Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is Russia Losing Its Grip on Central Asia? What China’s Growing Regional Ambitions Mean for Moscow” – Foreign Affairs/ Temur Umarov, Alexander Gabuev

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“Last month … [in] a diplomatic milestone … Chinese President Xi Jinping[] … invited … leaders of five Central Asian states to … Xian for their first-ever joint summit with China. … [part of] China’s foray into a region … often referred to … as Russia’s backyard. … [P]raise … Xi and his guests from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Despite war, post-Soviet states find breaking up with Russia hard to do” – Christian Science Monitor/ Fred Weir

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

… [At this year’s Victory Day parade,] Putin was joined … by the leaders of seven other post-Soviet countries, including all five former Soviet Central Asian republics, plus Armenia and Belarus. After more than a year of severe stress, many of those countries have sought to distance themselves from embattled Moscow and find alternative avenues for trade, political connections, and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse; Not planning for the possibility of disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination.” – Foreign Policy/ Alexander J. Motyl

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Ever since Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv and install a puppet government failed in the early days of the war, a defeat for the Kremlin in Ukraine has looked increasingly likely. What’s stunning … is the near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia. … considering the potential for Russia’s […]

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In Kazakhstan Upheaval, Economic Grievances Collide With Tricky Transfer of Power

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Peter Leonard – Jan. 12, 2022 Peter Leonard is the Central Asia editor at Eurasianet.org. Kazakhstan has never in its brief post-independence history looked so vulnerable. Last week’s unrest—which has led to dozens of deaths and nearly 10,000 arrests—saw the country’s leadership come under assault from three directions: below, within and abroad. The first murmurs […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia-Led Troops to Begin Leaving Kazakhstan in 2 Days — President” – AFP

Almaty file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

“… Tokayev said Tuesday that a contingent of Russia-led [CSTO] forces would begin leaving … in two days … the pullout … tak[ing] no more than 10 days. … [M]ore than 2,000 troops [were] d[i]spatched at the peak of the crisis … after armed clashes between government opponents and security forces and a looting spree [left] parts of the largest […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kazakh leader: Russia-led security group to pull out troops” – AP

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“The president of Kazakhstan announced Tuesday that [the] Russia-led security alliance [Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), including six former Soviet states,] will start pulling out its troops [from Kazakhstan] … in two days …. Protests over soaring fuel prices erupted in the oil and gas-rich Central Asian nation of 19 million on Jan. 2 and quickly spread across the country […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Putin Seizes on Crises to Assert Control Over Former Soviet Republics” – WSJ

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“In tightening grip over neighbors, president seeks to signal that his country is a superpower to be both feared and respected.” “… The [Russian-led CSTO] venture into Kazakhstan, at the request of the country’s leader, follows nearly 15 years of Russian interventionism in Georgia, Belarus, Ukraine and elsewhere aimed at pulling [them] even closer to Russia … propping up [Kremlin-aligned] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kazakhstan Unrest and Russia’s Intervention Transform Ties With Moscow” – WSJ

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“As violence grows, the Russian military deployment injects a new element into the crisis in the former Soviet republic.” “… Nazarbayev steered the country along two tracks[,] [a]t home, … strengthen[ing] … Kazakh identity and weaken[ing] Russia’s historic influence[,] [while, in] foreign and defense policy … hew[ing] close to the Kremlin, assuring Russia … Kazakhstan would always remain a strategic […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kazakhstan protests mark end of Nazarbayev era” – Financial Times

File Photo of Hillary Rodham Clinton with Nazarbayev

“Former president’s handpicked successor takes control of security forces and turns to Russia for help.” “… protests that have shaken Kazakhstan may mark the end of [81-year-old] Nursultan Nazarbayev’s long grip on power — but do not suggest the oil-rich central Asian country will make a smooth transition from autocratic rule. Nazarbayev had ruled the country for most of Kazakhstan’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: In Kazakhstan, Putin Again Seizes on Unrest to Try to Expand Influence” – New York Times

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“But a series of revolts against a pro-Russian strongman could also plant the seeds of rebellion at home, analysts say.” “… The arrival in Kazakhstan of 2,500 troops from a Russian-led military alliance amid … violent protest was the fourth time in … two years … Moscow has flexed its muscle in neighboring states — Belarus, Armenia and Ukraine being […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2022” – Moscow Times

Satellite

The Moscow Times asked 10 commentators for their predictions for the coming year […]

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The Collapse of the Afghan Government Provides a Challenge for China and Russia, Not a Windfall

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo – Elizabeth Wishnick – Nov. 1, 2021) Elizabeth Wishnick is Professor of Political Science at Montclair State University. The collapse of the Afghan government and takeover by the Taliban is not a net win for China and Russia, nor will these developments automatically cement their partnership. Today, Chinese and Russian officials see the swift collapse of […]

