The War in Ukraine in a Transitional World Order

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Robert Legvold – Feb. 23, 2024) Robert Legvold is Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus in the department of political science at Columbia University. The fundamental questions raised by the war in Ukraine are like the two sides of a coin: on one side, there is the overarching but largely ignored question of how the war […]

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Peeling Away the Layers of Russian Foreign Policy

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – Kennan Cable No. 87 – William E. Pomeranz – January 2024) William Pomeranz is the Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, Russia’s most recent invasion of Ukraine is fast approaching its two-year anniversary, with no end in sight. Russia continues to put on a brave face on this military and economic quagmire,[1] with Prime […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 17-21, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Things to Know In the past month, Russian forces have gained 16 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine gained 7 square miles, according to calculations by Katherine Davidson, associate of the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force.1Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has this week denied his top general Valery Zaluzhny’s recent claim that the war has reached […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A new nuclear arms race is here: How to slow it down” – Washington Post

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“The world is entering a dangerous nuclear arms race … but it does not have to end in catastrophe. Treaties controlling nuclear arms — verifiable and binding, to limit or reduce stockpiles and prevent miscalculation or error — can lead to more stability. They require political will … that does not exist today. The new factor is China … aspir[ing] […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 27-Nov. 3, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 23-30, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Kremlin stands to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict in three ways, according to Hanna Notte of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. The conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine; it hinders normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; and it helps Russia to style itself as David to the Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia cast U.S. as agent of global instability at military forum” – Washington Post

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Chinese and Russian military officials on Monday criticized the United States as an agent of global instability … Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, … threatened grave consequences over Western involvement in the war in Ukraine. … Shoigu made the remarks at the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, China’s annual international military summit … [China’s] second-highest-ranked military official, Zhang Youxia, also issued oblique […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden is expected to request $100 billion for Israel, Ukraine and other crises” – New York Times

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“The emergency funding request to Congress, which would also include funds to fortify border security, is expected by Friday.” “… Biden [reportedly] is expected to ask Congress … to approve about $100 billion in emergency funds to arm Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan and fortify the U.S.-Mexico border …. The funding request, which lawmakers expect to receive by Friday morning, would […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Worries That Prolonged War in Gaza May Dilute Global Support” – New York Times

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

“Slow military progress and cracks in the backing of key allies could also drain vital attention from Ukraine’s battle with Russia, some fear.” “Ukraine, still locked in fierce combat with Russia along hundreds of miles of front line, also finds itself grappling with … [geopolitical] shifts …. The attention of key allies is pivoting to … Gaza, military aid from […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 2-10, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “An existential threat to Israel could draw American attention away from the Ukrainian cause, possibly smoothing a path toward a Russian triumph in Europe,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write in War on the Rocks. NYT editors raise a related concern, warning that “the violence in Israel may also strengthen calls to cut military aid to Ukraine.” […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Western Firms Continue to Dominate Russian Market in 2023 – Forbes” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Meeting Room Table with Microphones and Chairs, adapted from image at cdc.gov

(Moscow Times – Oct. 2, 2023) U.S., French and German corporations continued to dominate the Russian market in 2023 despite the Western business exodus sparked by the war in Ukraine, according to Forbes Russia’s list of the 50 largest foreign companies in the country. [forbes.ru/biznes/497010-50-krupnejsih-inostrannyh-kompanij-v-rossii-2023-rejting-forbes] The latest ranking, which also saw Chinese companies gain ground, reflects the major geopolitical shifts […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee chair calls Russia-China alliance the biggest threat since WWII” – AP

American Flag and Partial View of U.S. Capitol Dome, adapted from image at aoc.gov

“The chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee said Friday [that regarding] a partnership between the Russian and Chinese leaders … ‘We have never seen a threat this large scale to Europe and the Pacific … since World War II.’ An alliance between … Xi Jinping and … Putin ‘provides a very big challenge I think for the free […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin, Xi and BRICS Allies See Chance to Shake Up World Order” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Dozens of nations have lined up to become members of BRICS.” “… The BRICS bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will use an annual leaders’ summit in Johannesburg … to begin the process of enlisting more members to bolster its global heft, a push driven mainly by Chinese President Xi Jinping but also backed by Russia […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Following Xi’s lead? Russia takes closer look at Chinese ideology.” – Christian Science Monitor

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Is Russia’s future aligned with China? Many in Moscow think so, seeing the two countries’ visions aligning not just geopolitically, but also ideologically – though it may cost Russia considerably.” “… Russia’s turn toward Asia, and China in particular, has been greatly accelerated by souring relations with the West …. Western sanctions [have] made it a matter of urgent necessity […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “BRICS Expansion Plan Draws Interest From More Than 40 Nations” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Flags of BRICS Nations and BRICS Logo from Past Summit

Twenty-two countries … have formally applied to join bloc Putin skipping summit out of consideration for BRICS: Sooklal “More than 40 nations have indicated an interest in joining the BRICS bloc of major developing economies as it seeks to expand to grow its political clout, [according to Anil Sooklal,] South Africa’s ambassador to the group …. Brazil, Russia, India and […]

