(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – December 8, 2015) The Russian ruble has continued its slide to dramatic lows, falling to 69 against the U.S. dollar on Monday for the first time since September, according to news reports. The euro, too, reached a two-month high, climbing to 75 rubles on Monday evening, with Russian analysts linking the ruble’s downward spiral to […]
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MOSCOW. Dec 4 (Interfax) – Moody’s Investors Service’s decision to upgrade the rating outlook for Russian government bonds to stable from negative is an acknowledgement of the effectiveness of the Russian authorities’ fiscal and monetary policies, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters. “The upgrade of the outlook, made for the first time in a fairly long time, indicates recognition of […]
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Amid continuously falling incomes, debt help groups thrive as Russians turn to different solutions to repay loans. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – ANNA KUCHMA, RBTH – December 2, 2015) In the past year, arrears on loans have reached record levels. Borrowers are finding it more difficult to repay their loans due to the steep devaluation of the ruble […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Volodymyr Verbyany, Jake Rudnitsky – November 30, 2015) Your enemy’s bank is your friend. Or so Ukraine wants to believe after giving Russian banks a pass more than a year and a half into a separatist insurgency it blames on the Kremlin. Banks including state-run lenders sanctioned by the U.S. and the European Union have clung […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – November 26, 2015) [Charts here bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-26/putin-doesn-t-mind-oil-s-fall] Russia’s economic decline this year is often attributed to low oil prices. Yet Russia has performed considerably worse than most of its oil-exporting peers, so there must be another reason. Marek Dabrowski, co-founder of the Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw and a professor at […]
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The Wall Street Journal reports on the performance of Russian corporate bonds. From adversity comes opportunity. But given the degree of adversity facing Russia at the end of 2014—sanctions over Ukraine, plummeting oil prices, a collapsing currency—it is surprising quite how much of an investment opportunity it has turned out to be this year. Russian corporate bonds are the best […]
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(Interfax – November 21, 2015) Russia’s GDP would have been 1.5 percent higher if sanctions had not been imposed against Moscow, former Russian Finance Minister and Committee of Civil Initiatives Chairman Alexei Kudrin has said, pointing out that no positive effect from the sanctions has been seen in any industry. “The sanctions have considerably complicated the situation in the country. […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan- November 20, 2015) Alexei Lossan is the RBTH Central Desk editor for business In November 2015, the World Bank released its annual Doing Business ranking, in which Russia managed to rise to 51st place. For the Russian economy, this ranking has a particular significance because the government has selected it as […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – November 20, 2015) Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has rejected Russia’s restructuring proposal for the repayment of Kiev’s eurobond debt, and said the “aggressor state” should accept the same terms as other bondholders. The “basic conditions” that must be included in any debt restructuring plan include a 20 percent reduction on the face value of […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – November 19, 2015) Russian wages and retail sales declined by the most since 1999, a sign consumer demand will remain a weak link in the economy’s efforts to break out of its first recession in six years. Real wages fell 10.9 percent in October from a year earlier, a deeper contraction than the […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Maria Levitov – November 18, 2015) Reining in stimulus just became a lot easier for at least one of the world’s policy makers: Elvira Nabiullina. Signs this week that Russia’s isolation in global politics may be coming to an end set off a rally in the nation’s assets as investors bet sanctions over Ukraine will get […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – ANNA KUCHMA, RBTH – November 18, 2015) Russia’s Central Bank is to inject 1 trillion rubles ($15 billion) in banknotes into circulation in December, allegedly to cover a seasonal demand for cash. The regulator’s first deputy chairman Georgy Luntovsky announced the upcoming cash issue on Nov. 12. According to the Central Bank, the […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Alexander Sazonov – November 13, 2015) [Charts here bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-13/putin-s-gilded-cage-russia-s-rich-are-facing-cash-out-conundrum] It’s been a quarter century since the fall of the Soviet empire triggered one of history’s greatest wealth transfers. Now bankers are preparing for another as Russia’s first generation of capitalists makes way for the next. Confidential surveys of dozens of millionaires and billionaires conducted since European […]
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MOSCOW. Nov 9 (Interfax) – Russia’s merchandise imports from outside the CIS plunged 37.9% year-on-year in January-October 2015 to $132.84 billion, the Federal Customs Service (FCS) said, citing preliminary data. In October alone, imports from non-CIS countries totaled $14.375 billion, down 35.9% year-on-year. Imports declined 36.5% in October 2015 year-on-year for food goods and raw materials for their production to […]
