Who’s to Blame? Sanctions, Economic Hardship, and Putin’s Fear of Color Revolutions

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(PONARS Eurasia Eurasia Policy Memo No. 767 – Stephen Crowley – April 18, 2022 – click here for PDF) Stephen Crowley is Professor of Politics at Oberlin College. He is the author of, Putin’s Labor Dilemma: Russian Politics between Stability and Stagnation (Cornell University Press, 2021), from which this memo is drawn. The sanctions now imposed on Russia—as severe as they are—are unlikely by […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “200,000 Risk Losing Jobs in Moscow Over Sanctions – Mayor” – Moscow Times

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

(Moscow Times – April 18, 2022) Around 200,000 employees of foreign companies in Moscow could lose their jobs due to sanctions over Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, the city’s mayor said on Monday. “According to our estimates, about 200,000 people are at risk of losing their jobs,” Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a blog post. He said authorities had […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Ukraine Standoff Threatens to Derail Russia’s Domestic Battle Against Inflation; Even without invasion, the crisis is accentuating rising price pressures at home” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine threatens to compromise Russia’s domestic economic plans and accentuate the country’s cost of living crisis […]

» Read more

Time Horizons of Russians Short and Bases for More Optimism in Short Supply, Volkov Says

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Dec. 29, 2021) For six reasons, Russians do not have a long time horizon when it comes to planning, Denis Volkov of the Levada Center says on the basis of his conversations with participants of focus groups. And while their optimism about the future has risen over the past year, few are […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Inflation poses serious challenge for implementation of national projects, risks of stalling should be reduced to minimum – Putin” – Interfax

Cash, Calculator, Pen

Moscow. Dec 15 (Interfax) – Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for reducing the risks of construction timelines on projects being built as part of national projects stalling due to inflation, including rising prices for construction materials. “I’m calling on colleagues to consistently monitor the progress of national projects, to analyze bottlenecks or delays in order to make additional decisions […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Small Business Share Hits Record Low; Small businesses account for less than one in every eight rubles of corporate turnover.” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

Russia’s small businesses are claiming their lowest share of corporate turnover since at least 2008, as the coronavirus pandemic and lack of government support continue to hit hard […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Russia Hikes Rates as Economists Warn of Triple Threat to Economy” – Moscow Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

The Russian economy faces a surge in coronavirus cases, partial lockdowns and spiraling inflation […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Econ Ministry ups 2021 Russian GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from 3.8%, lowers 2022 forecast to 3% from 3.2%” – Interfax

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

MOSCOW. Sept 8 (Interfax) – Russia’s Economic Development Ministry expects the country’s GDP to grow at least 4.2% in 2021 – these figures have been included in the new macroeconomic forecast, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said during a session at the Moscow Financial Forum. “The economy – 4.2% this year is the minimum growth estimate. This is what we […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Fighting inflation of global origin with internal instruments is counterproductive – Oreshkin” – Interfax

Kremlin and River

MOSCOW. Aug 2 (Interfax) – Trying to use internal instruments to curb inflation caused by a temporary wave of global demand is counterproductive and comes at a “high price” for the economy, Kremlin aide Maxim Oreshkin said. “This wave of demand is now passing over the entire global economy, affecting every economy. On one hand, it makes it possible to […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Economy Almost Hits Pre-Coronavirus Levels; GDP was down just 1% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to last year” – Moscow Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

Russia’s economy shrank by 1% in the first quarter of 2021, the Rosstat statistics agency estimated […]

» Read more

Russia’s Dwindling Middle Classes No Catalyst for Shift in Kremlin Foreign Policy

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

Confrontation with the west after the annexation of Crimea, the resulting sanctions and the Kremlin’s focus on macroeconomic stability at the expense of prosperity have entrenched a stagnation […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “One Year On: How Russia’s Coronavirus Lockdown Hit the Economy” – Moscow Times

Covid-19 Coronavirus file photo, adapted from image at cdc.gov

Russia avoided mass unemployment and a sharp fall in GDP but has one of the world’s highest excess death tolls […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Tentative recovery in sight as Russia’s real wages, unemployment improve” – Reuters

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“… [Russia’s] central bank expects the economy to return to pre-crisis levels before the end of [2021] … central bank [governor] Elvira Nabiullina, said … after a surprise 25-basis-point rate increase, brought about by rising inflation and geopolitical risks. … [The government’s] Rosstat[] said … real wages … rose 0.1% year-on-year in January. … Economic growth and … recovery in […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Pandemic Pushed Russians’ Household Finances to Decade Low” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

The coronavirus pandemic pushed Russian living standards to their lowest level in a decade, [according to] new economic data published by the country’s statistics service […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Pivotal moment approaching in coronavirus crisis, situation to start improving – PM Mishustin” – Interfax

Coronavirus File Photo adapted from image at cdc.gov

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is expecting the start of recovery from the socioeconomic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Most Small Businesses Still Struggling, Warns Top Business Lobby; Small companies twice as likely to be hit by pandemic” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

Russia’s small companies [reportedly] were almost twice as likely to suffer negative consequences from the coronavirus pandemic than their larger counterparts […]

» Read more

Is Crimea Now Costing Russia More Than It Is Worth?

