(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Yuval Weber of Moscow’s Higher School of Economics – September 30, 2015) At the mid-June opening of Russia’s “military Disneyland” – officially titled “Patriot Park” – President Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to announce that 40 new intercontinental missiles would be added to Russia’s nuclear forces and that the theme park itself would be […]
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Reuters covers a recent Russian regional election in which the ruling United Russia party suffered defeat. When Communist Sergei Levchenko beat the incumbent from President Vladimir Putin’s party to become governor of Irkutsk region in Siberia on Sunday, even the voters who backed him were surprised: the Kremlin doesn’t lose elections. The result is said to raise questions about the […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Elena Popina – September 27, 2015) [Chart here bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-27/bank-of-america-seeing-life-signs-in-russia-s-foundering-economy] Bank of America Corp. is starting to see faint signs of an economic recovery in Russia. The magnitude of a slowdown in capital investment is easing, while corporate profits have been increasing, a combination that Vladimir Osakovskiy, the bank’s chief economist in Moscow, said could mark a […]
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The Russian government has announced that it is seeking to source equipment for offshore oil production from new countries due to the impact of sanctions by the European Union and the United States. However, as experts note, the development of Arctic fields is being hindered by low oil prices. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anastasia Bazenkova – September 25, 2015) A dramatic decline in consumer spending in recession-hit Russia has not scared foreign retailers away from starting new business in the country, research published on Thursday found. In the three months from July to September, 14 new foreign retailers have set up shop in Russia – two more than […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – September 25, 2015) Oil and gas companies earned 98 percent of all profits made by large Russian firms last year, a new ranking showed, making a mockery of attempts to wean Russia off its reliance on energy exports. A list by the RBC news agency of the biggest 500 Russian companies – […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 25, 2015) The Russian government may spend 240 billion rubles ($3.6 billion) on a national food stamp program to support an estimated 15-16 million Russian citizens whose poverty has deepened amid an economic slump, the RIA Novosti news agency reported Thursday. To deal with an economic shock that has spurred inflation into double digits […]
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(Oilprice.com – Colin Chilcoat – September 24, 2015) Winning and losing is largely a matter of perspective, and that’s no different in today’s low oil price environment. Still, certain data and metrics can provide a more incorruptible viewpoint on the carnage, or lack thereof. In that regard-and to the surprise of many-count Russia’s oil majors among the current winners. Ranked […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – September 24, 2015) Russian banks are in a world of pain. Real incomes are falling for the first time since President Vladimir Putin has been on the job, and sanctions have cut banks off from their main source of long-term cheap financing. The upshot is that Russia’s financial sector […]
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MOSCOW. Sept 24 (Interfax) – Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev believes that the structure and effectiveness of budget expenditures are no less important than balancing the budget. “The creation of comfortable conditions begins with ensuring macroeconomic stability. Low inflation and a balanced budget remain priorities for the country’s sustainable development. Inflation must be reduced to the level of 4% in […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 24, 2015) Almost a quarter of Russians know someone who lost their job in recent months, but 80 percent of people are not saving any money, a survey published by the state-run VTsIOM pollster on Wednesday showed. Twenty-seven percent of Russians know at least two people who lost their jobs in the last two […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – September 23, 2015) The value of goods imported by Russia from outside the former Soviet Union tumbled 39 percent in the first eight months of this year compared to the same period in 2014, as a deep recession cut into the country’s buying power. According to preliminary data from the Federal Customs […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas, Andrey Biryukov – September 22, 2015) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s promises made as recently as last year may be the latest casualty of the collapse in oil prices. Putin instructed the government on Tuesday to study the possibility of steering into the budget some of the gains by exporters from ruble devaluation, without losing […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 22, 2015) Twenty-eight percent fewer customers are walking through the doors of the average Moscow shopping center than two years ago, according to data from market researchers Watcom cited by the Kommersant newspaper. The slump in visitor numbers comes after years of expanding consumer spending in Russia as an oil boom fueled an emerging […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Natasha Doff, Marton Eder – September 17, 2015) A group of investors in Ukraine’s shortest-dated bonds stepped up pressure on Franklin Templeton to adjust the terms of an $18 billion restructuring agreement they argue is biased against them, saying they have the power to block the deal. Holders of the $500 million Eurobond due on Sept. […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Jason Corcoran in Moscow – September 18, 2015) Deutsche Bank, a lender whose ties with Russia span 134 years, will exit its investment banking business in Moscow by the end of year following allegations its bankers laundered money on behalf of its clients, it was confirmed on September 18. The German bank’s corporate finance […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – September 17, 2015) A slump in Russian consumption showed no letup last month while a drop in investment stretched into the longest in two decades, highlighting the toll on the economy from lower oil prices and the latest wave of ruble depreciation. Real wages declined 9.8 percent from a year earlier after a […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 18, 2015) Russians’ wages fell in August at their fastest pace since the start of the year, according to official data published Thursday that also showed a continuing slump in capital investment, industrial output and retail spending. Russia’s economy has been shaken by a collapse in the price of oil since summer 2014 and […]
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SOCHI. Sept 17 (Interfax) – Russia’s Economic Development Ministry is somewhat more optimistic about the outlook for the oil market than the Central Bank in its baseline scenario, which assumes an oil price of $50 per barrel in the next three years. “Our hypothesis is that it might be a little higher, but this is absolutely not crucial,” Economic Development […]