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(RIA Novosti – Moscow, November 6, 2015) The majority of Russians are unsatisfied with their financial situation, and nearly each one in six is overwhelmed by a large amount of debts, according to a survey conducted by the National Financial Research Agency. Some 17 per cent of citizens complain about an enormous amount of debts. The percentage of those having […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – November 5, 2015) It’s difficult to quantify the damage Western economic sanctions have done to Russia. The country’s slump is almost exclusively due to a drop in oil prices, which has led to a sharp currency devaluation and a jump in interest rates. Yet the sanctions have fueled the Kremlin’s paranoia, lending Russia’s […]
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Russia’s postal service joined forces with VTB Bank to establish Post Bank, a new retail lender with three times as many retail branches as the current leader, Sberbank. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Kira Egorova – November 4, 2015) Russia’s government approved the establishment of a massive new bank based on the country’s postal service, a move that […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – November 4, 2015) Sergei Guriev, a former adviser to the Russian government who fled the country two years ago, has been appointed chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the bank said in a statement Tuesday. Guriev is to take up his post in summer 2016. He will become the first […]
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Low prices for hydrocarbons have led to the record-breaking filling of storage facilities in Europe and the United States, according to data published by Goldman Sachs. Although the report predicts a sharp decline in demand for oil, posing a threat to the Russian economy, Russian experts do not expect panic in the oil market. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru […]
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MOSCOW. Oct 28 (Interfax) – It is currently difficult to call the Russian banking system healthy, Sberbank (MOEX: SBER) deputy CEO Bella Zlatkis believes. “If two or three banking institutions in the country close per week, if this number increases by tens in a year, if a whole number of banking institutions are having problems with capital and liquidity, I […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 23, 2015) The European Union has prohibited its financial institutions from publishing analytical research of the Russian banks under EU sanctions, the European Commission said in a statement. The European Commission, the EU’s legislative body, prohibited publishing research on Russian banks because the analysis contained in the reports could help investors in Russia make […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Jason Corcoran in Moscow – October 21, 2015) Dedicated-Russia funds have become a rare species in the years following the 2008-2009 economic crisis. The country’s subsequent low growth, its current recession along with tumbling commodity prices and political isolation over Ukraine have almost led to their extinction. But what has become of these fund […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – October 20, 2015) Unpredictable lawmaking is undermining Russia’s ability to attract foreign investors, the Foreign Investment Advisory Council (FIAC) – a group of the biggest foreign companies working in Russia – told Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday. A report by financial services group and FIAC member EY (Ernst & Young) into […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Ott Ummelas, Anna Andrianova – October 18, 2015) There may be a silver lining for the Bank of Russia in another batch of grim consumer data. While Governor Elvira Nabiullina has set a course for monetary easing to match slowing inflation, policy makers last month paused their easing cycle for the first time in 2015. The […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – October 16, 2015) Standard & Poor’s has cut its growth forecast for Russia, predicting that lower and more volatile oil prices will make it harder for the country to emerge from recession. The ratings agency said Thursday that the Russian economy would contract by 3.6 percent this year and grow by only […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – October 15, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/investors-warm-lukewarm-russia] The political rhetoric between the Kremlin and the West remains fraught since the start of the Russian bombing campaign in Syria, but investors have started to warm to Russia as an investment destination; Russian bonds are the best performing in the world year […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Evgenia Pismennaya, Anna Andrianova, Ryan Chilcote – October 14, 2015) Fifteen years of oil at $50 a barrel isn’t the worst nightmare for Russian central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina. “What worries me more is the pace of reforms in the economy that could stimulate private investment,” Nabiullina, 51, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Tuesday. […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Jason Corcoran in Moscow – October 14, 2015) Russian President Vladimir Putin is abandoning his much-vaunted pivot to Asian sources of finance, judging by the prominence given to Anglo-American investors during his question & answer session at the VTB Capital conference in Moscow on October 13. A year ago, Western investors were largely absent […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – October 12, 2015) Russia has recorded its first quarterly net capital inflow in five years, with $5.3 billion flowing into the country from July to September, according to preliminary Central Bank data published Friday. The inflow reverses a period of record capital flight following last