JRL NEWSBLOG: Putin’s Decay
[Putin’s Decay – Gordon Hahn – Moscow Times – July 12, 2013 – http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putins-decay/483044.html – Gordon Hahn, senior associate of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, is author of “Russia’s Revolution From Above” and “Russia’s Islamic Threat]
In his Moscow Times Op-Ed, “Putin’s Decay,” Gordon Hahn of CSIS raises concern over what he describes as “Putin 2.0” pushing deeper into authoritarianism:
Putin 2.0 has turned a corner, pushing the country further in the direction of authoritarianism. Rather than following the strategy of gradual liberalization and democratization under a second presidential term under Dmitry Medvedev, President Vladimir Putin chose the worst of all options. He decided not just to return to the presidency but to rollback much of Medvedev’s thaw and begin a crackdown on opposition forces.
According to Hahn, Putin already had practiced “soft authoritarianism” in the past. Yet in his third presidential term, Putin’s “screw-tightening” has stepped up, exemplified by an assortment of new laws, complemented by the state’s impact upon the media massaging public reaction:
After returning to the Kremlin in 2012, Putin … initiated a crack-down on the opposition and civil society. At first, the screw-tightening was limited to constraining political behavior that Putin found objectionable … [then] a whole series of oppressive laws adopted in the past year is moving Russia into a era of greater authoritarianism, taking the country even further from the soft authoritarianism of Putin’s first two terms … The State Duma, with Putin’s support, has criminalized speech that “offends” religious believers. New laws with sweeping definitions of slander and “homosexual propaganda” further restrict free speech. Some will object, saying that opinion polls show the populace supports such measures, but this must be countered by the regime’s hegemony in the media sphere, especially television. State media campaigns against independent journalists complete the picture of an increasingly stifled atmosphere that risks crushing freedom of speech and expression.
Hahn faults Obama and the West as contributing to negative domestic developments in Russian politics, or failing to support positive trends. Yet Putin himself is said to deserve the bulk of the blame:
… some blame for Putin’s turn to greater authoritarianism can be pinned on the West .. First, … Obama should have expressed more support for Medvedev’s liberalization programs. This might have made Putin more of a stakeholder … Instead, the Obama administration remained largely silent about Russian domestic political developments.
Second, a debacle was created by Medvedev’s decision to abstain, instead of vetoing, the United Nations Security Council resolution establishing a no-fly zone in Libya, a move that might have been taken against Putin’s will. … The West’s manipulation of the Security Council resolution put Russia in a weak position and exacerbated Putin’s concerns about Medvedev’s growing reformism and pro-Western orientation. …
But Putin deserves the bulk of the blame for the ongoing retrenchment when he overreacted to the Libya scenario and the street protests in Moscow. Political demonstrations are viewed by the leadership not as the natural reaction to its own missteps, but rather as part of a Western plot to dismember Russia.
Hahn raises the caveat that, with the internet and a growing Russian “development gap” as contributing factors, public opposition will continue to grow, eventually forcing either Putin’s removal or harsher repression. Ultimately Putin could even be prevented from crafting an honorable exit with a successor friendly to his legacy.
Click here for full article: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putins-decay/483044.html