JRL NEWSWATCH: “Bureaucracy as the Pillar of Stability: Are There Any Real Institutions Inside the Russian Political Regime?” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

“Russia’s ruling mechanism — bureaucratic institutions — may outlast the current personalism. This vast network of civil servants, technocrats, and administrators forms a modestly resilient framework that endures beyond individual political decisions, providing continuity and ensuring the steady day-to-day functioning of the government.” “A persistent question … has been whether Russia has transitioned from … authoritarian … to … totalitarian […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Almost No Russian Oil Sold Below G7 Price Cap – FT” – Moscow Times

Oil Wells File Photo

(Moscow Times – Nov. 14, 2023) Russia has managed to almost entirely circumvent a G7 price cap on its oil exports, with Moscow claiming average sales at more than $20 per barrel above the imposed limit, the Financial Times reported Tuesday, citing Western officials and Russian export data. [ft.com/content/09e8ee14-a665-4644-8ec5-5972070463ad] According to an unnamed senior European official who spoke to FT, […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 27-Nov. 3, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Squeezed by Sanctions, Some Oligarchs Are Heading Home to Putin’s Russia” – Bloomberg

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“Putin’s war in Ukraine is leaving billionaires who sought to integrate with the West to face the reality of international isolation.” “… Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed everything for [certain Russian oligarchs] … who prospered under Putin until the U.S. and Europe imposed sweeping sanctions aimed at isolating the Kremlin leader and bringing his economy to its knees. The penalties […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 23-30, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Western Firms Continue to Dominate Russian Market in 2023 – Forbes” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Meeting Room Table with Microphones and Chairs, adapted from image at cdc.gov

(Moscow Times – Oct. 2, 2023) U.S., French and German corporations continued to dominate the Russian market in 2023 despite the Western business exodus sparked by the war in Ukraine, according to Forbes Russia’s list of the 50 largest foreign companies in the country. [forbes.ru/biznes/497010-50-krupnejsih-inostrannyh-kompanij-v-rossii-2023-rejting-forbes] The latest ranking, which also saw Chinese companies gain ground, reflects the major geopolitical shifts […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A higher global oil price will help Russia pay for its war; The Kremlin tries new tactics to keep proceeds afloat” – The Economist

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“… After … record volumes in recent months, despite Western embargoes, dwindling production and the [Black Sea navigational] risks … Russia’s crude shipments fell to 3m barrels a day (b/d) in August … 800,000 lower than … April-May … and below pre-war levels. …. On September 5th Russia said it would extend a ‘voluntary’ 300,000 b/d cut … to the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin, Xi and BRICS Allies See Chance to Shake Up World Order” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Dozens of nations have lined up to become members of BRICS.” “… The BRICS bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will use an annual leaders’ summit in Johannesburg … to begin the process of enlisting more members to bolster its global heft, a push driven mainly by Chinese President Xi Jinping but also backed by Russia […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Airlines Import $1.2Bln Worth of Western Parts Despite Sanctions – Reuters” – Moscow Times

Russian Plane file photo, adapted from image at ice.gov

(Moscow Times – Aug. 23, 2023) Russian airlines have continued to import spare parts for Western aircraft despite sanctions designed to cut off the flow of key equipment, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing customs data. Ural Airlines, Norwdind Airlines, S7, Aeroflot and others have imported $1.2 billion worth of spare parts from third parties between May 2022 and June 2023, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s War-Torn Economy Hits Its Speed Limit” – WSJ

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“Economists see this week’s currency gyrations not as the beginning of a financial crisis but rather as a symptom of the Kremlin’s sclerotic economic prospects.” “The Russian central bank’s jumbo interest-rate increase to halt a tumbling ruble … points to a new reality …. The government has flooded the Russian economy with money to keep … troops in Ukraine supplied […]

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Is Russia the World’s 5th Largest Economy in GDP, PPP?

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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff and Associates – Aug. 16, 2023) “Russia becomes Europe’s biggest economy.” That’s the headline that Kremlin-funded RT’s editors put on a story they ran Aug. 4. The story went on to trumpet that “Russia was among the world’s five largest economies and the largest in Europe in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Drastic Economic Moves Highlight Russia’s Wartime Bind” – New York Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“With the third-largest interest rate increase in a decade to shore up the ruble, Moscow’s policymakers are pursuing the conflicting goals of paying for the war against Ukraine and taming inflation.” “For years, Russia’s central bank … shielded the country’s economy when crisis … loomed, drastically raising interest rates, restricting money movements or taking over ailing banks. … convey[ing] a […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Opts Against Stricter Capital Controls Amid Ruble’s Slide – Vedomosti” – Moscow Times

File photo of Russian paper currency, adapted from image at csce.house.gov

(Moscow Times – Aug. 17, 2023) Russia will not tighten capital controls in response to a weakening ruble, the Vedomosti business daily reported Thursday, citing two anonymous sources close to the Russian government. President Vladimir Putin met with cabinet members and Central Bank governor Elvira Nabiullina on Wednesday to hear proposals on converting foreign currency earnings held by exporters into […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia got richer even as the war in Ukraine raged on last year, while the West shed trillions of dollars of wealth” – Business Insider