year’s sharp fall in the price of […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Jason Corcoran in Moscow – October 1, 2015) Goldman Sachs, Wall Street’s most profitable investment bank, has finally decided to trust Russian financiers to run its operation in Moscow. After reshuffling the deck, the bank said its business in Russia will now be now by Sergei Arsenyev and Dmitri Sedov, along with Tim Talkington, […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Elena Popina – September 27, 2015) [Chart here bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-27/bank-of-america-seeing-life-signs-in-russia-s-foundering-economy] Bank of America Corp. is starting to see faint signs of an economic recovery in Russia. The magnitude of a slowdown in capital investment is easing, while corporate profits have been increasing, a combination that Vladimir Osakovskiy, the bank’s chief economist in Moscow, said could mark a […]
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(Oilprice.com – Colin Chilcoat – September 24, 2015) Winning and losing is largely a matter of perspective, and that’s no different in today’s low oil price environment. Still, certain data and metrics can provide a more incorruptible viewpoint on the carnage, or lack thereof. In that regard-and to the surprise of many-count Russia’s oil majors among the current winners. Ranked […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – September 24, 2015) Russian banks are in a world of pain. Real incomes are falling for the first time since President Vladimir Putin has been on the job, and sanctions have cut banks off from their main source of long-term cheap financing. The upshot is that Russia’s financial sector […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 24, 2015) Almost a quarter of Russians know someone who lost their job in recent months, but 80 percent of people are not saving any money, a survey published by the state-run VTsIOM pollster on Wednesday showed. Twenty-seven percent of Russians know at least two people who lost their jobs in the last two […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – September 23, 2015) The value of goods imported by Russia from outside the former Soviet Union tumbled 39 percent in the first eight months of this year compared to the same period in 2014, as a deep recession cut into the country’s buying power. According to preliminary data from the Federal Customs […]
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The Kremlin is refusing to accept proposals by Kiev to restructure $3 billion worth of bonds and demands full payment on the debt. Experts point out that this is an economic as well as a political issue and it could become a bargaining chip in the ongoing negotiations over a bilateral gas deal. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Natasha Doff, Marton Eder – September 17, 2015) A group of investors in Ukraine’s shortest-dated bonds stepped up pressure on Franklin Templeton to adjust the terms of an $18 billion restructuring agreement they argue is biased against them, saying they have the power to block the deal. Holders of the $500 million Eurobond due on Sept. […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Jason Corcoran in Moscow – September 18, 2015) Deutsche Bank, a lender whose ties with Russia span 134 years, will exit its investment banking business in Moscow by the end of year following allegations its bankers laundered money on behalf of its clients, it was confirmed on September 18. The German bank’s corporate finance […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – September 17, 2015) A slump in Russian consumption showed no letup last month while a drop in investment stretched into the longest in two decades, highlighting the toll on the economy from lower oil prices and the latest wave of ruble depreciation. Real wages declined 9.8 percent from a year earlier after a […]
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SOCHI. Sept 17 (Interfax) – Russia’s Economic Development Ministry is somewhat more optimistic about the outlook for the oil market than the Central Bank in its baseline scenario, which assumes an oil price of $50 per barrel in the next three years. “Our hypothesis is that it might be a little higher, but this is absolutely not crucial,” Economic Development […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Natasha Doff, Daryna Krasnolutska – September 16, 2015) Ukraine’s government has stepped up last-minute lobbying because of growing concern that lawmakers won’t back an accord to restructure $18 billion of foreign debt. Government officials have met with ruling and opposition parties before a vote Thursday that’s supposed to give final approval to the debt deal, according […]
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SOCHI. Sept 16 (Interfax) – Because financial markets have largely priced in the effect of a potential rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev does not expect any major shocks if the U.S. Fed does approve a rate hike. “It seems to me that for the most part the markets have included the rate hike […]
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MOSCOW. Sept 11 (Interfax) – The Central Bank of Russia updated the forecast that was made earlier on the average annual price for oil and now is considering it being close to $50 a barrel in the next three years as the baseline scenario. “Going forward, the economic situation will depend on the global energy prices and the economy’s ability […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory – September 11, 2015) Chris Weafer is a founding partner of Macro-Advisory, which helps investors cut though the noise & focus on underlying trends, real political risks, & opportunities in Russia/CIS, Eurasia Union, & Mongolia. Follow him on @ChrisWeafer One of the slogans now regularly deployed to describe Russia’s current […]
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