Interfax: Russian GDP grows 1.2% in Q3 – Rosstat

MOSCOW. Nov 12 (Interfax) – Russia’s gross domestic product expanded 1.2% year-on-year last quarter, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said on Tuesday.

That was in line with what the Economic Development Ministry had calculated for the period – 1.2%.

Rosstat did not report January-September GDP dynamics.

Judging from the data for Q1 (1.6% year-on-year growth), Q2 (1.2%), and Q3, January-September growth might be estimated at roughly 1.3%.

The persistent annual growth rate in Q3 was against the backdrop of a lower Q3 2012 base, which was a result of ministry expectations of accelerating Q3 growth that did not come to pass. Now the ministry expects acceleration in Q4. Economic growth was 4.8% in Q1 last year, 4.3% in Q2, 3.0% in Q3, and 2.1% in Q4. Russian GDP expanded 3.4% last year as a whole.

In its monthly monitoring of the state of the Russian economy in January-September, the Economic Development Ministry said that in September – excluding the seasonal and calendar factors – GDP contracted about 0.1% for a second straight month. “Behind this decrease was a negative (excluding the seasonal factor) dynamic of construction, agriculture, trade and for-pay services for the population. The growth in food and utilities that resumed in connection with autumn cooling could not offset zero rates in the production of recoverable resources and accelerating slide in manufacturing, which affected a halt to growth in industrial production generally (seasonal factor excluded). For a second month in a row, investment demand showed a negative dynamic, with the seasonal and calendar factors excluded,” the ministry said.

Excluding the seasonal and calendar factors, Q3 GDP contracted 0.2% after expanding 0.1% in Q2 and 0.2% in Q1.

The ministry is keeping its GDP growth for this year at 1.8%. Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said last month that this is an optimistic forecast, and growth could end up below 1.5% if current trends persist. Klepach said economic growth would have to speed up to 3% or even higher in Q4 in order to achieve 1.8% growth for the year. “We so far proceed from the forecast that we have, although right now we are lower than we expected,” he said.

Analysts told Interfax in a consensus forecast at the beginning of November that they thought GDP in Russia would grow 1.6% this year.