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Russia, already facing recession and falling oil prices, prepares for the possibility that Western sanctions may remain in place for years to come. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – David Miller, Jared Feldschreiber, special to RBTH – September 17, 2015) Russia is girding itself for the possibility of a long haul under Western economic sanctions, as officials in Moscow […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – September 15, 2015) [Charts here bne.eu/content/story/foot-traffic-russias-leading-shopping-malls-tumbles] Foot traffic at Russia’s leading malls is collapsing because of the grinding crisis that has seen real incomes fall the first time in a decade and a half, according to the most accurate index measuring Russians’ shopping habits. Moscow boasts some of the […]
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SOCHI. Sept 16 (Interfax) – Because financial markets have largely priced in the effect of a potential rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev does not expect any major shocks if the U.S. Fed does approve a rate hike. “It seems to me that for the most part the markets have included the rate hike […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 15, 2015) Thirteen percent of Russians would like to move abroad, while 17 percent of Muscovites would like to do so, a poll revealed Monday. Almost half of those who want to leave Russia for good – 38 percent – are young people between the ages of 18 and 24, research by the state-run […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – September 14, 2015) It’s been just under a quarter of a century since the fall of the Soviet Union and in that time a relatively small group of men have become fabulously wealthy in the rough and tumble of Russia’s “wild capitalism”. As most of Russia’s tycoons are approaching […]
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MOSCOW. Sept 13 (Interfax) – The obsession of the West with sanctions and not only with regard to Russia will become one of the subjects of the speech of President Vladimir Putin at the jubilee session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced. “We assume that Putin will express our principled evaluations […]
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MOSCOW. Sept 11 (Interfax) – The Central Bank of Russia updated the forecast that was made earlier on the average annual price for oil and now is considering it being close to $50 a barrel in the next three years as the baseline scenario. “Going forward, the economic situation will depend on the global energy prices and the economy’s ability […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory – September 11, 2015) Chris Weafer is a founding partner of Macro-Advisory, which helps investors cut though the noise & focus on underlying trends, real political risks, & opportunities in Russia/CIS, Eurasia Union, & Mongolia. Follow him on @ChrisWeafer One of the slogans now regularly deployed to describe Russia’s current […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexander Bratersky, special to RBTH – September 3, 2015) As Russian students head back to school, the country’s continued economic downturn and decline in real income is forcing some parents to make difficult decisions about educational expenses. Victoria, a single mother of a 13-year-old son, used to make enough money to live comfortably […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – September 4, 2015) Only five acting governors taking part in elections in 21 Russian regions next week have published electoral manifestos, the Petersburg Politics think tank said in a report published Thursday. The lack of manifestos attests to a deficit of clear vision among potential heads of Russian regions – as well […]
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MOSCOW. Sept 3 (Interfax) – Sberbank of Russia (MOEX: SBER) expects Russian GDP to contract 0.5% in 2016, bank President and CEO German Gref said on Rossiya 24 television. “Our most realistic forecast assumes economic growth will be negative 0.5%. We do not for now see any sources of growth that would produce serious recovery next year,” Gref said. The […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 2, 2015) Economic crisis and the resulting poverty, inflation and growing inequality are more important to Russians than the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine, a poll conducted by the independent Levada Center revealed on Monday. While the civil strife in eastern Ukraine still features on the list of Russians’ top 10 concerns, it was […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anastasia Bazenkova – August 31, 2015) As Russian children get ready to start a new school year this week, their parents have to cough up a record amount of money to equip them with everything they need, according to the latest study by a state-run pollster. An average Russian family will spend almost 20,000 rubles […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – August 28, 2015) Despite an initial surge of optimism about Ukraine’s financial health after it appeared to clinch a crucial restructuring deal with private creditors, the country is increasingly expected to default on a $3bn Russian-held Eurobond due for redemption in December 2015. The likelihood of the scenario grew after the […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – KYIV BLOG: Ben Aris in Moscow – August 28, 2015) The $3.6bn debt deal announced on August 27 by Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance, where private bondholders agreed to take a 20% writedown on the face value of $18bn in government debt, is very good news. Yet it’s not a done deal and the final […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Daria Litvinova – August 28, 2015) When asked what the most important things to do before turning 30 are, most Russians chose getting married, giving birth and receiving an education, while things like starting a business or traveling the world were at the bottom of the list, a poll released Wednesday by an independent Russian […]
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(Oilprice.com – Colin Chilcoat – August 25, 2015) Winters are the stuff of legend in Russia and – despite a fair bit of warming – winter 2015/16 is shaping up to be one of the harshest, and most formative, in recent memory. After a brief period of respite – and muted acceptance of the “new normal” – to start the […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova, Olga Tanas – August 25, 2015) Russia’s government is starting to face reality. While insisting the worst of its recession was over, it cut its economic forecasts for this year and next amid the renewed plunge in energy prices and persistent sanctions over Ukraine. Economists said the revisions fell short of their estimates predicting […]
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Amid turmoil on global financial markets, the Russian ruble fell to a historic low against the U.S. dollar on Aug. 24, while the key stock market index, the RTS, dropped 6 percent. Russian analysts say that there is little room for optimism while oil prices remain low. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan – August 25, 2015) […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – August 25, 2015) If you believe low oil prices killed the Soviet Union, it seems reasonable to wonder whether the current commodities bust will topple President Vladimir Putin or even break up Russia. Cheap oil, however, didn’t destroy the Soviet empire: Communism did. Putin’s Russia is more oil-dependent than its predecessor, but it […]
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(RIA Novosti – August 24, 2015) Russian Economic Development Minister has said the price of oil will find a new balance in a few months at the level of just over 50 dollars a barrel, RIA Novosti (part of the state-owned International News Agency Rossiya Segodnya) reported on 24 August. He said the average price of Urals oil will amount […]
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