Hand Pulling Cash from Envelope

“Russia added $600 billion of total wealth last year … [according to Swiss bank] UBS …. The number of millionaires and ultra-high-net-worth individuals also rose, despite the war in Ukraine …. … [T]he U.S. and Europe shed trillions of dollars worth of wealth, [UBS] reported. …” “UBS acknowledges … ‘wealth trends in Russia are difficult to determine …’  …. Rising […]

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Russian Factories Face Record Labor Shortages

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Moscow Times – Aug. 3, 2023) Russia’s industrial worker shortage reached a new high last month, the RBC news website reported Thursday, citing a survey by the Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy. The survey found that 42% of Russian industrial enterprises faced a shortage of workers in July, surpassing April’s record-setting shortage of 35%, according to the same survey […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “BRICS Expansion Plan Draws Interest From More Than 40 Nations” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Flags of BRICS Nations and BRICS Logo from Past Summit

Twenty-two countries … have formally applied to join bloc Putin skipping summit out of consideration for BRICS: Sooklal “More than 40 nations have indicated an interest in joining the BRICS bloc of major developing economies as it seeks to expand to grow its political clout, [according to Anil Sooklal,] South Africa’s ambassador to the group …. Brazil, Russia, India and […]

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Russia in Review, June 30-July 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 26-July 5, 2023 – 5 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia gas flows through Ukraine could stop next year, Kyiv says” – Financial Times

Gas Flame file photo

“Ukrainian energy minister said renewal of five-year transit contract to supply Europe was unlikely” “One of the last arteries carrying Russian gas to Europe could be shut off by the end of [2024] when Ukraine’s … contract with Gazprom expires … Ukrainian [Minister of Energy German] Galushchenko said … the chances of … [contract] renewal … were slim … [T]he […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Showcase Economic Forum Is Now a Charade” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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“The excessive optimism of Putin and his ministers smacks of an attempt to convince not even mythical investors so much as themselves that business as usual is possible — and even compatible with their threats to unleash nuclear war.” “… Investors and foreign media used to see … Putin’s keynote address as an economic road map and indication of [Putin’s] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Despite war, post-Soviet states find breaking up with Russia hard to do” – Christian Science Monitor/ Fred Weir

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

… [At this year’s Victory Day parade,] Putin was joined … by the leaders of seven other post-Soviet countries, including all five former Soviet Central Asian republics, plus Armenia and Belarus. After more than a year of severe stress, many of those countries have sought to distance themselves from embattled Moscow and find alternative avenues for trade, political connections, and […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Risks Return to Planned Economy – Central Bank” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – June 15, 2023) Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned Thursday that Russia is at risk of reverting to a planned economic system as it grapples with restructuring challenges driven by soaring war expenses and unprecedented Western sanctions. “The temptation to manage economic restructuring can lead to [a situation] where we suppress private initiative [by businesses], not […]

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Russia in Review, May 26-June 2, 2023 – 4 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]

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Kissinger on Russia: Insights and Recommendations

Henry Kissinger File Photo, with Military Officer and Others in Background; adapted from image at defense.gov,; original image was DoD photo by Air Force Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]

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Russia in Review, May 19-26, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Alfa Tycoons as Victims? Come On” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – Farida Rustamova, Maxim Tovkaylo – March 10, 2023) The first high-profile attempt by a group of Russian billionaires to get European sanctions against them lifted with help from the country’s political opposition has ended in bitter acrimony and the resignation of Leonid Volkov — a close ally of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny — from his position […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: Russia set to mothball damaged Nord Stream gas pipelines – sources” – Reuters

Gas Flame file photo

“Russia’s ruptured undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines [reportedly] are set to be sealed up and mothballed as there are no immediate plans to repair or reactivate them …. Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, each consisting of two pipes, were built by … Gazprom to pump 110 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas a year to Germany under […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions aren’t keeping name brands out of Russia. Why not?” – Christian Science Monitor

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Western sanctions aren’t keeping iPhones off Russian shelves or Hollywood films out of Moscow’s theaters. ‘Parallel imports’ are making Russia’s economy more resilient than expected.” “… Frustrating U.S. and European sanctions hawks, Russia appears to be weathering the West’s attempts to damage its economy in response to the invasion of Ukraine. … Via what are known as ‘parallel imports,’ Russian […]

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Russia’s Oil And Gas Revenues Are In Decline

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan. 19, 2023) Russia’s current account surplus hit a quarterly record in the second quarter of 2022 as its imports fell and the value of its exports soared. Since that record quarter, Russia’s current account surplus has dropped every quarter as gas exports dried up and oil prices fell. Russia’s energy export revenues are set […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Manufacturing Activity Hits 6-Year High – Business Survey” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – Dec. 1, 2022) Russian manufacturing firms recorded their fastest rate of growth last month in almost six years due to new export orders and increased demand from domestic customers, according to a business survey published Thursday by S&P Global. Despite Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, “firms expanded their input buying at the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Regime is ‘Cracking’ as Elites Panic: Former U.S. Ambassador” – Newsweek

