NEWSWATCH: “Dealing with a simmering Ukraine-Russia conflict” – Brookings/Fiona Hill, Steven Pifer
A major foreign policy challenge that will confront the new U.S. administration from day one is Ukraine and its conflict with Russia. … Minsk II … that was to end the fighting in … Donbas … has yet to be implemented. There is little sign that Moscow wants a settlement, apparently preferring a ‘simmering’ rather than ‘frozen’ conflict, where it can turn the heat up or down to pressure Kyiv. This ongoing conflict and perpetual state of uncertainty distracts the Ukrainian government from much-needed domestic reforms.
* * * … It remains in the U.S. interest to support Ukraine and to continue the current policy course …. The United States should, at a minimum: insist that Kyiv accelerate reform and anti-corruption efforts … continue current military aid to Ukraine and consider provision of defensive arms … maintain pressure on Moscow to comply with Minsk II … keep U.S. policy aligned with Europe … be ready to enter the negotiating process if/when a prospect emerges for a solution to the Donbas conflict; avoid displacing Germany and France in the negotiations and make sure that Ukraine is present … continue the policy of non-recognition of Crimea’s illegal annexation by Russia. … settlement of the conflict in Ukraine will be a prerequisite for any restoration of normalcy in U.S.-Russian relations. This policy thus needs to be designed to be patient and persistent.