Re: [UTExpertsDiscGrp] Straight talk about Russian aggression in Ukraine
Subject: Re: [UTExpertsDiscGrp] Straight talk about Russian aggression in Ukraine
Date: Wed, 8 Jul 2015
From: ‘Andrei Liakhov’ via “Untimely Thoughts” – An Expert Discussion Group on Russia
The course for violent (in some form) confrontation was set when in mid-to-LATE JANUARY 2014 “Luhansk partisans” (a 100% local group) emerged as a response to the local right sector and captured Artemievsk and Slaviansk armories which in combination housed weapons and ammo for 3 Soviet armies of full combat strength. In addition Artemijevsk armory is one of the oldest in Europe. When I visited there in 2011 I was shown parts of it which remained sealed since 1916.
This, by the way, explains, inter alia, the amount of old and obsolete artillery pieces (as shown on TV) used by the separatists/terrorists/volunteers (cross out the extra according to your political inclinations).
Girkin and his volunteer force emerged at least a month later.
Furthermore the initial local resistance force was well funded and, in part, armed and supplied by a group of local oligarchs who wanted to protect their assets from raids by the Western radicals who were at the time (much less so now) enforcers of a group of Western Ukrainian oligarghs who were at that time seizing assets left, right and center.
The “morale” of my tuppence is that undoubtedly conflict in Eastern Ukraine has local origin and initially was another robber barons “razborka” over assets rather than anything else. A combination of sheer local shortsightedness, false hopes raised by the Crimean situation, breach of national (very fragile) accord which was the backbone of post 1991 Ukraine by Western oligarghs who came to power in February 2014 are the prime reasons for the conflict. Please remember, that in 2004 Timoshenko was advocating sending her armed fighters to “pacify Eastern Ukraine”. A lot of credit must be given to Yuschenko who in very plain language told her (and Yatseniuk and Turchinov) that he would not run for Presidency if force is used against East Ukrainian protesters. Yes, there was no Crimea in 2004 and Kuchma corruption was baby talk in comparison to Yanukovitch, but still, a threat of something similar was very palpably obvious. Americans did not insist on use of force in the East either – relationship with Moscow was good, DC needed Kremlin’s cooperation in a lot of things and there was no Obama.
All of that changed in 2014.