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“An argument on Russian state television is a ‘good sign’ that the country’s leadership is cracking, according to [] former U.S. [A]mbassador [McFaul]. Russia [reportedly] has threatened to nationalize assets of Western companies … pull[ing] resources from the country following its [Ukraine] invasion …. Hundreds of companies have already left Russia after expressing dissatisfaction with the war … [I]f the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Diplomacy Is Still (Just About) Possible in Ukraine; The Black Sea agreement offers a model for off-ramps to escalation” – Foreign Policy

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… There has been one … diplomatic effort … agreed on and implemented by all parties involved (including both Ukraine and Russia) … [that] could also serve as a framework for preventing the war from worsening. … the Black Sea Grain Initiative … mediated by Turkey and the United Nations. … … [It] paved the way for a humanitarian maritime […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian central bank looks to spread risks across banking sector – Expert magazine” – Reuters

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“As Russian banks contend with foreign currency and payment headaches, the central bank [reportedly] is determined to redistribute funding and risks across the sector to safeguard those lenders [targeted by Western sanctions] …. The West imposed unprecedented measures against Russia’s banking sector after … [the] Feb. 24 [invasion of Ukraine], blocking major banks from … SWIFT … and limiting their […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Russia’s grim demographics could thwart Putin’s global ambitions” – Washington Post

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

“The Russian army’s strangely stumble-footed invasion of Ukraine is only the latest reminder of the pervasive and long-standing ‘human resource’ woes that frustrate … Putin’s aspirations for superpower status. … Russia is depopulating — even after Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, its total numbers are lower today than when the Soviet Union collapsed. Russia’s working-age population and its pool […]

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Who’s to Blame? Sanctions, Economic Hardship, and Putin’s Fear of Color Revolutions

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(PONARS Eurasia Eurasia Policy Memo No. 767 – Stephen Crowley – April 18, 2022 – click here for PDF) Stephen Crowley is Professor of Politics at Oberlin College. He is the author of, Putin’s Labor Dilemma: Russian Politics between Stability and Stagnation (Cornell University Press, 2021), from which this memo is drawn. The sanctions now imposed on Russia—as severe as they are—are unlikely by […]

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RUSSIALINK: “200,000 Risk Losing Jobs in Moscow Over Sanctions – Mayor” – Moscow Times

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Moscow Times – April 18, 2022) Around 200,000 employees of foreign companies in Moscow could lose their jobs due to sanctions over Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, the city’s mayor said on Monday. “According to our estimates, about 200,000 people are at risk of losing their jobs,” Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a blog post. He said authorities had […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Ukraine Standoff Threatens to Derail Russia’s Domestic Battle Against Inflation; Even without invasion, the crisis is accentuating rising price pressures at home” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine threatens to compromise Russia’s domestic economic plans and accentuate the country’s cost of living crisis […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Toast of Emerging Markets in 2021, Russia Gives Pause” – Bloomberg

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“… For all the gains [Russia’s] assets … made in the past 12 months, a military incursion into Ukraine [reportedly] would transform the narrative instantly …. Unprecedented U.S. and European sanctions would leave Russia off-limits to many investors, rendering the benefits of rising commodity prices, record international reserves and the central bank’s hawkish turn all but irrelevant. … [T]ensions with […]

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Time Horizons of Russians Short and Bases for More Optimism in Short Supply, Volkov Says

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Dec. 29, 2021) For six reasons, Russians do not have a long time horizon when it comes to planning, Denis Volkov of the Levada Center says on the basis of his conversations with participants of focus groups. And while their optimism about the future has risen over the past year, few are […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Inflation poses serious challenge for implementation of national projects, risks of stalling should be reduced to minimum – Putin” – Interfax

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Moscow. Dec 15 (Interfax) – Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for reducing the risks of construction timelines on projects being built as part of national projects stalling due to inflation, including rising prices for construction materials. “I’m calling on colleagues to consistently monitor the progress of national projects, to analyze bottlenecks or delays in order to make additional decisions […]

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Back in the USSR: Are Residents of Former Republics Better Off 30 Years Later?

Soviet ICBM in Parade With Soviet Flag Bearing Image of Lenin in Background

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – Dec. 16, 2021) Thirty years ago this month, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics officially ceased to exist. The 15 republics which had made up the Soviet Union were confronted with uncertain paths as they endeavored to establish political structures and reform economic systems. They faced unresolved territorial questions, socio-economic crises and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “CIA Chief Says Intelligence Agencies Haven’t Concluded Russia Will Invade Ukraine” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Russian President Putin is assembling a potent military force and may see a chance to act this winter, William Burns says […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Markets Tumble on Discovery of ‘Worst Ever’ Coronavirus Strain” – Moscow Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

Russian financial markets have tumbled in a day of global market turmoil following the discovery of a new coronavirus strain, dubbed the “worst ever” by scientists […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Small Business Share Hits Record Low; Small businesses account for less than one in every eight rubles of corporate turnover.” – Moscow Times

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Russia’s small businesses are claiming their lowest share of corporate turnover since at least 2008, as the coronavirus pandemic and lack of government support continue to hit hard […]

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