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

… Not only did that aggressive breach of international law trigger Western sanctions … the authorities in Moscow also never gave the public an honest estimate of just how much money would need to be spent, nor for how long […]

» Read more

Western Sanctions Have Had ‘Outsized Impact’ On Russian Companies, Economist Says

File Photo of G7 Leaders at Summit, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

… Russian corporations have lost almost $100 billion since sanctions were imposed … following the annexation of Crimea … equivalent to about 4.2 percent of the country’s economy [then] […]

» Read more

Russia’s Next Economic ‘Shock’ Likely To Come From Impoverished Regions, Experts Say

Russia Regions Map

Russia … failed to invest enough in its regions, whose health-care systems are now overwhelmed by the coronavirus pandemic, adding to citizens’ frustration with the government […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “IMF projects below-target inflation in Russia, recommends policy easing in coming months” – Interfax

File Photo of IMF Acronym on Wall Below Row of Circular Lights, adapted from image at state.gov by Steven C. Welsh :: www.stevencwelsh.com :: www.stevencwelsh.info

… acceleration of inflation in Russia in recent months was a temporary occurrence brought about mainly by a weakening ruble; consumer price growth will be below target from now on and the Central Bank should lower its key rate in the coming months, the … IMF[] said […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Pandemic to cease seriously affecting Russia’s economy at start of 2021, budget to be key issue – Belousov”- Interfax

Coronavirus File Photo adapted from image at cdc.gov

MOSCOW. Nov 11 (Interfax) – The coronavirus will very likely cease substantially affecting Russia’s economy by the end of 2020 or early 2021, while the main issue next year will be the budget as well as the necessity to replace budget expenditures with investments, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said on Wednesday during the “Strong Ideas for a New […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Russia’s Economic Recovery Cooled Before Second Wave Struck” – Moscow Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

The impact is forecast to be weaker than the spring outbreak, but authorities have less options to support the economy this time. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – Oct. 22, 2020) Russia’s economic recovery was losing steam even before a second wave of the coronavirus took hold across the country, a fresh batch of official data has shown. […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Pandemic to cost Russia 9% of GDP in 2020-2021 – Siluanov” – Interfax

Anton Siluanov file photo

Measures to combat the coronavirus pandemic and cover the budget revenue shortfall will cost Russia around 9% of its GDP in 2020-2021, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said […]

» Read more

‘Crisis Of Trust’: Russia’s Pandemic Fatigue Combines With Wariness Of Expert Advice

Covid-19 Coronavirus file photo, adapted from image at cdc.gov

Across the world, a growing ‘pandemic fatigue’ appears to be exacerbating the spread of the coronavirus …. Many governments have brought back restrictions they had lifted …. But while many European countries have imposed stringent measures again … Russia has in many ways carried on as normal […]

» Read more

Pandemic has Pushed 6.1 Percent of Middle-Class Russians into Poverty, HSE Experts Say

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, Sept. 26, 2020) The coronavirus pandemic has cut the incomes of 24 percent of the members of the Russian middle class and driven 6.1 percent of them into the ranks of the country’s poor, according to an analysis of Rosstat data by scholars at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. Before the pandemic, […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “How Will a Second Wave Affect Russia’s Economy? The damage won’t be as devastating, but the long-term impacts will linger.” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jake Cordell – Sept. 29, 2020) Russia’s economy should be able to weather the ravages of a second wave of the coronavirus better than the first, economists say, but uncertainty and volatility will remain for the foreseeable future. As Russia records a sharp spike in new infections and Moscow starts to roll out new restrictions […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia to cut defence spending in bid to prop up ailing economy; Continued support for less well-off set to wipe out fiscal surplus of recent years” – Financial Times/ Henry Foy

File Photo of Close-Up of Line of Russian Soldiers in Dress Uniforms for Parade, adapted from image at georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov with credit to Eric Draper

“Russia will spend more on supporting its economy than funding its armed forces next year for the first time since 2014 … ahead of critical parliamentary elections. … [with economic] doldrums … amid low oil prices and western sanctions … [and with the economy] contract[ing] sharply … due to … coronavirus …. The Kremlin announced …  [higher] spending … to […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Crumbling Power Vertical: Decreasing Disposable Income Drives Discontentment” – PONARS Eurasia

