#14 - JRL 8115 - JRL Home
excerpt
Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States
Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, U.S. Navy
Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Statement For the Record
Senate Armed Services Committee
26 February 2004

Russia. After nearly a decade of declining activity, the Russian military is beginning to exercise its forces in mission areas it believes are essential for deterrence, global reach and rapid reaction. Open source reporting confirms that ground force exercise activity in 2003 doubled that of 2002; training for use of non-strategic nuclear forces continues; and Russia desires to have the ability for its Navy and Air Force to operate globally, as evidenced in their joint exercises in the Indian and Pacific Oceans in 2003. Russian military spending has increased in real terms in the past four years, in line with its improving economy. Additionally, we expect modest increases in the procurement of new weapons. Improvements will continue unless Russia suffers an economic setback ­ especially a significant decrease in the price of oil. Moscow is attempting to reclaim great power status. Russian leaders believe an improving military supports its foreign policies and conveys the image of an active global power capable of asserting it national interests. It also supports the leaders’ domestic political position. Additionally, Russia is improving its relations with some countries, most notably France, China, and India, in pursuit of a “multi-polar” world and to enhance its arms sales.

Russian military leaders were surprised by OIF’s speed, effectiveness and low casualties, but not by the operation’s ultimate success. Proponents of Western-style military reforms believe the results demonstrate the need for change in the Russian armed forces. However, they face resistance from an entrenched bureaucracy and senior leaders with vested interests in the status quo. OIF reinforced previous Russian assessments of the need for precision strike capabilities and improved intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems. Russian military leaders recognize the need for more resources, but economic realities will prevent dramatic increases in military expenditures.

Russian leaders see OIF as an embodiment of US unilateralism and believe US actions have weakened the GWOT alliance. Despite these views, Russia voted in favor of several US backed UN Security Council Resolutions. Moscow believes the United Nations should have the lead in establishing an Iraqi government. They will also work to ensure Russian commercial access to post OIF Iraq and repayment of some of their loans to the previous Iraqi regime.

President Putin and other Russian leaders reacted calmly to the latest round of NATO enlargement and are working to improve relations within NATO. However, many maintain the traditional Russian fear of military encirclement, citing potential of US military rebasing and suspicions that Washington is not interested in ratifying the adopted Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty or extending it to the Baltic States. They will oppose Ukraine’s, Georgia’s and Azerbaijan’s efforts to join NATO.

The Chechen war continues after more than four years and is a drain on the Russian military. Moscow rejects negotiations to end the war, but has not been able to defeat the guerrillas. Approximately 65,000-75,000 Russian troops remain in Chechnya. Official casualties approach Soviet losses in Afghanistan. However, Chechnya remains a minor issue for most Russians and has not threatened President Putin politically. Nevertheless, Chechen extremists remain capable of headline-grabbing attacks in many areas of Russia.