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Russia in Review, June 30-July 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. has included cluster munitions in its latest $800 million package of military aid to Ukraine. More than 100 countries have signed onto the Convention on Cluster Munitions, vowing to never use them, but the U.S. is not one of them. A significant percentage of the submunitions often fail to detonate, effectively turning them into […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 26-July 5, 2023 – 5 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Even though the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has “progressed more slowly than many had hoped,” the West’s interests “lie in continuing to arm, train and help defend Ukraine in the face of an ongoing threat from Russia ,” according to WP’s editors. One reason for “the slower rate” of Ukraine’s territorial gains is that Ukrainian forces […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is Russia Losing Its Grip on Central Asia? What China’s Growing Regional Ambitions Mean for Moscow” – Foreign Affairs/ Temur Umarov, Alexander Gabuev

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“Last month … [in] a diplomatic milestone … Chinese President Xi Jinping[] … invited … leaders of five Central Asian states to … Xian for their first-ever joint summit with China. … [part of] China’s foray into a region … often referred to … as Russia’s backyard. … [P]raise … Xi and his guests from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Prigozhin’s Insurrection Creates Headaches for Russia-China Alliance, Experts Say” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Moscow Times – Jake Cordell) Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against Moscow will have stoked alarm in China and could throw sand in the wheels of the “no-limits” strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday. After a 24-hour armed insurrection in which Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries seized control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and […]

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Russia Analytical Report, June 12-20, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “Ukrainians’ early setbacks are a sign that their offensive will be a long, deadly grind, and not a repeat of their rout of Russian troops in … Kharkiv region late last summer,” according to a new analysis by WSJ reporters Daniel Michaels and Isabel Cole. “It was always going to be difficult,” said Rob Lee, a […]

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Russia in Review, June 9-16, 2023 – 7 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Pentagon Is Freaking Out About a Potential War With China (Because America might lose.)” – Politico

File Image of Taiwan Map and Taiwanese Urban Landscape, adapted from image at export.gov

“… [A war-game scenario envisions] early morning … massive [Chinese] bombardment … of Taiwan’s navy and air force as the People’s Liberation army and navy mount a massive amphibious assault …. Having taken seriously … Biden’s pledge to defend the island, Beijing also [strikes] pre-emptively at U.S. and allied air bases and ships in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. … even[s] […]

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Russia in Review, May 26-June 2, 2023 – 4 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]

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Kissinger on Russia: Insights and Recommendations

Henry Kissinger File Photo, with Military Officer and Others in Background; adapted from image at defense.gov,; original image was DoD photo by Air Force Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China Draws Russia Closer While Pushing Ukraine Peace Plan” – New York Times

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Xi Jinping meets Russian premier among meetings signaling pushback against Western pressure” “China and Russia moved to solidify their partnership with high-level meetings … in a departure from recent efforts by Beijing to play down its alignment with Moscow as it seeks to play … peacemaker in Ukraine. … Xi Jinping met Wednesday in Beijing with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Outcome of the War in Ukraine Depends on China and India” – The Nation

Asia Map

“Whether Americans like it or not, this country will have little choice but to begin planning for an emerging world order.” “… Amid the seemingly never-ending catastrophe of the war in Ukraine, it’s become increasingly evident that China and India are likely to shape its final resolution. Russia can’t keep fighting without … [their] support … thanks to their refusal […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 17-24, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.” – Foreign Policy/ Agathe Demarais

File Image of Artist's Conception of Globe with Curved Connecting Lines of Light Passing Through Space, adapted from image at fincen.gov

“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]

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Still ‘No Limits’? The China-Russia Partnership After Samarkand

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Elizabeth Wishnick – Sept. 22, 2022) Elizabeth Wishnick is a senior research scientist at CNA and a professor of political science at Montclair State University.This month’s meeting between the Chinese and Russian presidents on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan has led to renewed scrutiny of the scope and depth of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing” – Foreign Affairs

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

To Deter a Ukraine Invasion, Washington’s Threats Need to Be Tougher […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia team up to establish joint moon base” – Asia Times

File Photo of Surface of Moon with Earth in Distance, adapted from NASA image

China and Russia’s plans can be seen as a response to their exclusion from the U.S. Artemis Accords […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Hope for Iran Nuclear Talks Now Rests on China, Russia” – WSJ

Iran Map and Flag

“Beijing has greater economic clout and more aggressive foreign policy than during original talks for 2015 deal.” “… Even as U.S. tensions mount with Russia … and … China … Western officials acknowledge that the fastest route to increasing economic and political pressure on Tehran’s new hard-line government runs through Moscow and especially Beijing. China helped Iran stabilize its economy […]

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China’s Arctic Ambitions Could Make or Break U.S.-Russian Relations in the Region

