RUSSIALINK: “IMF forecasts deeper slump for Russian, global economies” – Interfax

File Photo of IMF Acronym on Wall Below Row of Circular Lights, adapted from image at state.gov by Steven C. Welsh :: www.stevencwelsh.com :: www.stevencwelsh.info

MOSCOW. June 25 (Interfax) – The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its outlook for the Russian economy in 2020 and now expects the country to see a slump of 6.6% instead of the 5.5% drop it forecast in April. The global economy will also contract by more than previously thought, by 4.9% instead of 3%, the IMF said in its […]

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How Bad are Things in Russia? For First Time in 15 Years, Moscow Doesn’t Publish Monthly GDP Figures

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 13, 2020) For the first time since 2005, the Russian finance ministry did not issue monthly GDP data for May, an indication of just how bad the figures almost certainly would have been and a sign that not publishing data may become a trend in Putin’s Russia (finanz.ru/novosti/aktsii/minfin-zasekretil-dannye-po-vvp-rossii-za-may-1029303651 and rbc.ru/economics/12/06/2020/5ee268459a79476bd86bbda3). Among […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Starts to Dig Its Way Out of a Coronavirus Economic Hole” – Moscow Times

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The Russian economy is set to emerge from the coronavirus crisis on the same slow and steady trajectory it had settled on heading into it, economists believe.

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s consumer orientated business takes the brunt of the coronacrisis blow, basic sectors down 10% in April” – bne Intellinews

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“Russia’s basic sector output was down 9.9% year on year in April … [with] the effects of the coronacrisis …. Over the first four months … Russia’s basic sector output fell 0.9% y/y, versus 2.3% growth in 1Q20. … [Only] [a]griculture … show[ed] growth. All … other subsectors contracted in April. Retail, services, manufacturing and wholesale suffered the most …. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Pandemic Upends Putin’s Plans to Raise Russia’s Dwindling Birthrate” – Wall Street Journal/ Ann M. Simmons

File Photo of Russian Crowd, with Russian Flag Being Waved

“President Vladimir Putin has been trying for years to push Russia’s birthrate higher, but the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic is undermining his efforts” “… The Kremlin has been trying for years to encourage Russians to have more children. … Putin sees replenishing … population as … key to expanding Russia’s economic and political power. But … falling incomes […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Global Ambitions Are Upended by Coronavirus’s Heavy Toll in Russia” – Wall Street Journal/ Yaroslav Trofimov, Thomas Grove

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

Russian president’s efforts to showcase the country’s strength abroad backfired amid virus troubles at home […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian government presents National Recovery Plan to President Putin” – bne Intellinews

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“… Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has presented the National Recovery Plan to … Putin … [with] a launch at the beginning of July. … [T]he government has rolled out two economic support packages, worth RUB3.1 trillion ($42.1bn), or 2.8% of GDP. The RUB7.3 trillion final recovery plan was cut from the previously reported RUB8 trillion plan … includ[ing] the two […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Prices Economic Recovery Plan at $70Bln” – Moscow Times

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Russia will launch a 5 trillion ruble ($73 billion) recovery plan next month to offset economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said in a televised meeting with President Vladimir Putin […]

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Putin To Bail Out Russian Oil Industry

Oil Well file photo

(Oilprice.com – Irina Slav – May 25, 2020) Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has tasked the government with implementing a set of measures aimed at supporting the oil industry for the duration of the OPEC+ production cut agreement. According to a document published on the website of the Russian presidency, the measures include a prescription not to sanction companies that stray […]

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Many Russians Expect to Lose Jobs, Take Pay Cuts in Wake of Pandemic

File Photo of Empty Chair and Desk with Computer, adapted from image at osha.gov

Almost half of Russians expect layoffs within their household in the coming months and almost one-third have already had someone in their household recently fired, according to a poll conducted April 26-28 […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s GDP shrinks by 20% in April, but government maintains a triple surplus” – bne Intellinews

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“… Russia’s nominal GDP shrank … 28%, of which two-thirds was due to the nation-wide lockdown … another third … due to … oil prices, the Ministry of Finance said …. The real contraction of the economy in April could be 20%, according to the Ministry …. [T]he government has reported … surplus[es] [for] the trade balance, currency account and […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Profit Slumps Herald More Trouble Ahead for Russia’s Corporate Giants” – Moscow Times

