but the necessity to fill the depleted domestic gas storage facilities in Q3 2021 limited the availability of Russian gas […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, Belarus Agree on Economic Integration Pacts; The agreements, which cover trade, labor, currencies, taxes and energy, will deepen Moscow’s sway over its neighbor” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Belarus and Environs, adapted from images at cia.gov

“… Putin … [said] that in the end all 28 integration programs were approved. [Putin said that] [t]hey include the integration of currency systems, the principles of levying indirect taxes … the fight against terrorism … [and] the pricing of Russian energy resources, … that a document would be signed by Dec. 1, 2023, to create a single gas market […]

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Russia Says Ukraine Organized Gas Pipeline Attack In Crimea

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Sept. 7, 2021) Russia accused on Tuesday Ukraine’s military intelligence of having organized an attack on a natural gas pipeline in Crimea at the end of last month, in another escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kyiv. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine back in 2014, straining the bilateral relations between one of Europe’s key natural […]

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Europe Needs Nord Stream 2 More Than It Likes To Admit

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

Europe resents Russian gas for the influence it gives a country that the EU considers unfriendly, …, but … is increasingly thirsty for gas because … [last year’s] winter… drained its reserves. … [and] summer … LNG cargoes [got] diverted from Europe to Asia […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine feels the chill of Biden’s foreign policy” – Financial Times

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“Afghanistan withdrawal heightens Zelensky’s fears of dwindling support from Washington” “… Ukraine has fought an eight-year war against Russia and Russian-backed militants …. Yet even before the chaotic pullout from Kabul, alarm was spreading … over fears … [that] Biden wanted to focus more on other foreign policy issues, especially … China. The first warning sign … came … when […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Military Seeks to Outmuscle U.S. in Arctic” – Wall Street Journal

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“For Moscow it is the last geopolitical battleground where it holds the advantage over Washington and Beijing” “… [N]ew and refurbished bases [are] meant to service the Kremlin’s ambitions in the resource-rich Arctic. … combined to form a new military district … under … the Northern Fleet, Russia’s foremost Arctic naval force[] … [with fleet] headquarters … on the Kola […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Arctic-Superpower Jostling Heats Up as Russia Takes on Key Role” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Arctic Fox Running Across Snow, adapted from image at USGS.gov, with photo credit to Mike Lockart and USGS

“Russia’s Sergei Lavrov claimed this week that ‘this is our land and our waters’ as NATO allies boost military activity” “… Russian and U.S. diplomats … [signal] rising tensions between [powers] racing to seize Arctic resources …. Arctic Council [participants] weren’t due to discuss security. But … Russia’s … Sergei Lavrov declared … the Arctic ‘is our land and our […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine urges Congress to maintain sanctions on Nord Stream 2” – Financial Times

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“Completion of pipeline would be ‘victory for Russia’ and a ‘personal loss’ for Biden, says Zelensky.” “Ukraine has stepped up … pressure on Washington over the contentious Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, appealing to … Congress to maintain sanctions against the project. The Ukrainian parliament … overwhelmingly backed a resolution calling on U.S. lawmakers to override […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Russia and Brussels at war over energy” – Le Monde Diplomatique

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“The battle over natural gas: Worsening relations between Europe and Russia are reflected in tensions over energy, in which US demands, Russian and German interests, the EU’s neoliberal doctrine and the climate emergency all play a part.” “… The Russia-Ukraine conflict … the Nord Stream 2 pipeline  … and tensions … over offshore reserves near Cyprus, have put natural gas […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia: Foreign Policy and U.S. Relations [Excerpt]” – Congressional Research Service

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rise to leadership more than 20 years ago, tensions have increased steadily between Russia and the United States […]

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