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Accumulating evidence points at prospects of growing destabilization at the regional level in Russia. In 2019, five consecutive years of economic stagnation ignited a wave of protests across the country. In 2020, as Russia’s economic situation worsened dramatically due to a pandemic-driven halt to economic activity combined with a fall in oil prices, support for Kremlin appointees might start crumbling […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Russia Upgrades Economic Outlook on Strong Data; The hit to GDP is expected to be less severe than first thought.” – Moscow Times

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Aug. 31, 2020) The Russian government expects the coronavirus to inflict significantly less damage on the country’s economy than it first feared. The Economy Ministry is now predicting GDP will fall by 3.9% in 2020, up from its previous forecast of a 5% contraction, Kommersant reported Monday. Russia’s economy has not taken as big a […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “NES [New Economic School] rector Ruben Yenikolopov: Negative impact of pandemic might be far greater than just drop in GDP [Excerpt]” – Interfax

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Interfax – Aug. 23, 2020) The Russian economy is weathering the trials of the pandemic relatively well so far, with key macro indicators, at any rate, looking better than in many other countries. But statistics can be deceiving. Firstly, they cannot record changes fast enough and, secondly, not all the repercussions for the economy have been felt yet and they […]

» Read more

‘No More than 10’ Russian Regions Now Providing Accurate Coronavirus Data, Mathematical Analysis Shows

Covid-19 Coronavirus file photo, adapted from image at cdc.gov

Over the last month, regions including Moscow are reporting figures that reflect what their leaders have promised but that are improbable when subjected to mathematical analysis […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Economy Shrank 8.5% in Second Quarter – Official Data; Fall in GDP is less severe than government and Central Bank feared” – AFP

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Russia’s economy contracted … 8.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, the state statistics agency [Rosstat] said … in its first assessment of the impact of … coronavirus and an oil crisis. GDP fell in ‘all areas of the economy except agriculture’ … Rosstat … said …, with passenger transport down 79% and the services industry down 37.2% The sharp drop […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Vladimir Putin Is No Mastermind, But He Has Played Russia’s Cards Well; It verges on impossible to forecast what Moscow will do tactically. What it will do strategically, however, is more intelligible and thus more predictable.” – The National Interest/ James Holmes

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“…. The Russian armed forces … have to live within their means. Russia depends heavily on exporting oil and natural gas … [L]ow energy prices constrict … national income and … ability to afford pricey armaments. Prices …  have run off a cliff amid coronavirus lockdowns. … [F]or instance … the Severnoye Design Bureau, a division of the United Shipbuilding […]

» Read more

Russians Don’t Believe Kremlin about Coronavirus or the Economy, New Surveys Show

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

Two new surveys show the collapse of public trust in the powers that be …. [T]he level of trust in Russia today is lower than it has been in 15 years […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Russian imperialism could bring down Putin” – The Hill/ Janusz Bugajski

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“… Putin has based his domestic support on economic growth and restoring the ‘Russian World.’ With the Russian economy in a nosedive, the Kremlin looks increasingly likely to attack a former Soviet neighbor to revive its imperial credentials. … Russia invaded Georgia to divert public attention from the 2008 financial crisis, and … invaded Ukraine to help quash growing protests […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Putin sets new 2030 goals as National Projects scaled back” – bne Intellinews

Kremlin and River

“… Putin has signed a ‘July Decree’ … outlin[ing] … national development goals up to 2030 …. risk[ing] … [failure to] fulfill[] … [his] previous economic platform due to the … COVID-19[] crisis. … [with] deadlines for [the] National Projects spending spree … being pushed from 2024 to 2030. [The new platform] outline[s] five development goals: 1) maintaining the population, […]

» Read more

JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin delays $360bn spending plan as Covid-19 batters economy” – Financial Times/ Henry Foy

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Volte-face comes shortly after vote that allows Russian president to extend his rule for another 16 years.” “… Putin has delayed his flagship … national investment plan by six years as the coronavirus pandemic pitches Russia into recession and leaves a hole in the federal budget. … Putin unveiled the so-called National Projects two years ago as a much-needed Rbs25.7tn […]

» Read more

RUSSIALINK: “Economic crisis likely not to be protracted; not all risks from coronavirus removed yet – Manturov” – Interfax

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

MOSCOW. July 7 (Interfax) – The current signs of recovery suggest that the economy will not become bogged down in a protracted phase of the crisis, Industry and Trade Minister, Denis Manturov, said on Tuesday during the online international industrial marathon, Innoprom, which is a platform uniting exhibition events, online sessions and congresses, as well as educational workshops. “Of course, […]

» Read more
1 2 3 13