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Russian companies’ first quarter financial results are already showing the impact of the coronavirus. The worst is yet to come. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – May 18, 2020) Russia’s blue chip companies have posted some of the bleakest financial results for years in the first few months of 2020, with analysts saying the hit to earnings will […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Economic Woes Continue to Mount During Coronavirus Outbreak” – Moscow Times

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As the Kremlin resists pressure to spend, official statistics show economic activity down by a third and tax revenues crashing. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – May 6, 2020) Jake Cordell covers business & economics for The Moscow Times. A third of the Russian economy has ground to a halt because of the coronavirus lockdown, the Russian government […]

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Russia’s Energy Czar, Disliked And Feared, Catches Blame As Oil Prices Collapse, Venezuela Deals Crumble

File Photo of Rosneft and Russian Flags Next to Rosneft Banner

March was the cruelest month for one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s longest-serving and most hawkish confidants[,] Igor Sechin … head of state oil company Rosneft …

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s economic woes will clip Vladimir Putin’s wings; Pandemic combined with collapsing oil prices spells real hardship” – Financial Times

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“… Putin’s … oil price war with Saudi Arabia … was disastrously timed. … days before the coronavirus pandemic began forcing economies around the world into lockdown, cutting crude demand. Russia then succumbed to the virus itself. … [Putin] had to cancel a referendum to approve constitutional changes …. The IMF forecasts Russian [GDP] could contract by 5.5 per cent […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Facing Disaster, Russian Businesses Find Kremlin Aid Lacking” – AP

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“Desperate [Russian] business owners … have been pleading with the Kremlin for help in the pandemic shutdown. The response … has been slow and largely focused on big industries, leaving most smaller companies to fend for themselves … raising the prospect of massive unemployment and social unrest. The Kremlin’s anti-crisis measures reflect its long-held emphasis on state-controlled companies and a […]

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RUSSIALINK: “CBR reiterates, strengthens monetary policy signal: scale of shock requires broad steps, economy to require low-cost funds” – Interfax

Central Bank of Russia file photo

MOSCOW. April 28 (Interfax) – The Central Bank of Russia (CBR), which cut its key rate by 50 basis points last Friday for the first time in six months and said that further monetary easing was possible at its next meeting, has reiterated its dovish signal and even strengthened it somewhat. “We must be able to mitigate the blow to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Cuts Interest Rate to Shore Up Faltering Economy” – Wall Street Journal/ Georgi Kantchev

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The central bank takes action as the country lurches towards a recession. “Russia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate in a move to shore up the country’s economy as it lurches toward a deep recession due to depressed oil prices and shutdowns over the spread of the coronavirus. … lower[ing] its key rate by a deeper-than-usual 50 basis points […]

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As Economic Crisis Deepens, More Russians Say Putin Defends the Interests of the Oligarchs than Say He Supports Those of the Siloviki

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, April 12, 2020) Something remarkable has happened: For the first time since he became president, more Russians say that Vladimir Putin works to defend the interests of the oligarchs than the number who say he defends the positions of the siloviki, according to a Levada Center poll reported by Vedomosti. The percentage […]

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RUSSIALINK: “OPEC+ Deal Will Help Russia Avoid ‘Market Chaos,’ But Provides Little Support to Embattled Economy” – Moscow Times

Oil Well file photo

The production cut will support oil prices and avoid a further ruble crash while the wider economic damage from coronavirus continues to build. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – April 13, 2020) The fresh OPEC+ deal struck between Russia and Saudi Arabia over the weekend will provide little support to the Russian economy, analysts believe. Instead, the deal […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Should Launch Cash Handouts and Quantitative Easing, Economists Argue” – Moscow Times

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The Russian government needs to spend up to $136 billion to fight the economic impact of the coronavirus, a group of liberal economists argues (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – April 14, 2020) The Russian government should dramatically accelerate its economic relief measures by launching a quantitative easing program and handing over large cash payments to Russian citizens, a group of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia has zero FDI in 1Q20; Russia’s FDI in 1Q20 was next to nothing, which means in reality it was probably negative” – bne Intellinews/ Ben Aris

File Photo of Outdoor Electronic Sign with Russian Exchange Data

“Russia received almost zero foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first quarter 2020, dropping from $10.3bn in the same period a year earlier to $200mn, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reported …. This number almost certainly understates the real FDI, which was most likely negative. … a quirk of Russian national statistics means that foreign companies working and registered […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Long War Against American Science” – New York Times/ William J. Broad

