Gaidar Forum returns with stellar line-up

(Moscow News – themoscownews.com – Nathan Gray – January 15, 2013)

The fourth annual Gaidar Forum kicks off at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and State Administration on Wednesday, bringing together Russian and international economic leaders to discuss key policy issues around the theme of “Russia and the World: The Challenges of Integration.”

The forum grew out of conferences held during the century’s first decade, and is named for former Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar, one of the proponents of the “shock therapy” of the 1990s.

Since 2010, the main theme has been about Russia’s economic place in the world, focusing on a different aspect. This year, following August’s accession to the World Trade Organization and December’s assumption of the presidency of the G20, the integration aspect is an apt topic.

One of the most notable changes between the 2012 forum and this year’s is, of course, the return of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin. Still, according to Renaissance Capital analyst Ivan Tchakarov, political subjects are likely to be on the back burner.

“I really doubt the past political cycle will have an effect on the discussions,” he told The Moscow News in an e-mail. “Things have faded away and I really think Russia has much more important economic issues to deal with. It seems quite likely we will have political certainty at least until 2018, which is probably a thing that foreign investors will appreciate.”

Economics in focus

The scheduled sessions reflect Tchakarov’s thoughts, with emphasis on Russia’s international and domestic economic policy. Spread out over the days of the forum, the major topics of the sessions fall under the broad themes of the global role of Russia, common policy in the post-Soviet space ­ including the Belarus-Kazakhstan-Russia Customs Union ­ historical models and their lessons for today, and technological development for Russia’s future.

Wednesday sees a focus on global challenges and their impact on Russia, addressing the questions of whether a common international macroeconomic policy is required to confront the economic crisis, and what position Russia has taken in an integrated world economy. In the afternoon, the forum will split into round tables and individual discussions on responses of the G20 to current economic issues and, particularly important for Russia, the management of resource revenues so as to avoid Dutch Disease.

Thursday’s sessions outline a more direct focus on Russia, with an analysis of its current role and its future ambitions in the world economy, and the development of Russia’s economy ­ especially in the regions ­ to place it more competitively on an international level. Development of banking, the Customs Union, the role of technology and the reform of agriculture come into the spotlight in the afternoon discussions, and three new Russian publications by the Gaidar Institute will be presented: translations of books by professors Gregory Clark and Robert Allen, and a new book by Professor Georgy Derlugyan.

As the economic crisis has focused attention in many Western countries on the impact of government policy on individuals, Friday’s theme will be “Competition for the person.” Topics for discussion include developments in health care and pharmaceuticals, health care reform, employment, climate change, and the assessment of business education.

Heavy hitters

While the forum may not be at the most climatically comfortable time in Moscow ­ a typically frigid January ­ the event is attracting its share of big names. Pascal Lamy, head of the World Trade Organization, is scheduled to attend, and Angel Gurria, secretary general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is to give the keynote address on Friday morning.

From the government, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev will be the lead attraction, but Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov are also expected, as is presidential adviser and former Economic Development Minister Elvira Naibullina.

The banking sector will be represented in part by deputy Central Bank chairman Alexei Ulyukayev, VTB’s Oleg Vyugin, Alfa Bank’s Pyotr Aven and Sberbank’s German Gref, with Rosnano chief Anatoly Chubais also slated to attend.

From academia, chairman of the board of trustees of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy Alexei Kudrin, and Niall Ferguson of Harvard University, Daniel Treisman of the University of California at Los Angeles, and Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, are expected.

For more information, please see www.gaidarforum.ru