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Chaos, Not Taliban, Main Danger in Afghanistan, Moscow Military Expert Says

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Aug. 25, 2021) It is a mistake to see the Taliban and even a Taliban government as the main dangers emanating from Afghanistan, Ivan Konovalov says. The main danger is chaos, something likely because the Taliban is far from a well-organized and disciplined force and is far from being in control of […]

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FSU Analysts Assess the Impact of Events in Afghanistan on Russia and U.S.-R.F. Relations

File Photo of Kabul, Afghanistan, Residential Area, adapted from image at defense.gov

The perspectives of Russia’s non-government Middle East experts on … the Taliban and its impact on Russia appear to be more varied than those of Russian diplomats and … other official counterparts. [This post] compiled a selection of such views, along … [those of some] Western FSU watchers […]

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RUSSIALINK: “As Chaos Engulfs Kabul, Russia Says It’s Ready to Work With the Taliban” – Moscow Times

Afghanistan houses aerial view, adapted from image at state.gov

Moscow has a history of pragmatism toward the Islamist militia and appears well placed for a transition in Afghanistan. (Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Felix Light, Pjotr Sauer – Aug. 16, 2021) In the day since a Taliban offensive swept away the U.S.-backed Afghan government, Russian officials are taking satisfaction from their principle global adversary’s humiliation as they prepare to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kyrgyzstan Sets New Polls as New PM Reassures Russia” – AFP

Bishkek file image, adapted from image at state.gov

“Kyrgyzstan’s electoral authorities said … parliamentary polls … would be repeated [Dec. 20] …. [A]cting leader Sadyr Japarov moved to assure Russia of the two countries’ strategic partnership. … [The] previous [Kyrgyzstan] vote was annulled over political chaos that unseated a president and rattled Russia. … Allegations of vote-buying … raised by international monitors and losing parties sparked a protest […]

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Thousands Back In Bishkek Streets Demanding ‘Clean’ Politicians For New Government

Bishkek file image, adapted from image at state.gov

(Article text ©2020 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – BISHKEK, Oct. 7, 2020 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/kyrgyzstan-fresh-protest-bishkek-clean-politicians-new-government/30880061.html) Thousands have headed back onto the streets in Kyrgyzstan as rival opposition factions look to gain power after violent mass protests forced the annulment of weekend election results over alleged vote buying and prompted the prime minister […]

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Levada Poll: 1/2 of Russians Support Idea of ‘Russia for Russians,’ About 1/5 Would Not Let in Chinese, Ukrainians

Map of Russia and Russian Flag adapted from images at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – Sept. 23, 2020) Slightly more than half (51%) of Russians either support implementing the idea of “Russia for [ethnic] Russians” or think it would be good to implement “within reasonable limits,” according to a Levada Center poll of 1,600 people in 137 localities across 50 of Russia’s 80-plus regions conducted Aug. 20-26, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Colin Powell suggests media had ‘hysterical’ reaction to Russian bounty reports” – New York Post/ Sam Dorman

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

“… Colin Powell indicated … that media figures overreacted to a recent report that Russian officials placed bounties on … U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. ‘What I know is that our military commanders on the ground did not think that it was as serious a problem as the newspapers were reporting and television was reporting,’ Powell [said] … ‘It got kind […]

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AUDIO JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Denies Allegations It Paid Militants To Kill U.S. Troops As ‘Nonsense'” – NPR/ Lucian Kim

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

“… The Russian Foreign Ministry said the initial … New York Times [story] demonstrated the ‘low intellectual abilities of U.S. intelligence propagandists.’ … Putin[] spokesman[] Dmitry Peskov[] called subsequent reports ‘hoaxes’ … damag[ing] the reputation of the media that publish them.  Russian officials spend a lot of time refuting allegations of malfeasance, from the poisoning of a former Russian spy […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why we need a little skepticism, and more evidence, on Russian bounties” – The Hill/ David B. Rivkin, Jr., George S. Beebe

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

“… [1][H]ow credible are the sources? … not very. … militants and criminals captured and interrogated by Afghanistan’s government. … Captured militants frequently tell … interrogators things they hope … [bring] lenient treatment. Others relate … little more than hearsay. … [2][W]hat other information might support or disconfirm the allegations? …. [I]f the Times report of large financial transfers … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Kremlin’s View of U.S.’s War in Afghanistan Has Shifted” – Wall Street Journal/ Alan Cullison

File Photo of U.S. NATO Troops Atop Ridge in Afghanistan

“Deteriorating U.S.-Russian ties adversely affect a once-shared goal, leading to a U.S. intelligence assessment of bounties paid to Taliban.” “For years … the U.S. and Russia shared a goal of deposing the Taliban government and hunting down its remnants …. [T]hat … crumbled … amid mutual suspicion and U.S. plans to leave Afghanistan with the Taliban undefeated. Today… [there is] […]

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What Does Russia Want In Afghanistan?