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

A decade of health disinformation promoted by President Vladimir Putin of Russia has sown wide confusion, hurt major institutions and encouraged the spread of deadly illnesses. “… the pandemic has swept the globe … accompanied by a dangerous surge of false information – an ‘infodemic,’ according to the [WHO] …. Analysts say … Putin … has played a principal role […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Coronavirus Upends Putin’s Political Agenda in Russia” – AP

Kremlin and River

“… A nationwide vote on April 22 was supposed to finalize sweeping constitutional reforms that would allow [Putin] to stay in power until 2036 …. But after the coronavirus spread in Russia, that plebiscite had to be postponed – an action so abrupt that billboards promoting it already had been erected in Moscow and other big cities. Now under threat […]

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Russia Is Well-Positioned to Weather COVID-19’s Economic Fallout

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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Chris Weafer – April 9, 2020) Chris Weafer is a founding partner of independent macro consultancy Macro-Advisory. Russia is in a relatively good position to survive the COVID-19 crisis and several months of low oil revenues. This is because of the changes it was forced to make to its monetary and fiscal management as a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “‘They need to quarantine Moscow’; How small businesses in Russia’s capital are scrambling to stay afloat as coronavirus clobbers the economy” – Meduza

Coronavirus File Photo adapted from image at cdc.gov

“… The news website RBC estimates that shutting down for a single day costs the average shopping and entertainment center in Moscow and the surrounding region roughly 60-155 million rubles (between $775,800 and $2 million). Fitness clubs … will lose as much as 300,000 rubles ($3,900) a day, while coffee shops in the city center will lose 100,000-200,000 rubles ($1,290-$2,585) […]

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Putin Makes Plea For Sanctions Relief At G20 Summit

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – March 26, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/30511615.html) Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed at a Group of 20 (G20) video conference that a freeze be placed on economic sanctions to allow countries to better combat the coronavirus pandemic that has infected more than 500,000 worldwide […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Situation thus far not developing in best way, Russia to see budget deficit in 2020 – Siluanov” – Interfax

Anton Siluanov file photo

MOSCOW. March 18 (Interfax) – The Russian government is diverting from its macroeconomic forecast for 2020: the budget will see a deficit and National Wealth Fund (NWF) resources will need to be used, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said while speaking at the annual meeting of the Federal Treasury board. Opening the board meeting, Siluanov remarked on the fact that it […]

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Ruble, Oil Prices Tumble Amid Market Chaos After OPEC-Russia Deal Collapses

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(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – March 9, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/ruble-oil-prices-tumble-after-opec-deal-collapses-amid-coronavirus-fears/30476938.html) The Russian ruble fell to a four-year low after oil prices collapsed following a breakup of talks between OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and Moscow. The ruble tumbled on March 9 by more than 7 percent to nearly 74 […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A Wake-Up Call for Russia” – The Hill/ William Courtney

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

“… So why is the [Russian] economy stagnating? Oil prices are below previous peaks, but factors under Moscow’s control are structural barriers and geopolitical tensions. First … state-owned companies tend to be less productive …. Russia’s Federal Anti-Monopoly Service says … prior to the 1998 financial crisis the state’s share of the economy was about 25 percent of GDP, but […]

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RUSSIALINK: “OECD Slashes Russia Growth Forecast in Stark Coronavirus Warning” – Moscow Times

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Even if the spread slows, the economic effects of coronavirus will last throughout 2020, new report says. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – March 2, 2020) The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has drastically cut its forecast for the Russian economy in a bleak report warning of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. The OECD now expects Russia’s annual […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Falling oil prices threaten to derail Putin’s spending promises” – Financial Times/ Max Seddon, Henry Foy, Nastassia Astrasheuskaya

Oil Wells File Photo

Kremlin’s bid to boost economy relies on Russian budget surplus and national wealth fund “… Putin’s spending promises are under threat from falling oil prices that could hurt the savings the Kremlin is tapping to rekindle growth. The coronavirus outbreak … pushed Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, down 10 per cent to a year-low … close to $50 a […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Kudrin doubts 1.9% economic growth forecast due to coronavirus” – Interfax

Coronavirus File Photo adapted from image at cdc.gov

MOSCOW. Feb 18 (Interfax) – Alexei Kudrin, the chairman of the Russian Accounts Chamber, said he was doubtful about the government’s 1.9% economic growth forecast and that adverse factors like the coronavirus needed to be taken into account. “The measures in fulfillment of the [president’s] address will produce an additional effect on economic growth. Right now I hesitate to say […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian economy growing stably but is vulnerable – Klepach” – Interfax