File Photo of Arctic Fox Running Across Snow, adapted from image at USGS.gov, with photo credit to Mike Lockart and USGS

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Ingrid Burke Friedman – Dec. 1, 2021) Ingrid Burke Friedman is a fellow at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and Features Editor at JURIST Legal News & Commentary. She previously served as a consular officer with the U.S. State Department. While U.S.-Russian relations continue to deteriorate in many spheres, the Arctic […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia, China sign roadmap for closer military cooperation” – AP

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Russia’s defense chief [Sergei Shoigu] … signed a roadmap for closer military ties with China …. Russia has sought to expand ties with China as … relations with the U.S. and its allies sank to post-Cold War lows over … [Russia’s] annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea[], accusations of Russian hacking attacks, interference in elections and other disputes. … Russia and China […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Glasgow Deals Prompt Russia Rethink on Coal Plans, Carbon Tax” – Bloomberg/ Evgenia Pismennaya, Yuliya Fedorinova

Graphics Depicting Carbon Compounds and Water Molecules, adapted from image at nasa.gov

“Russia will look to cut its ambitious goals for boosting coal production … and consider imposing a carbon tax or other regulation in the wake of … the COP26 summit … according to two officials familiar with the plans. But Russia won’t join the global agreement to reduce methane emissions, [they] said, speaking on condition of anonymity …. [Russia] is […]

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The Collapse of the Afghan Government Provides a Challenge for China and Russia, Not a Windfall

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Elizabeth Wishnick – Nov. 1, 2021) Elizabeth Wishnick is Professor of Political Science at Montclair State University. The collapse of the Afghan government and takeover by the Taliban is not a net win for China and Russia, nor will these developments automatically cement their partnership. Today, Chinese and Russian officials see the swift collapse of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Shows Its Growing Sway Over Global Energy Markets” – Wall Street Journal

Gas Flame file photo

Moscow’s huge oil and gas reserves have given it more influence over Western and Chinese economies grappling with rising prices […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Western Coronavirus Vaccines May Be Coming to Russia – Kommersant” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Blue-Gloved Hand Holding Syringe and Injecting Arm, adapted from image at nih.gov

The move to relax import rules could potentially allow Russians to have Western coronavirus jabs … as well as Chinese vaccines […]

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Iran Cements Alliance With China, Russia In Clear Message To Washington

Iran Map and Flag

The seismic, multi-generational Iran-China deal is set for full roll-out. Full membership of the economic, military and political, SCO alliance will lead to major strategic investments in Iran’s up-and-downstream sectors […]

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View From The Ground: Russia’s Ulyanovsk Region Highlights Limits Of China-Russia Ties

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

From big gas projects to closer military cooperation and improved bilateral trade that reached a record of more than $110 billion in 2019, the China-Russia relationship has reached new heights [. ..]

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Russian Attitudes Toward West Improve Despite Feelings of Isolation

Mercator Projection Satellite Image of Earth

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Aleksandra Srdanovic – Sept. 21, 2021) Aleksandra Srdanovic is a graduate student at Harvard University and a student associate with Russia Matters. The Levada Center recently polled Russians on their attitudes toward Russia’s general standing in the international community, as well as their attitudes toward strategic competitors and countries within the post-Soviet neighborhood. Polling shows […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Economic Reality Is Dragging Russia Toward Climate Acceptance” – Bloomberg

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“Europe’s border tax and China’s carbon-neutral ambitions might just force a fossil fuel giant to face climate facts.” “… Sooner than expected, Putin’s hydrocarbon-dependent regime has found itself watching key markets slip away as China targets net-zero emissions and Europe introduces measures including a levy on heavy industry imports that fail to meet its climate protection standards. Having lauded the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “IMEMO Director Feodor Voitolovsky: A new system of coordinates is a challenge for the modern world order” – Interfax

Mercator Projection Satellite Image of Earth

(Interfax – May 31, 2021) The Primakov Readings, organized by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, will take place in Moscow on June 8-9. The topic of the 2021 readings is “Challenges to the Contemporary World Order”. Interfax is an information partner of the Primakov Readings 2021. IMEMO Director Feodor Voitolovsky […]

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Putin’s Aggressiveness Uniting West against Russia and Powering Its Search for Modus Vivendi with China, Shevtsova Says

File Photo of G7 Leaders at Summit, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

Putin’s aggressively anti-Western posture is helping the West to recover its lost self-discipline and unity […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Military Seeks to Outmuscle U.S. in Arctic” – Wall Street Journal

File Photo of Polar Bear on Snow with Bare Ground in the Background, adapted from image at nasa.gov with photo credit to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/Eric Regehr

“For Moscow it is the last geopolitical battleground where it holds the advantage over Washington and Beijing” “… [N]ew and refurbished bases [are] meant to service the Kremlin’s ambitions in the resource-rich Arctic. … combined to form a new military district … under … the Northern Fleet, Russia’s foremost Arctic naval force[] … [with fleet] headquarters … on the Kola […]

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