NEWSWATCH: “Russia Achieves Tactical Success in the Middle East, But No Strategic Victory; Russia needs good ties with the West more than short-term gains in Ukraine and Syria” – Thomas Graham/YaleGlobal Online
… From the beginning of its military operation in Syria, Moscow has operated on the now indisputable proposition that … rampant unrest in the Middle East and … mounting challenges to the unity of the European Union are inextricably linked. The wager was that Europe would eventually seize an offer of cooperation in Syria to constrict the migrant flow and contain the terrorist threat and that such cooperation would sap Europe’s aversion to Russian behavior in Ukraine, leading to a decision to ease sanctions, if not lift them …. * * * In Syria, Russia has secured its military bases on the Mediterranean. … it has rallied the beleaguered forces of … al-Assad. * * * Russia stands at the center of negotiations on a political transition, which provide cover for its actions on the ground ….
* * * As Western frustration with Kiev grows, Moscow is entrenching its clients in the Donbas. Moreover, the Russians have largely succeeded in removing the annexation of Crimea as an urgent point of contention ….
* * * For Moscow, the Middle East presents an alarming array of potential threats and strategic puzzles. * * * But sanctions relief, even if accompanied by a steady rise in oil prices, will not produce the long-term growth Russia needs. The economy has been on an accelerating downward trajectory … well before the imposition of sanctions and when oil prices were hovering around $100 a barrel. As Russia’s leading economists argue, what Russia needs is a new growth model ….