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MOSCOW. Dec 3 (Interfax) – Russia’s economy is growing stably but is very vulnerable, according to VEB.RF head economist Andrei Klepach. “The problem isn’t that we don’t have stable growth, we do, though it’s very vulnerable. If there’s a global recession, that will inevitably have an effect on [Russia’s] economic growth. The problem is that this growth, even if it’s […]

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Economics Rather than Politics Reason So Many Young Russians Want to Move Abroad, Volkov Says

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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, Nov. 29, 2019) Because until relatively recently Russians could not move abroad freely, the issue of emigration remains very “politicized,” Denis Volkov says, with supporters of the regime calling those who want to leave or do traitors and opponents saying that emigration can be blamed on “the bloody Putin regime.” But while […]

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RUSSIALINK: “State-Run Bank Says Putin Will Fail to Meet Economic Targets by 2024; Russia will fall short of most of the goals outlined in the president’s $400 billion National Projects program” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – Nov. 20, 2019) Jake covers business & economics for The Moscow Times. President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to meet most of his flagship economic and development goals during his final term, a new report from a government-owned bank said Wednesday. The National Projects program – a $400 billion package of investments covering […]

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RUSSIALINK: “What’s Next for Russia’s Economy? Analysts predict low growth, low inflation and a strong stock market in the final two months of the year” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – November 1, 2019) Jake Cordell covers business & economics for The Moscow Times. A fresh roster of forecasts and data on the Russian economy suggests slow growth and low inflation coupled with robust corporate performance will mark the final two months of the year. Meanwhile, economy-watchers remain fixed on a crucial Central […]

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Sure, Help The Homeless, These Moscow Residents Say, But Don’t Do It In Our Neighborhood

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

(Article text ©2019 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – Anastasia Kuzina, Robert Coalson – MOSCOW – Oct. 27, 2019 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/russia-homeless-moscow-neighborhood-not-in-my-backyard/30238628.html) “If you want to do good deeds, do them – but don’t make those around you uncomfortable,” said Kira Gorchakova, a resident of Moscow’s Begovoi district when asked about a shelter […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Rises in World Bank’s Business Rating” – Moscow Times

World Bank Building

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 24, 2019) Russia has inched upward in the World Bank’s latest Doing Business report, rising three places but still missing President Vladimir Putin’s goal of breaking into the top 20. Putin set the challenge of leaping up the ease-of-business ratings by 2018 after the country placed a dismal 120th in 2011. The 2020 Doing […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Experts Raise Questions Over Strong Russian Official Economic Statistics; Analysts struggle to explain an unexpected jump in real incomes and GDP recorded by the official Russian statistics agency” – Moscow Times

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – October 18, 2019) Economists have raised questions over a surprisingly healthy batch of economic data released by the Russian statistics agency Rosstat. Statistics published Thursday evening showed an unexpected and significant jump in real disposable incomes of an annual rate of 3% in the third quarter of the year, off the back […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Going Nowhere in Global Competitiveness Rankings” – Moscow Times

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Russia stays mid-table in rankings of the world’s most competitive economies, while Singapore leapfrogs United States into top spot (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 9, 2019) Russia has failed to climb up the global competitiveness rankings, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said today, remaining in 43rd place in its influential Global Competitiveness Index. Researchers said Russia scored highly on […]

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RUSSIALINK: “World Bank Cuts Russian Growth Forecast” – Moscow Times

World Bank Building

Economy expected to expand by just 1% in 2019 amid weak investment, low consumer confidence and international sanctions (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Oct. 9, 2019) The World Bank has become the latest organization to cut its outlook for the Russian economy, predicting growth of just 1% in 2019. A host of domestic and international factors are holding back the […]

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Russian Middle Class Now ‘More Dead than Alive,’ New Research Shows

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(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, October 5, 2019) “The middle class in Russia is more dead than alive,” Fustem Falyakhov reports in Gazeta on the basis of new research carried out by Alina Pishnyak of the Center for the Analysis of Incomes and Standard of Living of the Higher School of Economics (gazeta.ru/business/2019/10/04/12737647.shtml). Her research shows that […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Displays a Two-Track Economy; The Russian economy is both growing and declining, depending on whether you look at domestic or global statistics” – Moscow Times

Kremlin and River

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – October 3, 2019) Jake Cordell covers business & economics for The Moscow Times Fresh economic data released this week told a tale of two Russian economies – resilient yet fragile, growing and contracting, confident while insecure. On the home front, the country’s economy appears to be trundling along with modest success. But […]

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