NEWSWATCH: “Why We Need Kremlinology Again. How a careful study of behind-the-scenes power struggles can open a window into a closed society” – The American Interest/ Anders Aslund
The increasing opacity of Russian politics has opened a window of opportunity for Kremlinology to make a comeback. … I see Kremlinology as the formalized study of hard facts in a closed society, observing appointments, organization, decrees, and formal speeches. Kremlinology has no role in an open society, but Russia today is no open society, though it is far from Soviet. * * * Through his radical reorganizations, Putin has showed his preference for the FSO, the National Guard, and Kadyrov. But the opposite, FSB side dominates the 12-member Security Council …. Putin needs to change either the composition of the Security Council fast or make it unimportant …. Otherwise Putin will sooner or later be ousted. … The Security Council should be front and center in current analysis of Russian politics, but analysts tend to ignore it
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The sacking of Ivanov came as a complete surprise to all, apart from us Kremlinologists, who saw this serious tension at the heart of the Kremlin, which became evident at the time of the murder of Boris Nemtsov at the Kremlin wall on February 27, 2015.