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

… Trump tweeted that the intelligence reports were not deemed credible and the Kremlin and the Taliban have rejected reports alleging that officers of the GRU – Russia’s foreign military intelligence — either paid or offered money for killing American soldiers […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Return to Kabul? Russian Policy in Afghanistan” – David G. Lewis/ George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies

Soviet Era Afghan Soldiers with Flag

“… Moscow has publicly supported the current U.S.-Taliban peace talks … [yet] has a very different perspective from the U.S. … influenced by geography and history. Russia’s current strategic posture is informed by a long history of relations with Afghanistan and above all … the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979, a strategic and military failure … still fresh in […]

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In New ‘Great Game.’ West Wants to Use Central Asia against Russia and China, Vinnik Says

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, March 20, 2020) When the USSR disintegrated, Western countries tried to establish conventional relations with the countries of Central Asia, setting up military bases and expanding security arrangements in order to strengthen the independence of these regimes both internally and from Moscow, Dmitry Vinnik says. But that policy has failed, according to […]

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Post-Soviet State Responses to COVID-19: Making or Breaking Authoritarianism?

Coronavirus File Photo adapted from image at cdc.gov

(PONARS Eurasia – Marlene Laruelle, Madeline McCann – March 24, 2020) Marlene Laruelle is Research Professor, Director of the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES), Director of the Central Asia Program, and Co-director of PONARS Eurasia at George Washington University. Madeline McCann is Program Coordinator for PONARS Eurasia at George Washington University. (PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Pandemics are […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin wants new connection between Arctic coast and Indian Ocean; The construction of a railway line to Sabetta is what is needed, the president argues” – The Barents Observer/ Atle Staalesen

Asia Map

“… ‘The idea is to connect the ports on the Northern Sea Route with the ports of the Pacific and Indian Oceans by means of transport arterials through Eastern Siberia, the heartlands of Eurasia,’ … [Putin said to Valdai] conference participants. … [such as] Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, King of Jordan Abdullah II, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Filipinian leader […]

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Russia Becoming Part of Central Asia after Trying to Leave It Behind, Kuzmin Says

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, July 23, 2019) Many Russians were pleased that the demise of the Soviet Union meant that the rapidly growing Muslim populations of the Central Asian republics were beyond the state borders of the Russian Federation and thus would no longer be a brake on the desire of Russians for development and even […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian general warns of Central Asia ‘crisis’ by 2020” – Interfax

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

(Interfax – May 15, 2019) A senior Russian general has issued a warning about the worsening security situation in Central Asia, including in Afghanistan, suggesting the region could experience a crisis by next year. “In the Central Asia strategic zone there remains a steady tendency of a worsening military-political situation, which by 2020 is capable of reaching crisis-level significance,” Col-Gen […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia sees major integration capacity in China’s One Belt One Road project – Putin” – Interfax

Map of China and Environs, adapted from image at cdc.gov

SOCHI. May 13 (Interfax) – The relations between Russia and China are developing successfully, while Moscow views China’s One Belt – One Road initiative as fruitful and substantive, Russian President Vladimir Putin said. “At the beginning of talks I would like to convey the best wishes to my friend [Chinese President Xi Jinping] for warmness, with which we have been […]

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RUSSIALINK TRANSCRIPT: “[Putin] News conference following working visit to China” – KremlinRu

Asia Map

(Kremlin.ru – April 27, 2019 – en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/60396) Vladimir Putin spoke to journalists following the Roundtable discussions at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon. There will be no opening remarks. I am ready to answer your questions. Question: Good afternoon. The Belt and Road is a very ambitious project – to the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin lauds China infrastructure initiative, warming ties” – AP

Map of China and Environs, adapted from image at cdc.gov

“… Putin praised China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative … underscoring warming ties between the neighboring powers. Putin’s comments … to a forum in Beijing appeared to downplay the potential for tensions between China and Russia. … [and] reflect Beijing and Moscow’s shared resistance to U.S. global influence. The Belt and Road is rapidly expanding China’s economic footprint in Central […]

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Hearing on “An Emerging China-Russia Axis? Implications for the United States in an Era of Strategic Competition” – U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

March 21, 2019 The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: Hearing on “An Emerging China-Russia Axis? Implications for the United States in an Era of Strategic Competition” [Text with video and links to testimony: uscc.gov/Hearings/emerging-china-russia-axis-implications-united-states-era-strategic-competition] Agenda Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 419 9:30 AM – 9:35 AM: Opening Remarks: Chairman Bartholomew and Commissioner Kamphausen 9:35 AM – 11:05 AM: Panel […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China, Russia Stand to Gain From Kazakhstan’s Political Transition; New president aims to maintain nation’s security ties to Moscow, economic links to Beijing” – Wall Street Journal/ Ann M. Simmons, Thomas Grove

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“A smooth political transition after the unexpected resignation of Kazakhstan’s longtime leader serves the interests of neighboring Russia and China …. [S]ince the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has shouldered the region’s military burden, while China has provided the impulse for economic growth, a system Kazakhstan has embraced …. On Tuesday, Nursultan Nazarbayev, a 78-year-old autocrat who has ruled […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Nazarbayev to retain position of Kazakh Security Council head, Nur Otan party leader” – Interfax

File Photo of Nursultan Nazarbayev and Barack Obama with Flags

ASTANA. March 19 (Interfax) – Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has stepped down as Kazakh president, will carry on as chief of the country’s Security Council. “You have put your trust in me all these years. I was happy to serve the people. I bow my head and express gratitude. I worked hard to fulfill the will of the people. I will […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The New Cold War’s Warm Friends; Why Chinese and Russian detente may be here to stay” – Foreign Policy Magazine/ Chris Miller

Asia Map

“… Fifty years later, the situation has reversed. China and Russia have settled … border disputes and … become fast friends. Their main area of agreement: opposition to the United States …. The last era of partnership between China and the Soviet Union lasted scarcely a decade before descending toward war …. [T]oday’s Russia-China entente may prove more durable. … […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Lessons for Leaders: What Afghanistan Taught Russian and Soviet Strategists ” – Russia Matters/ Simon Saradzhyan

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

“… the Soviet leadership made a number of mistakes, first when contemplating whether to intervene in Afghanistan, then during the intervention and, finally, when withdrawing the troops. Some of these mistakes were particularly costly, such as the failure to take full stock either of the hierarchy of vital national interests at stake in Afghanistan or of the costs and benefits […]

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RUSSIALINK TRANSCRIPT: “[Putin at] Meeting with representatives of the public: the Housing and Urban Environment national project” – KremlinRu

Kazan file photo

(Kremlin.ru – February 12, 2019) During his trip to Tatarstan, Vladimir Putin visited the Moskovsky Centre of Culture and Sports in Kazan where he met with representatives of the public. The President said in his opening remarks that he was beginning a series of meetings with the public on the implementation of national projects. The meeting in Kazan focused on […]

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Russia and China Beyond Realpolitik: The Bond of Respect and Values

Asia Map

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Jeanne L. Wilson – February 4, 2019) Jeanne Wilson teaches at Wheaton College where she is the Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of Russian studies, a professor of political science and coordinator of the school’s international relations major. She is the author of “Strategic Partners: Russian-Chinese Relations in the Post-Soviet Era.”  This op-ed is part of a new debate from […]

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NEWSLINK: “Jihadists from Ex-Soviet Central Asia: Where Are They? Why Did They Radicalize? What Next?” – Russia Matters/Edward Lemon, Vera Mironova, William Tobey

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“… This research paper attempts to answer four basic sets of questions adapted from the ones mentioned in the foreword: (1) Is Central Asia becoming a new source of violent extremism that transcends borders, and possibly continents? (2) If so, why? What causes nationals of Central Asia to take up arms and participate in political violence? (3) As IS has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia’s awkward romance” – Washington Post/Jonathan Hillman

Asia Map

“… China still towers above Russia in economic and demographic terms. With a long history of invasions, Russia’s paranoia about foreign powers approaching its borders will not vanish overnight. … Russian policymakers must be persuaded to take China’s economic power as seriously as the West’s military power. China’s grand ambitions run through Russia and its neighbors, but its investments and […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Challenges U.S. in Hosting Taliban at Afghan Talks” – Bloomberg/Henry Meyer, Eltaf Najafizada

File Photo of U.S. NATO Troops Atop Ridge in Afghanistan

“Russia is challenging the U.S. by hosting the Taliban at a Moscow peace conference in the latest source of friction …. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who pressed Russia to cancel a similar meeting in September, sent four senior members of his nation’s High Peace Council … * * * Russia, which backs Taliban demands for a pullout of American forces, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Reaches Out to Afghan Leaders for Taliban Talks, Angering Kabul” – Reuters

Afghanistan Map of Ethnicities

“Russia has quietly invited a group of senior Afghan politicians to talks with the Taliban in Moscow, bypassing President Ashraf Ghani’s government in a move that has angered officials in Kabul who say it could muddle the U.S.-backed peace process. … confirmed … by six of the eight leaders, who include former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, or their aides, and […]

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